2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[Vemvane]

Please make your analyze after each cup!!!

Thank you Vv for such amazingly detailed analysis of many skaters.
It's better reading your comments and Analysis than that of sports.ru.

You flatter me! I am a humble newbie, who can't skate to save my life, and who still needs the score box to be secure in my identification of the jumps! I'm just prolix, and enjoy gushing over these amazing young skaters and sharing my reactions with other people who love them too.

 

[Fluture]

Anna will get some reputation bonus. She's a 3 time RusNats champion and already her PCS were behind really only Aliona and Rika and essentially almost tied there anyway. And that was before she became a RusNats champion for the 3rd time and she might be the reigning World's champion.

And no, if the OG were held tomorrow it's probably Anna's - depending on what Sasha and Rika do. As Kamila is too young to an Olympics to be tomorrow.

She‘ll get a reputation bonus, sure, but not over Valieva. Mark my words. She‘s already being pushed by the fed as the favorite. Medvedeva went into the last Olympic season with a much more impressive international track record and even her PCS and GOE advantage was largely gone by the time the OG came around. And Zagitova, at the time, wasn‘t as well known as Valieva is at this point. Shcherbakova, as a World and 3 times RusNats Champ might start out with a slight advantage - but I don‘t expect it to be substantial by any means once the big competitions come around. With this being entirely dependent on Valieva performing as expected, of course.

And yeah, that was stupidly worded, sorry. I meant that if all skaters were to compete at the OG in their current form, it would be Valieva‘s too lose. Next season might look different as things tend to change rapidly. But unless Shcherbakova gets a 3A - which is possible, I guess - or Valieva grows/injures herself, I don‘t see her as the favorite by any means. Doesn’t matter much, though, playing the underdog suits her anyway, that‘s how she‘s scored all her big wins up to now. And handling the pressure and expectations of being the favored winner will not be easy for Valieva either. Historically, the expected winners rarely end up walking away with the Gold. Ask literally anyone in the last Olympics, other than probably Yuna Kim in 2010.

 

[Lechat]

I’m impressed by Dasha´s consistancy and improvement. She´s so flawless this season and I can see her landing a 3A next season. Go girl I hope to see you for the next olympics.

As always, Kamila rocks she really owns that SP even though it was a little bit off compared to the one in Chanel Cup. Her 3A is gorgeous

Maia is really classy, that program suits her, it’s a pity for the 2A but she did a good job

Bravo Liza it’s not easy to challenge girls who are ten years younger than you, it’s a well deserved third place and honestly, you also deserve the worlds.

As for Alena, the new program suits her more I also like her new costume. It’s not easy since she was off during two competitions in a raw. She’s not in her best shape yet and maybe she needs more time to recover. It was not her best SP but she was mesmerizing a lot more than her two previous competitions

 

[chasingneverland]

She‘ll get an reputation bonus, sure, but not over Valieva. Mark my words. She‘s already being pushed by the fed as the favorite. Medvedeva went into the last Olympic season with a much more impressive international track record and even her PCS and GOE advantage was largely gone by the time the OG came around. And Zagitova, at the time, wasn‘t as well known as Valieva is at this point.

And yeah, that was stupidly worded, sorry. I meant that if all skaters were to compete at the OG in their current form, it would be Valieva‘s too lose. Next season might look different as things tend to change rapidly. But unless Shcherbakova gets a 3A - which is possible, I guess - or Valieva grows/injures herself, I don‘t see her as the favorite by any means. Doesn’t matter much, though, playing the underdog suits her anyway, that‘s how she‘s scored all her big wins up to now. And handling the pressure and expectations of being the favored winner will not be easy for Valieva either. Historically, the expected winners rarely end up walking away with the Gold. Ask literally anyone in the last Olympics, other than probably Yuna Kim in 2010.

Anna is training a 4T and a 3A. But I think she needs to get her 3 quad program back first but I wouldn't be surprised to see that at World's.

And at current form Anna could still win as it stands now. If she brings back her third quad Anna has the BV advantage. If she doesn't it's close. Anna has about a 3 point advantage in the FS and probably a 3-4 point advantage (over both programs) in PCS. Kamila has a SP advantage though with the 3A.

 

[Fluture]

Anna is training a 4T and a 3A. But I think she needs to get her 3 quad program back first but I wouldn't be surprised to see that at World's.

