Mao and Yu Na

[slutskayafan21]

What are you basing your figures on.

Meissner's 129 in the Worlds free skate last year, without the triple axel, is what I am basing my personal guess she beats Ando or Kim in the free skate if they all skate extremely well, although probably not Asada if she skates at her top level(especialy not in Japan).

 

[hongligl]

If Yu-na is healthy, I would predict she win everything in the near future.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

To Bring back the topic:

Does anyone think all Mao has on Yuna is a 3A? Mao without a 3A will not topple Yuna?

Joe

 

[SeaniBu]

To Bring back the topic:

Does anyone think all Mao has on Yuna is a 3A? Mao without a 3A will not topple Yuna?

Joe

The 3a and the 2 in one pro IMO is what she has on everyone. Without that...??? I'll let MM do the math but I would assume 2a s would not get the points to win with the dominance she has. Look at the NHK.

 

[Mathman]

I would assume 2a s would not get the points to win with the dominance she has. Look at the NHK.

Mao won NHK by 20 points. The difference between a triple Axel and a double Axel is 4.2 points. So if you attempt a triple Axel and double it, that's not necessarily a disaster by itself.

If you rotate the triple Axel but fall, you lose 4.0 points, so that's not necessarily so terrible either.

If you don't complete the rotations AND you fall, you lose the whole element (you receive only 0.2 points instead of 7.5)

But the worst thing that happens is that when you flub your 3A attempt, that effects the rest of your program, you make other mistakes, and it's hard to get back on track.

Mao has attempted the triple Axel in every long program this season, so you have to give her an A for effort.

Kimmie Meissner, on the other hand, omitted the triple Axel at Skate America, skated great and scored 118.96 in her LP.

At Eric Bompard, she attempted the 3A, fell, messed up some more, and ended up with only 105.47 points. So again, the 3A seems to be an all or nothing deal. Not just because of the points, but because of how it affects the rest of the program when you land it and when you don't.

Just my take.

 

[SeaniBu]

There I go assuming again 16.8 is still dominate.:agree:

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

There are the scores for Mao to go by, but they are highest when she skates her best. In Skate America, it was Miki, with a little bit of Kimmie thrown in; in the GPF it was Yuna. What happened to the scores there? Once you get your highest scores, does it say you will never go lower than that in future?

Once a skater has attained his personal best, does it mean that he no longer has a personal worst? Think Joubert. He's had both. Will he beat Oda on his personal best? will he lose to Oda on his personal worst?

The best one can predict in these events, where there are no shoo-ins like Evgeni, is to say Mao appears to be the favorite based on her recent scoes, and we'll see.

Joe

 

[Mathman]

But I think we can say one more thing. Of course, if one skater skates well and another skates poorly, the skater who skates the best will win.

But the advantage that Mao has is that if she lands all of her jumps she will accrue so many points that it will be hard for any other skater to overtake her, even if that other skater skates a personal best.

 

[R.D.]

But when was the last time TWO skaters skated lights out in a single competition? I get the impression it's a very rare occurrence. Typcially, if you skate your best you've won.

 

[Mathman]

But when was the last time TWO skaters skated lights out in a single competition?

Michelle Kwan and Chen Lu, 1996 Worlds.

 

[R.D.]

Ah. That was more than 10 years ago. I don't know but I would imagine you could probably count the number of times it's happened on your fingers.

Making mistakes is the norm rather than the exception. Irina skated her best in 2002 (worlds); she won. Shiz skated lights out in 04; she won. Irina skated lights out in 05; no one could touch her. Kimmie skated lights out in 06; she pulled off the upset with help from big mistakes from Suguri and Cohen.

 

[christinaskater]

Yu-Na Kim overall is the best skater out there!

Mao if she skates 7 triples with the 3lutz triple loop combination and the triple axel will win! If she does it clean

 

[floskate]

Why on earth would Mao drop the triple axel??? The reasons for so many misses this season have been IMO pressure and the brackets that she insists on putting before it. At every event she's been nailing them time and again in practice. I think the brackets was Mao's way of saying - look, this jump is nothing to me, nothing at all. How many men could do that jump from the same entrance? It's insanely difficult. I honestly think that now she has landed it, that particular monkey is off her back and she should be ok.

