Coronavirus and the World Championships

[Tolstoj]

Reading some of these comments makes me feel sick much more than a possible coronavirus. It’s unbelievable how people are speculating over a country which has the only guilt to had run too many tests, even when people were not showing any symptom nor they were connected to the red zones of Codogno and the villages in the Lodi area which are now in lockdown.

And just for your information (if any of you cares about it) the number of people positive to COVID-19 is not the one showed on TV, because in those 650 cases are counted ALL the people tested positive to the virus at a FIRST test but not everyone was then confirmed by the second one run by the ISS (National Istitute of Health), which is, by the way, the only institution allowed to confirm the COVID-19 cases. In fact, the real numbers are not so high and despite 17 deaths (all elderly people AND with previous serious health problems) the number of cured is increasing to over 40. Let’s also consider that many of the infected are not in particular concerning situations.

The thing that is harming the most is the ignorance and the irrational fear.

It's not even too many tests, personally i fully approve our approach, we shouldn't underestimate anything when it comes health.

It's just baffling to see the response overseas which is basically ignoring the issue and blaming us for informing, and no borders can stop it in this day and age, but it is important to keep in mind that people do recover, life will continue as always.

 

[Sugar Coated]

10%???

As of today:
Hubei: 65597 cases out of 58.5 million people = 0.11%
China: 78497 cases out of 1386 million people = 0.005%
South Korea: 1766 cases out of 51.5 million people = 0.003%
Italy: 453 cases out of 60.5 million people = 0.00075%
Japan: 189 cases out of 126.8 million people = 0.00015%

And in China the number of new cases per day is now decreasing.

We do not know the true numbers because of limited testing. The disease is highly contagious. Without containment, cases increase exponentially. If the current number of reported cases continue to increase at the current estimated rate total cases double every 6 days. If this is the case we can go to millions in a matter of weeks.

Scientists are predicting that 40-70% of the world will be infected: https://thehill.com/changing-americ...482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for

Not trying to scare anybody, it’s too soon to know but this is very possible prediction based on scientific models and understanding of epidemiology.

 

[Step Sequence4]

We do not know the true numbers because of limited testing. The disease is highly contagious. Without containment, cases increase exponentially. If the current number of reported cases continue to increase at the current estimated rate total cases double every 6 days. If this is the case we can go to millions in a matter of weeks.

Scientists are predicting that 40-70% of the world will be infected: https://thehill.com/changing-americ...482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for

Not trying to scare anybody, it’s too soon to know but this is very possible prediction based on scientific models and understanding of epidemiology.

I'm not sure if I believe that it could go from less than 0.5% in the highest infected countries (China etc) to 40-70% of the entire world's population in less than a year....

 

[Sugar Coated]

It's not even too many tests, personally i fully approve our approach, we shouldn't underestimate anything when it comes health.

It's just baffling to see the response overseas which is basically ignoring the issue and blaming us for informing, and no borders can stop it in this day and age, but it is important to keep in mind that people do recover, life will continue as always.

Completely agree. We needed to get this information about asymptomatic spread and localized transmissions. Italy and South Korea have been very transparent and I think other countries have similar cases, just have not confirmed them due to limited testing. Look what is happening in Iran with the explosion of cases, this is happening everywhere - their own health minister was diagnosed a day after assuring everyone on TV that it was under control.

It’s not the end of the world, the vast majority of young healthy will be fine. But I’m absolutely disappointed in the way the US is handling it because containment depends on increased testing and transparency.

 

[Lana05]

WC of short track was cancelled in Seul, South Korea. And short track is also a part of ISU.

I doubt that in Italy it is more safe than in South Korea right now.

 

[surimi]

Team Japan are now off the Coupe du Printemps list, but too early to tell if it means anything for Worlds. Super gutted that Japan juniors can apparently go to Jr. Worlds but the older skaters cannot go to a minor event when both are in Europe Health first, and that is right and commendable; but I don't understand why the difference was made since the two events are not even a week apart.

 

[Sugar Coated]

I'm not sure if I believe that it could go from less than 0.5% in the highest infected countries (China etc) to 40-70% of the entire world's population in less than a year....

It doubles approximately every week. It’s been too long since I dealt with exponential equations. But I believe in 1 week .5% becomes 1%. In 2 weeks, that becomes 2%. In 3 weeks that become 4%, and so on if it’s not contained. That’s why China quarantined so many millions of people despite the economic costs. Because unless you limit spread the number accelerates.

