Knierim and Frazier withdraw due to Covid

[mrrice]

The most important thing right now is Brandon's Health. Like Michelle Kwan in 2006, as the defending Champions, they are certainly up for a committee bid. My problem is that I worry about him getting back out there too soon. With Novak Djokovic being denied entry into the Australian Open, I think countries are going to be very strict on following Covid Guidelines. I worry about them being admitted into Beijing even if the committee gave them a shot.

 

[Arriba627]

Devastated for Brandon. Hope Alexa is ok. Hoping they can petition.

 

[bigsisjiejie]

The most important thing right now is Brandon's Health. Like Michelle Kwan in 2006, as the defending Champions, they are certainly up for a committee bid. My problem is that I worry about him getting back out there too soon. With Novak Djokovic being denied entry into the Australian Open, I think countries are going to be very strict on following Covid Guidelines. I worry about them being admitted into Beijing even if the committee gave them a shot.

This is a very real possibility. The Chinese have stated they will ONLY use/accept a negative PCR test (not a rapid antigen) for admittance into the country for Olympic Games participation. However, PCR tests are sensitive enough that they can pick up virus fragments and render a positive from someone who has had the infection, even many weeks after they have recovered and well beyond infectiousness. It is possible that even if Frazier is cleared by the USFS and US Olympic Committee, that he could render up a positive PCR test in China and be clapped into a lengthy isolation (or sent back). I would think that both USFS and USOC are well aware of the risks, and if they choose to accept a Scimeca/Frazier petition onto the US team, that they will have the alternates queued up and ready to go.

 

[Skater Boy]

How sad for them, and the US, because this is our best pair and it's in our best interest to use them in the Olympic Team Event assuming they are recovered and ready to go by then. Their petition definitely should be granted. I don't think it should matter much if the other pairs skate above their usual at Nationals, especially because one could argue that there's less pressure when the top team is missing, and who knows if they would skate differently with K/F there. For example, there has been more than one occasion where it felt like Calalang/Johnson would get affected having to follow a strong K/F skate.

I was really convinced K/F were going to repeat as US champions. They must feel devastated, especially because they took so many precautions and have looked so good leading up to the event. Alexa posted a really strong vid of their LP from a few days ago. If anything, it's good to test positive now instead of before trying to board the plane to Beijing.


The US's selection procedures allow for Knierim/Frazier to be frontrunners for the Olympic team without competing at Nationals. The key stat they are looking at is Median international score

Knierim/Frazier 202.97
Calalang/Johnson 195.98
Cain/Leduc 191.45
Lu/Mitrofanov 190.03

It seems they might calculate the Median with Worlds included (K/F also have an advantage as the top US finisher).

Median score going back to Worlds

Knierim/Frazier 202.33
Calalang/Johnson 195.98
Lu/Mitrofanov 190.03
Cain/LeDuc 189.90

Knierim/Frazier's median score is higher than the 5th place score at 2021 Worlds and consequently should place them alone among US pairs in "Priority Group 2", which is listed as the first method for selecting the Olympic team in USFS's Selection Procedures; the other 3 US pairs are in "Priority Group 3" and then would need further tiebreakers to separate them.


These are all of the US's international scores. K/F's scores are pretty drastically higher than the other pairs, it's really not close.

Knierim/Frazier: 212.55, 205.87, 202.97, 201.69, 186.69
Cain/LeDuc: 202.79, 193.00, 189.90, 170.64
Calalang/Johnson: 197.42, 196.85, 196.69, 195.28, 191.89, 180.49
Lu/Mitrofanov: 195.32, 195.20, 190.03, 186.16, 158.81

There's also a paragraph in the selection procedures that says if the GPF gets canceled (it did), they would maybe take into account 2020 Skate America as well to give these skaters a bigger Body of Work. And K/F won that event convincingly over all the other US pairs.

Aside from scores and the fact that they're nearly undefeated among US pairs throughout their entire partnership so far, K/F just flat out have the best potential to score well. So hopefully Brandon recovers well and the US does the right thing in selecting them. This is the US pair I'm most invested in, and I'd really be crushed if their great momentum as a newer pair gets stalled. They deserve to go to the Olympics.

I think the words "they deserve to go to the olympics" is a bit of a red herring. There are a lot of deserving skaters.

 

[Skater Boy]

Covid has really put a wrench into things. This may be KF's only chance to go to the olympics. Still others have worked hard too. One poster suggested 2026. That's a long time especially for Alexa and her husband. It is funny that years ago the only hope you had a chance really of going to worlds or olympics without skating at your nationals is if you had a world medal; now it seems they have gone down the "list".

