Where would Caroline have been?

[Tinymavy15]

I watched Caroline's LP just now. It was my favorite of the night. She skated it with speed, power, the jumps were fullt rotated. they looked bigger. If she had not fallen on the lutz, would she have won? Being in 2, she was the only one besides Mao, who was in last place after the SP who didn't make a mistake. (if she had that last lutz) what would have happened?

 

[chuckm]

Nothing would change. Her PCS scores would be low enough to keep her behind Kostner.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Nothing would change. Her PCS scores would be low enough to keep her behind Kostner.

The math for a fall is such it is certain she would place over Kostner overall without the fall. Unless you are suggesting they would just bring her PCS lower to compensate.

 

[feraina]

chuckm, you should check the protocols before you make such statements.

Caroline would've taken the bronze. She normally gets 5.0 for the solo 3Lz in the second half of the program. This time she got 1.09 for the downgraded 3lz with a fall. And another 1 point deduction for the fall, so she lost all 5 points. With 5 more points, she would've beaten Carolina Kostner in the LP, plus she had 2 points advantage from the SP. The overall difference was only 1.5 between Carolina K and Caroline Z, which would be easily overcome if she didn't fall.

The judges showed no hesitation in placing a clean Caroline over a faulty Carolina in the SP. They should not hesitate to do the same in the LP.

Now, if they had both skated clean in the SP and LP, Carolina K would've beaten Caroline by 1.5 in the SP, and 5.5 in the LP.

In general, Caroline Z is more consistent than Carolina K in putting out clean programs. This was Carolina K's cleanest competition ever, but for Caroline Z this was slightly below average performance. Consistency is something Carolina K can work on in the future; hopefully this competition was something to build on in that direction. She can also work on her spins and spirals more.

On Caroline Z's side, she can land her jumps more cleanly, and work on her speed/power. Once she brings up her PCS to the level of her peers, I think she will be beatable by only Mao and Yu-na. Even with the fall and the 'e' deductions, her TES was 3rd highest in the LP (and highest in the SP).

Tiny, I agree with you that Caroline skated with more speed, power (and confidence) in this competition. And her jumps were more fully rotated too. At SA, her 3-3's received -GOE's as well as downgrades. Since then, she's had them ratified with positive GOE's (in the GPF LP, she received 10.3 for her 3F-3T, the same as Carolina K). So for all those who cry lenient tech calling, I suggest closer observation of slow-mo videos! Not only did the tech panel ratify the jumps, but all the judges thought the combo was good too. I think she makes up for the lack of height with good in-air positions and strong landings. She never looks sloppy in these jumps.

 

[feraina]

One thing I fervently wish is that in the future, starting with the next season, Caroline should choose programs that encourage her to skate with more speed and flare. The Spanish Gypsy program was very good in that regard. She's very musical, she can't help but try to express the music she's skating too. When I first saw the Ave Maria program, I was like, NOOOO! It's the last thing she needs -- it's so slooooooooooooow and soooooooooooft. It showcases her dancing skills, but this is a skating contest, the judges would clobber her in the PCS despite the lovely interpretation.

She should also get rid of the long entry to the 3Lz altogether, and always use that short entry, which minimizes the flutz and also seems to be more stabilizing. She fell on the 3 Lz twice this season, both on that second, long-entry one -- and that same jump was called under-rotated at all three competitions. For the first 3Lz (+2T), she got some 0's from some judges at all three competitions, despite the 'e' marking, and she never under-rotated or fell on it.

 

[chuckm]

But Zhang doesn't get full credit for her lutz; she usually winds up with a 1.4 -GOE because of the edge deduction. So she'd actually gain just 4.51 points for landing the flutz (factoring in no -1 deduction).

I still think she'd wind up behind Kostner because some of those judges would have cut back more on her PCS score.

Kostner had 178.93.
Zhang had 61.82 from the SP.
Add 62.22 TES + 4.51 for the landed flutz + 61.82 = 128.55. With the PCS she had, that would beat Carolina by 3.06.

But the judges who wanted to could have lowered her PCS scores by about 0.25 for each component, and that would have left Carolina in 3rd.

Sorry, but after seeing Lambiel NOT getting a deduction for falling basically on all fours, and having him beat Takahashi by less than a point, I am convinced that the judges were intent on having Kostner, the lone European in the competition, on the podium.

I like Caroline Zhang very much, but I think she would have been off the podium unless Kostner had one of her implosions.

