2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[flanker]

Yeah, I know she'd win with a landslide (I actually posted about that a few weeks ago) but I actually think it would be more difficult in terms of technical content.

In RusNats, there are two (Liza on a good day, but clearly those were not good days so I counted her out) skaters that can really challenge her technically. In Juniors there are four. She'd still win due to PCS/GOEs, but those juniors won't be stuck in the 7s for long. Zhilina with max tech content and generous-ish GOEs/PCS could reach 167 for the FS, making a pretty good total of like 246; Akatieva with max tech content and generous-ish GOEs/PCS could reach 246; Samodelkina with max tech content and generous-ish GOE/PCS could reach 247; Valieva with a fifth stage performance would be around 246 as well...

I guess I should've specified technically since like Zhilina will get 7s in PCS and Akatieva and Samodelkina 8s while Valieva will enjoy 9s. So, yeah of course she would win since she's objectively the best there in terms of being a full package, but technically? The amount of quads/3As we'll most likely see at junior nats is 12 by 4 people (or maybe 14 at max). At RusNats it was 10 by four people. And the level of consistency on those 3As have been rather high...

Well I'm sorry, this can be the first time the other way, but so far Veronika didn't show herself very stable with the high tech content in a competition. I don't see her scoring in high 80s or above for TES yet. If we talk about the scoring, Sofia Samodelkina scored 156 in the FS (though with bonuses) at her cup stage and I think only her and the other Sofia will be able to score around that mark at this year's junior nationals, while I bet clean Kamila would score much higher (not 174 as in seniors thanks to different scoring and no choreo sequence but somewhere around 165-170 is probable).

Also I can see Eteri's team planning to not leave Sofia A. in the position of the leader yet and carrying the weight of such position but would want to strenghten the junior team with a trump card

I see the argument in some comments with making a spot for Daria Sadkova at junior nationals instead some ladies already competing in seniros, but she is still 12 and not a part of the team even the whole season (incl. not having the summer preparation) so she will have much time next season if this time she won't be among the 18 qualified (BTW Kamila also wasn't present at junior nationals at 12 and nothing has slipped out of her hands).

But this all is only an "academic theory", whatever happens it will be worth watching.

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

Yes, Akatieva has a very solid 3A, and MORE solid than Kami's. But I think Kami's 3A is more stable than people think. And yes she fell in RusNats, but in practise the percentage is apparently very high. So that was the thing.

If Maya and Anna F are not invited to go to the team event then I suppose they could go. Maya doesn't need to though, because I think she's in the National team and GP for next season. No reason to fight with the juniors. But could they still give Anna JGP spots?

With the amount of rising juniors next season I don't know if Anna will get JGP spots... maybe she can get a senior challenger? Or maybe if she does go to junior nats and she does really good she can throw her hat in for senior GP?

Yeah I was assuming Kami had high 3A success rates in practice because Team Tutberidze is nothing if not excellent at strategizing. For the team competition, is it SP and FS like China's or just FS like Japan's?

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

Well I'm sorry, this can be the first time the other way, but so far Veronika didn't show herself very stable with the high tech content in a competition. I don't see her scoring in high 80s or above for TES yet. If we talk about the scoring, Sofia Samodelkina scored 156 in the FS (though with bonuses) at her cup stage and I think only her and the other Sofia will be able to score around that mark at this year's junior nationals, while I bet clean Kamila would score much higher (not 174 as in seniors thanks to different scoring and no choreo sequence but somewhere around 165-170 is probable).

Also I can see Eteri's team planning to not leave Sofia A. in the position of the leader yet and carrying the weight of such position but would want to strenghten the junior team with a trump card

I see the argument in some comments with making a spot for Daria Sadkova at junior nationals instead some ladies already competing in seniros, but she is still 12 and not a part of the team even the whole season (incl. not having the summer preparation) so she will have much time next season if this time she won't be among the 18 qualified (BTW Kamila also wasn't present at junior nationals at 12 and nothing has slipped out of her hands).

But this all is only an "academic theory", whatever happens it will be worth watching.

