ISU announcement about Grand Prix

[sorcerer]

Yes, the two-panels idea is dead in the water. It was tried experimentally at one event last year and nobody in the ISU liked it well enough to continue testing.

Dead?! Good grief and a big sigh. hwell:
If it's not secret, won't you tell me in which event this experiment took place?

This may be of a wrong thread, but I've been viewing this forum as a visitor for several months and found many posts suggesting some upgrading in objectivity of the current PCS.
I myself find the PCS rather reasonable in its intention, well-thought as a system, but vulnerable to judges' preconceptions and abbreviations in scoring labour.

I havn't watched the last year's Worlds, but have the FS-PCS as:

Sasha COHEN.......61.35
Fumie SUGURI......60.29
Kimmie MEISSNER...60.23
Elena SOKOLOVA....57.94
Joannie ROCHETTE..56.29
Yukari NAKANO.....55.15
Susanna POYKIO....52.88
Carolina KOSTNER..52.79
Sarah MEIER.......52.75
Emily HUGHES......51.49
Kiira KORPI.......50.10

Whereas this year:

Mao ASADA.........63.49
Yu-Na KIM.........61.64 (my favorite)
Kimmie MEISSNER...59.77
Miki ANDO.........59.45 (a great fan of)
Carolina KOSTNER..57.27
Yukari NAKANO.....54.74
Sarah MEIER.......52.98
Emily HUGHES......52.39
Alissa CZISNY.....51.65
Susanna POYKIO....51.49
Joannie ROCHETTE..50.39
Elena SOKOLOVA....50.36 (my favorite)
Kiira KORPI.......50.18

There are big gaps for Kostner, Rochette and Sokolova, but the others seem to be settled somewhere around the last year's results (if attended both 06 and 07).
Is this consistency or is it preconception?

Or is there a "benchmark" skater to facilitate placing the relativity between skaters?
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Miles to go.

 

[Mathman]

If it's not secret, won't you tell me in which event this experiment took place?

The 2006 Nebelhorn Trophy. It's not secret, but the ISU did not release any details of the committee's deliberations.

Here is the council summary (article 4, page 2)

http://www.isu.org/vsite/vfile/page/fileurl/0,11040,4844-179058-196276-113507-0-file,00.pdf

There is a lengthy discussion of some of the points that you have raised on this thread (now on page two of the Edge):

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?t=16428

 

[dancindiva03]

Do you think Drei, Hawker, Mai, Glebova, etc. have a better shot at Sr.GP than Flatt? It just may be a question of prestige. However it is in the hands of the USFS to pick the three for SA which I believe is the only senior GP that Flatt could possibly make.

For Skate America and Skate Canada, I believe will be divided between Meissner and Hughes. Who will be picked for the two vacancies at SA is the question.

Which two would you pick (anyone) from this list: Flatt, Czisny, Liang, Taylor, Zhang, Mirai?

Joe

I don't necessarily think that the above-mentioned skaters would fare better than Flatt at GP, though I think ALL of them are better in the performance aspect than Flatt is. I find her really lacking in that department. But, none of those skaters are really expected to do well against the seeded skaters anyway, which is my point. Flatt could do SA and finish middle of the pack, or she could do JGP events and quite possibly medal at all of them and make the JGPF. Her one advantage over those other ladies would be her jumps IF she can land them all cleanly.

If we assumed that either Meissner or Hughes would be at SA, I would probably pick BeBe and Katy as the other two skaters. Like I said before, I would send Mirai to JGP so she wouldn't even be an option. Zhang IIRC would already be guaranteed at least one GP event anyway, right? So she doesn't NEED USFSA to give her a spot. So I'd give a spot to Katy because she did so poorly last season that i don't think she'll get any other events, but at the same time she looked to at least be on the right track back at nationals even though her LP didn't end up as she would have liked. I think she deserves another chance and hopefully she has all her problems under control now. BeBe I picked just because she's such a dynamic little skater and is fun to watch.

 

[Mathman]

My understanding was that [Michelle Kwan] was concerned about the pressure of going to 1993 Nationals expected to win a junior medal and preferred to fly under the radar in seniors that year.

Wow, what an interesting insight. The incident is usually reported in the spirit of the plucky, headstrong, "Nobody Puts Baby in the Corner" young Michelle determined to charge into the fray devil-may-care.

So you are saying that, on the contrary, this was a well considered strategy move on the part of Kamp Kwan?

 

[gkelly]

It's just something I had heard somewhere, I really don't know the details of what was going on in Kwan's life in 1992 (or any year, for that matter).

Anyway, the comparison to Kwan testing up to seniors for 1993 would be comparable to Flatt testing up to seniors for 2007. She already did it, she had a similar result at Nationals, it's past history for both of them.

