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- Dec 31, 2019
This is one of those things that obviously he's going to say.
Can Liza T do it? Maybe. But he's obviously going to say she will.
2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating
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Can Liza T do it? Maybe. But he's obviously going to say she will.
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- Nov 12, 2011
it will probably be a lot harder for her next season. of course we shouldn't count her out, look what happened this year. but, she's going to have a lot more competition. if Aliona was in shape, she wouldn't have gone to worlds. next season she will have Kamila, Maiia, Dasha moving up and a likely very competitive Aliona in addition to Anna and Sasha.
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- Feb 10, 2018
From what our skaters and commentators say I think you quite underestimate step sequence. Again, if doing all jumps in the second half is so easy, why so few managed to do it, even though most skaters put as many jumps into the second half as they could. When a skater didn't put all the jumps into the second half it wasn't because "it was easy but they didn't want to unbalance the program". It was because he/she was unable to do so.
As I say, the good thing was that you could have seen 3-4, 2-5 and at the end 0-7 jump layout. It was diverse and the motivation caused that diversity. Now? The only thing you see everywhere is 4-3 with nearly no exception (apart from some weak skaters) because the rules now motivate just to do the very same layout as all the others do.
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I mean we have this year and also many argue it was politics that resulted in her not making the team in 2019.
anything can happen. Ice is slippery
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- Dec 31, 2019
The difference between 2019 and now is that in 2019 Russia had Alina...and a not quite in form Evgenia, a surprise Sofia S, and a recovering Liza T. The pre-emptive team before that year started WAS Alina, Evgenia, and Liza T. That year was a waiting year for the 3A to turn senior and a prayer that Alina would hang on until they did. Liza T would not have gone if the 3A were age eligible. Evgenia probably wouldn't have either.
That's not the case this year. Obviously a lot happened for 2019, A LOT happened this year - and even still, it was a waiting year for Kamila (and Daria to some extent). And even still a recovering, not in peak form Anna and an injured inconsistent Sasha STILL went. And Anna would have gone even if Kamila, Daria, and Maiia were age eligible. Sasha too. Liza T would NOT have gone if Kamila was age eligible. Daria and Sasha would have competed for the last spot with it probably going to Sasha but she would have NEEDED to be consistent to prove it made sense to send her.
A lot happened. But there was only one surprise and that was that Aliona didn't go. And that - they WANTED Aliona on that World's team and gave her every chance to be there. And it WAS between Liza T and Aliona - if Aliona had won or even come closer to Liza T at the Cup Final, Aliona would have gone to World's.
So even in a COVID season where EVERYTHING happened, it wasn't exactly unpredictable.
BUT for the first time since 2020 every contender will be age eligible.
There's Anna, Sasha, Kamila, Aliona (I think the RusFed sees some mix of 3 of those 4 - probably Anna, Sasha and Kamila but they would LOVE Aliona to get back to form. There are questions for all of them but less so than in the later divisions. As long as they're in peak form, they're fine. There are questions of health around Anna and Aliona, especially, but they don't need to completely max out their tech to beat others. They have incredible domestic and international resumes and judges actually love all 4, especially Anna and Aliona but also Kamila too. Sasha basically just needs consistency.)
Then there's Daria, Maiia, Liza T. (These can be considered contenders but also reserves/motivators for the main team. The RusFed will take them to pretty much all international starts - they'll get GPs (Daria and Liza T definitely will it's a bit more of a question mark for Maiia but she'll definitely get one probably two depending), but they'll have to improve something, and hope for a decline in the main team, to get the Olympic spot. These more than anyone need to try to outskate the previous 4 anytime they see them, and it can't be close. They all NEED to upgrade/stabilize their tech content. Daria and Maiia don't quite have the international resume and will be first year seniors. Daria needs a tech upgrade. Maiia and Liza T need to stabilize their tech content. Daria can be a PCS favourite though.)
Then Evgenia. (A favourite of the RusFed with the best resume. They'll give her international starts if she wants them. They won't expect her to make the Olympics/World's team (or even to compete on the GP) but if she can even get close to 2017 form they'll send her to everything they can.)
