2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[chasingneverland]

Yes, it‘s surprising how quickly people make assumptions when there‘s a lot of factors to take into consideration and figure skating‘s historically a pretty unpredictable sport. Still, I think it’s smart not to underestimate the ”underdogs“ like Usacheva and Khromykh. They‘ll have the advantage of being under less pressure and scrutiny than the top favorites (Shcherbakova, Valieva, perhaps Trusova) + Kostornaya, who the fed will be watching very closely after the fiasco that was this season and the messy coaching changes. It‘s always easier to be the chaser than the defender and Valieva will additionally only be 15, has never been to international senior events before and yet is already crowned the Olympic Champ with all the promoting that‘s going on around her by the media. Trusova also has a lot on her plate, having to prove reliability with her ultra-c elements after more or less bombing the SP at Worlds.

As for Kostornaia specifically, it will depend on the 3A and her consistency. Her rotational speed‘s quite low, so a quad is probably not in the cards for her. But I do think that if she manages to go back to her 2019-20 form, she‘ll be preferred by both fed and international judges to someone like Usacheva/Khromykh, maybe even Trusova unless she finally manages to find her consistency. After all, she is going into the Olympic season as the reigning Euros and GPF Champion and it‘s always good to have a stable competitor on the team, even if they don‘t have the highest theoretical BV. But it will definitely be an uphill battle - unlike Usacheva/Khromykh, she‘s already “old“ (I resent that expression but it is what it is) and according to Plushenko, chronically injured. There‘s a very real possibility that even if she gets the 3A back, it won‘t be as reliable for her as it used to. And without it, her chances are close to zero.

So, I‘d say September at the earliest can give us any half-reliable indications on how the Olympic season will go.

I'm not underestimating Maiia and especially not Daria. However, I'm trying to be realistic. While, yes, Anna, Kamila, Sasha, and Aliona will be under more scrutiny, they will also be more likely to be "saved" in the event they have a slight bobble. ALL of them are going to get PCS help, which is essentially a cushion. Furthermore, they're going to get more favourable GP placements, increasing the likelihood that they make it to the GPF, increasing their reputation. For example, Anna is going to be paired with someone that they'll expect her to beat. Whereas Maiia is going to be paired with someone that they'll expect her to lose to. Also Anna is the reigning World champion while the other is a first year senior without any junior international title. (The judges will also expect this going in.) As well, the international judges already have shown that even with mistakes their willing to go high on PCS for Anna and Sasha and we already know they already love Aliona and Kamila. (They also do like Daria.)

Aliona I think the Fed WANTS her to make it. They'll give her every chance to succeed.

 

[chasingneverland]

I wish people actually read comments instead of being trigger happy. Specifically said this season.

But that's why I said what I did. They were already being primed to be PCS darlings and winners. Which is important because the figure skating world was paying attention to domestic competitions. That was obvious. (Look at Sasha's 3F ! calls. Look at Anna's rising PCS.)

 

[icybear]

I dont think Maia is as generic as people make her sound like. She just doesnt fit the TT cookie cutter as much as the others because she's a lot taller than them. She just needs an assigned genre like all the other tt girls have. I think Maia could really go for a tango because she has lovely expressive arms. Something with a lot of musical accent and a climax ending, a bit more defining makeup, and an original dress. Or she go for a Bond program. Something along the lines of her SP this year.

 

[Lzbee]

Remember Anna's reputation gain transferred right over to international scores at Worlds.

But Maiia has the most potential to improve her scores because she's never skated a clean competition internationally. Judges have every excuse to skyrocket her pcs as long as she delivers.

 

[chasingneverland]

Remember Anna's reputation gain transferred right over to international scores at Worlds.

But Maiia has the most potential to improve her scores because she's never skated a clean competition internationally. Judges have every excuse to skyrocket her pcs as long as she delivers.

Yeah, that's what I meant about it wasn't just a domestic increase.

I actually think Kamila's have the highest potential increase. She's landed her 4T internationally but she's never landed two cleanly before - she was actually getting high PCS with stepouts and falls on one of her 4Ts. She's much more consistent on them now and can do a 4T+3T now (rather than a 4T+2T - although her layout needs some work). She also now has a 3A in the SP and the FS. She's also the RusNats senior silver medalist.

 

[chasingneverland]

I'm interested to know if they take the same strategy with Kamila, Daria, and Maiia (and potentially others) as they did with Anna, Sasha, and Aliona and have them skate a senior B before their GP debut.

