2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

[chuckm]

Alena Leonova did fine at Worlds (4th and 2nd) after twice finishing behind age-ineligible Adelina Sotnikova, so I don't think having a National champion who can't go to Worlds is a problem.

Sotnikova and Lipnitskaia were the start of the Russian wonderbaby surge. They were mopping up the medals in the JGP at the time and their performances were viewable to anyone who wanted to see them. If they were also topping their elders at Russian Nationals, no one would have been surprised.

That is nowhere near the current situation in US figure skating. Alysa Liu has competed internationally as an Advanced Novice skater. For the US ladies on the World team to be defeated by a Novice skater at US Nationals can't begin to compare to Leonova back then.

Anyway, I'm not convinced Alysa really does have the capability to deliver two clean programs while all the top age eligible contenders are likely to falter.
From what I have gathered, Alysa has had more failed 3a attempts than successful ones, and her lone 4z attempt was a failure.

 

[Mathman]

I don't see what the problem is. Let them skate. Suppose a wet-behind-the-ears novice beats the established seniors and the established seniors don't like it. Well, then, skate better.

If on the other hand, as is more likely, the newcomer falls far short of the mark, that's life, too. There's always next year.

 

[gkelly]

The ISU defines its competition levels by age, with some overlaps between adjacent age groups.

I think it's a mistake to think that there is a direct correlation between age and skill level and to dismiss skaters from consideration purely because they are younger, or older, than most of their direct national competitors.

In general girls' jumping ability tends to peak by mid-teens and younger skaters are more likely to be pushing the limits on jump content even if they haven't completely mastered the hardest content that they're trying. They're young, so anything seems possible if they keep trying.

In general skating skills, performance quality, and musical interpretation tend to improve after jumping ability has already peaked and may have started to decline.

But every individual is different. Different skaters start with different degrees of native talent in various areas and will have different training experiences and career trajectories before they reach senior Nationals and as their senior career develops. There are wide ranges in the ability of the below-average, average, and exceptional skaters in the 10-15, 13-18, and 15+ age ranges. Just knowing a skater's age and the fact that they are doing triple jumps (i.e., are in the elite tracks for their age group) doesn't tell you where they fall in the overall range of skill levels or how they compare to any other skater in a different age group. If they're entered in a competition that allows skaters of various ages who have met at least a minimum skill level, let them each skate and let the judges score what they actually do and how well they do it.

 

[Jammers]

Wait, what?? The US allows skaters who aren't even junior eligible yet to skate at senior nationals? I'm so lost.

Not sure why this is a surprise. Adelina Sotnikova won her first Russian Senior title at 12 and she wasn't even eligible to compete on the JGP for another 2 seasons. If Alysa wins Nationals it will be for the same reason Adelina won it means that the competition is dreadful in the US right now because remember Russian ladies were terrible a decade ago to allow a 12 year old to win their Senior ladies title.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

That is nowhere near the current situation in US figure skating. Alysa Liu has competed internationally as an Advanced Novice skater. For the US ladies on the World team to be defeated by a Novice skater at US Nationals can't begin to compare to Leonova back then.

Doing anything harder than a lutz combo is still a rare and remarkable feat for the women. The axel revived the careers of Liza and Mirai, and carried Mao to many titles. I think there's no shame in losing to a skater landing a 3A at any age.

 

[Skater Boy]

A triple axel for a woman is a big gun. If you can do it in the short you are more than double a head of those who do a double axel for the axel jump Alysa is still young and she could get better but she also could be like the Russian ladies and who knows what happens with puberty though I suspect her body type is more favorable for jumps than most Russians. Still she has not dominated juniors and she will need to be consistent on all jumps. It did not really revive the careers of Mirai or Liza it made their careers arguably. It is really exciting because we have no idea what is going on in the US. AT first it appeared the world was Bradie Tennell's and then there is a bit of doubt. Gracie Gold throws her name back in the ring - contender or pretender we do not know. Mirai and Ashley appear to be gone this year and maybe forever. Mariah gives us a sign of hope from the almost dead. Karen Chen is the mystery skater. Alyssa, Courtney, Starr, Angela are all there too - what excitement! I would say the only almost sure bet but then again think last year is Bradie. But ice is so slippery.

 

[Ice Dance]

From what I have gathered, Alysa has had more failed 3a attempts than successful ones.

