2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

[ladyjane]

Thank you @frida80 for these wonderfully extensive and insightful posts. I enjoyed reading them.

 

[moonvine]

Part 4!

Audrey Shin finally had her moment at SA. USFS has had their eye on her for a while. They’ve sent her to international competitions since she was a novice. She’s one of those skaters that when she’s on is the full package. Graceful and connects with the music. her biggest problem before this year was her terrible underotations. It looked like she turned a corner at SA. However, nationals was completely disasterous. I’m very worry that she was injured. I’ll keep my fingers crossed, as she really shown improvement. I think USFS is still keeping her in mind as a possibility, as she was an alternate for worlds in spite of her placement at nationals. However, she has to be as good she was at SA for the fall season for her to be considered for an Olympic Spot. The good news for her is that she’s still

My Status: Possible Dark Horse, but need a very strong fall season for a spot.

Now lets talk about everyone else. I don’t think it matters if I analyze anyone deeply because they are all pretty much in the same boat. They have no recent successes internationally, therefore they are all wildcards unless they can prove otherwise. The good news for all of them is they still have time to prove themselves. Bradie has left the ultimate blue print on how to nail an Olympic spot, even though you have no achievements to rely on. I hope that as many ladies as possible take advantage of the summer competitions, especially the bigger ones (provided they hold them). They need to compete frequently. Show that they’ve got the tech and the consistency. If they have a quad or a 3A, land it in a club competition and create some buzz. Aim for the Nebelhorn and SA spot. Get as many international competitions as you can and fight hard. In the end of the day it will go down to who has the favor of the international judges. Are their jumps clean? How is their components score? Are they consistent? Do they have the tech neccessary to be competitive?

The Olympics brings out the ultimate competitor in many people. I expect many ladies to be fired up with new tech, jumps, and ready to fight. This is going to be an interesting year, considering there are so may ways the dice can roll. Therefore, I will be keep a very close eye on the following:

1. Summer Competition scores

These will determine the Nebelhorn and SA spot. USFS will look for a ladies with high scores that are consistent to justify giving them that spot.

2. Other competitions like Peggy Fleming and Aerial Competition.

A good way to get some visability and clout. Plus debuting a new Quad or 3A at AC would really put skaters higher on the list.

4. Philly International


I hope this is held this year, because it will give a lot of momentum to those on the podium. Both Bradie and Hanul Kim went to the Olympics. This will give a good idea of how things stand with certain skaters with international judges. However, a lot of this relies on flying in judges, which is still iffy at this juncture.

5. Nebelhorn Trophy

The lady selected sends a strong signal that that person is considered reliable enough to earn an Olympic Spot.

6. The SA spot

This will go to the person that does the best during the summer competitions.

7. Challenger Series placements.

It shows who USFS believes has earned an international competition slot this year. I’m keeping a look out for those that have scored two spots.

8. The Grand Prix spots

USFS will barter for spots for those lower on the totem poll that they think show potential. I’m curious who outside of the six I’ve listed will A. Get spots during at the first release
B. Get two spots
C. Get placed as alternates

(C. can be a false alarm, as some federations chose weaker ladies so they won’t be as competitive against their own.)

9. ISP Challenge

If they hold this again, it will be a good way to gauge how well skaters are doing, their preparation for the season, and how USFS is already ranking them. I hope they do it again, as it’s a great way for places that have few club competitions to get seen by USFS officials.


In conclusion, it’s going to be a roller coaster ride of a season. COVID restrictions will still impact people. There’s simply no way to predict how the dice will roll. Wish all our ladies luck. Their going to need it.

I’ve called IceWorks and they have stated they are having Philly International (also Collegiates). They are having their spring ice show with spectators later this month.

 

[katymay]

I wonder if the US will have a sort of "test skate" to decide who will go to Germany. I think the date is 10 September which is really very early. If Alysa is at the same level she was at for Nationals, I think they will send her based on consistency. But Mariah and Amber would also be in the mix. Whoever goes-assuming they do well-would get a leg up on being selected for the Olympic team. (body of work), as I don't think the US GP placements will be sky high. (But you never know)

 

[macy]

I wonder if the US will have a sort of "test skate" to decide who will go to Germany. I think the date is 10 September which is really very early. If Alysa is at the same level she was at for Nationals, I think they will send her based on consistency. But Mariah and Amber would also be in the mix. Whoever goes-assuming they do well-would get a leg up on being selected for the Olympic team. (body of work), as I don't think the US GP placements will be sky high. (But you never know)

i'd like to see Alysa go. since this is her first senior international season she could use all the exposure she can get.

 

[Steinbeck]

Honestly, I'm much more impressed by skaters who can do clean 3 triple SPs and 7 triple LPs because that is what wins big events. The 3A or a quad will get you nowhere unless you can land all the easier jumps. Maybe Amber can continue to show consistency with the other jumps and add the 3A next season, but the others need to show that they can execute a competitive layout consistently to justify any additional investment or push from the federation.

