2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

[dancelion21]

Amber did very well at SA though.

I'm wishing Amber all the best in the free skate in a few hours. This will likely be her last competition before Nationals, and will determine the value of her BOW. As of now, her score for BOW is 192.24. If Amber can score above a 193.44 total, then that will be her new median and she can finally get herself into Group 3 based on the "consistently scored in the top 10" criteria. Based on her short program score, Amber needs a 130.01 to do it. That's 3 points lower than what she got at Skate America, where she went clean, so Amber essentially needs to go clean again, maybe she can afford one step out, but that's it.

 

[loopy1217]

Again time will tell on Karen. Eteri bet on her girls going to Olympics and now it is down to possibly of two.

Polina went because of the other two being solid - her is to promote junior skaters - the next quad….it did not works out

For now our number 2 is questionable. Putting Lindsey there is as risky than putting Karen when Lindsey hasn’t won the senior judges in international stage. Do you want three to give her 6-7 for each PCs score?

 

[skatingiscool]

I'm wishing Amber all the best in the free skate in a few hours. This will likely be her last competition before Nationals, and will determine the value of her BOW. As of now, her score for BOW is 192.24. If Amber can score above a 193.44 total, then that will be her new median and she can finally get herself into Group 3 based on the "consistently scored in the top 10" criteria. Based on her short program score, Amber needs a 130.01 to do it. That's 3 points lower than what she got at Skate America, where she went clean, so Amber essentially needs to go clean again, maybe she can afford one step out, but that's it.

At this point, I think USFSA is not going to consider BOW for Karen, Amber, and Mariah .....unless they score over 217.2 (very unlikely). Whoever (Bradie, Mariah, Karen, Amber, Lindsay) wins medal at Nationals......that skater gets ticket to Beijing.

Let's say Amber wins Bronze and Karen wins pewter, it's unlikely that USFSA will select Karen over Amber this time.

p.s.: Alysa only needs top 5 finish.

 

[Amei]

Again time will tell on Karen. Eteri bet on her girls going to Olympics and now it is down to possibly of two.

3 maybe 4 should Kostornaia get herself together.

Polina went because of the other two being solid - her is to promote junior skaters - the next quad….it did not works out

For now our number 2 is questionable. Putting Lindsey there is as risky than putting Karen when Lindsey hasn’t won the senior judges in international stage. Do you want three to give her 6-7 for each PCs score?

Well Lindsay has done well TES-wise internationally. Karen has an under-rotation problem that isn't always ignored and per my earlier post, she's doing the exact same layout she did 4 years ago. If they are doing 'evaluations' of who to send and not going off Nationals there should be weight given to the skater, Lindsay, who is actually doing a competitive TES layout and improving themselves YOY.

 

[dancelion21]

At this point, I think USFSA is not going to consider BOW for Karen, Amber, and Mariah .....unless they score over 217.2 (very unlikely). Whoever (Bradie, Mariah, Karen, Amber, Lindsay) wins medal at Nationals......that skater gets ticket to Beijing.

Let's say Amber wins Bronze and Karen wins pewter, it's unlikely that USFSA will select Karen over Amber this time.

p.s.: Alysa only needs top 5 finish.

I tend to agree with this except for the fact that it will just be more reassuring to already be in Group 3 going into US Nationals rather than knowing the skater is in Group 4 and needs to perform well and get top 3 at US Nationals to even make it into Group 3. Also, I'm not sure if I would put Mariah in the same category as Amber and Karen yet since she hasn't competed on the Grand Prix circuit yet and we haven't seen her in competition since Cranberry Cup three months ago, so we have very little clue of her current condition. If Mariah shows up like she did in the 2019-20 season, she can easily cement her ticket to Beijing prior to making it to US Nationals thanks to BOW

 

[daffygirl]

Here’s the thing with Alysa and nerves: She does get them but she has never melted down because of them. Even when she falls she just gets up and kept going. It’s possible she’s feeling more nerves than usual over the triple axel and trying to get it back in a more mature body. I don’t know if a sport psych would help or it’s just something she needs to keep working at. Her team seems very much behind her and I’m sure they will figure out the best way to proceed. It may be that it isn’t something she solidifies until next season. It can take time to learn new jump technique especially with a still-changing body. We don’t know her success rate with landing clean triple axels in daily practice.