 

[feraina]

But Zhang doesn't get full credit for her lutz; she usually winds up with a 1.4 -GOE because of the edge deduction. So she'd actually gain just 4.51 points for landing the flutz (factoring in no -1 deduction).

I took into account her negative GOE. Don't forget she gets 10% bonus for putting it in the second half. Her three clean solo 3Lz's in her SP's this year got 4.4, 4.6, and 4.8 (all with the 'e' penalty). Adding 10% to 4.6 is just over 5.0.

Hypothesizing that judges would lower her PCS by .25 JUST to place her below Carolina... Well, for one thing that's bordering on the unethical in terms of judging. For another thing, like I said, they didn't hesitate to put a clean CZ over a faulty CK in the SP.

 

[eleonora.d]

This was Carolina K's cleanest competition ever, but for Caroline Z this was slightly below average performance.

No. Carolina K. had her best and cleaner long program @ Europeans 2007 (3 flip - 3 toe - 2 loop, 3lutz-2toe, 3 loop, 3 flip, second 3loop into single, 3 salchow, 2 axel). As for what concerns overall competitons (sp+long) maybe Worlds 2005(3flip3toe2loop again in the long) was the best ever (qualification included). For me, her sp at worlds in Tokyo was one of the best moments of her career.

Caroline Zhang...speed? Where have you seen some speed in her skating? I'm sorry, This young lady wants to be Sasha in every thing, and she copies her even in the flutz.
She's got an amazing grace, she's so light and pleasant to watch. I hope she will find her own way , her own style of skating, improve technique ( not consistency, she already has it!) on jumps, speed, and we will see some wonderful, wonderful skating in Vancouver!

 

[feraina]

Caroline Zhang...speed? Where have you seen some speed in her skating? I'm sorry, This young lady wants to be Sasha in every thing, and she copies her even in the flutz.

Thank God she doesn't copy Sasha in her mental toughness... But anyway, I never hesitated to point out Caroline's lack of speed compared to her peers. I merely agreed with Tiny that she showed more speed than in the past, especially compared to previous renditions of "Ave Maria" -- and like I pointed out in the next post, I think this program is bad for her, because it encourages her to skate even slower than what she's capable of.

 

[carolinefan177]

Let me just say that I adore both of her programs!! Ave Maria is so lyrical and suits her skating style very well. It show cases her grace, liquid movement (without making her lack of speed too blatant), lovely spins, and flexible spirals!!! 62 for a TES in the long is not bad at all. If she got that lutz it would have been 67 or close to that (and Kims and Maos were in the low 70s)!! I think she is going to be a force at nationals, and I will not be surprised at seeing her junior world champ for the second consecutive year. I wonder how she is going to change her lp though (to correlate with the timing), and how the judges will score her since she is moving back to junior comp...Will they still call her lutz a flutz (Rachel's and Mirai's weren't)

 

[chuckm]

Hypothesizing that judges would lower her PCS by .25 JUST to place her below Carolina... Well, for one thing that's bordering on the unethical in terms of judging. For another thing, like I said, they didn't hesitate to put a clean CZ over a faulty CK in the SP.

Yes, but the SP is not the medal-deciding segment---the FS is. I agree that is would be bordering on the unethical, but that wouldn't stop the judges from doing it. All three of the other disciplines had European winners (Lambiel, S/S and DomShabs), and Italy is Kostner's home country, so the pressure was there to put her on the podium with Ottavio Giaquinta in attendance.

I still can't figure out how Carolina got level4 for her spiral sequence when she started to reach for her leg to go into a Biellmann, and couldn't grab the leg, so was forced to abort the move. She even got +0.2GOE on it!

ETA: Please note I didn't say Caroline Zhang didn't or wouldn't have deserved to be on the podium. I just don't think it was going to be allowed to happen.

 

[eleonora.d]

Thank God she doesn't copy Sasha in her mental toughness...

Yeah, Caroline Z looks much stronger, may be to early to say.. we'll see !

 

[feraina]

I still can't figure out how Carolina got level4 for her spiral sequence when she started to reach for her leg to go into a Biellmann, and couldn't grab the leg, so was forced to abort the move. She even got +0.2GOE on it!

I guess for the sake of our sport, I hope you're wrong with Carolina. Did she really get level 4 or that spiral sequence? Oh, my, I was thinking ack, that's the same mistake that Miki made at NHK and it cost her dearly (level 1 and - GOE, wasn't it?). Maybe the judges were all sighing with relief when Caroline Z fell. I hope not!