Then Kseniia S, Liza N, Sofia S, Anastasiia G, Anna F, etc (These will all be in a fight just to get an international start - even at a Senior B, but they have outside chances at a GP event and let's see how that goes type thing. They'll be hoping to have a shot at the national team and maybe impressing where they can. They won't get many opportunities although Mishin's name will help Sofia S and Anastasia G and he'll get them all the senior B's they can do. Liza N needs another RusNats like she had here. Kseniia S actually kinda has the tech content but it's not even close to consistent and she won't get many tries to get it there. She needs to be clean. )
So yeah, ice is slippery. But some have way more leeway. And there have never been more realistic top contenders fighting for what is really one or two spots.
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- Mar 3, 2015
Apropos to the ice dance topic...Apropos in this context, a great segment from Adam Rippon and Meryl Davis.
Meryl on twizzles: "We [Meryl and Charlie] practiced them so much that we could actually tell based on the sound of the other person's blade on the ice if we were in sync or not."
And then watch two retired greats make coordinated twizzles look easy. No wait, whoops, I mean the opposite of easy.
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Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.youtu.be
this is the Great Charlie White Polina Edmunds Twizzle Twerk Off...
Guess who won?
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- Feb 20, 2018
Sounds like Daria has the 3A figured out and is trying to perfect it and move onto the 4S.
“It seems to me that I can basically convey any image. Although it probably sounds a little self-confident.” I like this part. She’s right
“It seems to me that I can basically convey any image. Although it probably sounds a little self-confident.” I like this part. She’s right
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- Jan 20, 2019
I agree that the back loading rule has made layouts more similar to each other and more limiting in terms of creativity.
And it's also unfair. If a few skaters could back load all the jumps then that's an impressive athletic feat that should be rewarded.
It's not like everyone was suddenly going to start back loading everything after the Olympics, especially with the quads and 3A starting to become a thing in ladies skating.
If judges thought the programs were unbalanced, they could have just lowered the Composition components.
But it's also not true that back loaded programs were unbalanced or boring. If that was true then they should also ban too many quads because they cause emptier programs where the skater is just setting up quad after quad with minimal transitions or performance in between.
(I don't think they should, it's just an example of why the backloading = unbalanced argument doesn't make sense to me.)
And it's also unfair. If a few skaters could back load all the jumps then that's an impressive athletic feat that should be rewarded.
It's not like everyone was suddenly going to start back loading everything after the Olympics, especially with the quads and 3A starting to become a thing in ladies skating.
If judges thought the programs were unbalanced, they could have just lowered the Composition components.
But it's also not true that back loaded programs were unbalanced or boring. If that was true then they should also ban too many quads because they cause emptier programs where the skater is just setting up quad after quad with minimal transitions or performance in between.
(I don't think they should, it's just an example of why the backloading = unbalanced argument doesn't make sense to me.)
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- Jun 14, 2014
Sasha: yeah with a 3A and 5 quads landed of course she could outscore Darya with 3A and 4S (idk how many of the two she would put). But she has never landed a 3A nor 5 quads cleanly as a senior in one competition leave alone both at once. And all other aspects of her skating are severely inferior to Darya.
Anna: I'm not so sure if two 4F and one 4Lz by her would outscore a let's say two 3A and two/one 4S Darya. Considering Darya's spins and SS are arguably better. Of course she would be held up in PCS against a fresh junior in the beginning but even there we've seen how fast the Russian Fed changes favorites very quickly according to how the wind blows. And things get decided at Russian Nationals.
Alena: No. Even with three 3A in 2020 shape she can't compete with a hypothetical Darya that has that same 3A PLUS a quad.
But this of course is all just speculation based on the hypothesis that Darya does actually acquire any ultra-c at all.
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- Apr 26, 2018
No, it wasn‘t, actually. Alina and Evgenia were pretty much considered locks after their Olympic success but the third spot was up for grabs and Liza was one of the last people (and likely the fed) expected to take it. She finished 7th at the Nationals before, no one thought she‘d make a 2014-15-esque style comeback. From what I remember, Tsurskaya and Sotskova were still in consideration, as well as Radionova and maybe Gubanova. Tuktamysheva had been written off after her many years of struggle, which is why it was such a surprise when she suddenly gained form and even beat Medvedeva at Skate Canada.