 

[gold12345]

Let's say Amber wins Bronze and Karen wins pewter, it's unlikely that USFSA will select Karen over Amber this time.

I don't know about that, it definitely was the right decision last season (and I felt that way regardless of how well Karen ended up doing at Worlds). Amber is still mostly unproven internationally and is relying on an inconsistent 3A to stand out. Karen at least gets the PCS internationally, but her season has been very rough so far and URs tend to be more of an issue for her than Amber. I don't envy the Ladies selection committee, I would be losing sleep over picking the best possible team lol. Aside from Alysa they have all been so up and down.

Also, I'm not sure if I would put Mariah in the same category as Amber and Karen yet since she hasn't competed on the Grand Prix circuit yet and we haven't seen her in competition since Cranberry Cup three months ago, so we have very little clue of her current condition. If Mariah shows up like she did in the 2019-20 season, she can easily cement her ticket to Beijing prior to making it to US Nationals thanks to BOW

Mariah also skated a SP at a small Championship Series event. She did a 3-2, and the program suited her better than the one she did at Cranberry. She hasn't had an easy time so far trying to recreate her strong 2019-20 season. Her 3-3 was really solid at one point, but it's been more iffy since.

 

[halulupu]

Amber just isn't reliable at all. She is skating without confidance. She looks very scared. Now let's hope mariah has good and solid outings in gp to come and one olympic spot is hers

 

[Dawn825]

A rough day for the US ladies. Amber was nowhere near a score of 200, and looked possibly injured at the end of her program. Alysa stayed on her feet but got negative GOEs for 4 of her jumping passes. Not getting a medal here with no Russians isnt a great look for her.

 

[readernick]

The women who scored above Alysa deserved it. She has so many good qualities but the judges aren't going to reward her jumps due to her lack of running edge and height.

She is an incredible stable skater though ..

May Bradie heal. May Lindsay skate well at Nationals. I don't have a lot of confidence in our other skaters.

 

[ManyCairns]

It would be fantastic if Mariah came out in her best form for her GPs, and I hope Bradie can recover fully in time for nationals.

So far, nobody has made a strong BOW argument in the colloquial sense (meaning, not looking at which tier they are in, just that no one is winning medals or having skates of their lives, getting lots of att'n, etc.) Of course, Alysa is having a good enough season and is imo a lock for the Nationals podium and the team. However, since none of our ladies is a strong medal contender, just send them to the Olympics in order of finish at Nationals.

 

[brakes]

There has been so much hype about Amber's personality/3axel/confidence/presentation since the beginning of the season, that I've been giving her some slack over and over again, but it's time to state obvious: in today's fs ladies field she's an average skater with less than average competitive nerve.

 

[dancelion21]

With Amber and Alysa both done with their Grand Prix seasons, and likely won't be competing again in the fall, their medians are 183.46 and 206.53.

Alysa has proven herself to be a consistent skater, scoring over 200 at every every competition. She has also been consistently making the same mistakes. She's struggled with rotating her combinations in the second half all season, and her 3A has been a very mixed bag as well. She's landed about as many as she's fallen on, and she's yet to get it fully rotated. For nationals, Alysa and her team should work on what jump layout they're going for. At the Challenger competitions Alysa went to, she went with a more conservative jump layout, doing a 2A+Eu+3S in the first half, a 3Lz+3T in the second half, and a 3F+2T in the second half. She was able to rotate those jumps more effectively, usually only getting unders/qs on the 3Lz+3T. On the Grand Prix, Alysa has been more ambitious with trying a 3Lz+Eu+3F and a 3F+2A+Seq which she's struggled to rotate. In this two month period for Alysa to train and peak for nationals, I hope her coaching team really evaluates whether these combos are really worth the additional base value or if they can improve her stamina enough so that she is able to fully rotate those jumps in the second half in competition.

Amber's competition nerves have not changed in the past season. She's a bit better than before in that she finally scored over 200, but she's still very capable of many mistakes which negatively impact her score. With her median, Amber will be going into Nationals in Group 4, where she will need to be in the top 3 to make it into Group 3.

