2019-20 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[thatbeatingheart]

ISU's official youtube account view counts are kind of interesting, although they only have top 3. Trusova's at 71k whereas Anna's at 797k now. Tuktamysheva 13k.
What I find alarming is when someone posts completely objective numbers and statistics with zero opinions stated, it's "propaganda". I'd love to know your template for an objective post.

The problem with just posting total view counts of videos on a specific channel is that they’re no useful statistic. There are many more sources where you can watch certain performances which are not taken into account at all. It also matters when the video has been posted. In your example of Sasha and Anna, Annas video has been up for a week longer than Sashas, so naturally it has much more views at this point. Creating a proper statistic on that topic is a lot of work and I haven't seen one here before.

 

[flanker]

Changing the topic.
Alina and Aliona have landed in France already, probably some practice footage coming soon.
Will Aliona risk adding 3A in shot or will she keep it safe? Ideas?

I hope we will see tomorrow. There is a training schedule:
http://www.isuresults.com/schedules/gpfra2019_PracticeGroupsAndMusicRotation.pdf

16:25 to 17:05 local ime will be the most anticipated pre-competition practise in the whole season so far

 

[thatbeatingheart]

[...]

Changing the topic.
Alina and Aliona have landed in France already, probably some practice footage coming soon.
Will Aliona risk adding 3A in shot or will she keep it safe? Ideas?

From what I've seen it looks stable enough to put it in her SP but I can also see them playing it safe for her first GP to make sure she get's silver (or gold). At NHK on the other hand she'll face Rika additionally to Alina so I'm definitely seeing the 3A in her SP then.

 

[Jontor]

This whole discussion is pointless and it was started because someone said Medvedeva drove all the views at SC.
We don’t know who did, SC had a lot of wonderful skaters, the event was stacked.
Unless people have some reliable data on the number of people streaming per skater, let’s leave the question to rest.

All of this is so annoying. :-/ honestly...

Changing the topic.
Alina and Aliona have landed in France already, probably some practice footage coming soon.
Will Aliona risk adding 3A in shot or will she keep it safe? Ideas?

I think Aliona is keeping it safe for now and not risking a 3A in the short. I do think however that she can beat Alina. I haven't done the math but doesn't Aliona have much higher BV in the long?

 

[Shayuki]

The problem with just posting total view counts of videos on a specific channel is that they’re no useful statistic. There are many more sources where you can watch certain performances which are not taken into account at all. It also matters when the video has been posted. In your example of Sasha and Anna, Annas video has been up for a week longer than Sashas, so naturally it has much more views at this point. Creating a proper statistic on that topic is a lot of work and I haven't seen one here before.

There aren't that many videos of those performances available freely even on Youtube, though. A source which is geoblocked for everyone but the Russian viewers is quite a decent measure in my opinion - certainly better than nothing, whereas the opposite seems to have been suggested. Well, a quick search showed most of the videos having Trusova ahead of Medvedeva, anyway. Say, the channel Sasha ZIP which is the highest view count one for them, has Trusova at 103k and 123k, and Medvedeva at 70k and 65k. And this is without taking into account the fact that Sasha's videos on the official Youtube account, which I'm sure is taking some of the views from these videos away. Sasha ZIP videos are blocked in USA for what it's worth, but the rest of the videos available don't have very high viewcounts anyway.

In places dominated by a North American demographic, Medvedeva seems to be the most popular Russian skater by a good margin, especially when there's a high amount of Canadians. This indeed is something I've noticed, on another site for instance, and here to an extent. Still, what's interesting is that these Medvedeva videos I mentioned on Sasha ZIP channel are open to Canada, too, yet Sasha still has far more viewers. Even on her SP, which is a counter to "quad hype" as an argument.


The reason why Alëna would want to not include a 3A in the short but will probably choose to do so for the free, is due to the program structures. A bad 3A in the SP is still a loss over a clean 2A, whereas a 3A in the FS is such a great gain that it's worth doing even with a fall, and will still be beneficial in comparison to not including it.

 

[zounger]

Alina and Aliona have landed in France already, probably some practice footage coming soon.
Will Aliona risk adding 3A in shot or will she keep it safe? Ideas?

I think it's worth the risk. Since she cannot (my assumption) plan the layout according to what Alina and Kaori will deliver, it will be better to go for the maximum. A fail on triple axel it's not so big if you deliver the rest. Alena is of ones who delivers the rest. Her 3A looked on a good hit rate in practices and during the actual program. From the other side, here she doesn't have any competitor with 3A in short so there is no much risk that someone will go to much ahead in the SP. Both approaches under the circumstances of the current field look similar to me, I give a small edge to include 3A in SP.

