Can Czisny make the Grand Prix final?

[Mathman]

Last year, Sarah Meier made the Grand Prix finals with a 1st and a 4th. Suguri had two 2nd’s. Asada and Kim each had a 1st and a 3rd.

Nobody got two 1st’s. (But Ando and Sebestyen breezed into the finals with a 1st and a 2nd).

Can Alissa beat Kostner, Rochette, Poikyo, Zhang, and Liang at Cup of China, winning 2nd to Kim’s 1st?

Then get first or second at NHK against Ando and Kostner?

 

[flying camel]

It would be so nice if she came to skate. If she skated her best I think she could beat them all. But unfortunately the only thing you can count on Alissa to do is spin. But maybe she will surprise me. She seems to skate well when people lose faith in her.

 

[pista04]

I would go insane for her! She is, currently, my favorite skater. In every sport, I pick that one person to root for through everything, and since Sasha's break, she's taken that position. Of course, I have backups, but shes my number 1.

As for if she can do it: yes. She'll find trouble against Rochette, maybe Liang, and potentially Zhang. But, I think she can atleast medal at Cup of China, if not take the silver.

 

[R.D.]

umm...No.

 

[krenseby]

I would go insane for her! She is, currently, my favorite skater. In every sport, I pick that one person to root for through everything, and since Sasha's break, she's taken that position. Of course, I have backups, but shes my number 1.

As for if she can do it: yes. She'll find trouble against Rochette, maybe Liang, and potentially Zhang. But, I think she can atleast medal at Cup of China, if not take the silver.

Well, I think, in her case, her absolute best outing, which means landing all her planned jumps without bobbles, botched landings, or underrotations would give her a pretty good chance to make the GP final.

But heck, if Czisny gains any measure of consistency, the whole GP final question would seem irrelevant to me. I'd watch those programs, savor them, and be incredbily overjoyed at the quality of skating!

 

[R.D.]

Actually the question should be, Can Meissner make the GPF? Remember, she's never been there before IIRC. Now, with a win at SA, she totally would have to flop at TEB to erase any chances to make the GPF. Even if she finishes 3rd, she still has a legit shot.

Czisny's competition is just too tough. No way is she going this year. In fact it might be better in the short run if she didn't make it...more time for Nats.

 

[Wrlmy]

I really hope she does. I'll be so happy for her!! Seems like this year's CoC is really packed. Kim, Suguri, Kostner, Zhang, Liang, Poykio, Sebestyen.. and of course Czisny! It's going to be the toughest single competition this year. IMO, aside from Yuna Kim, Czinsy has potential to outskate everyone else (perhaps I'm biased ). But Sebestyen and Suguri are on downhill of their long career, Kostner is extremely inconsistent, Liang and Poykio have never been on top of any international competition, have they? So I want to see Kim, Czisny, Zhang/Kostner podium.

 

[Mathman]

Actually the question should be, Can Meissner make the GPF?

Meissner's competition at Eric Bompard (besides Asada) is Sarah Meier, then Mira Leung, Aki Sawada, and Ashley Wagner. She should be a shoe-in (ice is slippery! ) for second.

Czisny's competition is just too tough. No way is she going this year.

Here's how she could do it. Asada and Kim win both of their events. They're in with two 1st's.

Ando and Meissner are in with a 1st and a 2nd (giving Miki NHK -- not certain! --and Kimmie second in France).

Nakano and Rochette face each other twice. If the same person gets second twice and the other third, one or the other is out.

Kostner and Czisny also face each other twice. If they split and each ends up with a 2nd and a 3rd, then it goes to tie-breaker between these two for the last spot. (This assumes Poykio or Suguri doesn't upset the apple cart, LOL.)

 

[Tinymavy15]

Well, I think, in her case, her absolute best outing, which means landing all her planned jumps without bobbles, botched landings, or underrotations would give her a pretty good chance to make the GP final.

Agreed. right now it's not about making th final. She went to worlds last year, a big thing for her, and I was really happy for her, but as usual, her luck at nationals did not last. For Alissa it's not about making the final, but about doing two clean programs, or at least a clean and a almost clean. Alissa is a beautiful skater with a lot of talent and beautiful line and wonderful spins, but she is worse than sasha about skating clean when it counts.