Amber and Mia were among the 5 skaters ---- TOTAL (!!) out of ALL juniors and seniors at nationals ---- that executed a clean triple triple in the freeskate.

 

[ice coverage]

... 2. Other competitions like Peggy Fleming and Aerial Competition. ...

BTW, Peggy Fleming Trophy entries will be announced tomorrow.

As of April 29, there were 19 active entries (men and ladies).

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Amber and Mia were among the 5 skaters ---- TOTAL (!!) out of ALL juniors and seniors at nationals ---- that executed a clean triple triple in the freeskate.

And of course I was curious who the five were :

- Bradie 3Lz+3T with 2.36 GOE plus second-half bonus (1st in Senior FS and 1st overall)
- Amber 3F+3T with 2.33 GOE (2nd in Senior FS and 2nd overall)
- Rena Ikenishi 3F+1Eu+3S with 1.06 GOE (8th in Senior FS and 9th overall)
- Maryn Pierce 3Lz+3T with 0.59 GOE (7th in Junior FS and 12th overall)
- Mia Kalin 3Lz+3T with 0.35 GOE (8th in Junior FS and 8th overall)

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ETA:

I think that it is worth mentioning that for Bradie/Karen/Amber/Mariah/Audrey, the results of the post-Nats virtual competition that USFS held for World team and alternates were not made public.

Which might or might not make some difference in terms of USFS decision-making early in the upcoming season?​

 

[Amei]

i'd like to see Alysa go. since this is her first senior international season she could use all the exposure she can get.

With an Olympic spot on the line? That's a lot of pressure on a skater's very first senior international competition, and last check the "Olympic spot on the line" was used as a reason to forego Amber Glenn in favor of Karen Chen for Worlds in Stockholm as Karen was the 'safe' choice with a better body of work.

I'm in favor of doing a 'skate-off' for the spot and send the skater in the best shape to Nebelhorn, not basing it off who needs exposure, redemption, experience, etc...

 

[Mathman]

With an Olympic spot on the line? That's a lot of pressure on a skater's very first senior international competition, and last check the "Olympic spot on the line" was used as a reason to forego Amber Glenn in favor of Karen Chen for Worlds in Stockholm as Karen was the 'safe' choice with a better body of work.

I think, though, that a different dynamic will be at work next year. The "safe choice" Karen was figured to be the best shot at having two skaters who could finish 6th and 7th to secure three spots. At the Olympics, the goal should be to get behind the skater that they think might have the best chance at an Olympic medal. The powers that be may feel that Alysa is the" least long" of the long shots.

 

[dancelion21]

Wonderful analysis about the Olympics spots. I feel like of the ladies in contention, I would rank them, in terms of likelihood of going:
1) Bradie - proved her consistency over the past few years, I would feel the most comfortable betting on her to land her jumps out of everyone else
2) Alysa - USFS has invested a lot in her, and even though she didn't have Ultra-C elements at US Nationals, she definitely looks to be on the upward trajectory and has adjusted well to her growth the last time we saw her. She also has shown remarkable nerves, not letting mistakes early in her program affect her later on. While many other US ladies are highly susceptible to popping jumps and collapsing under the pressure, when Alysa makes mistakes (which she did often in her junior season where she attempted 4Lz and 3A at the start of her program), she would always be able to cleanly execute 3-3s at the end of her program.
3) Karen - Karen is the international judge's favorite, she gets wonderful PCS and GOE on her jumps. She showed that she can put it together at Worlds and she basically single-handedly got the US three spots. She still has underrotation issues and can't do a clean 3-3, but she is capable of going clean, and she gets rewarded well when that happens.
4) Amber - Amber has a 3A, but Amber has also only skated one clean free skate in her entire career, and has a limited international reputation. If she can skate like she did at US nationals, she will be a lock because her jumps were huge and had no rotation issues. She has a bit of an uphill climb because she doesn't have the international reputation of her toughest competition. However, if she can skate like she did at US nationals consistently, she will get on the team.
5) Mariah - Poor Mariah, everything was going so well last year until COVID happened and then it wasn't. She has the hardest hill to climb because US nationals was such a disaster and brought back her old consistency issues that she finally seemed to overcome in the 2019-20 season. I can't see her getting a triple axel, so she needs to go back to what worked in 2019-20. If she gets back to that level, she can make the team.
6) Audrey - The true dark horse, she probably needs an ultra-C element and consistency to get on the team since she has no international reputation at all compared to the other girls.
7) Everyone else - Similar to Audrey, they need ultra-C elements and consistency, but even more of a long shot than Audrey.

 

[Skater Boy]

i'd like to see Alysa go. since this is her first senior international season she could use all the exposure she can get.

And that might be the very reason not to send her.