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

That sucks, but hopefully Brandon recovers and is in form for Beijing if they get to go.

I also think if there are formidable skates by the top 2 placements at Nationals, then whoever places 2nd should have a skate off with K/F.

I know there are other criteria like median scores, etc. etc. but if USA really wants to send the best pairs to the Olympics that's the fairest way.

edit: after those stellar short programs, if C/J and C-G/L slay the free skates, this makes the selection committee's choices VERY difficult.

 

[bigsisjiejie]

I assume the Olympic figure skating team members will need to leave the USA the very end of this month. If Frazier feels as bad as he looks and sounds in his video, then he's not going to be back into full training for a couple of weeks at least. That's a major loss of momentum. This illness hit at probably the worst possible time for S/F. It's a real shame.

 

[mrrice]

I think the words "they deserve to go to the olympics" is a bit of a red herring. There are a lot of deserving skaters.

I agree, for me lm just sad at the unfortunate timing. I can't imagine they'll be around another 4 years and they had really worked hard to win last year.

 

[Skater Boy]

I agree, for me lm just sad at the unfortunate timing. I can't imagine they'll be around another 4 years and they had really worked hard to win last year.

I agree; I wasn't saying I wasn't cheering for Knerim and Frazier. But there are compelling stories for so many. I am curious to the poster who said maybe they will continue until 2026. That would be something. So much to consider. The body, Other goals regarding career, work Family, marriage. Finances. No guarantees. Also, I wonder how Alexa's husband would feel about another 4 years of her training or the olympics and no guarantees. I appreciate its her life.

 

[mrrice]

I agree; I wasn't saying I wasn't cheering for Knerim and Frazier. But there are compelling stories for so many. I am curious to the poster who said maybe they will continue until 2026. That would be something. So much to consider. The body, Other goals regarding career, work Family, marriage. Finances. No guarantees. Also, I wonder how Alexa's husband would feel about another 4 years of her training or the olympics and no guarantees. I appreciate its her life.

This is exactly how I feel. If Chris and Alexa are going to start a family, I imagine her training and traveling for another 4 years would put a damper on those plans. Being realistic, they are not a medal threat at Worlds and if they can't go to the Olympics, I wonder what their new goals would be.

 

[LiamForeman]

In someways this is an ironic argument to send Liza. If one of Eteri, Diana, Anna, Sasha, or Kamila test positive. I suspect they all will have been exposed. It really is kinda putting all their eggs in one basket. Let's just say i think two of them getting is more likely than only one. I mean if Eteri test positive... well that is a lot of Russians that will have been exposed.

I agree. It almost seems inevitable that these skaters will eventually have a positive Covid test. I just found out that hubs tested positive today, so that explains my symptoms. However, I only felt mildly "off" compared to the hell I endured in 2020 and lost 30 pounds (I've since lost another 30 more and haven't yet regained my energy and strength after an entire year). I'm glad I didn't fly to Nashville today. I'm sure the crowd would be happy... I feel badly for all the skaters.

 

[gold12345]

This is a very real possibility. The Chinese have stated they will ONLY use/accept a negative PCR test (not a rapid antigen) for admittance into the country for Olympic Games participation. However, PCR tests are sensitive enough that they can pick up virus fragments and render a positive from someone who has had the infection, even many weeks after they have recovered and well beyond infectiousness. It is possible that even if Frazier is cleared by the USFS and US Olympic Committee, that he could render up a positive PCR test in China and be clapped into a lengthy isolation (or sent back). I would think that both USFS and USOC are well aware of the risks, and if they choose to accept a Scimeca/Frazier petition onto the US team, that they will have the alternates queued up and ready to go.

If the PCR test is that sensitive and inaccurate, why is that the only thing being used? There are a bunch of Olympic athletes who have recently tested positive, including Olympic stars like Shaun White and Mikaela Shiffrin, so everyone's going to be in the same boat. It's possible any athlete could test positive in China whether they've had it before or not. It seems you're better off having had it already-- assuming PCR tests actually work and they aren't going to kick people out of the Olympics when they aren't even contagious anymore. I know plenty of people who have had it recently and aren't still testing positive.

I think the words "they deserve to go to the olympics" is a bit of a red herring. There are a lot of deserving skaters.

I specified numerical reasons why they deserve to go to the Olympics in my post. All these athletes work their tails off, but there's a clear pecking order, and certain skaters deserve it more than others. The goal is to send your best skaters to the Olympics who have the best potential.