Actually, I think this may be incorrect? Or very close to 50%? She hit 2 of three in more than one competition this summer. Ironically, she was hitting the one in combination in the free and the one in the short but missing the isolated one in the free.

At this point in the season, she has had more clean triple axels in competition than Bradie has had clean triple lutz triple loops.

If Alysa actually has not skated clean yet, then I am not sure why everyone is so convinced that she will need to in order to be competitive. I think that would very much depend on how the other ladies skated themselves. She had the 2nd highest summer score. Assuming the other posts here are correct and she hasn't skated clean yet, then she got that score without landing everything. (Also, exactly how many U.S. ladies have been skating clean? Hmm?) We all know it would not take 3 clean triple axels to win many a senior ladies event at any level of competition. We have a perfect example of it taking only one just last weekend. We also have an example of two messy ones and a few other glitches clenching the silver at last year's Nationals (though the system has changed). Rika Kihira earned 208.03 at last year's Japanese Nationals. That is the only competition I can think of in which a lady performed three clean triple axels outside of the 2010 Olympics. (Mao had 205.5 under that set of rules. Mao may have done it other times. That's just the one I remember).

I still think Alysa is probably most likely to just gain experience (and maybe a late season international in advanced novices) out of Nationals. But I'm for sure not underestimating the incredibleness of what she is attempting in her programs.

 

[figurefan0726]

Don’t forget Gracie! She might do really well!!

 

[princessalica]

Don’t forget Gracie! She might do really well!!

I just really want to see how she’s doing. I’m looking every where and no news. I want to be able just to skate for her, but it’s a cherry on top if she knocks one out of the park.

 

[moonvine]

Don’t forget Gracie! She might do really well!!

Yes! I would love that considering I am going to Detroit to see her (and Alexa and Chris and Jason). My hope is that she does well enough that SHE feels good about it though

 

[frida80]

Actually, I think this may be incorrect? Or very close to 50%? She hit 2 of three in more than one competition this summer. Ironically, she was hitting the one in combination in the free and the one in the short but missing the isolated one in the free.

At this point in the season, she has had more clean triple axels in competition than Bradie has had clean triple lutz triple loops.

If Alysa actually has not skated clean yet, then I am not sure why everyone is so convinced that she will need to in order to be competitive. I think that would very much depend on how the other ladies skated themselves. She had the 2nd highest summer score. Assuming the other posts here are correct and she hasn't skated clean yet, then she got that score without landing everything. (Also, exactly how many U.S. ladies have been skating clean? Hmm?) We all know it would not take 3 clean triple axels to win many a senior ladies event at any level of competition. We have a perfect example of it taking only one just last weekend. We also have an example of two messy ones and a few other glitches clenching the silver at last year's Nationals (though the system has changed). Rika Kihira earned 208.03 at last year's Japanese Nationals. That is the only competition I can think of in which a lady performed three clean triple axels outside of the 2010 Olympics. (Mao had 205.5 under that set of rules. Mao may have done it other times. That's just the one I remember).

I still think Alysa is probably most likely to just gain experience (and maybe a late season international in advanced novices) out of Nationals. But I'm for sure not underestimating the incredibleness of what she is attempting in her programs.

Not even close to 50%. Actually she's gotten only four called clean officially out of the 19 attempts. Four were popped, 8 under rotations and 3 step outs. This is not a consistent jump at all. Plus some of the ones called clean were questionable calls.

Do you see why I don't want people to get ahead of themselves? Do you see why I wish she'd focus more on improving her consistency than hiring Tom Dixon to improve her skating skills before nationals? Or before adding quads? Nationals is just a blip on the radar I wish her team was thinking further ahead when the tech controllers are harsher and her tech score drops like a rock because her 3A technique and quad technique just doesn't get the rotations she thinks it does.

Bradie has the larger summer score by a margin of 24 points. Just based on the fact that Alysa's highest scores normally involve a pop, even adding in that extra 3A won't make up the difference.

I'm all for increasing difficulty. But after all these years I know, it's all about the rotations. Hyping her and glossing over these glaring errors will just hurt her in the long run.

 

[Giselle]

This nationals is the perfect year for Alysa to attempt everything she is practicing. She has noting to lose : she is not competing for a world spot, nor a junior worlds spot.