Worlds is hers to lose even with a two quad program, unless Trusova and Kihira really show something spectacular. Didn‘t know about the 4T, though, I thought she had to give it up after her injury?

 

[Amei]

Well, congratulations to Liza on her Worlds ticket!

I‘m devastated for Aliona but she tried. The spins, lutz and 2A all didn‘t look bad, I think the bad fall in the warm up just rattled her.

The program‘s nice in theory but still quite empty. If she does it with her normal skills restored, it could be incredible. But now? She just doesn‘t have the stamina yet to pull off the step sequence to the fast music, even without taking the combo mistake into consideration.

Debuting this here was a huge mistake, imo. Too much at stake, too much pressure. These are the programs she should have gotten at the beginning of the season.

Also, I‘m sorry but her training situation concerns me. Plushenko looks like he doesn‘t care at all about her (or like he has zero plan) and Rozanov‘s just inexperienced. Obviously she was unhappy at Eteri‘s, so she had to leave. The thing is, though, that there is a stunning lack of other high level coaches available for a country so totally dominating the sport. CSKA seem to have dropped entirely (with the exception of Davydov, I guess, but he already has a dozen other skaters), so who else is there really in Moscow? At least at Plushenko‘s she gets all the technical stuff she needs, such as ice time, costumes etc. But I don‘t have a lot of confidence in those two guys seeing how things progressed this season. I was willing to give the Angel’s Academy the benefit of the doubt and with Sasha it seems to have paid off. She has improved heaps and bounds. Aliona, however? Well, let’s just say I don‘t get their strategy at all. And to make it clear, I am NOT talking about her getting COVID, injured and struggling now. That was out of their control. But you don‘t give a struggling skater two new programs when she‘s already fighting to land her jumps. You just don‘t.

Agree, yesterday people were posting about how it came off like Kostornaia was an after-thought for Plushenko. Today amplified that - the Kiss/Cry interaction was just odd, Plushenko came off as annoyed that he had to sit there and at times it looked like he was trying to physically distance himself from her on that couch. This has been a season filled with bad circumstances for Kostornaia, perhaps that's the source of her struggles and a non-crazy offseason might right the ship; going into the Olympic season I don't think that changing coaches is a better strategy than staying where she's at and going through growing pains with Rozanov.

I‘m devastated for Aliona but she tried. The spins, lutz and 2A all didn‘t look bad, I think the bad fall in the warm up just rattled her.

If that was the source, that's more concerning - bad warmups happen, you can't let that affect your competition skate; what if this had been an important international competition.

 

[Shayuki]

That's why I said overall. Because that doesn't take into account Kamila's SP BV lead.

Hm okay, I was talking about just the FS .-.

 

[chasingneverland]

Worlds is hers to lose even with a two quad program, unless Trusova and Kihira really show something spectacular. Didn‘t know about the 4T, though, I thought she had to give it up after her injury?

She's practicing it again. I think she knows she has to.

Eh it wouldn't even take something spectacular. Anna only has a slight edge on Sasha's 2 quad program and that's if Sasha doesn't add her 3A to the SP and another quad to the FS. And Rika has a 3A so will have a SP advantage and has a 4S and a 3A in the FS (she could have two 3A's too). And Rika gets higher PCS.

 

[lappo]

Well, congratulations to Liza on her Worlds ticket!

I‘m devastated for Aliona but she tried. The spins, lutz and 2A all didn‘t look bad, I think the bad fall in the warm up just rattled her.

The program‘s nice in theory but still quite empty. If she does it with her normal skills restored, it could be incredible. But now? She just doesn‘t have the stamina yet to pull off the step sequence to the fast music, even without taking the combo mistake into consideration.

Debuting this here was a huge mistake, imo. Too much at stake, too much pressure. These are the programs she should have gotten at the beginning of the season.

Also, I‘m sorry but her training situation concerns me. Plushenko looks like he doesn‘t care at all about her (or like he has zero plan) and Rozanov‘s just inexperienced. Obviously she was unhappy at Eteri‘s, so she had to leave. The thing is, though, that there is a stunning lack of other high level coaches available for a country so totally dominating the sport. CSKA seem to have dropped entirely (with the exception of Davydov, I guess, but he already has a dozen other skaters), so who else is there really in Moscow? At least at Plushenko‘s she gets all the technical stuff she needs, such as ice time, costumes etc. But I don‘t have a lot of confidence in those two guys seeing how things progressed this season. I was willing to give the Angel’s Academy the benefit of the doubt and with Sasha it seems to have paid off. She has improved heaps and bounds. Aliona, however? Well, let’s just say I don‘t get their strategy at all. And to make it clear, I am NOT talking about her getting COVID, injured and struggling now. That was out of their control. But you don‘t give a struggling skater two new programs when she‘s already fighting to land her jumps. You just don‘t.