The decision (Flatt's and/or the USFSA's) whether she should compete at Skate America or on the JGP this fall would be comparable to the decision whether Kwan should have skated at Skate America or, say, Blue Swords Trophy in fall 1993. Neither was part of an organized series at that time, but there was really nothing for Kwan or the USFSA to gain by having her compete at a junior international. For Flatt there is (prize money and points toward ISU world ranking, more than she could get on the senior GP, because of the JGP series and the opportunity to compete in two events plus possibly the final as opposed to just Skate America).

As for Junior Worlds, that's still an option for Flatt next year and obviously was for Kwan for the 1994 season . . . and so was senior Worlds, which is not an option for Flatt in 08 because of the different age rules.

 

[chuckm]

Rachael Flatt needs to get decent competition scores this season in order to get GP invites for 2008-2009. Starting right out at Skate America, where she will almost certainly finish in the lower half of the competition, is a bad idea. Rachael scored very well in the one "B" International she where she competed this season (and won), and I think she will do very, very well in the JGP. She can win medals in the JGP and likely a trip to the JGPF, which would guarantee her at least one GP invitation the following year.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Well, I am of the opinion, that figure skaters improve over time!

Whether Flatt skates GPs or JGPs, she will be a better skater than she was this past Nationals. How much better varies with the training and that innate feel for glory.

Joe

 

[Jimmy Hoffa]

My understanding was that she was concerned about the pressure of going to 1993 Nationals expected to win a junior medal and preferred to fly under the radar in seniors that year.

Wow, what an interesting insight. The incident is usually reported in the spirit of the plucky, headstrong, "Nobody Puts Baby in the Corner" young Michelle determined to charge into the fray devil-may-care.

So you are saying that, on the contrary, this was a well considered strategy move on the part of Kamp Kwan?

It's just something I had heard somewhere, I really don't know the details of what was going on in Kwan's life in 1992 (or any year, for that matter).

Kwan wrote in her book that her goal was to make the 1994 Olympic team and she had to make it to 1993 Nationals in order to put herself out there in time, so that is the version I will stick with.

 

[sorcerer]

...but the ISU did not release any details of the committee's deliberations.
Here is the council summary (article 4, page 2)
There is a lengthy discussion of some of the points that you have raised on this thread (now on page two of the Edge):

Thank you for your kind info. Excuse me for not having read the pages 2 and 3 of that thread, I surely missed the important part! I will quit my habbit of catching the theme on page 1 and then rushing to the most recent.

As for the Japanese skaters in GP series, is there a way to ensure 2 events for each and all of Suguri, Sawada, Takeda and Mai(Asada)?
It seems to me like if the draw is in its literal sense and happens by chance to come out like Mao, Ando and Nakano all going to the NHK, none of the other four would get 2 events unless some host federation(s) kindly select them to compete.

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Miles to go.

 

[chuckm]

Thank you for your kind info. Excuse me for not having read the pages 2 and 3 of that thread, I surely missed the important part! I will quit my habbit of catching the theme on page 1 and then rushing to the most recent.

As for the Japanese skaters in GP series, is there a way to ensure 2 events for each and all of Suguri, Sawada, Takeda and Mai(Asada)?
It seems to me like if the draw is in its literal sense and happens by chance to come out like Mao, Ando and Nakano all going to the NHK, none of the other four would get 2 events unless some host federation(s) kindly select them to compete.

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Miles to go.

Here are the ISU World Rankings/Season's Best Rankings for each of the Japanese skaters you mentioned:

SUGURI 11th/5th - she is guaranteed one event, since she finished top 24 on both ranking lists. Fumie is pretty sure to get 2 events as she is a world-class skater, despite not making the 2007 World team.
SAWADA 14th/16th - she is guaranteed one event, since she finished top 24 on both ranking lists. Aki finished 4th at 4CC 2007 and she has a fairly good chance of getting two GP events (she got two events last year with lower rankings).
TAKEDA 18th/45th - she is guaranteed one GP event because she was in the top 24 on the World Ranking list. She still has one year of JGP eligibility.
MAI ASADA 25th/28th - not guaranteed any GP event. She did get one event last season, then got a second event as a substitute for a withdrawn skater.

Takeda (if she opts out of the JGP) could get a second event, either by initial assignment or by substitution. Mai Asada could get an initial assignment if all the guaranteed skaters have assignments and there are still vacancies. She probably would have to depend on a withdrawal to get a second event. However, there are ALWAYS withdrawals, so her chances are still pretty good.