The whole Japanese dynasty of great ladies skaters has been built on advancing technical achievement. Since Midori almost every female skater worth her salt in Japan has aspired to land the triple axel. We've seen attempts from Onda, Nakano, Sawada, Mai Asada. Only Mao has managed to master it and perform it with any concistency.

We hear people bemoaning the fact that she doesn't do the salchow. I'd love to see her do it myself and complete the first 8 triple LP for a lady in major competition. But on the flip side of that - where are the rest of the girls triple axels?

 

[Mathman]

Why on earth would Mao drop the triple axel??? The reasons for so many misses this season have been IMO pressure and the brackets that she insists on putting before it. At every event she's been nailing them time and again in practice. I think the brackets was Mao's way of saying - look, this jump is nothing to me, nothing at all. How many men could do that jump from the same entrance?

In the Arutunian interview he talks about this. He said he put in the difficult entry just for that reason -- number one, she can do it, and number two, it's just spectacular when she does.

We hear people bemoaning the fact that she doesn't do the salchow. I'd love to see her do it myself and complete the first 8 triple LP for a lady in major competition.

This is just a rumor as far as I know, but some people are speculating that the reason Mao hasn't done a triple Salchow this year is that she is working on a quad Salchow and doesn't want to throw her timing off by practicing a triple Sal, too.

So let's see, once she gets it together her first four jumping passes will be 4S, 3A+3T, 3A and 3F+3Lo. It's a start, LOL.

 

[floskate]

In the Arutunian interview he talks about this. He said he put in the difficult entry just for that reason -- number one, she can do it, and number two, it's just spectacular when she does.This is just a rumor as far as I know, but some people are speculating that the reason Mao hasn't done a triple Salchow this year is that she is working on a quad Salchow and doesn't want to throw her timing off by practicing a triple Sal, too.

So let's see, once she gets it together her first four jumping passes will be 4S, 3A+3T, 3A and 3F+3Lo. It's a start, LOL.

Mao hasn't done a triple sal in competition to my knowledge since 2003 Nationals here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pq_0USiqef4

incorrectly labelled as 2004 but it's not. That year (2003) believe it or not Japanese Nationals weren't even televised!!

Of course she's been working on the quad sal for years - loads of footage of her attempting them in practice. Some just about rotated but on two feet. But I thought that she'd ditched practicing quads since moving to RA?

 

[Tinymavy15]

of course the triple axel is not everything. IF mao dosne't land it, or lands it and then messes up on somthing else, and Yu-Na sktes flawlessly, the Korean girl would probaly win. Look at the 2006 GPF and the 2006 junior worlds.

 

[emma]

So let's see, once she gets it together her first four jumping passes will be 4S, 3A+3T, 3A and 3F+3Lo. It's a start, LOL.

This cracked me up when I read it -- like sure; then I stopped laughing 'cuz you're talking about Mao, and she just might have a program that starts this way.

Anyway, whether she's working on the quad or not, whether she can or will ever do a salchow or not, her triple axel - particularly with the brackets first, is really stunning. The practice vid of her doing several just is amazing, like easy as pie. I don't love her LP this year, but as I believe MM noted somewhere, it may be that her team is trying to push her/get her out of a comfort zone to grow. But, I do love her short, and regardless her skills are impressive.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Oooh the things that go on in practice sessions.

I hope to be at US Nats and Worlds, and I will be looking for all these tricks that skaters have been working on. I guess if I don't see them, they will still be working on them for the Olys.

Joe

 

[emma]

Oooh the things that go on in practice sessions.

:

Joe

So true, so true - makes me want to send time just watching practices - if only Rohene Ward and a I fear many others like him could get points for practice...

 

[Yuunnaa<3]

I think Yuna really has a chance of winning, because if she does cleanly, and Mao cracks under pressure, then there is no comparison. Yuna is so graceful on the ice, and will get a much higher PCS score.