As for the rest... Well, I‘m frankly too sad to write much lol. Valieva was Valieva, if she skates like this she‘ll win the OGM. If not, it‘s Shcherbakova‘s. Usacheva - good, solid, beautiful. Says she‘s working on 4S and it‘s going better than the 3A. Good for her but as a devastated Aliona fan it‘s not making me happy at all. Tuktamysheva has really turned it around this season. Let’s hope she holds it together at Worlds. Not a fan of her skating but she deserves to go. I guess it‘s karma - after Medvedeva beat her in the Cup Final for the last Worlds spot, it couldn‘t happen a second time for another of my favorites.

I completely agree, the pacing of her by her team is just weird. Her previous programs, while not masterpieces by any means, were serviceable vehicles, especially in an uncertain and shortened season. Why change them now, before the Russian Cup where she should be focusing on jumps and stamina issues?
Also, while I think that the move to Plushenko will be probably beneficial for Sasha in the long run, I really hope that it will be the same for Aliona... I was unconvinced about her coach change in the past, I'm still unconvinced now, but I really hope for her sake that she will reach her desidered outcome with her new team...she is far too talented not to be able to go to Worlds at least once in her career.

 

[chasingneverland]

Hm okay, I was talking about just the FS .-.

Yeah but medals aren't awarded based on just FS - otherwise Anna would be the reigning GPF and Euros champion. The 3A advantage from the SP is mostly why she's not (as well as some PCS difference but that was almost gone)..so not to be ignored.

 

[Fluture]

If that was the source, that's more concerning - bad warmups happen, you can't let that affect your competition skate; what if this had been an important international competition.

I don‘t think she should change coaches either, way too late for that. She needs to stick it out and hope Rozanov knows what he‘s doing. I feel sorry for her because she essentially didn‘t have much of a choice. I know Plushenko personally resonates more with Sasha‘s character (he‘s said so himself) but he should realise that he has one of FS greatest talents in Aliona right now. Even if she‘s going through tough times now, that‘s no reason to act like this. It’s his responsibility as her coach to help her cope with this. It‘s his job. Can he do it? I‘ll wait and see.

Don‘t think that‘s a fair assessment from you, though. Aliona‘s had TERRIBLE practices, she literally left in tears at GP France last season. And in competition she was perfectly clean. But the difference is - then she could rely on her training and stamina, she knew these programs in and out and muscle memory helped her through. Now she doesn‘t have that luxury, it‘s literally an entirely new program, in a highly stressful environment, with her lacking in training time and runthroughs after coming back from a serious illness. And then add a dangerous fall in the warm-up on top of that? I can see that affecting anyone. She‘s been an insanely solid competitor before, she‘s allowed to have human moments. She just needs responsible adults to help her through this psychological low.

 

[Amei]

Anna is training a 4T and a 3A. But I think she needs to get her 3 quad program back first but I wouldn't be surprised to see that at World's.

Long term I think getting a triple axel competition-ready would be more beneficial than getting her stamina back for a 3 quad program. I doubt there would be an issue for her to add a triple toe and make 1 of her quad passes a combination, her 4lz+3T was getting her 18-19 points last season internationally. The issue last season was that she was in a deficit due to Kostornaia having the triple axel in the SP, assuming that Valieva lands the triple axel in her SP and Shcherbakova doesn't have 1 then she's going into that FS needing to make up 6-8 points.

 

[chasingneverland]

Long term I think getting a triple axel competition-ready would be more beneficial than getting her stamina back for a 3 quad program. I doubt there would be an issue for her to add a triple toe and make 1 of her quad passes a combination, her 4lz+3T was getting her 18-19 points last season internationally. The issue last season was that she was in a deficit due to Kostornaia having the triple axel in the SP, assuming that Valieva lands the triple axel in her SP and Shcherbakova doesn't have 1 then she's going into that FS needing to make up 6-8 points.

She was already planning to return to her three quad program before getting pneumonia. I think that's still the plan for World's - it's too close otherwise and she would need others to mess up or not skate their top programs. She also has a 4F-3T. I think she'll go with whichever one is more stable.