 

[sorcerer]

...Fumie is pretty sure to get 2 events as she is a world-class skater, despite not making the 2007 World team.
...Aki finished 4th at 4CC 2007 and she has a fairly good chance of getting two GP events (she got two events last year with lower rankings).
TAKEDA...could get a second event, either by initial assignment or by substitution.
MAI...However, there are ALWAYS withdrawals, so her chances are still pretty good.

Thank you.
As to Mai, I interpreted 25th as 24th since Onda retired.
Anyway, in what kind of a manner would a skater, who is guranteed only one event, get an initial assignment for the second? Do they or their agents lobby/ negotiate for it?

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Miles to go.

 

[Sylvia]

As for the Japanese skaters in GP series, is there a way to ensure 2 events for each and all of Suguri, Sawada, Takeda and Mai(Asada)?
It seems to me like if the draw is in its literal sense and happens by chance to come out like Mao, Ando and Nakano all going to the NHK, none of the other four would get 2 events unless some host federation(s) kindly select them to compete.

Mao Asada, Ando and Nakano are all seeded skaters (top 6 at 2007 Worlds) -- I don't believe it's possible for all 3 of them to be drawn for/compete at NHK Trophy under the current rules? See hockeyfan228's explanatory post about the GP selection draw at:
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?p=243373#post243373

Nana Takeda may likely return to the JGP for her last season of junior eligibility instead of moving up to the Sr. GP (unless she ups her jump content - she succesfully landed triples up to loop last season).

 

[Mathman]

But NHK could reserve one of {Ando, Asada} and Nakano and any other Japanese skater of their choice, seeded or not, right?

But this might run counter to Joe's strategy of not knocking out your own teammates in the race for the finals.

I wonder if national federations make deals and trade draft choices, like the National Football League. NHK approaches Skate America with a deal like this: "We know Skate Canada, picking ahead of you, is going to grab Fumie. If we reserve her, too, then you guys are out of luck. But if you promise not to reserve Alissa, so she's still in the pot when we draft fourth, then we will let you have Fumie."

 

[euterpe]

MM, I think there are lots of deals such as you describe.

How else were there 3 Japanese ladies at Skate America 2006 (Mao, Mai and Miki)? Maybe because NHK agreed not to pick Kimmie for NHK, and to invite Zukowski?

 

[sorcerer]

See hockeyfan228's explanatory post about the GP selection draw at:
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?p=243373#post243373

Thanks again. (I think you are refering to debdelilah rather than hockeyfan...)

I can't compare the GP rule 07/08 to 06/07, since the URL which Mathman kindly pasted on page 3 of that thread is no longer online.
However, regardless of what the annoucement 07/08 literally says, maybe one should imagine things would go similar to those of the past few years, such as "1-3 first then 4-6".

Having learned what's happening is the "draw"ing of the order of the federations, which is not what the annoucement makes a biginner like me imagine, the drawing of the seeded skaters (such as by number), my worries are a little less. :scratch:

Still I'd be sorry for skaters invited only once and denied equal chance to challenge for the Final from the start, I don't want that to happen to Aki and Mai.

Invited Skaters (7-12 at worlds) aren't said "by draw", so from 7 downwards I should imagine there's no "picking order" among the feds, so it's as if the ISU annoucement is clearly declaring the existence of negotiations for non seeded skaters.

Is it wrong to imagine that a federation with numerous skaters would want to take the least of the seeds and/or the 7-12 from their own country, also try to make the others pick its "one eventer"s, so that it can fully use its host-country's 3 skater frame to make the "one eventer"s become "two eventer"s?

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Miles to go.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

MM, I think there are lots of deals such as you describe.

How else were there 3 Japanese ladies at Skate America 2006 (Mao, Mai and Miki)? Maybe because NHK agreed not to pick Kimmie for NHK, and to invite Zukowski?

And all that blasting I was getting for mentioning strategy. Jeez.

 

[satorare]

There is a theory that Skate America simply grabbed Mao from TEB.
That's why there was only one Japanese (Ando) there.

 

[chuckm]

Thanks again. (I think you are refering to debdelilah rather than hockeyfan...)

I can't compare the GP rule 07/08 to 06/07, since the URL which Mathman kindly pasted on page 3 of that thread is no longer online.
However, regardless of what the annoucement 07/08 literally says, maybe one should imagine things would go similar to those of the past few years, such as "1-3 first then 4-6".

Having learned what's happening is the "draw"ing of the order of the federations, which is not what the annoucement makes a biginner like me imagine, the drawing of the seeded skaters (such as by number), my worries are a little less. :scratch:

Still I'd be sorry for skaters invited only once and denied equal chance to challenge for the Final from the start, I don't want that to happen to Aki and Mai.

