Taking into account Worlds quotas, and assuming that Japan will have a stronger #3 team member than Russia:
1. Alina Zagitova—Untouchable if clean and probably near-clean, too. The PCS gap is too wide, at least for now.
2. Rika Kihira—She impressed me at IdF with her ability to think on her feet and keep going, despite setbacks in the short and the beginning of the free. She is a talent with competitive grit, just like Alina, and if her PCS grows over the season, then the match-up at Worlds will be exciting.
3. Satoko Miyahara—Contrary to expectations, she is thriving under the new scoring system. That said, I believe she has hit her ceiling in terms of scoring potential: even as the national champion, performing in Japan to the near-best of her abilities, she was unable to hold off Kihira and she nearly lost to Tuktamysheva. As she cannot realistically expect Zagitova, Kihira, and Tuktamysheva to all falter in the same competition, it is unlikely we will see her as World Champion, but she is doing everything right to secure a third medal.
4. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva—Virtually tied with Satoko, but I would give a slight edge to the former because her programs seem to leave a better overall impression on the judges. If Liza keeps increasing her technical content, though, it will be hard to deny her the medals. She could even rival Kihira and Zagitova.
5. Kaori Sakamoto/Mai Mihara/Wakaba Higuchi—As there are only three spots, and the first two feel more or less secured, I see whoever takes the #3 spot in this position. Right now, Sakamoto is the most likely candidate given her GPF participation and charisma, but Mihara with her steely consistency could take advantage if Kaori falters. As for Wakaba, she is still the reigning World Silver Medalist and could take the third spot with a lights-out performance at Japanese Nationals.
unlikely, but could grab a spot on the team: Marin Honda, Mako Yamashita, Yuna Shiraiwa
6. Evgenia Medvedeva/Sofia Samodurova/Stanislava Konstantinova—In the midst of this "Evgenia is done" discourse, everybody seems to be ignoring the elephant in the room, which is that, while it may be decreasing, Evgenia's PCS is still huge. Obviously it won't save her if she performs the way she did this weekend, but if she is anywhere near her usual form at Russian Nats, then I think the Fed would be wise to send her to the big competitions. Samodurova, for all her consistency, simply does not have the reputation cushion a flawed Medvedeva has. That said, it is Sonia and not Zhenia who is going to GPF, and if the former delivers and the latter falters, then Samodurova is the most viable candidate for the #3 spot. After these two, Konstantinova seems the most likely contender; she has the potential to score well internationally, but her instability will likely cost her another trip to Worlds.
unlikely, but could grab a spot on the team: Anna Tarusina, Maria Sotskova, Alena Leonova, Polina Tsurskaya, Anastasiia Gubanova
7. Bradie Tennell—I just do not see Bradie breaking through to the top 5 this season, not with these programs and not with her technical problems. However, if IdF showed us anything, it is that she has a fighting spirit and should not be counted out.
8. Eunsoo Lim—Possibly getting hyped too early, but she really does have the X factor for a top-10 finish.....and higher if others falter
9. Elizabet Tursynbaeva—I thought she would challenge for top 5 earlier in the season, but she did not deliver on the Grand Prix. It's still early, though.
10. Loena Hendrickx—This wasn't the GP experience Loena wanted, but hopefully she can rally for the podium at Euros and finish out the season with a solid top 10 finish at Worlds. Her SB from Nebelhorn has actually held up very well, so she might surprise us.
11. Mariah Bell/Karen Chen—Bell is the clear front-runner for spot #2 on the Worlds team, but if Karen competes and has a strong showing at Talinn and then podiums at Nationals, USFS might send her instead. Whoever it is, top 10 is realistically the best they can hope for, and it will require a strong performance on their part.
12-18, no particular order: Viveca Lindfors/Emmi Peltonen, Alexia Paganini, Mae Berenice Meite/Laurine Lecavalier, Kailani Craine, Alaine Chartrand, Larkyn Austman, Alicia Pineault
Total Question Marks
Carolina Kostner
Gabrielle Daleman
LOL
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, successful triple axel or not. She has such grace and elegance. I actually feel something when she skates. It's not just a series of difficult transitions and unfinished moves mixed in with incoherent music cuts, interspersed with broken glass sound effects. I feel that Rika is underscored in PCS. Hopefully, the judges give her some more respect later in the season.
