The Grand Prix Strategy

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I believe from reviewing last season that skaters interested in making the Finals must have at least one Gold in one of the events, and probably at least a Silver in the other. Bronzes don't work. (Ask Kimmie)

It seems to me that skaters do not rush to pick China and Russia because of travel unless their travelling is not that far from the venues.

I also believe that Skate America is an easy pick for top skater(s) to earn a Gold. Except for Belbin and Agosto, there is no threat in the other divisions. And for Singles, there are top skaters already training in N.America and to go to SA or SC would not be a problem, and both venues are vulnerable to skaters of their respective nationalities. However, Virtue and Moir could pull an upset in SC but if Denk/Stav reappear in SA, that will be the gold.

I would suggest that Kimmie and Emily stay out of Paris (Everyone wants to go to Paris) and stay out of SA. SC wil probably have Yu Na and no gold for anyone else. The Amercians can use Zhang and Nagasu in SA to test the waters.

Johnny and Evan should stay out of any event that has Joubert, Daisuke and Lambiel in it. If he skates it is almost certain that Plush will win CoR.

This is not a prediction thread. Just an expectation of using Strategy.

Ladies GP- Mao (SA); Yu Na (SC); Kimmie (CoC); Mao (NHK); YuNa (Paris); Miki (CoR)

Too tired to do the other disciplines but you get the drift of what I mean by strategy.

Joe

 

[debdelilah]

I believe from reviewing last season that skaters interested in making the Finals must have at least one Gold in one of the events, and probably at least a Silver in the other. Bronzes don't work. (Ask Kimmie)

It seems to me that skaters do not rush to pick China and Russia because of travel unless their travelling is not that far from the venues.

I also believe that Skate America is an easy pick for top skater(s) to earn a Gold. Except for Belbin and Agosto, there is no threat in the other divisions. And for Singles, there are top skaters already training in N.America and to go to SA or SC would not be a problem, and both venues are vulnerable to skaters of their respective nationalities. However, Virtue and Moir could pull an upset in SC but if Denk/Stav reappear in SA, that will be the gold.

I would suggest that Kimmie and Emily stay out of Paris (Everyone wants to go to Paris) and stay out of SA. SC wil probably have Yu Na and no gold for anyone else. The Amercians can use Zhang and Nagasu in SA to test the waters.

Johnny and Evan should stay out of any event that has Joubert, Daisuke and Lambiel in it. If he skates it is almost certain that Plush will win CoR.

This is not a prediction thread. Just an expectation of using Strategy.

Ladies GP- Mao (SA); Yu Na (SC); Kimmie (CoC); Mao (NHK); YuNa (Paris); Miki (CoR)

Too tired to do the other disciplines but you get the drift of what I mean by strategy.

Joe

Joe, I don't think they can strategize to this extent, because of the ISU rules that govern the top 6 finishers in each division at Worlds. Each event is supposed to have one of the top three finishers at Worlds and one of three who placed 4-6 in Worlds. Evan in fifth place and Kimmie in fourth are both seeded skaters.

 

[Tinymavy15]

dosen't the ISI decide f or the skaters what events they go to. Unless of injury or some other delay, then the skaters have no other choice but the last event etc.

 

[PolymerBob]

"The Grand Prix Strategy " Skate better than everyone else.

I don't know if it always works out this easy, but last year, the 6 girls who went to the GP were simply the top 6 girls at Nationals after Sasha.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I believe the host country can select their own skaters. Then the host country can accept or deny others. You have to realize the host country wants to make a profit on this or at least break even. If, for example, Kimmie skates SA, I am sure the USFS will accept Mao if she applies. There would be profit in this group.

However, I do not know if top skaters can apply or not for events not of their nationality. Why are there envelopes if the ISU selects the skaters?

What exactly is the ISU selection process on this?

I don't want to read that a host country can pick a third skater. We all know that. I would like to know who picks the other two?

If the whole thing is run by the ISU, then there is no strategy in where a skater is seeded.

Joe

 

[Sylvia]

Why are there envelopes if the ISU selects the skaters?