I also wonder if they'll have Anna, Aliona, (and Sasha) do a senior B. I don't think they will for Anna and Sasha - they went to World's - and they don't need the standings. I think they might for Aliona though - her standings are fine but they might want her to win a less important competition so judges know what to expect and know she's back. Mishin will likely send all of Liza T, Sofia S, and Anastasia G though.

 

[Amei]

I'm interested to know if they take the same strategy with Kamila, Daria, and Maiia (and potentially others) as they did with Anna, Sasha, and Aliona and have them skate a senior B before their GP debut.

I feel like most of the Russian girls typically go to a challenger or some type of competition before their first GP. Granted it remains to be seen how the season will shape up

 

[silveruskate]

Tweaking little things like posture and carriage on ice would also help immensely but really I think she just needs programs that suit her more than the typical TT image that Anna, Alina, Daria, and Kamila have. That’s why a while ago I thought she might be better under a different coach.

I know it's not what your post is about but thinking about what typical TT style actually is is so interesting to me.

In my opinion soft emotional or lyrical programs are it. To my mind every Eteri skater has done at least one, especially Evgenia, Anna, Kamila and Aliona. Both of Maiia's 2019-20 programs were! Daria as well of course.

Alina is really the stand-out. I've seen lyrical as an exho which I liked a lot, but all her competitive programs are powerful music.

 

[silveruskate]

But that's why I said what I did. They were already being primed to be PCS darlings and winners. Which is important because the figure skating world was paying attention to domestic competitions. That was obvious. (Look at Sasha's 3F ! calls. Look at Anna's rising PCS.)

And what I said was that so far their progress this year is purely domestic which it is. There haven't been any international competitions.

My point was that without the pandemic Daria/Kamila would continue to solidify themselves and if Maiia performed like she did this year she would have fallen further behind. I don't think she's as good a performer as Daria/Kamila but she can go in with a clean slate internationally and has a chance to really bring it.

These domestic competitions are more important than normal, but they're still domestic competitions with domestic scoring and pushing.

 

[chasingneverland]

And what I said was that so far their progress this year is purely domestic which it is. There haven't been any international competitions.

My point was that without the pandemic Daria/Kamila would continue to solidify themselves and if Maiia performed like she did this year she would have fallen further behind. I don't think she's as good a performer as Daria/Kamila but she can go in with a clean slate internationally and has a chance to really bring it.

These domestic competitions are more important than normal, but they're still domestic competitions with domestic scoring and pushing.

Their competitions are domestic with domestic scoring.

The foundations are laid domestically. However, domestic scoring and pushing plays a huge role in international scoring and pushing. (Look at Anna's scoring, look at Sasha's scoring, look at how the Japanese girls were scored. Anna's only international competition was World's (so far) and she went from a 77.95 at Euros in the SP (35.17 in PCS) to a 81.00 at World's in the SP (37.14 in PCS). Fun fact: Her step sequence and spins were actually better at Euros. Domestic scoring and pushing plays a role in international scoring and pushing.

It makes a HUGE difference.

And the fact is, the international judges were already willing to give Kamila and Daria high PCS even before. And the thing is Daria/Kamila/Maiia have clean slates for next year but they have already been scored internationally. And international judges know domestic rankings and score them as such. So it's impossible for them to go in with completely blank slates.

 

[silveruskate]

Remember Anna's reputation gain transferred right over to international scores at Worlds.

But Maiia has the most potential to improve her scores because she's never skated a clean competition internationally. Judges have every excuse to skyrocket her pcs as long as she delivers.

Anna actually had the opportunity to perform her programs internationally and was clear #1 for Russia at Worlds. It's not the same when next season you're coming out with completely new programs as Daria/Kamila will at the GP circuit.

 

[flanker]

And what I said was that so far their progress this year is purely domestic which it is. There haven't been any international competitions.

My point was that without the pandemic Daria/Kamila would continue to solidify themselves and if Maiia performed like she did this year she would have fallen further behind. I don't think she's as good a performer as Daria/Kamila but she can go in with a clean slate internationally and has a chance to really bring it.

These domestic competitions are more important than normal, but they're still domestic competitions with domestic scoring and pushing.

Definitely if Maiia was at worlds and performed as she did at the Cup final, she would have beaten anyone there except Anna, reputation or not. And if her skates at possible GP stages will be clean, the reputation will be there before you say Devils of Tutberidze.

 

[silveruskate]

Their competitions are domestic with domestic scoring.

