The case where Tuktamysheva is chosen is simple. She outscores Trusova.
Now on the other hand the last time Liza gave a good performance at nationals was like 6 years ago. So it should not be hard for Trusova to beat her. But it also was not supposed to be hard for Trusova to beat Anna which she hasn’t done since 2019 Junior worlds
Agree, Tuktamysheva needs to outscore Trusova at Nationals, if she doesn't there is very little justification in the Fed going with her besides the awful suggestion that they want to show they don't need teenagers to win or want all of their skaters to come from 1 coaching team. And yes, Tuktamysheva has struggled to deliver at Nationals so this is certainly in Trusova's favor
Regardless of whether Trusova goes for 2 quads and falls on one (beatable) or 5 quads and falls on 3 (beatable). Trusova unfortunately is just not consistent with the quads. And she clearly has a problem with nerves, she is always practicing well and then competing below that, the opposite of Anna and Aliona.
Yes, Trusova as a senior has shown a consistent issue with competition nerves, I think it largely stems from her biting off more than she can chew on her jumps (quads and triple axel), that's why I mentioned in 1 of my earlier posts that her being on the team might be stipulated on her not going full out on the 5 quads at Olympics (save that bomb for Worlds). For the most part when she has been more reasonable with her quads sticking to 2-3 she has been mostly clean with the exception of Europeans 2020, which was a bad competition for all 3 Russians.
Ofc Im a realist & thats how the things are going.

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