I did calculations with an online scorer, and it would be extremely close if Kamila had two/three falls across two programs (but I think she'd still win) but with her RusNats skates she'd probably win even if the others were clean with more difficult tech content. And to be fair, I guess I can't expect Veronika to skate not only clean but with excellent quality elements since she does often have bad landings and step sequence 2s. But it only goes to show how much potential these young skaters have... hopefully we get a JGP next year so they can display those talents.

The chance that these young novices will skate clean is pretty tiny, and none of them have had 2 clean skates thus far. But wouldn't it be great if they all pulled out clean skate at Junior Nats (like at Senior Nats)? I expect some upgrades in tech content but honestly, if Kamila's not there, I don't think the majority of them need the upgrades. Like with Sasha, I think skating clean and gaining confidence is probably better.

 

[colormyworld240]

Implying the fear of defeat in junior competition on the skaters is not my way how to support them. Both Sofias are strong contenders but Kamila at full power as we saw her at nationals is damn good and this is just underestimating her true power. And honestly it's also underestimating the power of Anna and Sasha if someone implies that currently Sofias are more serious competitors for her than the top seniors

Kamila did big improvement in presentation where Sofias currently still lack on her. In the two or more years it can be different but in this moment clean Kamila can be hardly beaten by the juniors. She can have a bad day but such possibility is there everytime no matter on the level of competition. After all any competitor must have adequate level of self-confidence, not to start being afraid of losing.

People tend to forget how tough, competitive and determined those girls are, despite their (deceptive ) fragile appearance. If they weren't they wouldn't be so damn good.

Akatieva is a very good performer and she is improving as well - the SP is a new style for her. If they were the same age and you were judging their skating and not how old they are, would you say the same? Kamila definitely improved at nationals (in the free, though she looked visibly nervous in the short after the fall) but Sofia is always performing even with mistakes and she has done different programs very well. She reminds me a lot of Anna actually, who I think as a novice was better at performing than Kamila is now.

Because Sofia has a more stable (and much bigger) 3A, I think if they were judged to the same standard ie. both juniors, she'd actually hold her own and challenge Kamila. Especially if she has the 3A in the free too. Kamila has better spins and a better 4T (when landed well) but Sofia's isn't bad, and she has a much better 3A and great presentation. They both have good skating skills but Kamila has more speed.

 

[Giltedge]

...[slish-slash]... ...The amount of quads/3As we'll most likely see at junior nats is 12 by 4 people (or maybe 14 at max). At RusNats it was 10 by four people. And the level of consistency on those 3As have been rather high...

Not to mention other possibilities, albeit slight: Adelya and Liza B, both quietly training for quads.

 

[Jontor]

That makes me wonder how they‘ll make up the National team for next year. Right now, there‘s just so many candidates. Trusova, Shcherbakova, Valieva and Kostornaya, who‘ll surely be in. Then there‘s Tuktamysheva, who only finished 7th at RusNats but won Rostelecom, is a former World Champion and able to land 3A and 4T. Daria and Maiia are promising juniors who finished 4th and 5th at Senior Nationals respectively. Zagitova and Medvedeva are wildcards who could, theoretically, return.

I fear that someone like Nugumanova will get the short end of the stick here,

Totally agree, I fear too that Nugumanova will get nothing next season, which will be really really sad.

My fear is that RusFed will just ignore this season and go on old World Standings. Which means Samodurova is safe because she still lives on her European win. But is this fair? I love Sofia, but she just haven't delivered what is needed since then. And the likes of Nugumanova, Tsibinova and Talalaikina all beat her at Nationals. (And Nugumanova also beat her at Rostelecom, the others didn't have the chance). These girls need international recognition too! And GP assignments!

And as much as I hate to say it - how long are RusFed going to support Medvedeva and Zagitova - two skaters that hasn't showed us anything this year. If they get National Team spots before Nugumanova I will be really disappointed.

We'll see what happens. I can't imagine HOW the RusFed will choose. I'm afraid though I will not like it...

 

[sinus]

we heard about what they were working on, skating skills, how the flutz situation was going, what areas of weakness was being addressed, what was challenging... and I kinda expected to hear same things about Sasha and more Specifically Aliona

Do we hear this kind of news about Rika Kihira, Nathan Chen, Papadakis\Ciseron training?