That's why she needs to get her three quad program back and preferably a 3A for the SP (she doesn't need to for the long).

 

[Smith16]

I really wish they hadn't have kept that part in about Aliona when they were interviewing Plushy and his son. It was unnecessary and a little rude.

 

[chasingneverland]

I don‘t think she should change coaches either, way too late for that. She needs to stick it out and hope Rozanov knows what he‘s doing. I feel sorry for her because she essentially didn‘t have much of a choice. I know Plushenko personally resonates more with Sasha‘s character (he‘s said so himself) but he should realise that he has one of FS greatest talents in Aliona right now. Even if she‘s going through tough times now, that‘s no reason to act like this. It’s his responsibility as her coach to help her cope with this. It‘s his job. Can he do it? I‘ll wait and see.

Don‘t think that‘s a fair assessment from you, though. Aliona‘s had TERRIBLE practices, she literally left in tears at GP France last season. And in competition she was perfectly clean. But the difference is - then she could rely on her training and stamina, she knew these programs in and out and muscle memory helped her through. Now she doesn‘t have that luxury, it‘s literally an entirely new program, in a highly stressful environment, with her lacking in training time and runthroughs after coming back from a serious illness. And then add a dangerous fall in the warm-up on top of that? I can see that affecting anyone. She‘s been an insanely solid competitor before, she‘s allowed to have human moments. She just needs responsible adults to help her through this psychological low.

Yeah. Aliona (and Anna) for that matter have both had disastrous practices in the past. They actually tend to but they also tend to perform when it matters which is kinda the opposite of Sasha who tends to have amazing practices and then let one jump derail the rest of the competition.
The thing is I don't think she had muscle memory from her old programs either. She was messing up step sequences and things on them too, learned them over Zoom, and admitted to making some of them up in her last competition because she forgot. really the biggest issues are lack of training time and stamina. (Although that's not just her..I still think Anna is struggling with that too, and Sasha and Liza aren't quite back yet either.)

 

[Shayuki]

Yeah but medals aren't awarded based on just FS - otherwise Anna would be the reigning GPF and Euros champion. The 3A advantage from the SP is mostly why she's not (as well as some PCS difference but that was almost gone)..so not to be ignored.

Actually I'd say the reason's Kostornaya's ridiculously inflated PCS last season, Shcherbakova could compete with Kostornaya's technical content.

With Valieva though I think she mostly deserves the PCS she'll be getting so it's a little different on that front for me.

 

[Amei]

I really wish they hadn't have kept that part in about Aliona when they were interviewing Plushy and his son. It was unnecessary and a little rude.

What did he say?

 

[Smith16]

What did he say?

It was an interview he and his son were doing with Olympic tv and the interviewer asks his son what athlete(s) inspire him? His son says his dad of course and then Plushenko mentions Sasha and Alena and his son says "Alena not so much at the moment but Sasha yes". Then they proceed to say a picture of Sasha with Plushenko and his family all while Pluskeno then responds " Alena has a cool vibe is a good skater".

 

[esteticlove]

This might sound harsh but I think that Kostornaia is suffering more from the series of strategically wrong decisions and not from her currently reduced physical abilities due to her illness. I generally support the athletes when they decide to change their coaching teams, but in this situation I really do believe that Aliona would have had better chances for going to Worlds if she had staid with Eteri. Even without a 3A, they would have worked at least on getting her triples back (which is the problem right now, she is barely rotating them) and could have gone the path of Daria, who established herself as a very consistent skater, hence her status is getting more stable. This whole situation was really weird from the beginnin - I don't know why she freaked out when Rozanov left. And Pluschenko's obvious lack of interest in her as a student is beyond offensive..

 

[nussnacker]

I swear I'm not channeling the moose, maybe he went with a blank poker face because people didn't like his unsportsmanlike thumbs down... but now he's labeled as "uninterested". So what is he supposed to do besides getting acting lessons?

I don't really know how to determine step sequence levels, but I think she fell behind the music, and missed some combination of turns or clusters or some actual technical terminology. I doubt they deliberately choreographed a level 2 anything.

Hey, moose, we recognized you

on a serious note, you do realize there’s a range in between those 2 extremes, it doesn’t have to be solely one or the other.
He seemed somewhat cold and distant, and Rozanov was at least trying to console and support her. She needs those words of support right now more than anyone.