That sucks, but hopefully Brandon recovers and is in form for Beijing if they get to go.

I also think if there are formidable skates by the top 2 placements at Nationals, then whoever places 2nd should have a skate off with K/F.

I know there are other criteria like median scores, etc. etc. but if USA really wants to send the best pairs to the Olympics that's the fairest way.

There's no way to determine your best skaters based on one competition only, which is why countries have moved away from selecting their Olympic teams based on just Nationals. In the US, we have a Selections Procedure document which takes into account all competitions over an extended period of time, and Nationals is just Nationals, not an Olympic Trials like the olden days. Knierim/Frazier have beaten Calalang/Johnson at all 6 competitions they have faced off at, why would they need a skate off. If you follow C/J closely, most of their best skates have come at Nationals, not international events, and I would think the Selection committee is aware of that. But I'm always concerned about skaters having a "Skate of their Life" at Nationals that doesn't reflect how they do internationally.

I assume the Olympic figure skating team members will need to leave the USA the very end of this month. If Frazier feels as bad as he looks and sounds in his video, then he's not going to be back into full training for a couple of weeks at least. That's a major loss of momentum. This illness hit at probably the worst possible time for S/F. It's a real shame.

James/Radford recovered just fine and are going to compete on about 4 days of training. US Nationals is very early this year- there's an entire month before the Pairs SP of the Team Event at the Olympics, and the actual Pair event isn't until February 18 which is a long time from now. Alexa is very used to this-- She missed Nationals in 2017 and was still selected for Worlds/4CC a couple weeks later, and did great there. Brandon was crying/emotional in that video, so that could have made him sound worse than he actually was. Even if he lost his voice entirely, I wouldn't see it as alarming. Even with bad symptoms, plenty of people are recovering from this strain quickly. We can't judge based on his video.

Also, I wonder how Alexa's husband would feel about another 4 years of her training or the olympics and no guarantees. I appreciate its her life.

Chris seems very supportive of her. She covers a lot of her expenses herself. What a woman does with her career should be mostly, if not totally, up to her. Nothing is guaranteed; giving it your best shot and enjoying the daily process is what's important.

If Chris and Alexa are going to start a family, I imagine her training and traveling for another 4 years would put a damper on those plans. Being realistic, they are not a medal threat at Worlds and if they can't go to the Olympics, I wonder what their new goals would be.

Just because a skater is married we shouldn't assume they have immediate plans to have a kid. It's not like she's 39? She's young enough where she can do whatever she wants with her life. A lot of pair skaters skate until at least mid-30s. Her own coaches Meno & Sand didn't have a kid until they were considerably older than Alexa is now. If skaters only skated because they were guaranteed World medals, there would hardly be any skaters in the world. You can't medal at Worlds unless you try. A top 5 would be a huge milestone. There's a lot of goals K/F could set- they haven't even had one full competition season yet and they are doing their best ever skating.

A good goal for next season would be actually getting to compete at Nationals and not having to leave the event distraught. They have hinted a few times at wanting to continue. Who would want to end on this ridiculous note? But if they don't go to this Olympics, I fear they might quit immediately and never grow their partnership. Who knows. But if you are your country's top pair consistently over the course of 2 seasons and get denied an Olympic spot because you came down with a fever or whatever, I would be worried those athletes will quit.

 

[LiamForeman]

^^^^^^ Well said! Thank you!

 

[moonvine]

Covid has really put a wrench into things. This may be KF's only chance to go to the olympics. Still others have worked hard too. One poster suggested 2026. That's a long time especially for Alexa and her husband. It is funny that years ago the only hope you had a chance really of going to worlds or olympics without skating at your nationals is if you had a world medal; now it seems they have gone down the "list".

This is special Covid circumstances. There are 8 pairs there. Half of them will medal. Normally a pair would only WD this close to Nationals due to injury. Covid, while it can be very serious, isn’t always. We need our #1 team for the pairs event if at all possible. In the case Brandon takes a long time to recover or can’t obtain a negative Covid test, the alternates should be prepared to go. Based on the WD from Nationals (1/3 of all entrants) the 2nd or even 3rd alternate may end up actually going.

 

[moonvine]

If the PCR test is that sensitive and inaccurate, why is that the only thing being used? There are a bunch of Olympic athletes who have recently tested positive, including Olympic stars like Shaun White and Mikaela Shiffrin, so everyone's going to be in the same boat. It's possible any athlete could test positive in China whether they've had it before or not. It seems you're better off having had it already-- assuming PCR tests actually work and they aren't going to kick people out of the Olympics when they aren't even contagious anymore. I know plenty of people who have had it recently and aren't still testing positive.