 

[Amei]

Totally agree, I fear too that Nugumanova will get nothing next season, which will be really really sad.

My fear is that RusFed will just ignore this season and go on old World Standings. Which means Samodurova is safe because she still lives on her European win. But is this fair? I love Sofia, but she just haven't delivered what is needed since then. And the likes of Nugumanova, Tsibinova and Talalaikina all beat her at Nationals. These girls need international recognition too! And GP assignments!

And as much as I hate to say it - how long are RusFed going to support Medvedeva and Zagitova - two skaters that hasn't showed us anything this year. If they get National Team spots before Nugumanova I will be really disappointed.

We'll see what happens. I can't imagine HOW the RusFed will choose. I'm afraid though I will not like it...

At best Medvedeva and Zagitova should be on the reserve national team, neither have competed this season (for different reasons), last year Kolyada had to miss the whole season due to injury/illness (the sinus issue he's had for years) and was relegated to the reserve team.

This year they had 9 national team members, 6 on the main team and 3 on the reserve, and I feel like that is pretty typical number.
Shcherbakova, Trusova, Kostornaia, Valieva, Tuktamysheva are likely safe on the main team based on their season results so far. What I think would be fair to do for what is likely the remaining team spots -- go based off the averages of results for the season and the skaters with the highest finishing spots gets on the team or do it for everyone top 6 are the main team and bottom 3 on the reserve team. maybe give everyone their lowest finishing competition gets thrown out of the tabulation to allow for mulligans and missing a competition.

 

[Amei]

If they're going to do a team event, why not be creative and have some kind of theme to it? Or have everyone come out with one new program?

[edit]

Figure skating promoters really need to watch out for oversaturating events without offering something really new to the audience. Which is why I think the whole figure skating season needs to be revamped to encourage more programs per year while making it more normal to reuse older programs.

I remember about 20 years ago they did improv skating at an exhibition where skaters "supposedly" were given their music only a couple hours before they skated.

 

[Jontor]

They earn good money and Rusfed gets good share of that money, don't they?

Nugumanova is a beautiful skater. but at this point I don't see her having a brighter future than Evgenia or Alina... Why would Rusfed want to replace their highest earning skaters with some no name skater that (unfortunately) has no bright future?
Alina and Evgenia are not just two random skaters to easily scratch from the list. They are very well appreciated by international judges. And they have proven time and time again that they are very reliable skaters. Nugumanova, as beautiful as she is, doesn't look as reliable.

As much as I hate what you are saying, I agree with you. It's true. The Figure Skating world love their stars. And Medvedeva and Zagitova are the brightest stars Russia have right now...so why not profit from that?

So, Nugumanova, as lovely as she is, I know she won't ever get into that Zag/Med territory. But at the same time...she is probably better than both of them right now! I don't like the situation, but it is understandable. The stars have priority. Period.

The thing with National Team appointments is that it is a huge boost to your career potential. You get more chances to show what you are good for. We can see that this year when Guliakova and Samodurova had plenty of opportunities to deliver. Have they delivered? That's another question.

Personally, I would scrap both Samodurova and Guliakova from the National Team. All the Rukavicin girls and Tsibinova are better than them at this point. But the thing is...Russian ladies just have too many great skaters, and unfortunately there isn't room for them all.

 

[colormyworld240]

As much as I hate what you are saying, I agree with you. It's true. The Figure Skating world love their stars. And Medvedeva and Zagitova are the brightest stars Russia have right now...so why not profit from that?

So, Nugumanova, as lovely as she is, I know she won't ever get into that Zag/Med territory. But at the same time...she is probably better than both of them right now! I don't like the situation, but it is understandable. The stars have priority. Period.

I think it's just practical. RusFed gets a portion of their skaters' earnings, and Alina and Evgenia bring in huge earnings. They (presumably) use this to fund their skaters, organize competitions, etc.

It's unfortunate for skaters like Nugumanova who are doing better this season, but don't have the potential to earn much and won't challenge for worlds/olympics. Skaters make their earnings through wining competitions and (to a much larger extent) endorsements. Liza is unlikely to consistently win big competitions and she doesn't have the accomplishments to secure a huge sponsor. On the other hand, you have Sasha and Anna who already have contracts with huge sporting companies and Alena who has the titles to get one. That's another reason why it's so important for skaters to do well and build their reputation consistently.

