2019-20 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating | Page 739 | Golden Skate

2019-20 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

So at Russian nationals; let’s say Sasha wins, then Alena is second.

Anna/Zhenya/Alina are all within 1-2 points. Will they sub out people for worlds/euros or just go top 3 to euros and only sub if someone bombs?

I think most likely scenario, they will go with Anna if she is 3rd at nationals. She had the best GP out of Anna/Evgenia/Alina. If it's close (they're all within 1-2 points) they'll probably go with whoever is 3rd (even though I think Anna would deserve it the most if it were that close based on GP results). They'll only sub someone out from Euros to Worlds if they bomb. Whoever places the highest will deserve to a shot at both Euro and Worlds; the fed won't treat Euros as a consolation prize, and they shouldn't. It's a tight competition and difficult for them all, but one will deserve it more than the others.
 
I can't see Russia not going with the top 3 at Nationals. The team will come from the three strongest skaters this season and three world champions. There is no reason to sub anyone.
 
I’m trying to figure out at what time in the early morning I need to get up for the ladies free skate. I’m on EST. Does anyone know for sure? I think it’s around 3am but I’m not sure....

Rooting for Alina and Aliona to do awesome long programs. Good luck!!

The ladies FS starts at 16:50 local time, so that's 2:50am EST time.
 
Who are the three world champions you mentioned?

I think that dmd meant that anyone that places top three at Russian Nats is a contender for a world title. At least that’s how I interpreted it.

As long as there are no surprises at Russian Nats or the GPF then I think that the world team will be the triple A. But if one of them struggles at Nats or the GPF, I could see some politicking going on and maybe one of them not being on the team. As much as I hate saying that I think that it could be a reality and that is why Eteri pushes them to be consistent and clean. If they are mostly clean or clean at every competition then there is no room for politicking.
 
Why do people always talk about Anna as the one they will boot in favour of someone else?

I'm not a fan of her skating at all but objectively she's landed all her quads and scored gold in both her GPs. She doesn't strike me as particularly nervy or inconsistent. She's got the jumps and lands them. Doesn't seem prone to meltdowns.

Why is she always nominated as tribute in these discussions? It just seems strange.
 
Why do people always talk about Anna as the one they will boot in favour of someone else?

I'm not a fan of her skating at all but objectively she's landed all her quads and scored gold in both her GPs. She doesn't strike me as particularly nervy or inconsistent. She's got the jumps and lands them. Doesn't seem prone to meltdowns.

Why is she always nominated as tribute in these discussions? It just seems strange.

Trusova has 4 quads, even falling on 1 or 2 of them and she will most likely win her competitions she enters
Kostornaia has a triple axel so she's able to do that in the SP and the FS and gets really good PCS that can hold her up if she falls

I think it's strange as well that Shcherbakova is always talked about as the 1 getting booted if Kostornaia/Trusova/Shcherbakova go 1-2-3 at Nationals that the Fed will pick Zagitova or Medvedevea over her for Euros or Worlds. Given her consistency this season and Zagitova and Medvedeva's inconsistencies - if the 3 are close at Nationals I think they should go in favor of someone consistently doing quads that can compete against Kihara. Barring something crazy happening in a few hours, Kostornaia/Trusova/Shcherbakova/Zagitova/Kihara will be at the GPF and I think that will be very telling to see how they all get judged on the same ice with the same judges a mini-Worlds preview + 1 (since 1 of the 4 Russians will be at home).
 
Trusova has 4 quads, even falling on 1 or 2 of them and she will most likely win her competitions she enters
Kostornaia has a triple axel so she's able to do that in the SP and the FS and gets really good PCS that can hold her up if she falls

I think it's strange as well that Shcherbakova is always talked about as the 1 getting booted if Kostornaia/Trusova/Shcherbakova go 1-2-3 at Nationals that the Fed will pick Zagitova or Medvedevea over her for Euros or Worlds. Given her consistency this season and Zagitova and Medvedeva's inconsistencies - if the 3 are close at Nationals I think they should go in favor of someone consistently doing quads that can compete against Kihara. Barring something crazy happening in a few hours, Kostornaia/Trusova/Shcherbakova/Zagitova/Kihara will be at the GPF and I think that will be very telling to see how they all get judged on the same ice with the same judges a mini-Worlds preview + 1 (since 1 of the 4 Russians will be at home).