The foundations are laid domestically. However, domestic scoring and pushing plays a huge role in international scoring and pushing. (Look at Anna's scoring, look at Sasha's scoring, look at how the Japanese girls were scored. Anna's only international competition was World's (so far) and she went from a 77.95 at Euros in the SP (35.17 in PCS) to a 81.00 at World's in the SP (37.14 in PCS). Fun fact: Her step sequence and spins were actually better at Euros. Domestic scoring and pushing plays a role in international scoring and pushing.

It makes a HUGE difference.

And the fact is, the international judges were already willing to give Kamila and Daria high PCS even before. And the thing is Daria/Kamila/Maiia have clean slates for next year but they have already been scored internationally. And international judges know domestic rankings and score them as such. So it's impossible for them to go in with completely blank slates.

I said it's purely domestic at this stage and for this season. I never even commented on any reputation they gained for their first Jr season by the way, referring to your original reply to me.

The thing is they'll all be coming out with new programs for a new season. We don't know how they'll be received yet. And it really matters a lot. It's quite good for Maiia compared to what it could have been. Last time judged internationally is more than a year ago.

Also, being #1 Russian at Worlds is different to starting out at the GP series with new programs. At least Anna had the chance to solidify some reputation internationally. You can't push 6 skaters and RusFed doesn't need to turn on the taps straight away. We saw Alina go from 70 PCS to 75 between GPF and EC. Evgenia from 67 PCS to 72 between Rostelecom and GPF the year before.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I think it's quite normal to say that someone lacks the "It factor", subjectively of course.
And to me Maiia does not have it, same as Bradie and Kaori...simply just not my cup of tea.

Also, as for the validity of her 4T, I see here (0:27) that she prerotated it 180, but same time...who doesn't?

Her 4T is prerotated 5/8 of a turn and she lands barely past sideways, so it's a clear < jump:

 

[silveruskate]

Definitely if Maiia was at worlds and performed as she did at the Cup final, she would have beaten anyone there except Anna, reputation or not. And if her skates at possible GP stages will be clean, the reputation will be there before you say Devils of Tutberidze.

She's still a Jr and couldn't perform at Worlds. If she did what she did at RCF there this year we might be talking about her as World Champion.

But instead she would have been performing against Valieva and Daria the whole season. If she was falling on quads the whole season until Jr Worlds while Daria and Kamila were building PCS it wouldn't help her PCS reputation. No doubt she would defeat Daria by Jr Worlds with the tech she performed at RCF but we're talking about PCS reputation here.

 

[flanker]

She's still a Jr and couldn't perform at Worlds.

Like I don't know that
Let's just imagine the words "in a hypothetical scenario" introducing my previous post, I simply didn't consider it necessary to write something so obvious.

If she did what she did at RCF there this year we might be talking about her as World Champion.

But instead she would have been performing against Valieva and Daria the whole season. If she was falling on quads the whole season until Jr Worlds while Daria and Kamila were building PCS it wouldn't help her PCS reputation. No doubt she would defeat Daria by Jr Worlds with the tech she performed at RCF but we're talking about PCS reputation here.

And I'm talking that reputation isn't everything. It's vague and can be imposed and taken away in a minute. Top 10, maybe even more ladies at worlds have probably louder the thing called reputation than Maiia, and yet would have been defeated by her easily. Kamila and Daria were defeated by Maiia in the free program at the cup final and if she was more clean in the SP she could win the whole competition. In Russia, where Kamila's and Daria's reputation were supposed to build up this season.

I can agree that the reputation can eventually help to overlook some minor mistakes or add some point here and there (though sometimes it is more like a burden, if I remember Alina's scoring during the GP stages 2019 for instance), but will hardly help to fill the technical gap between let's say Daria's Maiia's program if clean, how we've seen already. Kamila would need evne more mistakes to be beaten by Maiia in total score than she did at RCF, but Daria needs at least one ultra-c element against clean Maiia, even if she's currently better performer and skater.

I simply think people put too much emphasis on insignificant things, exactly like reputation, their personal taste and so on, against pure simple mathematics.

 

[chasingneverland]

Like I don't know that
Let's just imagine the words "in a hypothetical scenario" introducing my previous post, I simply didn't consider it necessary to write something so obvious.



And I'm talking that reputation isn't everything. It's vague and can be imposed and taken away in a minute. Top 10, maybe even more ladies at worlds have probably louder the thing called reputation than Maiia, and yet would have been defeated by her easily. Kamila and Daria were defeated by Maiia in the free program at the cup final and if she was more clean in the SP she could win the whole competition. In Russia, where Kamila's and Daria's reputation were supposed to build up this season.

