Will Asada or Kim match Kwan's record for consecutive world podium finishes?

[Mathman]

Will Asada or Kim match Kwan's record for consecutive world podium finishes?

Michelle has a lot of numbers beside her name, but to me her most remarkable feat was standing on the podium at Worlds 9 years in a row, 1996 - 2004.

We have to go back four decades to Sonia Henie (11 consecutive podium finishes, 1926 to 1936) for a better streak.

The reason that streaks like this are so rare in sports is easy to quantify, using probability. If you have a 90% chance of making the podium every year, the chances that you will succeed 9 consecutive times is .90 raised to the ninth power, which is less than 38 per cent.

Mao Asada and Yu-na Kim are off to a good start, both one-for-one in the first World Championship for which they were age eligible. But ice is slippery. Anything can happen, not to mention factors beyond the skaters' control such as injuries. Already the next generation, represented by Caroline Zhang and Mirai Nagasu, are serving notice that future podia might be crowded. Plus, Mao and Yu-na may find other interests and opportunities and choose to bow out after a stellar but reletively short reign, especially if they win win an Olympic gold medal.

Do you think these two stars of the present will continue to dominate for the next decade?

 

[kittyjake5]

Are they capable-yes. Will they - probably not. IMO Michelle's record will be held for quite awhile. How many athletes stay in the sport as long as Kwan, not many.

 

[feraina]

Mao may well do that. But Yu-na I worry about. She's injury-prone, and she has publicly stated a few times that she doesn't really plan to skate competitively beyond 2010.

Plus, as you said, the youngsters are catching up. Jumps-wise, I think Yu-na has already maxed out on her capabilities without courting high injury risks, plus she hasn't really been the model of consistency in competition so far. Caroline Zhang & Rachael Flatt already have the 3/3's like Yu-na, and Mirai is practicing one too. In a few years, they'll probably catch up to her PCS, and then Yu-na will not really have the upper hand anymore.

Mao is maybe a different story. She has stated that she wants to stay for the 2014 olympics, and she's eye-ing Michelle Kwan's records. She has amazing jumping ability, which none of the youngsters at the moment looks likely to surpass any time soon. Plus her steadily improving artistry, I think she probably can realistically aim for world podium finishes for quite a few years in a row.

 

[attyfan]

Whether any skater is likely to match Kwan's record for consecutive world podium finishes is a question for the skaters' respective doctors, simply because only their own doctors, familiar with each skater's individual medical histories, could assess the chances of injury.

The truly amazing thing about Michelle's record is not just the accomplishment itself, but that it happened in a modern context -- triples, instead of the singles and figures of Henie's time; GPs and cheesefests -- which didn't exist for Henie's times, and Michelle would do over 70 shows a tour with COI for years during the post-whack boom!

 

[bekalc]

Mao may well do that. But Yu-na I worry about. She's injury-prone, and she has publicly stated a few times that she doesn't really plan to skate competitively beyond 2010.

Plus, as you said, the youngsters are catching up. Jumps-wise, I think Yu-na has already maxed out on her capabilities without courting high injury risks, plus she hasn't really been the model of consistency in competition so far. Caroline Zhang & Rachael Flatt already have the 3/3's like Yu-na, and Mirai is practicing one too. In a few years, they'll probably catch up to her PCS, and then Yu-na will not really have the upper hand anymore.

Mao is maybe a different story. She has stated that she wants to stay for the 2014 olympics, and she's eye-ing Michelle Kwan's records. She has amazing jumping ability, which none of the youngsters at the moment looks likely to surpass any time soon. Plus her steadily improving artistry, I think she probably can realistically aim for world podium finishes for quite a few years in a row.

Yu-na may be injury prone, but I suspect that a lot of her injuries were due to her boot problems, which have been well fixed. I think that her injuries last year may have been the cause of her inconsistencies. Her stamina wasn't up to par due to her well lack of training... But reports are that Yu-na's injuries have improved, and that she even is getting the triple loop under control. As a junior, Yu-na was actually fairly consistent...