As for Tuktamysheva‘s chances for next year...well, they‘re slim. The federation won‘t send her if they can help it. They didn‘t send her in 2019 when they really only had a total wildcard in Evgenia (though with good reputation to save her PCS even when she failed...) to replace her and only sent her this year because there was literally nobody else. Next year there‘s Anna, Aliona, Kamila, Daria, Maiia, Sasha... how many of them would have to decline severely for Tuktamysheva to be considered? Yeah. Especially since she doesn’t even have a track record of performing consistently under high pressure - even at Worlds this year she fell. I’m sure she’ll still try, though, and stranger things have happened. It‘s just not very likely.
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- Dec 31, 2019
I meant by the time the GPs/GPF rolled around.
But yeah, basically your second paragraph is what I mean. She's probably around the same standing as Maiia..the rest though..
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- Apr 17, 2018
Well, I certainly agree that if Sasha can get 5 quads and 3A she's basically unstoppable by anyone. Honestly, if she just went for three quads + 3A she is probably unstoppable (I would say only Kami could really battle with her then).
I don't know about Anna with 3 quads though... of course Anna will get higher PCS, even though I think Daria is honestly just as musical and emotional and has better skating skills. But if Daria gets her quads/3As and gets them consistent, I don't see why Russia wouldn't push for her as well. She is consistent with triples and usually does them (minus the flutz) with great quality and flow, compared that to the kind of labored combos of Anna.
Alena with 3 3As is also a difficult thing to guess. She will get higher PCS too, but... well first we'd have to see Daria's ultra-cs. If they look great (which I assume they would since her 2A and 3S are all very nice), then I think she would be ahead of Aliona because she could theoretically do 3 ultra-c (if not four) elements in the FS, while Aliona can only do 2.
With quads+3As I honestly think Daria would be a force to be reckoned with next season, which is why I'm really hoping she'll get them and get them consistent next season!! She's one of my favorite ladies for sure, and she has such a strong connection to her music and also has the best Ina Bauer in the business (in ladies) right now.
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- Feb 10, 2018
I wouldn't exclude Maiia too. I'm not saying she will land two or more quads consistently in every free program from now on, but she's shown she can do it. And if she lands them and gets good programs for the next season (maybe she could keep her short, it obviously fits her), she can get a hard time to the rest at least. So, I still count with Anna, Kamila, Sasha, Daria, Liza and Maiia as the main contenders for the olympic team (I'll add Aliona when I see her 3A really back).
It's six, possibly seven strong ladies (if anyone else won't suddely appear too, like Ksenia with two stable quads) competing for the three spots. Exciting, but half of them will be unlucky at the end.
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- Dec 31, 2019
Daria would probably do a 3A in the SP, and a 4S, 3A in the FS. (That would probably be the most they can hope for and she'll need to be consistent and clean. That will be hard initially as she'll need them roughly consistent from the get go. Most of the others with "ultra-c" elements have had them for at least 2 years. They won't push for two 3A's in the FS, considering both jumps are soo new and she would have to do one in combo AND a new 4S.)
Looking at just the FS (because ultimately that's where all the movement comes):
Daria: She has a BV of 74.95. She'll probably do something like 4S, 3A, 3Lz+2T, 3Lo // 3Lz+1Eu+3S x, 3F+3T x, 3F x.
Now we already know Sasha won't attempt anything less than 4 quads. And she HAS landed 4 in competition. That alone is enough to beat Daria.
Sasha (4 quad BV): There are a million and one things Sasha could attempt but for fun, she'll have a BV of around 89.40. Something like this: 4S (or 4F), 4Lz, 4T+3T, 2A // 4T+1Eu+3S x, 3Lz+3Lo x, 3Lz x. Fun fact, she actually has landed this in competition.
Daria's spins and steps are better than Sasha. Sasha had F edge issues; however, Daria has Lz edge issues and hers are often worse. They'll actually be fairly close PCS wise.
And Sasha will also probably go for more, so she'll be able to afford more mistakes.
Anna:
Now this is the fun part:
Anna (1 quad BV): 73.68. That would be this: 4F (or 4Lz), 3F+3T, 2A, 2A // 3Lz x, 3F+1Eu+3S x, 3Lz+3Lo x. (That's her World's FS layout.)