This really helps Karen's chances at the Olympics, since even though her consistency has been highly questionable, based on the Committee's own rules, if Amber doesn't finish at the top 3 at Nationals, Karen will be chosen over Amber by virtue of the fact that Karen's in a higher group thanks to her scores from 2021 Worlds. For Karen's best chance at the Olympics, she will hope that Mariah doesn't score well enough to move into Group 3 and neither does Lindsay. In which case, Karen's Olympic spot will be all-but-guaranteed since at most only three additional skaters can move into Group 3 as a result of US Nationals, and the most likely scenario is that two of the top 3 will be Alysa and Isabeau, so it's likely that only one new skater will be moving into Group 3, which still gives Karen an Olympic spot.

 

[readernick]

There has been so much hype about Amber's personality/3axel/confidence/presentation since the beginning of the season, that I've been giving her some slack over and over again, but it's time to state obvious: in today's fs ladies field she's an average skater with less than average competitive nerve.

All the US senior ladies are average skaters. However, what makes the difference is how they skate in competition. Bradie carried the US women for several years. She was so stable and had some standout elements. Without her presence, the US women looks very weak compared to the Russians and Japanese. Alysa is stable but she also limited in her scores due to URs. But, that's been the case for sometime in the US. As a positive, the juniors are better. No US senior women still make the GPF, but there are two juniors in the JGP.

 

[mrrice]

All the US senior ladies are average skaters. However, what makes the difference is how they skate in competition. Bradie carried the US women for several years. She was so stable and had some standout elements. Without her presence, the US women looks very weak compared to the Russians and Japanese. Alysa is stable but she also limited in her scores due to URs. But, that's been the case for sometime in the US. As a positive, the juniors are better. No US senior women still make the GPF, but there are two juniors in the JGP.

Thank goodness for Isabeau and Lindsay. This would have been a dismal GP season for the women without our Junior Ladies. Alysa is still our top senior but, she has got to get those jumps around.

 

[Moxiejan]

There has been so much hype about Amber's personality/3axel/confidence/presentation since the beginning of the season, that I've been giving her some slack over and over again, but it's time to state obvious: in today's fs ladies field she's an average skater with less than average competitive nerve.

It appeared that Amber was skating injured & STILL powered through a full LP; she refused to quit. Certainly shows competitive nerve.

 

[Amei]

It appeared that Amber was skating injured & STILL powered through a full LP; she refused to quit. Certainly shows competitive nerve.

Well 'injury' might be an excuse for NHK but the problem is that this was not a unique outing for Amber, this season is in line with how her career has gone - a few good performances and a few rough performances with bad placements.

The good news for Amber right now is that the US senior ladies as a whole have not been stand-out to this point, the top performance is Alysa finishing fourth here in a field that lost its heavy hitters/medal favorites before the competition started.

 

[LiamV426]

Alysa really needs to get rid of that 3Lz+1Eu+3F combo in the FS, she's struggling to rotate it and it's not even worth the hassle. A solo 3F and 3Lz+1Eu+3S would've been a more natural upgrade from the 2A+1Eu+3S. The URs are killing her scores and this felt like a missed opportunity for a podium spot. I'm sure having to peak for Nebelhorn had an effect on her GP season but she has plenty of time to prepare for Nationals so I really hope the team aim for a smarter FS layout.

I do feel bad for her tbh, people have put a lot of pressure on this girl to put a dent in Russian dominance. And those expectations were only based on her winning a couple of senior Bs where none of the main competition were present. Alysa always seems happy though, so I hope it's not getting to her.

 

[ManyCairns]

The stage is really set for Mariah to make a great impression, if she can --- she could, in effect, turn the season around for the US ladies with some emotional performances, which she is quite capable of.

 

[AlysaLiuStan]

Two solid and respectable GP performances from Alysa. I think she cemented her position as number 1 US woman.

Alysa with 7 UR jumps in the free skate managed to put up a score that matches the scores of other US women when they go perfect. Clean Karen Chen with her 4th at worlds scored a lower FS score than what Alysa did.