The U.S. team envelopes (A-C) are strictly about USFS' funding levels -- they don't have anything to do with the ISU's Grand Prix selection process.

What exactly is the ISU selection process on this?

I posted the following reply in the Skate America thread earlier today:

Are there any special rules as to who can get invited?

Yes. Theatregirl1122 has compiled an unofficial list of all the skaters/teams who would be guaranteed GP events under LAST year's rules at FSU -- see: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=49319&page=2

The ISU has not yet published this year's GP selection rules. Last year's rules can be viewed in the 2006-07 GP Announcement at:
http://www.isu.org/vsite/vfile/page/fileurl/0,11040,4844-176029-193247-107503-0-file,00.pdf

ETA: A person who seems to be "in the know" posted at FSU that "June 5 is the date when the representatives of 6 GP Federations will meet in San Francisco to distribute the skaters for Senior GP events."

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

The U.S. team envelopes (A-C) are strictly about USFS' funding levels -- they don't have anything to do with the ISU's Grand Prix selection process.

Thank you Sylvia. I knew that but keep linking it to GPs. Dumb!

The ISU has not yet published this year's GP selection rules. Last year's rules can be viewed in the 2006-07 GP Announcement at:
http://www.isu.org/vsite/vfile/page/fileurl/0,11040,4844-176029-193247-107503-0-file,00.pdf

ok. That was a refresher read that I needed, but did I miss how they assign the skaters which are eligible for GP events? What I want to know do the skaters have any say in which event they want to attend? For example, who will decide the two singles/couples for the Cup of China?

Joe

 

[alessandro]

But this year..for example..
if there are any top retirements from to top 6..the next priority will be given to the topx six of..worlds championship 2006?

 

[attyfan]

... ok. That was a refresher read that I needed, but did I miss how they assign the skaters which are eligible for GP events? What I want to know do the skaters have any say in which event they want to attend? For example, who will decide the two singles/couples for the Cup of China?

Joe

I don't know if this is current or not, but at one time, it was the federations -- and skaters who wanted to compete at a specific event had to ask their federations to get them there. For example, after GPF in 2000 (where Irina first defeated Michelle), Irina wanted to go up against Michelle more often -- so she had to ask the Russian federation to get her into SC so she could do so.

 

[gkelly]

That helps for skaters who represent one of the six Grand Prix countries, especially those who are important enough that their federations would be willing to do them favors. A lot depends on how the draws work out for which federations get to choose each round of picks in which order. But at least if there's a federation representative doing the selection, they can take the skater's request into consideration

But if, say, Stephane Lambiel or Yu-Na Kim has a preference as to which Grand Prixs they would like to do, there isn't anyone from their own federations who has any input into the Grand Prix selections. The best they could do would be to drop hints to the federations hope will choose them. E.g., "I love skating for Canadian audiences . . . "

(And the way the seeding is done now, and without third events except for pairs, it's no longer an option for the number one and number two skaters from Worlds within a discipline to go up against each other in the Grand Prix, until the final assuming they both qualify.)

 

[chuckm]

I don't know if this is current or not, but at one time, it was the federations -- and skaters who wanted to compete at a specific event had to ask their federations to get them there. For example, after GPF in 2000 (where Irina first defeated Michelle), Irina wanted to go up against Michelle more often -- so she had to ask the Russian federation to get her into SC so she could do so.

The rules for GP selection were very different then. Skaters had some say as to which events they could attend. The new selection rules make that impossible, especially with seeded skaters. #1 through #3 seeds can NEVER face one another in a GP event. Every event has one #1-#3 seed and ibe #4-#6 seed. But that means that Kimmie Meissner MUST face Ando, Asada and/or Kim in both of her events, which may also mean that once again, no gold medal, and she may not make the GPF.

 

[dancindiva03]

But that means that Kimmie Meissner MUST face Ando, Asada and/or Kim in both of her events, which may also mean that once again, no gold medal, and she may not make the GPF.

