Evan back in drivers seat over Weir heading into U.S Nationals?

[slutskayafan21]

It appeared as if Johnny Weir might have been gaining a little momentum over his chief U.S rival Evan Lysacek heading into U.S Nationals. Now after Evan's trouncing of Weir in the GP final has the momentum switched back the other way?

 

[jennylovskt]

Evan was not back in the driver's seat after GPF. He is on the driver's seat from this season start. Personally, I think Evan's PCS should be much lower than Johnny's. The reality is they are tied. Evan has a slight advantage on the Technical side because he has a quad in SP and a quad combo in LP. They are so close tied in each competition, it will be like this at the Nationals too, if Evan won't get another time outrageous marks.

If Johnny doesn't have a solid quad in LP by the Nationals (it doesn't have to be a combo.), Evan will be the one who decides who is going to win the gold and who is silver.

If Johnny has a solid quad in his LP, with two clean SP and LP programs, Johnny will win for sure, no matter how good and clean Evan skates. (Hope the judges mark them fairly.)

 

[Vodka Shot]

I really don't see how Johnny can win his title back. Lysacek has a quad in his SP and a quad combo in his long, of course there's a chance he won't land them, but we all know if he rotates them he's still good. Johnny will not even try a quad (I don't think) unless he thinks he can land it or if he sees it as a lost cause anyway. If Johnny can fit at least a 4T into his LP and not even make it into a combo that would help big time.

Lysacek also got level 4 on his straight line sequence at GPF, where as Johnny got level 3's on both circular and straight. Based on what Johnny said in his recent Russian fan interview I don't think he'll work too hard to try and bring either of his FW sequences to level 4.

They both got two level 3's and two level 4's for each of their 4 spins. This is somewhere where I think Johnny can make up some points. Lysacek is going to be so focused on quad training he might not work too much on his spins (which I think are shotty to begin with and undeserving of level 3's but whatever) maybe Johnny can work to bring his other 2 spins up to level 4's.

I think Johnny needs to work on getting at least one quad into his LP, try and bring at least one FW sequence up to level 4, and try and get his other two spins up to level 4. If he does that and skates clean then I think he can win. It's sad that it would take that much, but considering the wild inflation of Lysacek's scores and what I consider to be strong US judge bias in Lysacek's favor Johnny will have to be *much* better to win.

Honestly, I don't think he has a shot in hell :disapp:

Maybe if he sleeps with the judges, brokers peace in the middle east, and donates a kidney or something....

 

[momjudi]

I don't think it's fair to judge what happend in the grand prix final as what will happen at nationals. Johnny scored higher then Evan at all the other grand prix events this seaon and then skated injured in the finals. We have no idea what Johnny had planned for the final before his injury, a quad? higher level footwork? higher level spins? I find it hard to believe that if he is uninjured at nationals, Johnny will not go for the quad combo and the highest level of spins and footwork he is capable of. Johnny wants to win his national title back, let's just hope the judges are fair and don't bow to the usfsa's opinion of what a national champion should be.

 

[debdelilah]

I find it hard to believe that if he is uninjured at nationals, Johnny will not go for the quad combo and the highest level of spins and footwork he is capable of.

Maybe the quad, but I don't think in combination. He's better off not going for the quad in the SP at all, but if he leaves it out in the LP, he'll limit himself to 8 triples when Lysacek has the opportunity to do a quad and 8 triples, making it so that he(Lysacek) would still be ahead in tech points even if he fell on the quad.

On the other hand, if he's not able to fully rotate the quad, it's better he leaves it out entirely. A 4T downgraded is worth less than a clean triple toe, and a 4T downgraded with a fall is worth next to nothing. I think underrotation in practice(and falls) is probably the reason he's not been doing it.

 

[Tinymavy15]

i still think that Johnny is the favorite going to Cleavland. He is not the huge favorite as he was before, he has proven that he can be beaten and that he is not the consistant skater that he though he was.

 

[momjudi]

i still think that Johnny is the favorite going to Cleavland. He is not the huge favorite as he was before, he has proven that he can be beaten and that he is not the consistant skater that he though he was.

Cleavland???? Nationals are in St. Paul, Minn.