 

[Alex65]

This whole discussion is pointless and it was started because someone said Medvedeva drove all the views at SC.
We don’t know who did, SC had a lot of wonderful skaters, the event was stacked.
Unless people have some reliable data on the number of people streaming per skater, let’s leave the question to rest.

All of this is so annoying. :-/ honestly...

Changing the topic.
Alina and Aliona have landed in France already, probably some practice footage coming soon.
Will Aliona risk adding 3A in shot or will she keep it safe? Ideas?

I think Alena will save 2A. 2A is one of the main WOW highlights in her short. But if she can make 3A out of сharlotte, it will be just awesome.

 

[flanker]

I've so mixed feelings about Alina and Aliona going against each other. Now I probably know how parents of Dina and Arina Averina feel when they compete against each other... Please, girls, show much respect to each other and good luck to you both.

 

[starla16]

I've so mixed feelings about Alina and Aliona going against each other. Now I probably know how parents of Dina and Arina Averina feel when they compete against each other... Please, girls, show much respect to each other and good luck to you both.

not quite, maybe by the chances of winning you mean ?
Dina is more consistent while Arina is considered the inferior twin sister.

so by your comparison who will be the inferior skater ?
they are not equal technically either.

 

[thatbeatingheart]

There aren't that many videos of those performances available freely even on Youtube, though. A source which is geoblocked for everyone but the Russian viewers is quite a decent measure in my opinion - certainly better than nothing, whereas the opposite seems to have been suggested. Well, a quick search showed most of the videos having Trusova ahead of Medvedeva, anyway. Say, the channel Sasha ZIP which is the highest view count one for them, has Trusova at 103k and 123k, and Medvedeva at 70k and 65k. And this is without taking into account the fact that Sasha's videos on the official Youtube account, which I'm sure is taking some of the views from these videos away. Sasha ZIP videos are blocked in USA for what it's worth, but the rest of the videos available don't have very high viewcounts anyway.

In places dominated by a North American demographic, Medvedeva seems to be the most popular Russian skater by a good margin, especially when there's a high amount of Canadians. This indeed is something I've noticed, on another site for instance, and here to an extent. Still, what's interesting is that these Medvedeva videos I mentioned on Sasha ZIP channel are open to Canada, too, yet Sasha still has far more viewers. Even on her SP, which is a counter to "quad hype" as an argument.


[...]

I was thinking more in general because I’ve seen a lot of useless numbers here in the past, but thanks for elaborating further on this particular data. I believe it was supposed to back the statement that Sasha's more popular in Russia than Zhenya if I remember correctly. I didn’t know the channel was geoblocked, so I guess it’s in fact the closest we can get to an idea of what Russian YouTube users are looking for.

 

[Vilord]

So ive been thinking about who has agood chance to go to the GPF this year. so far we have
1st place Sasha, Anna
2place Rika (+Brade who was 4th at SC and probably out)
3rd YY, Lisa T

I expect Alina and Alena to get 1 and 2 at IdF (but in what order is hard to say scoring potential is to me verry similair). 3rd place unpredictable but possibly Bell or Kaori

Cup of china has Anna, Lisa T and YY. I expect Anna to win this but as long as she podiums she is in. Unless Anna is 3rd only one of Lisa T and YY can get into the final since 3rd+3rd wont be enough. Satoko possible threat for a medal here.

Rostelecom is set up for Sasha to win and probably Evgenia to be 2nd. But since she was only 5th in SC this wont be enough. If she misses the short again it could invite Bell to have a shot if she medals at her IdF 2nd and 3rd could be enough. Satoko is also a contender for a medal here

NHK is the hardes one to predict since it has three top scorers (Rika, Alina and Alena) with similair scoring potential. I would give the edge to Rika since she usualy skates good in japan and will have home suport but I can see all three of the girls with either coloured medal. But since the 3rd placed skater will have at least a 2nd in their first event they should win the 2nd tiebreaker of all 2nd+3rd scoring skaters.

So here are my predicted qualifiers:
Sasha 1st+1st place
Anna 1st+1st/2nd place (3rd would keep her in but complicates stuff down below)
Alina 1st/2nd +1st/2nd/3rd
Alena 1st/2nd +1st/2nd/3rd
Rika 2nd+ 1st/2nd/3rd
YY/Lisa T 3rd + 1st/2nd

alternates Bradie, YY/Lisa T, Medvedeva (if second at Rostelecom), potentialy Bell (or someone else who scrapes 3rd+3rd/4th)

if Anna is 3rd at China and Lisa T an YY 1st and 2nd we get instead
Sasha
Anna
Lisa T
YY
winner of NHK (Alena /Alina /Rika)
2nd at NHK (Alina/ Alena /Rika)

Alternates 3rd place at NHK (Alena /Alina /Rika), Bradie, Medvedeva (if second at Rostelecom), possbly Bell (or someone else who scrapes 3rd+3rd/4th)

 

[voolfee]

Will Aliona risk adding 3A in shot or will she keep it safe? Ideas?