That does not necessarily mean no gold medals for Kimmie! Ando, as much as I am a huge fan of hers and I am so glad she won Worlds this year, she is not always a consistant skater. I hope that she is able to keep her consistency for many more years to come, but that may not happen. And we saw that both Asada and Kim are capable of making costly errors, as they did at Worlds. If those three skate totally clean, then yes, Kimmie might be in trouble, but no skater is perfect all the time, and Kimmie is always ready when opportunity knocks.

 

[chuckm]

True---but Kimmie may not draw Ando as an opponent. She could just as easily get Asada twice.

 

[dancindiva03]

True---but Kimmie may not draw Ando as an opponent. She could just as easily get Asada twice.

And like I said, we've seen that neither Asada nor Kim had perfect seasons, they have shown that they do make mistakes. Kimmie could face Asada twice and quite possibly beat her twice. I'm not PREDICTING that she will, but I am not counting her out.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I would suggest that Kimmie and Emily stay out of Paris (Everyone wants to go to Paris) and stay out of SA. SC wil probably have Yu Na and no gold for anyone else. The Amercians can use Zhang and Nagasu in SA to test the waters.

Johnny and Evan should stay out of any event that has Joubert, Daisuke and Lambiel in it. If he skates it is almost certain that Plush will win CoR.

This is not a prediction thread. Just an expectation of using Strategy.

Ladies GP- Mao (SA); Yu Na (SC); Kimmie (CoC); Mao (NHK); YuNa (Paris); Miki (CoR)

Too tired to do the other disciplines but you get the drift of what I mean by strategy.

Joe

I think it would be silly to have Evan, Kimmie, and Johnny avoid the big guns during the GP season. There is no point being scared to have them face off with them now, in order to protect the points to get into the GP final, when the are going to have to face them later in the season at Worlds anyway.

 

[euterpe]

Skaters can't avoid anything or anyone. The host federations pick them and set up the competitions the way they want. Actually, the federation who has first pick (by draw) has the ability to determine how that competition will unfold. The last federation to pick has to settle for the skaters that are left.

The skaters themselves have no say at all as to where they are going to skate outside of their own home country (if that is a host federation). It has to be a bummer for skaters/teams to find themselves at back-to-back events in far away places.

 

[Sylvia]

It appears that the reigning U.S. national champs can make requests to USFS regarding their Skate America assignments -- for example, Belbin/Agosto (this past season) and Johnny Weir (reportedly the last few seasons) requested that they not be assigned to 2006 Skate America and their requests were granted.

 

[mizu_iro]

And like I said, we've seen that neither Asada nor Kim had perfect seasons, they have shown that they do make mistakes. Kimmie could face Asada twice and quite possibly beat her twice. I'm not PREDICTING that she will, but I am not counting her out.

Yu-Na's made big mistakes at every comp this season (GPF was the cleanest but she omitted a 3T due to a 2A step-out) and she's managed to get onto the podium at every one of them. Her GOE has always patched up the mistakes, and her PCS, which shot up into the stratosphere at Worlds, will help her even more next year. And Mao's PCS will probably stay extremely high as well.

 

[Mathman]

I think it would be silly to have Evan, Kimmie, and Johnny avoid the big guns during the GP season. There is no point being scared to have them face off with them now, in order to protect the points to get into the GP final, when the are going to have to face them later in the season at Worlds anyway.

I completely agree with this point of view. If your "strategy" is to sneak around hoping to get in the back door without competing against anyone, what's the point?

Kimmie should be saying (like Irina did about Michelle), oh, boy, I hope I get a chance to knock Mao and Yu-na off the pedestal a couple of times this fall!

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

And like I said, we've seen that neither Asada nor Kim had perfect seasons, they have shown that they do make mistakes. Kimmie could face Asada twice and quite possibly beat her twice. I'm not PREDICTING that she will, but I am not counting her out.

The purpose of this thread is give dummies like me on how the skaters are selected for their two GPs. Hoping skaters to win should be on another thread.

Thanks attnfan - I did think the skaters had a voice in this but apparently it's up to pressure by their Federations towards the ISU.

thanks, too Chuckum. Apparently. One has to get high scores to break any ties which will happen.

Joe