COVID-19: Coping and Social Distancing

[CoyoteChris]

The US is embarking on a great adventure and experiment to try and flatten the curve with social distancing.
While it is obvious that many of my fellow Americans do not wish to participate right now, I have COPD and wont go out much.
You can follow along and see how the US is doing. The math is simple....draw a graph like you did in grade school and see if it flattens.
The more it flattens, the better off we are...and the more of us old people get respirators....
Good luck, everyone! Stay well!
Here is a graph to get you started.

 

[dorispulaski]

Yeah, we are not starting off well.

 

[CoyoteChris]

Yeah, we are not starting off well.

Doris, In WA, we dont have any real testing program yet, so our curve here is shallower....it took four days to double....
Interesting that four states closed bars and restaurants....we have not yet.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...us-bars-restaurants-closed-states/5055634002/

Here in Spokane, with our first three cases, there is no panic...grocery stores are busy with a few empty shelves and depleted shelves so far....
Need to search web for recipes and how to make soup with dried beans...pinto, lima, great northern...just some basic spices...

 

[hanyuufan5]

God willing, the odds of it staying exponential very long are slim. It didn't reach anywhere near 100 million cases in China, a much more populous country than the US, before it peaked and started to drop.

With all due respect, the math is far from simple. Without getting too much into the nitty-gritty that I don't even fully understand all of, the very, very simplified version is that these things eventually peak and then have an exponential decline as well, again, God willing that nothing weird happens.

If all goes as usual, they'll eventually look like one of these in figure 2: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 (crossing self and knocking wood)

 

[Amei]

The important thing to remember is that most people this is the flu.

I have an autoimmune disorder and right now am thanking my lucky stars that I've been able to manage the side effects of my disease with natural treatments and been able to forego the immunosuppressent drugs (in other words - I've got a prescription that my doctor wrote for me that I refuse to fill at this point) that would make this virus much scarier for me. The funny thing is that without the immunosuppressent drugs my immune system is overactive - which I'm counting as being a super-power that will ward this sucker off.

 

[dorispulaski]

As to Bean Soup and other bean recipes, there are not only Boston baked beans, red beans and rice, Greek bean soup...try it done with the broth from cooking corned beef...and the Greek Giant Beans recipe, (gigantes), baked with dill. There are many good things to do with dried chick peas, too, including hummus.

Corned beef is a great option- keeps a long time in the fridge - and the leftovers are good -Reubens and hash.

I will be doing all of these. As a 73 year old widow, I am well aware that if there are not enough respirators to go around, I am not getting one. I am limiting my shopping trips as much as possible this way.

CT has been proactive about the epidemic, but as a small state close to the hot spots of Boston, Providence, and New York City, we hope we can just flatten the curve here. My county, New London county had its first case, a child from Rhode Island at a Stonington day care. Schools are closed. Church is cancelled. The libraries are closed. However, Hartford Health is instituting drive- in testing. Yale Health cannot be far behind (our local service).

The state is serious, but not all the people are, sad to say.

But looking like China (a two month course) would be better th an looking like Italy where they have only one respirator for every eight cases this week.

 

[CoyoteChris]

God willing, the odds of it staying exponential very long are slim. It didn't reach anywhere near 100 million cases in China, a much more populous country than the US, before it peaked and started to drop.

With all due respect, the math is far from simple. Without getting too much into the nitty-gritty that I don't even fully understand all of, the very, very simplified version is that these things eventually peak and then have an exponential decline as well, again, God willing that nothing weird happens.