I am sure that Alena will jump 3A in SP. Without this it will be difficult for her to beat Alina.

 

[macy]

I am sure that Alena will jump 3A in SP. Without this it will be difficult for her to beat Alina.

i also think there is a big chance that she will add it in the short. although it's a big risk if she misses, if she lands it she will have a good edge over Alina going into the free. as long as she's been consistent with it, i don't see why not.

 

[vesperalvioletta]

This whole discussion is pointless and it was started because someone said Medvedeva drove all the views at SC.
We don’t know who did, SC had a lot of wonderful skaters, the event was stacked.
Unless people have some reliable data on the number of people streaming per skater, let’s leave the question to rest.

All of this is so annoying. :-/ honestly...

Changing the topic.
Alina and Aliona have landed in France already, probably some practice footage coming soon.
Will Aliona risk adding 3A in shot or will she keep it safe? Ideas?

I think she'll attempt it. I don't think a clean 2A is even worth that much more than a 3A with a fall. In my mind the potential reward outweighs the potential risk.

 

[Alex65]

I think she'll attempt it. I don't think a clean 2A is even worth that much more than a 3A with a fall. In my mind the potential reward outweighs the potential risk.

3A Alena is a formidable weapon, but her main caliber is a PC. A program with a fall will damage the PC, the risk may not be justified, at least at the first start.

 

[SkateSkates]

Maybe they decide based on how it’s going in practice. The travel to Finlandia will have been much shorter and easier than to Grenoble so we will see if/how this affects her. The team clearly wants all 4 skaters to qualify for GPF so they will make a decision based on maximizing chances for qualification.

 

[Vilord]

Maybe they decide based on how it’s going in practice. The travel to Finlandia will have been much shorter and easier than to Grenoble so we will see if/how this affects her. The team clearly wants all 4 skaters to qualify for GPF so they will make a decision based on maximizing chances for qualification.

If the main goal is to have all 4 in the GPF the best would be to have whoever is 1st at IdF here 3rd at NHK since that would guarantee all 3 medalists at NHK a place at the GPF. Which I think they deserve. But I dont expect them to truly work this strategy but rather for each skater to try and score as high at each comp based on the condition they are in at that specific day. With the overall goal of one Eteri girl wining gold at each of the 6 events

 

[NaVi]

Do you think Zhenya drove these numbers? I'm guessing so, which means a great deal for her future and commercial endorsements.

Somewhat... checking 1tv's instagram they seem to promote her a lot.

The ratings in general have more to do with it being on 1tv and what time of the day it's on and whether it's live or not. Last year the ladies long program for the European stages of the grand prix last year were sitting around 25-35 in ranking while the actual grand final in Canada was only 61. The 31 for Skate Canada this year is for a broadcast around midnight that was live.

But it's on 1tv because Zagitova and Medvedeva got big ratings during the Olympics and helped save the Olympics for Russia... if the NHL had participated in the 2018 Olympics there's a good chance Zagitova would have been the only Russian gold medalist from the games. I kind of wish that happened.

 

[[email protected]]

del

 

[Scott512]

And more numbers from TV1 YT for those not very understanding (from test skates):

Alina SP - 206 000
Sasha SP - 58 000
Alena SP - 51 000
Zhenya SP - 51 000
Anna SP - 45 000

Alina LP - 635 000
Sasha LP - 484 000
Anna LP - 414 000
Zhenya LP - 272 000
Alena LP - 214 000

How dare Aliona be so low on the viewership totem pole and she's the most beautiful artistic and musical skater in ladies figure skating today! According to those numbers Alena is still Queen but Sasha is on the warpath. You know what I say about all this that's just a phenomenal amount of young ladies Russians have in figure skating. That's the truth and it trumps whatever numbers we look at.

This whole discussion is pointless and it was started because someone said Medvedeva drove all the views at SC.
We don’t know who did, SC had a lot of wonderful skaters, the event was stacked.
Unless people have some reliable data on the number of people streaming per skater, let’s leave the question to rest.

All of this is so annoying. :-/ honestly...

Changing the topic.
Alina and Aliona have landed in France already, probably some practice footage coming soon.
Will Aliona risk adding 3A in shot or will she keep it safe? Ideas?

who keep trying to change the subject Nuss! I hope it works.

I've so mixed feelings about Alina and Aliona going against each other. Now I probably know how parents of Dina and Arina Averina feel when they compete against each other... Please, girls, show much respect to each other and good luck to you both.

You will have even more mixed feelings if Aliona wins IDF. Me too for that matter. It should be exciting.