I can agree that the reputation can eventually help to overlook some minor mistakes or add some point here and there (though sometimes it is more like a burden, if I remember Alina's scoring during the GP stages 2019 for instance), but will hardly help to fill the technical gap between let's say Daria's Maiia's program if clean, how we've seen already. Kamila would need evne more mistakes to be beaten by Maiia in total score than she did at RCF, but Daria needs at least one ultra-c element against clean Maiia, even if she's currently better performer and skater.

I simply think people put too much emphasis on insignificant things, exactly like reputation, their personal taste and so on, against pure simple mathematics.

But if you're including hypothetical scenarios, that's not even one that would have had a chance to happen. Because if the girls were senior this year, it would be Kamila going. And if we're going with hypotheticals why are we going with Maiia's best skate all season compared with Anna's worst skate and one of Sasha's worst skates. And if we're doing that well then imagine if Sasha doesn't get injured, Anna and Aliona don't get Covid/pneumonia, etc.

And Kamila wouldn't have tried a skate like that at World's anyway. She tried that skate BECAUSE it was a meaningless skate. And I don't think Maiia's 4T would be called rotated - Anna's and Sasha's quads were getting rotation calls too and have been for years and they got more leniency as trailblazers and also much much more Fed support. Remember Kamila without "ultra-c" elements beat Alysa at the JGPF (although Alyssa was getting under-rotation calls but Maiia will get calls too especially because the Fed is calling her domestically). And Daria without any "ultra-c" elements beat Alysa at Junior World's. Aliona (even though she did have 3As) was at a huge TES disadvantage to Anna and Sasha and she beat them. (She was the equivalent of a quad or two behind them). Yes they made mistakes but Aliona did too actually. So no, it's not just math.

Fun fact: Maiia's 2quad program has a BV of 74.51. Anna's 1 quad program has a BV of 73.68.

 

[chasingneverland]

I said it's purely domestic at this stage and for this season. I never even commented on any reputation they gained for their first Jr season by the way, referring to your original reply to me.

The thing is they'll all be coming out with new programs for a new season. We don't know how they'll be received yet. And it really matters a lot. It's quite good for Maiia compared to what it could have been. Last time judged internationally is more than a year ago.

Also, being #1 Russian at Worlds is different to starting out at the GP series with new programs. At least Anna had the chance to solidify some reputation internationally. You can't push 6 skaters and RusFed doesn't need to turn on the taps straight away. We saw Alina go from 70 PCS to 75 between GPF and EC. Evgenia from 67 PCS to 72 between Rostelecom and GPF the year before.

That's the point though. They're all not starting at the same arbitrary base level for PCS.

 

[silveruskate]

Like I don't know that
Let's just imagine the words "in a hypothetical scenario" introducing my previous post, I simply didn't consider it necessary to write something so obvious.



And I'm talking that reputation isn't everything. It's vague and can be imposed and taken away in a minute. Top 10, maybe even more ladies at worlds have probably louder the thing called reputation than Maiia, and yet would have been defeated by her easily. Kamila and Daria were defeated by Maiia in the free program at the cup final and if she was more clean in the SP she could win the whole competition. In Russia, where Kamila's and Daria's reputation were supposed to build up this season.

I can agree that the reputation can eventually help to overlook some minor mistakes or add some point here and there (though sometimes it is more like a burden, if I remember Alina's scoring during the GP stages 2019 for instance), but will hardly help to fill the technical gap between let's say Daria's Maiia's program if clean, how we've seen already. Kamila would need evne more mistakes to be beaten by Maiia in total score than she did at RCF, but Daria needs at least one ultra-c element against clean Maiia, even if she's currently better performer and skater.

I simply think people put too much emphasis on insignificant things, exactly like reputation, their personal taste and so on, against pure simple mathematics.

Yes, I did that because I didn't really care for the hypothetical. Because I wasn't dragging Maiia!

I'm actually trending towards what you're saying and saying Maiia still has a chance. The PCS isn't solid yet.

 

[silveruskate]

That's the point though. They're all not starting at the same arbitrary base level for PCS.

Absolutely. I didn't say there wasn't a deficit. I'm just saying she's not been cast adrift like she could have if international judges had the chance to hose her this season. No international competitions helps her and bought her time.

Maiia has a lot of work to do.