It's also difficult to say whether it's unfair. From a competitive standpoint for the skaters, absolutely. But there are so many other factors in the sport. We know RusFed funds most of their national team members fully (Anna's dad said they don't pay anything for her skating career now) and that money has to come from somewhere.

 

[RatedPG]

I predict the National Team is locked for next year and will be: 3A + 3W + 3J

3A = Anna, Alexandra and Alena
3W = Elizaveta, Alina and Evgenia (all three have won WC)
3J = Kamila, Dasha, Maia (all three are Juniors and placed in top 5 at Nationals)

If one of them is injured or retires, alt. is Elizaveta N, Sofia S or Ksenia S (if she skates well in a Russian Cup this year)

 

[Kittosuni]

And as much as I hate to say it - how long are RusFed going to support Medvedeva and Zagitova - two skaters that hasn't showed us anything this year. If they get National Team spots before Nugumanova I will be really disappointed.

We'll see what happens. I can't imagine HOW the RusFed will choose. I'm afraid though I will not like it...

Get ready to be disappointed because there is no way Rusfed is dropping off Med or Zagi in favor of Nugumanova who is having a relatively successful domestic season by her standards.

If she is lights out beating everyone then she is definitely more than deserving of a spot in the national team but she can't even crack the top spot or even top 3 convincingly in these domestic competitions while skating at her relatively "best shape". Maybe a reserve spot but still doubtful.

 

[brakes]

Choosing team for Euros/Worlds is one thing, but leaving 6th place Nats finisher (3rd place senior finisher!) out of National team funding for the whole next year would very unfair, dirty move. Rules say 6 top at nats get there.
Watching Nugumanova's Insta and Tiktok, you can see how important getting on the team was for her. You just can't mess with people's livelihood matters like that, I imagine she could easily sue them before civil court and win.

 

[flanker]

I did calculations with an online scorer, and it would be extremely close if Kamila had two/three falls across two programs (but I think she'd still win) but with her RusNats skates she'd probably win even if the others were clean with more difficult tech content. And to be fair, I guess I can't expect Veronika to skate not only clean but with excellent quality elements since she does often have bad landings and step sequence 2s. But it only goes to show how much potential these young skaters have... hopefully we get a JGP next year so they can display those talents.

The chance that these young novices will skate clean is pretty tiny, and none of them have had 2 clean skates thus far. But wouldn't it be great if they all pulled out clean skate at Junior Nats (like at Senior Nats)? I expect some upgrades in tech content but honestly, if Kamila's not there, I don't think the majority of them need the upgrades. Like with Sasha, I think skating clean and gaining confidence is probably better.

Akatieva is a very good performer and she is improving as well - the SP is a new style for her. If they were the same age and you were judging their skating and not how old they are, would you say the same? Kamila definitely improved at nationals (in the free, though she looked visibly nervous in the short after the fall) but Sofia is always performing even with mistakes and she has done different programs very well. She reminds me a lot of Anna actually, who I think as a novice was better at performing than Kamila is now.

Because Sofia has a more stable (and much bigger) 3A, I think if they were judged to the same standard ie. both juniors, she'd actually hold her own and challenge Kamila. Especially if she has the 3A in the free too. Kamila has better spins and a better 4T (when landed well) but Sofia's isn't bad, and she has a much better 3A and great presentation. They both have good skating skills but Kamila has more speed.

I'm replying to those comments in one reaction, because I think it's basically about the same.

First, I'm in no way underestimating the juniors (Sofias, Veronika, Adeliya...) or not considering them great. And you can hardly suspect me of not being fan of Sofia Akatieva Second, it's not the age itself, hey I'm not the one who was defending the statement that 14 y. o. shouldn't receive the PCS as 16 y. o. I'm not judging them the way that Kamila is 14 and therefore is better than the younger ones. I simply think that her SP at cup stages and FS at nationals show her improvement in performance skills and overall quality. And it's only relative, that doesn't mean that Sofias and the others aren't good. Third, as I've said, I was talking primarily about Kamila herself, who seems to be very underestimated here suddenly, esp. comparing with how people were talking about her two years ago when they saw her Girl on the Ball program. It's like people become enthusiastic for someone easily, but their sympathy doesn't last long and soon finds another "victim" (and this way I don't see the sympathy for the current juniors would last long as well).