As for her 3/3's, Yu-na's 3/3's are the most consistent in the world. More consistent than Mao's, Miki's, or from reports Caroline or Rachael Flatt's. She didn't miss a single combo all year long.

As for Mao, she does have some jump issues herself (triple salchow, triple toe, and the flutz to name a few) and well her triple axel was not consistent last year, now if that was the brackets or something else, I guess we will find out this year.

 

[feraina]

Yu-na may be injury prone, but I suspect that a lot of her injuries were due to her boot problems, which have been well fixed. I think that her injuries last year may have been the cause of her inconsistencies.

That would be wonderful news indeed, I love her skating. Hopefully with a healthier body and more competition success, she could be tempted to compete beyond 2010.

 

[Wrlmy]

Yu-na may be injury prone, but I suspect that a lot of her injuries were due to her boot problems, which have been well fixed. I think that her injuries last year may have been the cause of her inconsistencies. Her stamina wasn't up to par due to her well lack of training... But reports are that Yu-na's injuries have improved, and that she even is getting the triple loop under control. As a junior, Yu-na was actually fairly consistent...

As for her 3/3's, Yu-na's 3/3's are the most consistent in the world. More consistent than Mao's, Miki's, or from reports Caroline or Rachael Flatt's. She didn't miss a single combo all year long.

As for Mao, she does have some jump issues herself (triple salchow, triple toe, and the flutz to name a few) and well her triple axel was not consistent last year, now if that was the brackets or something else, I guess we will find out this year.

If that's true, I actually believe Yu-na can beat Mao with a small margin when they both skate clean programs. But I am trying to think when was the last time these two ladies skated 7-triple program. In 2007 worlds, Yu-na landed only four triples and Mao landed five clean triples. Back in the day, Kwan easily landed 6 triples not to mention numerous 7-triple programs. If Kim and Asada can bring back their consistency they had in their junior years, they can be on the podium as many times as Kwan, but I am not entirely optimistic. As for youngsters being threats to podium, I do agree about Zhang. She is consistent in her jumps not to mention best-in-the-buisness layback spin and spiral. I have to say everything depends on consistency for aforementioned three ladies. I don't think Nagasu or Flatt is up to par yet.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I dont know, remember either would have to skate beyond the 2014 Olympics to pull it off, and what incentive does either skater have to do that?

 

[feraina]

I dont know, remember either would have to skate beyond the 2014 Olympics to pull it off, and what incentive does either skater have to do that?

If an upstart like Caroline beats them to the gold in 2010, and another (as-yet-unknown) youngster beats them in 2014. Then they might well be spurred on, much as Michelle was by the little teens that stole her Olympic glory.

 

[ks777]

Will Asada or Mao match Kwan's record for consecutive world podium finishes?

I thought Asada and Mao are the same person?

 

[feraina]

If Kim and Asada can bring back their consistency they had in their junior years, they can be on the podium as many times as Kwan, but I am not entirely optimistic.

Yu-na was not really consistent on the junior circuit either. Only her last year (2005-6) was really consistent. The year before she never managed to string together two clean programs in one competition. And last year, we all know how hard a time she had with boots and injuries.

Mao was comparatively more consistent on the junior circuit, as well as her first year (05-06) on the GP circuit. That year, her only meltdown was at the 2006 JW, but that might be because she'd been skating a senior LP all year, and then had to cut it down to the junior version for JW. In 06-07 she had mixed results, but she seemed to pull it together by WC.

Possibly both were dealing with growth spurts. And by all accounts, they both seem to be training well this summer. So this coming season should be quite exciting!

 

[bekalc]

Personally, I'm willing to give skaters a break when it comes to inconsistency be it their first year in juniors/seniors. I think that sometimes it can take awhile for nerves to come into check. For example, Yu-na Kim did a lot better her second year as a Junior. And honestly, as a Junior her problem was never stamina, because Yu-na even her first year did some clean long programs.

As for Mao, I'm a little bit unsure of Mao. Because is her triple axel that consistent? I think that Mao's relying quite heavily on that triple axel, and especially if her triple salchow/tripletoe/ and triple flutz haven't gotten better, she could be seriously screwed.