Already you can see that Anna makes up a lot of the difference even with "only" one quad and 2 2As.
Anna (2 quad BV): 81.88 That would be: 4Lz, 4F, 3F+3T, 2A // 3Lz+3Lo x, 3F+1Eu+3S x, 3Lz x. (This is her RusNats layout and she's been perfect on it.)
Here you can see that by this point Anna's already going to outscore Daria in the FS.
Now let's look at PCS, etc. Both of them have good spins (Anna's at World's were wonky but she fundamentally has them and if we're giving Daria 3 jumps she's never even attempted in competition one of which she's never landed in practice, we'll give Anna her spins.) Both of them are going to get their levels on steps. So there will be essentially no difference there. Both do have edge issues but Anna's won't be called, domestically or internationally and hers is a !. Daria's is closer to an e, so if panels are calling edges, it'll hurt Daria more. Second of all, Anna is the reigning World champion and 3x Russian Champion, and both international judges and domestic judges love her.. The Fed even when she was struggling didn't abandon her. Internationally as well she got incredible scores. Judges love Daria, yes, but she's a first year senior. No one has a stronger resume than Anna right now.
Anna (3 quad BV): 87.58 (That would be a 4Lz, 4F+3T, 4F, 2A // 3Lz+3Lo x, 3F+1Eu+3S x, 3Lz x)
If clean, and honesty that's more likely for Anna than Daria, Anna will win the FS and as you'll see completely eliminate any SP advantage Daria will have.
Aliona: At 2019-2020 form, she'll have a BV of 70.15. That would be 3A+2T, 3A, 2A, 3Lo // 3F+3T x, 3F+1Eu+3S x, 3Lz x.
Aliona's BV is already not that much lower and she more than any of the above skaters will get points on GOE, spins, step sequences, etc. Remember Aliona will a BV of significantly lower than Anna and Sasha outscored them when clean. And Daria will come in with a reputation that'll be around first year Anna and Sasha. Daria won't have ANY spins or steps advantage against Aliona. And as for PCS, Aliona will have higher PCS than everyone else (although Anna and Kamila very well might be as high.)
But the 3A in the SP, I can hear you saying.
Okay but let's look at that:
Daria's SP BV and layout with a 3A: 37.65 3A, 3Lz // 3F+3T x
Sasha's SP BV and layout with a 3A (she hasn't landed this cleanly in competition but she HAS in practice): 37.71 3A, 3F // 3Lz+3T x (She could also do a 3Lz+3Lo here maybe)
Anna's SP BV and layout: 33.78 2A, 3F // 3Lz+3Lo x
(There's only a 4 point difference here and Anna's 2 quad BV FS already makes that up. We also know she's scored 80.00 points internationally without a 3A. And she has beaten 3A programs both domestically and internationally)
Aliona's SP BV and layout (2019 - 2020 form): 3A, 3Lz // 3F+3T x
(Same as Daria except we already know Aliona can score 85+ points internationally on this. Daria will probably be around 79-82/83, internationally.)
All that to say, yes, Sasha, Anna, and Aliona can outscore that. And Anna and Aliona can even have a tech disadvantage and still do it.
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- Dec 31, 2019
Anna with 3 quads can beat Sasha with three quads + 3A in the SP. Anna's PCS will be higher and she's capable or 80+ in the SP internationally.
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- Oct 22, 2019
Just realised Kamila can spin in both directions! Like I need to be impressed anymore than I already am 
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- Jan 19, 2021
How do you know this? Did she do it in the show?Just realised Kamila can spin in both directions! Like I need to be impressed anymore than I already am
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- Jan 5, 2008
Ah, Sir Humphrey! I loved "Yes Minister" and I notice that the PBS station in Tacoma, WA, appears to have just started rerunning the series. I was always extremely impressed by how Sir Humphrey could obfuscate on any subject. (I liked the actor in other roles as well.)IMO step sequence is pretty tiring for legs, spins too. It is not "light choreography" nor killing time by default. If it was, it should be reflected in PCS, but it wasn't so it isn't, to paraphrase sir Humphrey Appleby. And if that would be so easy as some claim now, than we definitely would see much more of fully backloaded programs. Well, three years before it was about "jumps are not evrything", but now it seems like "jumps are the only thing"
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