If all goes as usual, they'll eventually look like one of these in figure 2: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 (crossing self and knocking wood)

A forum member posted this link. It has the up to date curves for 7 countries. Yes, it wont go up for ever, or we all would be dead. How high and how fast is the issue. You can see that we have indeed doubled in three days.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

This link shows the timeline of the last SARS outbreak.
https://www.cdc.gov/about/history/sars/timeline.htm

In 2003, there was a small reemergence of SARS due to the resuption of the wildlife market in China...and that is what happened in 2019. Now, they again have a temerary ban...
"The small reemergence of SARS in late 2003 after the resumption of the wildlife market in southern China and the recent discovery of a very similar virus in horseshoe bats, bat SARS-CoV, suggested that SARS can return if conditions are fit for the introduction, mutation, amplification, and transmission of this dangerous virus "

https://cmr.asm.org/content/20/4/660

 

[CoyoteChris]

As to Bean Soup and other bean recipes, there are not only Boston baked beans, red beans and rice, Greek bean soup...try it done with the broth from cooking corned beef...and the Greek Giant Beans recipe, (gigantes), baked with dill. There are many good things to do with dried chick peas, too, including hummus.

Corned beef is a great option- keeps a long time in the fridge - and the leftovers are good -Reubens and hash.

I will be doing all of these. As a 73 year old widow, I am well aware that if there are not enough respirators to go around, I am not getting one. I am limiting my shopping trips as much as possible this way.

CT has been proactive about the epidemic, but as a small state close to the hot spots of Boston, Providence, and New York City, we hope we can just flatten the curve here. My county, New London county had its first case, a child from Rhode Island at a Stonington day care. Schools are closed. Church is cancelled. The libraries are closed. However, Hartford Health is instituting drive- in testing. Yale Health cannot be far behind (our local service).

The state is serious, but not all the people are, sad to say.

But looking like China (a two month course) would be better th an looking like Italy where they have only one respirator for every eight cases this week.

I love corned beef! Low fat ones if I can find them.
I need to find say 5 easy to get spices so I can cook up my bean collection in an emergency...

Still no panic here....but no carts to be found in Walmart....lots of buying...and almost every cart still has toilet paper???? Pasta Isle is low, as are generic over the counter drugs and other things....
I have to admire Frisco....this may be the best idea yet to flatten the curve.
https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/in-...rder-residents-to-stay-home-over-coronavirus/

 

[macy]

i'm in MI and all bars and restaurants are closed for dine-in, many retailers are closing (got an email Bath and Body Works and Sephora are temporarily closing, Lush has closed all stores across north america already), MSU (also where i work) has switched to online classes the rest of the semester and are urging all staff who can to work from home, all parks in my county are closed, all K-12 schools across the state are closed until sometime in April. i had to get groceries at 6 am this morning so i could actually get the things i need, and it was very slim pickins for things like meat, bread, box goods, toilet paper, etc. there were a good amount of shoppers for that hour.

i really hope these precautions will have a good effect on flattening the curve, along with the uptick in people using hand sanitizer and washing their hands more regularly (or just regularly...lol)

 

[CoyoteChris]

i'm in MI and all bars and restaurants are closed for dine-in, many retailers are closing (got an email Bath and Body Works and Sephora are temporarily closing, Lush has closed all stores across north america already), MSU (also where i work) has switched to online classes the rest of the semester and are urging all staff who can to work from home, all parks in my county are closed, all K-12 schools across the state are closed until sometime in April. i had to get groceries at 6 am this morning so i could actually get the things i need, and it was very slim pickins for things like meat, bread, box goods, toilet paper, etc. there were a good amount of shoppers for that hour.

i really hope these precautions will have a good effect on flattening the curve, along with the uptick in people using hand sanitizer and washing their hands more regularly (or just regularly...lol)

Milk is in short supply here now and being rationed...oats, pasta, are low....Super markets cutting back on hours so they can restock.....we should know in two weeks if this flattens the curve. If not, maybe we should have done what the 6 counties around Frisco are doing. Shelter in place.
I like this idea. Singapore, China and the US have this blood test that will tell you if you have it or if you have EVER had it. That's huge.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...fuzqiPlNFjHLDru7eFzdG4OXugkQRFkqbMHnQK6c5sQak

 

[CoyoteChris]

This looks like a keeper with lots of simple things...broth and paprika and carrots, etc
https://www.wellplated.com/15-bean-soup/

They had me at bacon...

 

[norwegianfairytale]

Meanwhile in Norway, we had to deal with a lot of norwegians being awful stubborn and angry about not wanting to leave their private cabins in the mountains, all though the government has begged them not to be there, and told them to go home in this crisis.