 

[eleonora.d]

oh it was so damn predictable someone would scream the world italian mafia wanted Carolina on the podium. Shall we talk about Asada's score in SP? Or Meissner's PCS in sp? Carolina was bronze and deserved bronze.

I can agree with you that spirals should have been lv 3 because of the biellman, but step sequence should have been lv4 again just like in Japan, she deserves that level, and it was lv3, so it's illogical. But I don't get judges anyways, especially after this final'SP (crazy...), so :scratch:

 

[feraina]

Let me just say that I adore both of her programs!! Ave Maria is so lyrical and suits her skating style very well. It show cases her grace, liquid movement (without making her lack of speed too blatant), lovely spins, and flexible spirals!!!

I love it too, but I think it's better for exhibition than a competitive program. Certainly for an Olympic program, she will need something rousing that finishes with aplomb, and which will bring the audience to their feet before the program finishes. :yes:

I will not be surprised at seeing her junior world champ for the second consecutive year.

That would make her the first ever double junior champion. Mao was the only previous underage junior champion who had to go back to JW despite a good senior GP season. But Caroline doesn't have history on her side. Mao bombed her second JW, after trumping Irina Slutskaya at the GPF and being heralded all season as having the potential of winning the OGM had she been of age. Kimmie couldn't even get on the JW podium (4th) after getting bronze at senior National's with a 3A and 3/3 -- she won silver the year before.

I think perhaps training a longer LP all season (through National's), makes it really hard to adapt to a shorter LP. It kinda throws you off psychologically or something.

 

[chuckm]

I guess for the sake of our sport, I hope you're wrong with Carolina. Did she really get level 4 or that spiral sequence? Oh, my, I was thinking ack, that's the same mistake that Miki made at NHK and it cost her dearly (level 1 and - GOE, wasn't it?). Maybe the judges were all sighing with relief when Caroline Z fell. I hope not!

You're right, and I remember that mistake. Miki got level1, the sequence was worth just 1.6 points, and she got -.08GOE for a total of 1.74 points, vs. Kostner's 3.6 points.

 

[feraina]

Actually, for similar reasons, I wonder about Mirai and Rachael's senior debut at National's. They've done well at the junior level (though both have gotten downgrades this season), but they have little time to train their senior LP's between JGPF and National's. They didn't even get to put their senior programs out there in sectionals/regionals because of the byes. If seniors returning to junior worlds at the end of the season have mostly failed to adapt, what does it mean for juniors who throw together a senior program after competing their junior programs all season?

The most successful of U.S. ladies to have gone this path is Sarah Hughes, who at 13 placed 2nd in two JGP assignments as well as the JGPF (also 2nd at JW), and managed 4th at her senior Natioanal's debut. Sasha Cohen, at 15, competed in one JGP event (gold), qualified with 1st place in Senior Sectional's, then medaled silver at National's (and only placed 6th at JW). So Sasha spent more of that season in senior's, and maybe that extra senior exposure/training is part of why she placed so low at JW.

 

[chuckm]

Rachael and Mirai will have had the 6 weeks between the JGPF and Nationals to practice their Senior programs exclusively. Both of them competed and won with their Senior programs during the summer: Rachael at Broadmoor and Liberty, Mirai at the LA Open.

The differences between the Junior and Senior programs aren't that great. The Juniors had to do a 3L in the SP rather than a choice of jumps, and the FS has one extra spin. Mirai has experienced some problems with underrotating her flip during the JGP, but Rachael has landed both lutz and flip cleanly.

 

[feraina]

Rachael and Mirai will have had the 6 weeks between the JGPF and Nationals to practice their Senior programs exclusively. Both of them competed and won with their Senior programs during the summer: Rachael at Broadmoor and Liberty, Mirai at the LA Open.

The differences between the Junior and Senior programs aren't that great. The Juniors had to do a 3L in the SP rather than a choice of jumps, and the FS has one extra spin. Mirai has experienced some problems with underrotating her flip during the JGP, but Rachael has landed both lutz and flip cleanly.

But I think Rachael had her 3/3 downgraded in every SP this season, hasn't she?

I say kudos to them if they can get on the podium -- maybe that'll serve as wake-up call to the senior ladies who get motivated and work harder.

 

[Sylvia]

Rachael Flatt will be a second year senior at Nationals. And remember that she competed her Senior SP at the Japan Invitational team event in September (and then went straight to Chemnitz, Germany for her 2nd JGP).