 

[chuckm]

Can Alissa beat Kostner, Rochette, Poikyo, Zhang, and Liang at Cup of China, winning 2nd to Kim’s 1st?

Then get first or second at NHK against Ando and Kostner?

She can't beat Rochette at CoC because Rochette isn't skating in China.

She can beat Kostner if Kostner has one of her meltdowns. If Kostner is 'on' and lands her jumps, no way can Czisny beat her.

She's beaten Liang before, but Liang has also beaten her.

I don't think she can beat Zhang if the caller doesn't downgrade so many of Caroline's jumps. But with a tough caller, Czisny is just as much of an underrotater as Caroline.

The bottom line is it all depends which Alissa shows up: the one who lands most of her jumps, or the one who falls on them.

As for NHK, she has to get by Meier (who's been remarkably consistent the last two years) as well as Ando and Kostner.

 

[R.D.]

Sorry...I just don't see Alyssa pulling off that feat. Especially with her having to go all the way to China, and we all know she never does well after travelling long distances. (Remember GPF in Japan?) That said, there are times when Kostner has imploded early in the season as well.

If by some mind-blowing act of g** I end up being wrong, I'll be the first to come forward and admit I was off. But as far as I'm concerned, it ain't happening.

I recall saying earlier that this season was Meissner's best shot at making the GPF. Before, she always faced the toughest competition. At SA she had Ando, and at TEB she has Asada, so in some case this year she's getting off real easy. Assuming no win at TEB (2nd or 3rd, let's say), it would only take statistics to bump her off.

JMHO

ETA: frickin' 10 people posted at once (lol) so instead of posting again I'll just attach statements:

Alissa is a beautiful skater with a lot of talent and beautiful line and wonderful spins, but she is worse than sasha about skating clean when it counts.

oh god. Don't even BEGIN to compare the two as far as consistency is concerned. It's just not fair. Meltdowns? Czisny-check. Cohen-? On/Off Days? Czisny-check. Cohen-fairly consistent in botching an average of one and a half jumps in a freeskate. Solid shorts? Cohen-check. Czisny-makes mistakes here, too.

Anyway, this is completely irrelevant to the discussion at hand.

The bottom line is it all depends which Alissa shows up: the one who lands most of her jumps, or the one who falls on them.

Exactly. But I've only seen the "good" Alyssa three times: once at SA '05, again at SC '05, and again at Nats '07. The other times the "bad" Alyssa came out. THAT's someone who is inconsistent: you don't know WHAT is going to happen once they hit the ice.

Think of her as the Rex Grossman of Figure Skating.

 

[Jasper]

Those are her draws? She's screwed. I don't even care how she does in the GP circuit; I'd rather her peak for Nationals and go to Worlds.

 

[Wrlmy]

I, too, am skeptical of Czisny's chances at CoC and NHK. But only a few top ladies at the two events are consistent. At CoC, only Suguri and Caroline can be called consistent, but Suguri is past her prime IMO, and Caroline can be held down for her jumps even if she stays on her feet. At NHK, Except for Meier, there is no consistent top lady. Yes, I'm pretty sure Miki can easily beat Alissa, but who knows? Well, I just love Alissa too much to say anything bad/omenous about her

 

[krenseby]

I, too, am skeptical of Czisny's chances at CoC and NHK. But only a few top ladies at the two events are consistent. At CoC, only Suguri and Caroline can be called consistent, but Suguri is past her prime IMO, and Caroline can be held down for her jumps even if she stays on her feet. At NHK, Except for Meier, there is no consistent top lady. Yes, I'm pretty sure Miki can easily beat Alissa, but who knows? Well, I just love Alissa too much to say anything bad/omenous about her

Wrmly, I think you are working on theory "Even pretty good skaters can have a bad day and leave room for Czisny to come out on top."

Yeah, that does mean she has theoretical chances to make the podium at both GP events and make it into the GP final.

But I don't want to see Ando, Meier, Suguri, and Zhang screw up, so if the fates decree that Alyssa has to win, I'd rather see it happen via a miraculous performance on her part rather than thanks to a meltdown of the other top players.