 

[TravellinJones]

Cleavland???? Nationals are in St. Paul, Minn.

That's true for 2008.

But they are in Cleveland in 2009.

 

[momjudi]

okay, didn't realize poster was talking that far ahead

 

[netnuts]

Evan is better. He is powerful, sharp which is what's needed in men's skating.

 

[tae04]

I'd still say Evan is the favorite. If Weir continues to not go for the quad he will continue to be behind Lysacek, Lambiel, and Takahashi if they are remotely clean.

 

[gold12345]

I really don't think either one of them is the favorite right now. On any given day, either of them could win. Evan certainly has more international success though.

 

[Jaana]

I think that Lysacek (fortunately) has not peaked too early for this season. In fall competitions he has gotten better and better in each event, and now succeeded better with the quad at GPF and besides two other elements he also got level 4 for his straight line sequence. And in Cup of China freeskate he had four elements on level 4:

http://www.isufs.org/results/gpchn07/gpchn07_Men_FS_Scores.pdf

So, for anyone to believe that he is focusing on quad training and might not work other elements so much, it sure is time to start seeing the matter differently..., LOL.

Well, the US Nationals will be interesting again, LOL, and besides Lysacek and Weir I hope that Abbot will place on the podium... His season has not succeeded as well as it could have, but there is still a bit time till the Nationals.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

That's true for 2008.

But they are in Cleveland in 2009.

And just before HOLLYWOOD!!!. Everyone will be there. Cohen, Kwan, Kerrigan, Dick and Peggy. Governor Schwartzernegger will make a welcoming speech on behalf of the City of Angels and give the key to the city to Cinquanta.

Joe

 

[Tonichelle]

oy.


Yes, I think Evan's the favorite, not only for the GPF and the medals one on the circuit but he's the reigning National Champ.

We'll see come January if he handles that pressure (for once he's not hunting but being hunted)

Johnny just may want the title more (ala Evan last year) and it'll be a showdown... if both take the smart way and keep themselves uninjured....

can't wait to see it.

 

[slutskayafan21]

The funny thing last year is the showdown also had the two split up by a surprise in the end. Any chance of someone shocking everyone and splitting them up by taking the silver and demoting one to bronze again this year? Personally I could not imagine that happening this year, mind you last year I was very surprised, but this year absolutely no way could I see that happening.

 

[Tonichelle]

I was surprised only because I thought they'd gift Johnny considering he was the reigning multiple times over Champion... but his less than stellar record at the big events had a factor I guess...

That being said I still feel Johnny will come back with a vengence and have two great skates. Evan is my question mark as I stated earlier...

I would love to see Bradley make the podium again... but I dunno...

 

[jennylovskt]

It is true that the fact that Evan's been hunted instead of hunting made him more vulnerable in making mistakes. Can he pull out another skate of the life at this year's Nationals? I don't know. We haven't seen any performances as powerful as the one at last year's Nationals ever since. Certainly Evan's competitive spirit will be the key at such time. His quad has only 50-50 chance to be successful in the competition at this point.

The most important part of this match, to me, is how tough Johnny could be at the time like this. He certainly has the ability, has the best skills, has everything, except the toughness of the mind. I wish he could work with some specialists to overcome this weakness. The right training regimen is not enough for him. JMO.

 

[Tinymavy15]

okay, didn't realize poster was talking that far ahead

no, i got it wrong.. by bad.

And just before HOLLYWOOD!!!. Everyone will be there. Cohen, Kwan, Kerrigan, Dick and Peggy. Governor Schwartzernegger will make a welcoming speech on behalf of the City of Angels and give the key to the city to Cinquanta.

Joe

i know. I can't wait for worlds in LA. so many skaters train around here, sasha will probably come... with skates or without... and Caroline can comepete!

 

[dizzydi7]

Evan back in drivers seat over Weir heading into US Nationals?

I'm concerned about whether Johnny can pull himself up from his defeat at the GPF. It seems that Johnny gets good momentum when he is winning but has a tendency to remain in a slump once he is defeated or has a bad skate.

It will be very interesting to see what kind of performance he produces at Nationals this year. It may very well be the key to his future as a skater.

Dizzy