From everything I have read about the three of them online most people seem to say she is the weakest. They do not think her jumps will survive puberty. I think that's why she's the one who always gets talked about "getting booted" if the fed. had to make a choice. People are letting their guessed predictions of the future color what is currently happening. Also fans consider Kostornaia the artist and Trusova the jumper while Shcherbakova is kind of in the middle of both so she doesn't exactly inspire the same amount of excitement/investment as the other two do so in a way she's the most expendable. At least that's the vibe I get :confused2:
 
Who are the three world champions you mentioned?

3 strongest skaters this season: Sasha, Anna, Alena
3 world champions: Alina, Evgenia, Liza

Those are the 6 main contenders for the world team this year, and RusFed will probably go with the first 3 as they are doing better this season (and deserve it, imo).
 
Guys, Anna is seen as the weakest of the 3 not because "her quads are unstable" or "puberty might ruin her jumps". It's a logical conclusion because in the judges eyes, she's the weakest so far. She has the lowest total score of the 3A far. No need to try and make up theories, just go with the facts that we have.

Imo she isn't the weakest, but only the judges' opinion matter when we're discussing world spots - RusFed is looking at numbers and results, not public opinion. I'm quite sure they're also not trying to predict the future of what puberty will do to these skaters' jumps when making the selection. All that matters is current results.
 
Trusova has 4 quads, even falling on 1 or 2 of them and she will most likely win her competitions she enters
Kostornaia has a triple axel so she's able to do that in the SP and the FS and gets really good PCS that can hold her up if she falls

I think it's strange as well that Shcherbakova is always talked about as the 1 getting booted if Kostornaia/Trusova/Shcherbakova go 1-2-3 at Nationals that the Fed will pick Zagitova or Medvedevea over her for Euros or Worlds. Given her consistency this season and Zagitova and Medvedeva's inconsistencies - if the 3 are close at Nationals I think they should go in favor of someone consistently doing quads that can compete against Kihara. Barring something crazy happening in a few hours, Kostornaia/Trusova/Shcherbakova/Zagitova/Kihara will be at the GPF and I think that will be very telling to see how they all get judged on the same ice with the same judges a mini-Worlds preview + 1 (since 1 of the 4 Russians will be at home).

I feel like we've all gotten used to RusFed's tactics, so for them to prod another skater up (whether fairly or unfairly) isn't surprising. As dominant as 3A are, some non-Eteri supporting judges may not like that the entire Russian team is just her pupils. Politics may then come into play. Given that, the #3 Eteri senior would be the most likely one to get the boot if RusFed wanted to play some games. From what we've seen so far, there's really no way Sasha would get the boot. She's been far too consistent on her quads and has been scoring monstrously. Prior to Alena's 3A's, some were speculating she would get left behind. Now that she's added 3A's and gotten her well deserved PCS boost, it seems unlikely she'd falter. Lastly, that leaves Anna. She's senior national champion and I don't think anyone is discounting her, but of the Eteri new seniors, she's been the weakest by comparison. She's gotten hosed in the SP. She's fallen on a StSq. She's the only one among the trio to not score over 230. If she does happen to falter at Nationals, I would not be toooooo surprised to see them prod up a perfect Alina or Evgenia. Temporarily, Evgenia's SB is only 2 less than Anna's. Alina in the past has also scored much higher than Anna's SB. If RusFed wanted to play games, her spot would be most precarious. However, I don't think it will happen. Anna so far seems most likely out of 3A, but the chance is still low (if Sasha/Alena's chances of getting left off were ~10%, Anna's would be like 12%). Sasha has TES while Alena has PCS (and now TES as well). Anna is more in the mid ground, but has been judges less generously by comparison.

