I can tell you just my perspective on that. It may or may not has anything to do with the reality.
Zhenya used to be the embodiment of consistency for several seasons. Even recovering from an injury she showed 2 terrific performances during the OG. Hence, what came after that might be a very hard transition to a new reality. But it is half a year now since she started with Borser. There were glimpse of hope already. If she shows that she is "skating business" during Cup of Russia it will be a good indicator that we can expect her strong performance in Japan as well.
Liza, on the other hand, had only 1 strong season: 2014-15. After that she was the embodiment of inconsistency. She had a very strong start this season but we don't know if this streak is going to continue. She had a weak outing in Slovenia. If she has the second weak outing in a roll, chances are high that the worlds won't be different.
Zhenya, Liza higher than 200 with Zhenya more than 5 points ahead - Zhenya, less than 5 points ahead - Liza
Zhenya, Liza both lower than 190 with Stasya above 200 - Stasya
There could be scenarios where the outcome of the 3rd spot quest is very difficult to foresee like: Stasya 201, Zhenya 198, Liza 193
Liza had a weak outing at Bavarian Open before winning Worlds in 2015, scores at these events mean very little, especially for Mishin who uses those merely as tests to prepare his athletes, rather than expecting clean performances all the time.
I also disagree with your statement that she only had one strong season: she was very strong in 2011-12 and 2012-13.
Then 16-17 if you actually go back and watch her programs she skated clean most of the time, it's just judges didn't want to give her high marks anymore for some reason. 17-18 also she was underscored at the first GP event despite clean and bombed the second.
This season she was always on the podium, unlike Medvedeva and Konstantinova.
So her fight was more on getting back that status, and judges made it clear the 3A is now giving her an edge, without that she is not a top skater, but with the 3A, she can score higher than any of the russians, something you can't really say about Medvedeva right now.
And not to take away anything from the other skaters, i like all 3 of them, but RusFed needs to be realistic:
- Stasya always bombed one of the two programs except at Nationals, with the level of competition you have right now, there is no chance you can medal that way.
- Zhenya needs to skate super clean programs at the Cup Final because she has been struggling all season, and understandably so given the big change she is dealing with.
I don't think Federation should put that much pressure on Liza on doing these many events (right before Worlds): we are talking about an athlete who just recovered from illness, you should support it rather than expecting clean performances immediately.
I'm worried some influential people will push Liza out, not because of merits but only because they like Stanislava or Evgenia more (and they'll do that by overscoring at Cup Final) and that is just a very unprofessional way of handling things, that could potentially damage Russia's three spots considering Zagitova is also in a bad shape right now and she could bomb again at Worlds, so Russia needs another podium contender.