Think back to 2002 Olympics and Sarah Hughes' chances. Even many of her fans wouldn't have wished for Sarah to win by having Kwan and Slutskaya crash. That's what I call "a Pyrrhic victory"

 

[Wrlmy]

Wrmly, I think you are working on theory "Even pretty good skaters can have a bad day and leave room for Czisny to come out on top."

Yeah, that does mean she has theoretical chances to make the podium at both GP events and make it into the GP final.

But I don't want to see Ando, Meier, Suguri, and Zhang screw up, so if the fates decree that Alyssa has to win, I'd rather see it happen via a miraculous performance on her part rather than thanks to a meltdown of the other top players.

Think back to 2002 Olympics and Sarah Hughes' chances. Even many of her fans wouldn't have wished for Sarah to win by having Kwan and Slutskaya crash. That's what I call "a Pyrrhic victory"

Oh, I completely agree with you, and I get your point. I'm not praying for other skaters to have less than stellar performances so that Czisny can sneak in. I'm just saying let's not pre-decide that Czisny will have lots of mistakes based on her past results. Perhaps I didn't make my point clear. There are only a few skaters who can consistenly put good/perfect performances. True, Czisny has been more inconsistent than most top ladies. But, let's not count her out just because she had been inconsistent. After all, she made GPF before. Considering only six skaters make to GPF per year, that's an excellent accomplishment.

 

[krenseby]

Oh, I completely agree with you, and I get your point. I'm not praying for other skaters to have less than stellar performances so that Czisny can sneak in. I'm just saying let's not pre-decide that Czisny will have lots of mistakes based on her past results. Perhaps I didn't make my point clear. There are only a few skaters who can consistenly put good/perfect performances. True, Czisny has been more inconsistent than most top ladies. But, let's not count her out just because she had been inconsistent. After all, she made GPF before. Considering only six skaters make to GPF per year, that's an excellent accomplishment.

Yeah, I see your point that she doesn't deserve to be counted on. But Czisny got up in the typical media cycle of "let's hype up a skater and see if he/she fulfills our high expectations. Once the skater underperfroms, let's write him or her off."

 

[heyang]

Didn't Kwan qualify for a GPF one year by winning and competing only at SA? I don't recall if she was edged out or not, but I do remember that there was definitely a possiblity since various top skaters had bad performances that kept them off the podium that year.

 

[Mathman]

Yes, I think that was 2002 Skate America. Michelle didn't want to do the Grand Prix at all, but she was coerced into it when Sarah Hughes withdrew with an injury and they were afraid the event would bomb without an American headliner.

This was never explicitly admitted by USFS or the ISU, but I think part of the deal that Michelle brokered was that she would not have to compete in any other GP events or the final.

She got 15 points for her win, which put her in the finals (I forgot the details, but I think Elena Liashenko got a 3rd and a 6th in her two scoring events, which put her behind Michelle. Someone -- Onda? also withdrew with an injury, I believe).

Anyway, I'm pretty sure Michelle did qualify for the finals, but she declined to skate. Cinquanta didn't like it much -- and he really didn't like it when Plushenko tried the same trick the next year -- leading to a nasty ultimatum from the ISU to USFS and the other federations. (The ISU can only bully national feredartions, not individual skaters, LOL.)

This couldn't happen now, because the GP points have been adjusted to give a little more credit for second, third, etc., compared to first, plus the first tie breaker is total CoP points. It seems remote to imagine that a skater would earn as many points in one event as someone else does in two.

 

[MissIzzy]

Well, what with the way the judges are treating the American skaters this year, it looks like no. :disapp:

 

[gio]

Well, what with the way the judges are treating the American skaters this year, it looks like no. :disapp:

Oh come on!!!! From what I have seen in the first two GPs the judges are treating all the skaters equally! It has never been this fair.

I hope it continues like that!!!

Anyway, did you forget that Meissner won a gold at SA and Zhang won the bronze???

Did you forget that Belbin/Agosto won a gold at SA??

The skaters who deserved it, have won. Fair and square. Nobody is looking at the flag.