Invited Skaters (7-12 at worlds) aren't said "by draw", so from 7 downwards I should imagine there's no "picking order" among the feds, so it's as if the ISU annoucement is clearly declaring the existence of negotiations for non seeded skaters.

Is it wrong to imagine that a federation with numerous skaters would want to take the least of the seeds and/or the 7-12 from their own country, also try to make the others pick its "one eventer"s, so that it can fully use its host-country's 3 skater frame to make the "one eventer"s become "two eventer"s?

http://www.usfigureskating.org/Story.asp?id=25740&type=news

Above is the USFS article that explains the Grand Prix selection procedure.

The basic procedure remains the same, although the criteria for eligibility has changed quite a bit:

1. Only Pairs can do 3 events
2. Step 4 'ISU World Ranking System' now applies only to the top 24 on that list; after that, the top 24 on the Seasons Best list applies. .
3. Step 5 'Host Country choices' is no longer "any skater" but must be selected from the top 75 on the Seasons Best list.

 

[Nigel]

Rachael Flatt needs to get decent competition scores this season in order to get GP invites for 2008-2009. Starting right out at Skate America, where she will almost certainly finish in the lower half of the competition, is a bad idea. Rachael scored very well in the one "B" International she where she competed this season (and won), and I think she will do very, very well in the JGP. She can win medals in the JGP and likely a trip to the JGPF, which would guarantee her at least one GP invitation the following year.

It isn't just about her IJS scores, it is also about medalling at events. Flatt would be well served to do the JGP series this year, as many have pointed out...she was hurt last year, missed the JGP series (and also had to recover and go through USFS qualifying events here in the US to Natls) and has no ISU ranking. End of story.

So, she moves on, does the JGP series this year and hopefully does well enough to gain ISU ranking, and good IJS scores in her events. Counting back from her injury in September, she had to work 5 months to get back to where she was prior to her injury, so perhaps she was a little behind the curve as compared to some of the other skaters at US Nationals. But, her 7 triple performance at her spring intl event seems to indicate that her back has healed completely. We would expect her to keep improving, and having heard through the grapevine that Lori Nichol is doing her long program this season,(IIRC, Lori did her SP last season), Flatt should do just fine this season in the JGP series.

Re-reading some of the prior posts in this thread, I am not sure that the thoughts about Flatt moving up to Senior were comparable to Kwan testing Sr at age 12, with the age restriction that are in place now....Kwan had the door open to her when she moved up to Sr. Flatt knew that when she tested up to Sr last year, that she was limited internationally. But, at the same time, she had won Novice, finished 2nd as a Jr the season just prior, so what else was left for her? Perhaps the Flatt /Zakrajsek team was looking at the challenges ahead, rather than staying back in Jr one more season. It wouldn't have changed anything Internationally for her...she still would be three weeks too young to do Sr. Why not test the waters at Sr domestically. Which is what they did. I still think Zakrajsek wanted to get Flatt into the Sr ranks unnoticed, with no pressure and no expectations...all the limelight would be on the seasoned Sr ladies, and esp Kimmie, the current World champ at the time. I think the experience for Flatt at US Nationals this past January will only help her develop as a skater....dealing with the 3/3 controversy, skating in the last flight and finishing 5th her first yr at Sr. Not too shabby for a kid who could incurred a substantial back injury five months prior. Good morale boost!

So, back to the GP selection process...Even if USFS throws Flatt's name into the mix for SA, I really doubt that she would go. It would only delay her development internationally. Zhang on the other hand, really should go to the GP series, most likely getting two events...perhaps China and Japan...(she was loved by the press at her JGP in Taipei last season)...even though she had very little competition on the JGP series last season, she should move up and taste the senior level. I would expect Wagner to take a slot as well. Not sure that Juliana will stay back in the JGP level...tough decision there. Kahle will most likely get one slot. Taylor? Zukowski? Maybe senior B events???

 

[sorcerer]

http://www.usfigureskating.org/Story.asp?id=25740&type=news

Above is the USFS article that explains the Grand Prix selection procedure.

Gee thank you chuckm. I understand it's mostly still the way it is.

A little off-topic, this you may already know but NHK is a state owned media company, so it doesn't have to worry about funding the costly broadcasting rights. Of course the organizer itself may mind the ticket sales, however, since the popularity of FS here will stay (if not grow) till Vancouver, Fumie-Aki-Mai or any similar set will fill the house for sure.
So I really hope the other 5 feds take all the appearances of Miki, Mao, Yukari !!

BTW, NHK needs no sponsors, so there are no commercial messages on air, no-cut live is possible, which I'd wish they 'll do for us.
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Miles to go.