This is simply because a lot of cabins are placed in small municipality with limited spaces in hospitals and medical care. As every hospital, doctors and medical care has to deal with the virus, they can not deal with cabin people hurting themselves going skiing in the mountains, or having a stroke or something on top of getting the virus as well.

On Thursday, when we started to lock down Norway, by closing schools, recommending home office and some people being temporarily laid off, a lot started to go their private cabins in the mountains on what they think must be holiday.

Where I live, there is 15 000 inhabitants, but last weekend it was 30 000 people registered here because of all the people going to their private cabins in the mountains. As you can imagine, this could be catastrophic. So, they were asked kindly to go home, so small communities like us could take care of our own people.

But a lot of them refused to leave, because they feel safer being isolated in the cabin, of course, not thinking about the society, or that they are contributing spreading the virus by going from one place to another.

Well, the prime minister had to make a speech and tell people to go home. They even started to threaten with hat they would send out people knocking on cabin doors, and legally ordering them to leave.

Well, some left, but a lot insisted to stay in the cabins. In one particular small village, the cabin people even started calling down the local doctor office and ask if they could get exemption being in the town, sick leave and so one. So medical staff had to spend their time dealing with answering stupid cabin peoples question, and not being able to help their own local community.

Today the government made actual law, that it is forbidden to stay in cabins in mountains now. Even own private cabins.

And of course, cabin owners are very angry about - arguing that they will be healthy and not needing medical care.

This is just one of many stories from Norway these days. We also have to deal with some people going around in shopping mals and coughing at people and claiming they have the virus. It actually also was a case on a train ride.

So, if you feel hopeless about your own people, there are plenty of examples in Norway too.. and we started fighting the virus way to late.

Stay healthy!

 

[moonvine]

Doris, In WA, we dont have any real testing program yet, so our curve here is shallower....it took four days to double....
Interesting that four states closed bars and restaurants....we have not yet.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...us-bars-restaurants-closed-states/5055634002/

Here in Spokane, with our first three cases, there is no panic...grocery stores are busy with a few empty shelves and depleted shelves so far....
Need to search web for recipes and how to make soup with dried beans...pinto, lima, great northern...just some basic spices...

It doubles every 3 days. It increases by 1,024 every 30 days. Here toilet paper can't be gotten. We were at Walgreens (where they are already limiting it to 2 per person) and I was told that the truck comes in on Tuesday and people sit in Walgreens and wait it to come and it is all gone in 2 hours until the next week.

 

[sworddance21]

We are quarantined here in my town in NJ. And curfew - can't be out of the house between 8PM and 5AM even for essentials. Fun times. Our cats are completely confused. I'm filling my day right now will some remote work, but over the weekend I may just have to resort to rearranging my cabinets.

 

[CoyoteChris]

We are quarantined here in my town in NJ. And curfew - can't be out of the house between 8PM and 5AM even for essentials. Fun times. Our cats are completely confused. I'm filling my day right now will some remote work, but over the weekend I may just have to resort to rearranging my cabinets.

You are not alone. California just went to shelter in place state wide...that would be 40 million people.
https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/california-stay-at-home-order-gavin-newsom-coronavirus-014232940.html

 

[CoyoteChris]

BTW, I am not downplaying this pandemic one bit. But this graphic reminded me how sick I got in 1958 with the flu and 100,000 Americans died...the country was much smaller then. My wife got a bad flu in 1968. I keep hoping one of these decades this country will take emergency preperation seriously and spend more money making hospitals, doctors and med. proffesionals and stock piles than it spends on proffesional sports and talking heads.

 

[Ducky]

Soooo.... someone in my office in Midtown tested positive for Covid-19. Most people have been working from home anyway but they're disinfecting everything. In my hometown, a pre-k student tested positive and my parents, who babysit a child who is a year ahead of this kid in school, are rather paranoid. It took a doctor friend to tell my dad that he should only take his temperature twice a day because he had been taking it every half hour. And my sister, who has to travel for work, is LIVID that she can't get a test in DC because she felt ill and the NYC bureau has basically sent everyone down to DC after they found that 2 of their staffers tested positive.