However, I don't think the conspiracy is as extreme as a lot of people make it out to be. I don't think Anna or any of 3A will be deliberately underscored. Only in the event that one of them skates underwhelmingly would someone swoop in and seize the opportunity. It would be foolish to deliberate shove down someone when they could theoretically sweep the Worlds podium.
 
Judging from how high Alena's GOE and PCS were in the SP, I'd say her potential score when clean would be higher than 160.00. Her Finlandia FS with a UR 3A earned 157.59. Add back points for a clean 3A and she'd already be at 161. Sprinkle in higher GOE for maybe another 1-2 pts, and PCS another 1-2. She'd probably end up around 163-165 depending on how generous judges are (and judging from the SP, very generous).

I redid the calculation with GOE based on Finlandia instead of IdF which gave me 161.35. The reason its not higher is that she got verry high pcs (ca 0.5 higher for each category) in finlandia compared to what she got in the short yesturday. As I stated in my first post Idecided to base PCS on the short since I didnt think the judges will change that much between short and free if both programs are clean. Much more likely imo to vary more between different comps with different judges.
 
I feel like we've all gotten used to RusFed's tactics, so for them to prod another skater up (whether fairly or unfairly) isn't surprising. As dominant as 3A are, some non-Eteri supporting judges may not like that the entire Russian team is just her pupils. Politics may then come into play. Given that, the #3 Eteri senior would be the most likely one to get the boot if RusFed wanted to play some games. From what we've seen so far, there's really no way Sasha would get the boot. She's been far too consistent on her quads and has been scoring monstrously. Prior to Alena's 3A's, some were speculating she would get left behind. Now that she's added 3A's and gotten her well deserved PCS boost, it seems unlikely she'd falter. Lastly, that leaves Anna. She's senior national champion and I don't think anyone is discounting her, but of the Eteri new seniors, she's been the weakest by comparison. She's gotten hosed in the SP. She's fallen on a StSq. She's the only one among the trio to not score over 230. If she does happen to falter at Nationals, I would not be toooooo surprised to see them prod up a perfect Alina or Evgenia. Temporarily, Evgenia's SB is only 2 less than Anna's. Alina in the past has also scored much higher than Anna's SB. If RusFed wanted to play games, her spot would be most precarious. However, I don't think it will happen. Anna so far seems most likely out of 3A, but the chance is still low (if Sasha/Alena's chances of getting left off were ~10%, Anna's would be like 12%). Sasha has TES while Alena has PCS (and now TES as well). Anna is more in the mid ground, but has been judges less generously by comparison.

However, I don't think the conspiracy is as extreme as a lot of people make it out to be. I don't think Anna or any of 3A will be deliberately underscored. Only in the event that one of them skates underwhelmingly would someone swoop in and seize the opportunity. It would be foolish to deliberate shove down someone when they could theoretically sweep the Worlds podium.

The problem with one of the 3A gets held down in favour of someone else to fauvor another coach instead of Eteri is that the two outside contenders are technicaly hers as well. Alina obviously skates with Eteri herself. Evgenia was brought to greatness by Eteri and even if she now skates with Orser I dont see RusFed doing him any favours above Eteri. If the outside contendor was coached by some other russian (say Buianova) I could see it happen but not in this situation.
 
The problem with one of the 3A gets held down in favour of someone else to fauvor another coach instead of Eteri is that the two outside contenders are technicaly hers as well. Alina obviously skates with Eteri herself. Evgenia was brought to greatness by Eteri and even if she now skates with Orser I dont see RusFed doing him any favours above Eteri. If the outside contendor was coached by some other russian (say Buianova) I could see it happen but not in this situation.

Mishin is very unhappy with the current state of affairs, I am sure.
 
Sooo... 6 down? ;)
And the Trusova’s record still stands, although, it was very dangerous for Sashulya’s WRs ;)
Congrats to our wonderful 4A with their well deserved GPF!
 
Kostornaias PCS rose almost a point, but not enough
her PCS almost tied to Kihira is a joke. Anyways I think with every clean skate her PCS can rise.
 
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