I specified numerical reasons why they deserve to go to the Olympics in my post. All these athletes work their tails off, but there's a clear pecking order, and certain skaters deserve it more than others. The goal is to send your best skaters to the Olympics who have the best potential.




There's no way to determine your best skaters based on one competition only, which is why countries have moved away from selecting their Olympic teams based on just Nationals. In the US, we have a Selections Procedure document which takes into account all competitions over an extended period of time, and Nationals is just Nationals, not an Olympic Trials like the olden days. Knierim/Frazier have beaten Calalang/Johnson at all 6 competitions they have faced off at, why would they need a skate off. If you follow C/J closely, most of their best skates have come at Nationals, not international events, and I would think the Selection committee is aware of that. But I'm always concerned about skaters having a "Skate of their Life" at Nationals that doesn't reflect how they do internationally.




James/Radford recovered just fine and are going to compete on about 4 days of training. US Nationals is very early this year- there's an entire month before the Pairs SP of the Team Event at the Olympics, and the actual Pair event isn't until February 18 which is a long time from now. Alexa is very used to this-- She missed Nationals in 2017 and was still selected for Worlds/4CC a couple weeks later, and did great there. Brandon was crying/emotional in that video, so that could have made him sound worse than he actually was. Even if he lost his voice entirely, I wouldn't see it as alarming. Even with bad symptoms, plenty of people are recovering from this strain quickly. We can't judge based on his video.




Chris seems very supportive of her. She covers a lot of her expenses herself. What a woman does with her career should be mostly, if not totally, up to her. Nothing is guaranteed, giving it your best shot and enjoying the daily process is what's important.



Just because a skater is married we shouldn't assume they have immediate plans to have a kid. It's not like she's 39? She's young enough where she can do whatever she wants with her life. A lot of pair skaters skate until at least mid-30s. Her own coaches Meno & Sand didn't have a kid until they were considerably older than Alexa is now. If skaters only skated because they were guaranteed World medals, there would hardly be any skaters in the world. You can't medal at Worlds unless you try. A top 5 would be a huge milestone. There's a lot of goals K/F could set- they haven't even had one full competition season yet and they are doing their best ever skating.

A good goal for next season would be actually getting to compete at Nationals and not having to leave the event distraught. They have hinted a few times at wanting to continue. Who would want to end on this ridiculous note? But if they don't go to this Olympics, I fear they might quit immediately and never grow their partnership. Who knows. But if you are your country's top pair consistently over the course of 2 seasons and get denied an Olympic spot because you came down with a fever or whatever, I would be worried those athletes will quit.

They have not just hinted at continuing. They’ve come out and said it. Now whether they change their minds, who can say?

I don’t get the tendency of posters to pre retire people. Let them decide when to retire on their own.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

If the PCR test is that sensitive and inaccurate, why is that the only thing being used? There are a bunch of Olympic athletes who have recently tested positive, including Olympic stars like Shaun White and Mikaela Shiffrin, so everyone's going to be in the same boat. It's possible any athlete could test positive in China whether they've had it before or not. It seems you're better off having had it already-- assuming PCR tests actually work and they aren't going to kick people out of the Olympics when they aren't even contagious anymore. I know plenty of people who have had it recently and aren't still testing positive.




I specified numerical reasons why they deserve to go to the Olympics in my post. All these athletes work their tails off, but there's a clear pecking order, and certain skaters deserve it more than others. The goal is to send your best skaters to the Olympics who have the best potential.




There's no way to determine your best skaters based on one competition only, which is why countries have moved away from selecting their Olympic teams based on just Nationals. In the US, we have a Selections Procedure document which takes into account all competitions over an extended period of time, and Nationals is just Nationals, not an Olympic Trials like the olden days. Knierim/Frazier have beaten Calalang/Johnson at all 6 competitions they have faced off at, why would they need a skate off. If you follow C/J closely, most of their best skates have come at Nationals, not international events, and I would think the Selection committee is aware of that. But I'm always concerned about skaters having a "Skate of their Life" at Nationals that doesn't reflect how they do internationally.