Technically we're not quarantined in NYC (yet) but there's rumors of it. Cuomo says it's not possible unless it's statewide and he's reluctant to do that. De Blasio wants it. They are an old married couple who have stayed married just to see who dies first.

Restaurants are takeout or delivery only and the majority of bars have shut down, although one in my neighborhood is still doing to-go drinks. This is supposed to be allowed only with a food order but the community board seems to be letting it slide. (Restaurants can also do to-go cocktails.) The bartenders are wonderful and I've known them for years. It makes a lovely reason to add on an extra mile of walking during my evening constitutional.

The grocery stores seem to be decently stocked in Brooklyn, except everyone is in a baking craze and I had to go to 5 different stores to find some yeast. The bougie grocery store was out of brownie mix. The meat aisle was mostly cleared out save for some pork, tripe and, most randomly given the circumstances and time of year, a goose. I mean, really, a goose? (Would I take up the challenge of cooking a goose? I would. Would I also regret said challenge after contemplating the amount of bird a goose is and what am I supposed to do with all those leftovers? I most certainly would).

Contrary to popular belief it IS possible to still buy kale and avocados. There is no shortage of either. Expect there to be lots of Alison Roman inspired avocado with everything seasoning and homemade toast posts on instagram.

NYC is also lucky to have robust delivery for both food and groceries. I think many of us are hoping to supplement whatever we panicked bought with what we can get from Fresh Direct if we find out we have to go into legit I have Covid-19 and cannot emerge unto the world for another 14 days.

The bodegas, those lifelines of the outer boroughs with almost everything you could ever want including toilet paper, loosies, tuna fish, and milk, are all well stocked, as are the various green grocers that are only out numbered by the amount of cafes on the north side of my neighborhood and the hairdressers and nail salons on the south side of my neighborhood. The bodega cats are as nonplussed as always.

The friendly dogs in Prospect Park are sad because there are ALL THESE PEOPLE OUT who cannot pet them. Because Prospect Park is happening since it's one of the few areas where you can go that is with people and still without people. After all, it's very unlikely you're going to give or get a virus from someone just by running past them and it's easy to social distance.

FYI: if you're sheltering in place you're still allowed to go to the grocery store, pharmacy, doctor's appointment, or go out for solo exercise, such as walking or running.

The weirdest thing, however, is running into friends on the street and the brief wave of sadness that rushes over our faces when we realize we can't hug each other and do that almost elbow touch elbow flap thing. It seemed hilarious when we were doing that at our local the evening when all the bars closed*, but now that gesture has lost all humor.

*Look, I didn't know a lot of my friends phone numbers because we just all show up. I spent a frantic weekend trying to get contact information for everyone.

Anyway, I have a doctor's appointment near Central Park tomorrow. Since I had taken roll over vacation days, I'm taking the saddest staycation ever, and will be happy to report on what Times Square and Herald Square looks like during the early day of NYC self-isolation.

 

[TontoK]

You know, my wife and I are pretty much homebodies socially. We're staying in as much as possible, much as we always have by choice, but it's still strange not to run to a restaurant when we'd like to get out occasionally. We're not as young as we once were, and we're just being very cautious. Not fearful, just careful.

I work remotely from our home office, so I haven't really had to make that adjustment, but I'm normally on the road three times a week for the job, but not for the foreseeable future.

I wonder how long it will take for us to tire of the joys of homelife.

 

[macy]

do you guys think having epstein barr counts as a pre existing condition or something that could put you at higher risk?

 

[Ducky]

I'm about to figure out a way to virtually slap my sister upside the head because she got a Covid-19 test and is waiting for the results. She wants to go out for a walk later - fine - but doesn't want to draw attention to herself by wearing a mask or gloves despite that she thinks she might be a public health risk. "I'm very smart, I'm very educated." Well, that doesn't matter if you forget that you sneezed then touch your face or something and leave germs on the elevator button only AND are infected. Like get over yourself and actually think of others here.