I have a lot of confidence in Mariah and Bradie. The easily could earn three spots for the US. Bradie could even win a world medal if some skaters falter wich is possible at least one Russian lady crashing and a Japanese lady or two can be beaten. The only issue is if the second American ie mariah or whoever loses to the two Koreans, Lilbet, and all three Russians and Japanese ( do the Japanese have 2 or 3 ladies?) then there is trouble.
Japan has 3 ladies.
I think the GP is always way too early to do this, but what they heck? We have a little time so why not? (Keeping in mind that none of the competitive National teams have been selected yet & that Tursynbaeva did not establish herself as a medal contender last season until February).
I have zero expectations of Mariah & Bradie earning back the three berths, but they can do it. They've skated well on the GP and done pretty much what they need to do, which is stay calm after a setback or mistake and continue to do their best.
-I'd say 3 Russian ladies & Kihira are the favorites.
-Then Young has enough firepower to control her own destiny. Do not know if she has the experience yet to make that happen. Worlds is really a whole different level of competition so maybe I should say probably not at her first one, but I'll pencil her into that 5th spot with the firepower in mind.
After that things do get interesting. Sakamoto, I think, underperformed on the GP; but she looks in shape & ready. With Satoko, I'm worried about this coaching change. And while Wakaba is looking better, I'm more hopeful for next year than this one. Miyahara seems a more likely bet for the team & with the coaching change a bit more volatile than I usually anticipate from her. (Though I think her LP will bring in a big second mark if she nails it). Elizabet & Gabby have done nothing to indicate factoring them in at this stage, but they do not
have to do so until late winter. I don't know who will make it out of Korean Nationals with silver or the second highest score of an age-eligible athlete (probably Eunsoo but I think they should give Yelim a chance if she gets the job done).
Anyway, at this point I think Bradie has a pretty good shot of finishing top 5-8. Looking at Mariah's history under pressure, I think less of one but still probably a better shot than Korea's #2 or Gabby. So . . . a 5 & 8 would be enough. A 6 & 8 wouldn't. We'll see. It's a good goal. Both U.S. ladies look healthy right now and ready to compete. They've done a good job & are continuing to gain experience.