 

[Skater Boy]

It is going to be so exciting the battle for the olympics. I think the only sure bet is Bradie. She is not the most exciting but she gets the job done. If not rather perfunctory. Liu could be the threat to the Russians and Japanese ladies but she is going to have to bring it during the GP. Who knows how she is doing in respect to her growth issues. Karen is the most complete but you also have Mariah who has it all i she can pull it together kind of like Jill Trenary. Can be marvelous. Amber has some hope but she will need to do well internationally first and she isn't overly dynamic but who knows with the right programs? Star is no longer a shooting star even if she seeks her One Moment in Time. Gracie will need some amazing grace.

 

[macy]

And that might be the very reason not to send her.

why not? if she wants to go to the Olympics she needs to make a name for herself internationally as a senior. she has to prove she can hold it together under pressure and be reliable on a bigger stage than she's experienced.

IMO if not Alysa, then Amber. she's another that has proving to do if she wants to be on the team.

you want to go to the Olympics, then earn that 3rd spot and show you're not here to play.

 

[chuckm]

At the Olympics, the goal should be to get behind the skater that they think might have the best chance at an Olympic medal. The powers that be may feel that Alysa is the" least long" of the long shots.

Let's get real: the odds against any lady who isn't Russian getting an Olympic medal are astronomical.

 

[AlysaLiuStan]

I don't think it really matter who goes, to be honest. Remember that the skaters who are going to be at Nebelhorn (ie those who failed to make the worlds free skate) are simply not at the level of any top US woman.

Whichever American goes should easily be able to win the entire competition. That being said, they are obviously going to choose Alysa. It would be a good thing for her to win her first senior competition by like 40 points.

 

[Minz]

I wonder if the US will have a sort of "test skate" to decide who will go to Germany. I think the date is 10 September which is really very early. If Alysa is at the same level she was at for Nationals, I think they will send her based on consistency. But Mariah and Amber would also be in the mix. Whoever goes-assuming they do well-would get a leg up on being selected for the Olympic team. (body of work), as I don't think the US GP placements will be sky high. (But you never know)

They have Champs Camp which is in August.
They’ll probably make a good decision off of that.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Let's get real: the odds against any lady who isn't Russian getting an Olympic medal are astronomical.

Still, you'd want to have at least one skater there who has the technical arsenal to compete if the favorites make mistakes. I would assume that if any of the Russian skaters miss their quads, they'd still hold it together to get 7 triples landed in the LP. Since they get some points for failed quads and also earn high PCS marks, the only chance for an American would be to outscore the equivalent of a solid 7 triple program like Anna skated at Worlds plus make up for a SP deficit. I don't see how that could be done without a 3A or quad.

 

[ptvvibezz]

Ting Cui just posted an Instagram story with the caption "getting back in shape for this season" with a video of a 3-3(?). Could she be another dark horse for the team?

 

[Jeanie19]

Ting Cui just posted an Instagram story with the caption "getting back in shape for this season" with a video of a 3-3(?). Could she be another dark horse for the team?

She could be. Who is her new coach?

 

[ptvvibezz]

She could be. Who is her new coach?

Last thing I heard was from her interview with Polina where she said that Paul Wylie is currently helping her train up at Lake Placid.

 

[ice coverage]

2021 Peggy Fleming Trophy entries:

1. Starr Andrews 2. Maxine Marie Bautista 3. Jason Brown 4. Karen Chen 5. Julia Fennell 6. Courtney Hicks 7. Sonja Hilmer 8. Tomoki Hiwatashi 9. Pooja Kalyan 10. Isabeau LeVito

11. Alysa Liu 12. Jordan Moeller 13. Yaroslav Panoit [sic] 14. Camden Pulkinen 15. Emmanuel Savary 16. Audrey Shin 17. Bradie Tennell 18. Andrew Torgashev 19. Sierra Venetta

I believe Bradie, Alysa, and Isabeau all are first-timers for PFT.
(Also Yaro Paniot.)

Event Timeline (2021 again will be a virtual competition):

- Video Submission Deadline – Competitive Performances – June 28, 2021
- Event Judging – July 13, 2021
- Available on U.S. Figure Skating Fan Zone – July 16, 2021​

An additional type of PFT Prize Money this year (emphasis added):

While there is no entry fee, there is new prize money for this year’s event.

Continuing their ongoing commitment to the PFT, Greg and Peggy Jenkins donate the prize money to the Broadmoor Skating Club and the Club then distributes it to the winners.
The prize money for a podium finish is:
1st place: $3,000
2nd place: $2,000
3rd place: $1,000

Additionally, non-podium skaters receiving +4 and/or +5 GOEs by a majority of the judges on their “Signature Move” and/or “Creative Spin” will get a $100 award for each of these elements as a special acknowledgement.​

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BTW: Although PFT will be virtual again, 2021 Broadmoor Open is being planned as a live in-person competition.

[Off topic for this thread, but Broadmoor Open will include partnered ice dance competition this year .]