 

[nussnacker]

I imagine she could easily sue them before civil court and win.

No she can’t, we all know it.

I’m not even sure the rules imply no exceptions can ever be made, but even if they were, going into a legal battle with Rusfed would finish her career that same day for good.

Nugumanova doesn’t have a lot to offer to Rusfed, she won’t get a GP, she won’t be a candidate for important competitions, she might be only getting challenger tops, not something Rusfed would be sacrificing their star athletes for.
She isn’t likely to build on from her current tech content and if Rusfed wants to invest into their future, they’re more likely to support Ksenia Sinitsina, who has much higher tech and pcs potential.

 

[Thrashergurl]

Does anyone see Zagitova coming back to competitive skating though? She isn’t in competition/fighting shape, and she seems very happy now. She seems to be feeling more confident in front of the camera and focused on her future. She never seemed really enjoy competing. Medvedeva seems a question mark. I don’t know that she or Alina will ever be able to compete with the younger girls, yet Medvedeva seems to want to try. If she can get healthy and her body heals, then I see no reason for her not to. Even if you hate her for your own personal reasons, you can’t deny she’s the most accomplished of the ladies currently competing, and one of the most popular internationally as well as liked somewhat with Russian fans.

 

[macy]

Does anyone see Zagitova coming back to competitive skating though? She isn’t in competition/fighting shape, and she seems very happy now. She seems to be feeling more confident in front of the camera and focused on her future. She never seemed really enjoy competing. Medvedeva seems a question mark. I don’t know that she or Alina will ever be able to compete with the younger girls, yet Medvedeva seems to want to try. If she can get healthy and her body heals, then I see no reason for her not to. Even if you hate her for your own personal reasons, you can’t deny she’s the most accomplished of the ladies currently competing, and one of the most popular internationally as well as liked somewhat with Russian fans.

at this point IMO it's unlikely we will see Alina compete again. she does seem really happy with what she's doing. returning to competition form is a pretty tall task, but of course she can always surprise us. i'd love to see her come back even if she never contends for titles again.

 

[Lzbee]

It would be nice to see Alina competing again. She made a real breakthrough in artistry last year with her Me Voy program imo. I rewatched her Olympic FS recently and it struck me how beautiful her Rippon jumps are. Her arms are actually make a more balletic round shape than modern Rippon jumps. A lot of skaters do the jump with their arms going straight up which I find less pleasing to the eye.

That said, I hope she only comes back if she wants to and is not pressured by anyone.

 

[Decoder]

I'm replying to those comments in one reaction, because I think it's basically about the same.

First, I'm in no way underestimating the juniors (Sofias, Veronika, Adeliya...) or not considering them great. And you can hardly suspect me of not being fan of Sofia Akatieva Second, it's not the age itself, hey I'm not the one who was defending the statement that 14 y. o. shouldn't receive the PCS as 16 y. o. I'm not judging them the way that Kamila is 14 and therefore is better than the younger ones. I simply think that her SP at cup stages and FS at nationals show her improvement in performance skills and overall quality. And it's only relative, that doesn't mean that Sofias and the others aren't good. Third, as I've said, I was talking primarily about Kamila herself, who seems to be very underestimated here suddenly, esp. comparing with how people were talking about her two years ago when they saw her Girl on the Ball program. It's like people become enthusiastic for someone easily, but their sympathy doesn't last long and soon finds another "victim" (and this way I don't see the sympathy for the current juniors would last long as well).

Indeed. Kamila was probably "overshadowed" a bit by Anna, because Anna's performance was so unexpected and overwhelming. I guess Eteri's bet at Nationals was on Kamila, and once Kamila's score was out, Eteri must be thinking "mission accomplished", and be very happy. If Kamila goes to Junior Nationals, she will win, no question, although I would prefer her not going, because she is skating as a senior now.