As for Zhang, while she was more consistent than both Mao and Yu-na her first year in Junior. I'm still unsure about her. Zhang does have some technique issues.. And it frankly doesn't sound like her triple/triple is that consistent. It is way to soon to say that Zhang is consistent.

As for Mirai, I was very big on Mirai, and I still really like her, but I'm concerned about her jump rotations. She needs to clean that up, if she ever wants to hit it big.

 

[Tonichelle]

Will Asada or Mao match Kwan's record for consecutive world podium finishes?

I thought Asada and Mao are the same person?

you caught it before I did !

 

[Mathman]

Will Asada or Mao match Kwan's record for consecutive world podium finishes?

I thought Asada and Mao are the same person?

Oops, heh heh.

 

[cosmos]

Mao may well do that. But Yu-na I worry about. She's injury-prone, and she has publicly stated a few times that she doesn't really plan to skate competitively beyond 2010.

Plus, as you said, the youngsters are catching up. Jumps-wise, I think Yu-na has already maxed out on her capabilities without courting high injury risks, plus she hasn't really been the model of consistency in competition so far. Caroline Zhang & Rachael Flatt already have the 3/3's like Yu-na, and Mirai is practicing one too. In a few years, they'll probably catch up to her PCS, and then Yu-na will not really have the upper hand anymore.

Mao is maybe a different story. She has stated that she wants to stay for the 2014 olympics, and she's eye-ing Michelle Kwan's records. She has amazing jumping ability, which none of the youngsters at the moment looks likely to surpass any time soon. Plus her steadily improving artistry, I think she probably can realistically aim for world podium finishes for quite a few years in a row.

Hi, I am new here. I am happy to write my first post on this thread. I am a huge fan of Yuna.

It is true, she expressed severla times her desire to retire from competition after 2010 and to concentrate on ice show. But, no one knows the future. She may continue. In any case, I don't think she would challenge for the 9 times consecutive Worlds podium. I don't think it is one of her goals.

Yuna's apparent inconsistency last year was due to lack of stamina. She has worked hard to build her physical strength. So, we will see.

As far as jumping ability is concerned, I think Yuna is better than Mao.

 

[Mathman]

Thank you for joining us, Cosmos, and welcome. The more Yu-na Kim fans, the better! :agree:

 

[slutskayafan21]

As far as jumping ability is concerned, I think Yuna is better than Mao.

You must mean you think she is better in terms of quality of jumps. In terms of difficulty Mao is superior, and it isnt even close.

 

[kandidy]

Personally, I'm willing to give skaters a break when it comes to inconsistency be it their first year in juniors/seniors. I think that sometimes it can take awhile for nerves to come into check. For example, Yu-na Kim did a lot better her second year as a Junior. And honestly, as a Junior her problem was never stamina, because Yu-na even her first year did some clean long programs.

As for Mao, I'm a little bit unsure of Mao. Because is her triple axel that consistent? I think that Mao's relying quite heavily on that triple axel, and especially if her triple salchow/tripletoe/ and triple flutz haven't gotten better, she could be seriously screwed.

As for Zhang, while she was more consistent than both Mao and Yu-na her first year in Junior. I'm still unsure about her. Zhang does have some technique issues.. And it frankly doesn't sound like her triple/triple is that consistent. It is way to soon to say that Zhang is consistent.

As for Mirai, I was very big on Mirai, and I still really like her, but I'm concerned about her jump rotations. She needs to clean that up, if she ever wants to hit it big.

You have spoken all the words I wanted to say.

 

[cosmos]

You must mean you think she is better in terms of quality of jumps. In terms of difficulty Mao is superior, and it isnt even close.

Quality, height, distance, jump technic.

If Mao wants to claim her superioty in difficulty, she has to master proper Lutz and Salcow.

 

[Wrlmy]

Mao can claim her DIFFICULTY because she can land more difficult jump, triple axel, and more difficult combination, triple flip-triple loop, compared to Yu-Na's triple flip-triple toe. While Mao lack complete set of triples, she can "claim" superior difficulty over Yu-Na. But I agree that Yu-Na is superior in jump quality/technique department.