James/Radford recovered just fine and are going to compete on about 4 days of training. US Nationals is very early this year- there's an entire month before the Pairs SP of the Team Event at the Olympics, and the actual Pair event isn't until February 18 which is a long time from now. Alexa is very used to this-- She missed Nationals in 2017 and was still selected for Worlds/4CC a couple weeks later, and did great there. Brandon was crying/emotional in that video, so that could have made him sound worse than he actually was. Even if he lost his voice entirely, I wouldn't see it as alarming. Even with bad symptoms, plenty of people are recovering from this strain quickly. We can't judge based on his video.




Chris seems very supportive of her. She covers a lot of her expenses herself. What a woman does with her career should be mostly, if not totally, up to her. Nothing is guaranteed, giving it your best shot and enjoying the daily process is what's important.



Just because a skater is married we shouldn't assume they have immediate plans to have a kid. It's not like she's 39? She's young enough where she can do whatever she wants with her life. A lot of pair skaters skate until at least mid-30s. Her own coaches Meno & Sand didn't have a kid until they were considerably older than Alexa is now. If skaters only skated because they were guaranteed World medals, there would hardly be any skaters in the world. You can't medal at Worlds unless you try. A top 5 would be a huge milestone. There's a lot of goals K/F could set- they haven't even had one full competition season yet and they are doing their best ever skating.

A good goal for next season would be actually getting to compete at Nationals and not having to leave the event distraught. They have hinted a few times at wanting to continue. Who would want to end on this ridiculous note? But if they don't go to this Olympics, I fear they might quit immediately and never grow their partnership. Who knows. But if you are your country's top pair consistently over the course of 2 seasons and get denied an Olympic spot because you came down with a fever or whatever, I would be worried those athletes will quit.

If the head-to-head is that much in favour of S-K/F, then yeah maybe if C/J place 2nd at Nationals, it's an easier decision for the USFS. But if C/J win, there should be a skateoff with C-G/L. TBH though, I think the fairest thing is still a skate-off with the silver medalists because both C/J and C-G/L are viable options and depending on how they skate they could have actually both beaten S-K/F.

 

[SnowWhite]

If the head-to-head is that much in favour of S-K/F, then yeah maybe if C/J place 2nd at Nationals, it's an easier decision for the USFS. But if C/J win, there should be a skateoff with C-G/L. TBH though, I think the fairest thing is still a skate-off with the silver medalists because both C/J and C-G/L are viable options and depending on how they skate they could have actually both beaten S-K/F.

And K/F would still have gotten a spot as long as they placed top 5, if the USFS was following their own rules. Because K/F were the only team with international scores to put them in group 2.

 

[bigsisjiejie]

If the PCR test is that sensitive and inaccurate, why is that the only thing being used? There are a bunch of Olympic athletes who have recently tested positive, including Olympic stars like Shaun White and Mikaela Shiffrin, so everyone's going to be in the same boat. It's possible any athlete could test positive in China whether they've had it before or not. It seems you're better off having had it already-- assuming PCR tests actually work and they aren't going to kick people out of the Olympics when they aren't even contagious anymore. I know plenty of people who have had it recently and aren't still testing positive.

The Chinese do not trust the rapid antigen test, and have stipulated PCR test only for purposes of identifying who has COVID, in order to be admitted into the country and participate in the Games. Unless a higher power feels they can step in and change this, it is what it is. Given the athlete numbers who have had COVID already (and recovered, and not contagious anymore), it's likely that the Chinese dragnet will catch at least a few of these athletes. Then we will see what their country federation, the international sports federation, and the Chinese will do.

 

[moonvine]

The Chinese do not trust the rapid antigen test, and have stipulated PCR test only for purposes of identifying who has COVID, in order to be admitted into the country and participate in the Games. Unless a higher power feels they can step in and change this, it is what it is. Given the athlete numbers who have had COVID already (and recovered, and not contagious anymore), it's likely that the Chinese dragnet will catch at least a few of these athletes. Then we will see what their country federation, the international sports federation, and the Chinese will do.

I mean if the tests really can pick up dead virus after months Ashley C-G could test positive, or any number of other athletes who may have had Covid previously asymptomatically, to include the top medal contenders. This Olympics may be awarding medals not to the best athletes, but to the athletes who avoided Covid. It is madness.

 

[madraykin]

I mean if the tests really can pick up dead virus after months Ashley C-G could test positive, or any number of other athletes who may have had Covid previously asymptomatically, to include the top medal contenders. This Olympics may be awarding medals not to the best athletes, but to the athletes who avoided Covid. It is madness.

They can but most people will test negative with around 10 days of their positive test so it's not as major a problem as it can seem.