Even if she bombs, what will happen? It will be a learning/humbling experience. What she could lose is JGP spots for next year...but if she shows up in form during the spring/summer no doubt she'll get JGPs.

 

[hippomoomin]

I think maybe I am the only person who does not care whether Alysa wins national or not. There are still a couple of months and anything can happen. I only care how she improves when her body grows in the next two years. If she wins this year and crumbles next year I don't see a victory. Probably I still have some doubt on her techniques because she has not participated in a competition with good camera work. She is just so tiny and her skating overall seems to be small right now (again, maybe it is the camera work)

 

[macy]

This nationals is the perfect year for Alysa to attempt everything she is practicing. She has noting to lose : she is not competing for a world spot, nor a junior worlds spot.

Even if she bombs, what will happen? It will be a learning/humbling experience. What she could lose is JGP spots for next year...but if she shows up in form during the spring/summer no doubt she'll get JGPs.

unless she really bombs summer competitions next year, i would say her JGP spots are already guaranteed no matter how she performs at nationals, especially if she attemps 3A and/or 4Lz. USFS will 100% want a skater who at least attempts those jumps on the junior international stage asap.

 

[chopinskate]

PCS were only 6.85.

How did you come up with this number? Not meaning to be shady, but x8 didn't give her PCS either

 

[frida80]

This nationals is the perfect year for Alysa to attempt everything she is practicing. She has noting to lose : she is not competing for a world spot, nor a junior worlds spot.

Even if she bombs, what will happen? It will be a learning/humbling experience. What she could lose is JGP spots for next year...but if she shows up in form during the spring/summer no doubt she'll get JGPs.

I'm not worried about her attempting these jumps or losing. I'm worried about her continuing to underrotated these jumps and not fixing it. I'm worried after she gets on the JGP and faces tech controllers that have seen jumps from Trusova and Rika and know how to judge them problem finally give her the bad calls that US callers wouldn't. I'm afraid that she's going to spend so much time trying to fix bad technique which is harder to do the longer you do it. Her team is letting her down as are the American judges that should be more objective. What I'm angry above is that it appears that she has made winning nationals more of a priority that perfecting her jumps.

unless she really bombs summer competitions next year, i would say her JGP spots are already guaranteed no matter how she performs at nationals, especially if she attemps 3A and/or 4Lz. USFS will 100% want a skater who at least attempts those jumps on the junior international stage asap.

She's not only guaranteed 2 JGP, Lake Placid was offered up to the ISU just for her. That's supposed to be her big debut and USFS return to "ladies dominance." If Eteri fields a few more quadsters and Japan another triple axel lady, this "return" will be pretty muted.

 

[gkelly]

She's not only guaranteed 2 JGP, Lake Placid was offered up to the ISU just for her.

Where does this information come from?

 

[MarinHondas]

Where does this information come from?

I'm wondering the same... if this is true... that's MONUMENTAL pressure to place on a 13 year old... my gosh.

 

[Mathman]

How did you come up with this number? Not meaning to be shady, but x8 didn't give her PCS either

It should have been 6.65. Sorry. I meant it to be the average of her five component scores, unfactored. Anyway, the point I was trying to make was that this performance by Meissner had so many technical errors that the PCS were dragged down, too.

By the way, this protocol shows the effect of the rounding conventions that were in place then. If you multiply each of Kimmie's component scores by 1.6, then round to the nearest hundredth, then add, you get a total PCS of 53.22.

If instead you add first and then multiply by 1.6 and round the total, you get 53.23.

No biggie, right? But that was the same competition (2008 U.S. Nationals) where Lysacek and Weir exactly tied at 244.77 points overall. Lysacek won the tie-breaker. But it was revealed that the software that did this summing and rounding was not actually programmed to follow the official ISU rules. Weir would have won with the other rounding convention.

 

[Mathman]

If Alysa actually has not skated clean yet, then I am not sure why everyone is so convinced that she will need to in order to be competitive. I think that would very much depend on how the other ladies skated themselves.

I do think that a clean performance benefits a newcomer more so than an established contender. If the novice falls the judges will tend to say, "Well, she's not quite ready yet," and her PCS will suffer from that perception.

I think that the seasoned veteran is more likely to get the benefit of the doubt: "Yes, she made some technical errrors, but we all know how good her skating skills and musical interpretation are."