And this take times to ramp up. Starting with 1 person, it goes to 2 in one week, 4 in 2 weeks, 8 in 3 weeks and it takes 10 weeks to get 1024 cases. But at this same rate it goes to 1,000,000 in 20 weeks. And then that doubles the next week and so on. This is just how exponents work.

Keep in mind that there is also a delay in showing symptoms and recieving diagnosis. So 300 people with confirmed diagnoses may actually mean that there are currently many more people with the disease actively spreading it before becoming sick.

 

[rosy14]

L

WC of short track was cancelled in Seul, South Korea. And short track is also a part of ISU.

I doubt that in Italy it is more safe than in South Korea right now.

Yea, it’s safer, just look at the numbers: more than 2000 cases in Korea, 660 circa in Italy.

 

[rosy14]

It doubles approximately every week. It’s been too long since I dealt with exponential equations. But I believe in 1 week .5% becomes 1%. In 2 weeks, that becomes 2%. In 3 weeks that become 4%, and so on if it’s not contained. That’s why China quarantined so many millions of people despite the economic costs. Because unless you limit spread the number accelerates.

And this take times to ramp up. Starting with 1 person, it goes to 2 in one week, 4 in 2 weeks, 8 in 3 weeks and it takes 10 weeks to get 1024 cases. But at this same rate it goes to 1,000,000 in 20 weeks. And then that doubles the next week and so on. This is just how exponents work.

Keep in mind that there is also a delay in showing symptoms and recieving diagnosis. So 300 people with confirmed diagnoses may actually mean that there are currently many more people with the disease actively spreading it before becoming sick.

Doubling is arythmetical, exponential should be quadratic, I believe.
So: not 2-4-8-16-32..., but : 2-4-16-256...

 

[Roo87]

There is a FINA World Diving Series event being held in Montreal this weekend. I know nothing about diving, but this this seems to be the equivalent of a Grand Prix event going from this Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_FINA_Diving_World_Series

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There's also a huge conference in Toronto next week with up to 30k people from all over the world, it's still going ahead. I really can't see worlds being cancelled, Montreal doesn't even have any confirmed cases.

 

[Cutting the ice]

Transmission rate is important to know for this virus and while experts are learning every day, this rate termed "ro" is estimated at between 2-3 for this virus. This means for every infective person, ~ 2.5 people contract the infection from them. To simplify the math - let's assume 1 person infects 3 people. So 1 infected person infects 3 (so now 4 infected people) and then those 3 people infect (3X3) = 9 - now we have 9+4 = 13 infected people, and so on. The time of transmission is important as well - incubation is 2 - 14 days so time will vary to go from the initial infected person to those 13 infected people but it could be as short as a week and as long as a month. But it is still a steep upwards epidemic curve if we dont do anything to slow it.

My take on what WHO is telling us (and the CDC for those who live in the USA), is that COVID-19 wont be properly controlled through limitation of travel alone and it will continue to spread world-wide for a variety of reasons. So how can an individual in any country mitigate risk of infection? We can self-quarantine (the Canadian government is actively telling us to make sure we have food, medicines etc for at least a week - perhaps longer as part of emergency preparedness), we can keep a bottle of hand disinfectant on a belt loop and apply liberally after touching anything in public, and if we get symptoms - make sure we aren't a risk to others (mask, hand disinfectant, self quarantine).

So should World's be cancelled? I really really hope not and I imagine that the organizers and ISU are watching daily news events and likely consulting with WHO and the Public Health Agency of Canada. It is very tough to know if precautions are enough or too much or not enough when it comes to protecting the health of the public. Public health workers often are between a rock and a hard place - either extremely well-thought out and prescriptive actions are proposed by those in Public Health and no outbreak happens (best scenario) - and then the backlash is that the actions were over-kill, or those same actions fail to stop an outbreak and the backlash is that the Public Health officials didnt do enough, are incompetent etc.

I am very glad I don't work in public health but very much respect those that do.

 

[Mathman]

Why I have a feeling that you WANT WC to be cancelled - for pure personal reasons having nothing to do with health concerns? Why is that, I wonder?

Maybe it's because people hate Russia and want Trusova to lose.

If 100,000,000 people have to die to accomplish that goal -- well, at least they died in a worthy cause.

(I think your paranoia is showing. You will be surprised to learn this, but hating on Eteri T. is not the engine that drives every facet of human existence.)

 

[Manitou]

Maybe it's because people hate Russia and want Trusova t lose.

If 100,000,000 people have to die to accomplish that goal -- well, at least they died in a worthy cause.

(I think your paranoia is showing. You will be surprised to learn this, but hating on Eteri T. is not the engine that drives every facet of human existence.)

Wow, wow! I didn't expect that kind of response!!

 

[Tahuu]

We do not know the true numbers because of limited testing. The disease is highly contagious. Without containment, cases increase exponentially. If the current number of reported cases continue to increase at the current estimated rate total cases double every 6 days. If this is the case we can go to millions in a matter of weeks.

Scientists are predicting that 40-70% of the world will be infected: https://thehill.com/changing-americ...482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for

Not trying to scare anybody, it’s too soon to know but this is very possible prediction based on scientific models and understanding of epidemiology.

Gee, from that article Harvard estimated 40-70%, WHO 66%, HK University 60-80% of world population will be infected. Is it going to the new cold/flu for human?

Is COVID19 substituting World War III to reduce the world population, but selectively to remove the old and sicked folks? No deaths occurred in those aged 9 years and younger, for those <30 years the fatality rate was 0.2% (compared to 0.1% by flu), but for those aged 70 to 79 years had an 8% fatality rate and those aged 80 years and older had a fatality rate of 14.8%. For those having existing conditions: 10.5% for people with cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes, 6.3% for chronic respiratory disease, 6% for hypertension, and 5.6% for cancer.

 

[Cutting the ice]

Gee, from that article Harvard estimated 40-70%, WHO 66%, HK University 60-80% of world population will be infected. Is it going to the new cold/flu for human?

Is COVID19 substituting World War III to reduce the world population, but selectively to remove the old and sicked folks? No deaths occurred in those aged 9 years and younger, for those <30 years the fatality rate was 0.2% (compared to 0.1% by flu), but for those aged 70 to 79 years had an 8% fatality rate and those aged 80 years and older had a fatality rate of 14.8%. For those having existing conditions: 10.5% for people with cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes, 6.3% for chronic respiratory disease, 6% for hypertension, and 5.6% for cancer.

To put a slightly different spin on a famous meme "Too bad Boomer" (full disclosure - I am a Boomer)

 

[AlinaRina]

The hysteria and accusations in this thread are mind boggling. Let's let the professional health officials do their job, and we can do our job to enjoy skating

 

[sailormoon]

The ISU announced that the Junior World Figure Skating Championships in Tallinn will be held as scheduled. But the participants of the Junior World Championships will be checked for the coronavirus. In Estonia, there was the first case of coronavirus infection.

https://rsport.ria.ru/20200228/1565347172.html

 

[norwegianfairytale]

The way Norway is handeling the situation now is horrible and this is why this could get far worse in Europe.

A hospital doctor at the biggest hospital in Norway came home from North Italy sunday and went to work on monday, he started feeling sick on Tuesday and he asked if he should test for Corona, because of mild symptoms and that he just came from Italy. He was told that no, he did not need to, because the symptoms were to mild. He started feeling worse, and got tested. Today it was confirmed that he has the virus. In the meantime he has worked with a lot of patiens and coworkers at the hospital. 4 of the coworkers shows symptoms now and are waiting for the testresult.

People are not set in quarantee here before they both have symptoms and been in one of the countries with high number of infected. Not even doctors working in hospitals. This is crazy!

Peoples freedom are extremly important here and that is the big danger now!

 

[Harriet]

I have to say that cancelling Senior Worlds seems like a rational step to take at this point, given that we're still in 'attempt to prevent a full-on pandemic' stage of disease management and part of that is getting people to limit their international movement. Cancelling Junior Worlds would be less effective given that most if not all of the people involved in the event have already travelled and are on-site by now, but I'm glad to hear that they're taking testing precautions.

And I'm not denying that there would be a certain pleasing irony in the ISU being forced by circumstance to cancel the event that was supposed to launch their shiny new profile-raising awards show after they deliberately took steps to prevent too many lower-profile skaters sullying it with their presence...Dasa Avenged?

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I have to say that cancelling Senior Worlds seems like a rational step to take at this point, given that we're still in 'attempt to prevent a full-on pandemic' stage of disease management and part of that is getting people to limit their international movement.

If we had to make a decision today, I would not cancel Worlds. One event like this would have, overall, very little impact in the global spread of the illness. We could end coronavirus by the end of March if everyone in the world quarantined themselves for the next 21 days, but obviously the drawbacks of shutting the world down far outweigh the risks at this time. A championship skating event isn't the most important thing, but I'd say the risks involved with holding it are relatively low. But the ISU should also monitor the situation and reconsider if things get worse.