Knierim and Frazier withdraw due to Covid

[gold12345]

If the head-to-head is that much in favour of S-K/F, then yeah maybe if C/J place 2nd at Nationals, it's an easier decision for the USFS. But if C/J win, there should be a skateoff with C-G/L. TBH though, I think the fairest thing is still a skate-off with the silver medalists because both C/J and C-G/L are viable options and depending on how they skate they could have actually both beaten S-K/F.

There were far greater odds of K/F winning this Nationals than losing it. Nationals is now a depleted field, and it's possible that C/J and C-G/L would've felt more pressure here had the top pair actually been competing. I don't see it telling us much about how these pairs do internationally.

K/F are undefeated against C/J and C/L. They've been the highest US finisher over and over again, and even their one lower score (their only one ever) was similar to what C-G/L scored at Skate Canada. Golden Spin was a good example of an event sometimes being flukey- which is why the Olympic team is based on showing consistent scoring/ability over a period of time rather than just one day at Nationals. K/F are the only pair that has separated themselves internationally this season with several 200+ scores (and they've demonstrated they can easily score 200+ with mistakes, so they are low-risk selection with great potential). They also have the record high score for a US pair, 212. C-G/L's best score is 10 points lower (and that was way above anything else they've scored, whereas K/F have had a more consistent output). C/J have never broken 200.

You sound like you'd want everything to be based on Nationals (and an unlucky positive test). Everyone's entitled to an opinion of course. But if you read the US's long Selection Procedure document, it's not like that at all. International competition matters. And the skaters have known for a long time what the Selection Procedures are and what they would need to do to get into a high Priority Grouping. And K/F did that.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

There were far greater odds of K/F winning this Nationals than losing it. Nationals is now a depleted field, and it's possible that C/J and C-G/L would've felt more pressure here had the top pair actually been competing. I don't see it telling us much about how these pairs do internationally.

K/F are undefeated against C/J and C/L. They've been the highest US finisher over and over again, and even their one lower score (their only one ever) was similar to what C-G/L scored at Skate Canada. Golden Spin was a good example of an event sometimes being flukey- which is why the Olympic team is based on showing consistent scoring/ability over a period of time rather than just one day at Nationals. K/F are the only pair that has separated themselves internationally this season with several 200+ scores (and they've demonstrated they can easily score 200+ with mistakes, so they are low-risk selection with great potential). They also have the record high score for a US pair, 212. C-G/L's best score is 10 points lower (and that was way above anything else they've scored, whereas K/F have had a more consistent output). C/J have never broken 200.

You sound like you'd want everything to be based on Nationals (and an unlucky positive test). Everyone's entitled to an opinion of course. But if you read the US's long Selection Procedure document, it's not like that at all. International competition matters. And the skaters have known for a long time what the Selection Procedures are and what they would need to do to get into a high Priority Grouping. And K/F did that.

I’m not saying it should be based off Nationals. I’m saying it should be a skate off between S/K and the second place team from Nationals. Whoever beats the other fair and square gets to go. At least it will show who the best pair is at this point in time which is most critical for getting the best Olympic performances.

 

[gold12345]

I’m not saying it should be based off Nationals. I’m saying it should be a skate off between S/K and the second place team from Nationals. Whoever beats the other fair and square gets to go. At least it will show who the best pair is at this point in time which is most critical for getting the best Olympic performances.

I see. But again, that would base the selection on just one domestic type competition (and not even a competition, a skate off). Nathan Chen could lose a skate off to Vincent Zhou-- what would it mean? You'd still send Nathan to the Olympics over Vincent every time. The best way to predict how these skaters will score internationally at the Olympics/Worlds is to look at how they've scored internationally. K/F have never lost to C/J, it's not really been close either. A skate off would just add unnecessary stress. There's not going to be some magical moment overnight where C/J are going to jump well in international competition. Right now their hit ratio is extremely low. Even the jump she landed here at Nationals in what they called their best SP ever was wobbly and held on and maybe a quarter short.

Now if C-G/L end up 2nd, maybe the choice isn't quite as much of a no-brainer, but if they can't even beat C/J at Nationals (who again, have never beat K/F), that would indicate a shortcoming of some sort ( pair element issues and/or underrotations). And it would still make sense to send K/F, especially since USFS's own selection procedures say they've already met the criteria.

I don't know if they'd ever do a skate off while at the Olympics for the Team Event, or if they'd just monitor the skaters in practice. Aside from scoring history, I'm convinced K/F are our best choice, assuming he's recovered and ready to go. They have the best set of elements overall, they get our best PCS, etc. Unless he's not well, they are our best pair.

 

[moonvine]

They can but most people will test negative with around 10 days of their positive test so it's not as major a problem as it can seem.

Unless you’re not part of “most people.”

 

[moonvine]

I’m not saying it should be based off Nationals. I’m saying it should be a skate off between S/K and the second place team from Nationals. Whoever beats the other fair and square gets to go. At least it will show who the best pair is at this point in time which is most critical for getting the best Olympic performances.

The USFS has established criteria for Olympic team selection. What is wrong with following that criteria? I’d be hopping mad if I was an athlete and they announced this criteria and then went “Oh hold up we were just kidding.” Literally half the pairs here will medal, more if God forbid there are more positive cases.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

The USFS has established criteria for Olympic team selection. What is wrong with following that criteria? I’d be hopping mad if I was an athlete and they announced this criteria and then went “Oh hold up we were just kidding.” Literally half the pairs here will medal, more if God forbid there are more positive cases.

I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with the criteria and I agree Nationals should be the be all end all. But I think organizing a skate off when it’s neck and neck is a fair thing to do. Especially if the top 2 teams at Nationals go clean because if S/K came 3rd at Nationals they would have likely been off the Olympic team. If both teams bombed then yeah sure, a case can be made that they’re not better than S-K/F at this point.

I also think looking at BOW the committee should only go by the past year of head to heads. Because really a skater is only as good as their current season, and a team’s caliber can drop or rise significantly from year to year.

Some say they deserve it, I just think everyone should have to earn it and a skater skipping Nationals is tough to justify giving them one of a limited number of spots. This is different than Liu with 3 spots and the bronze going to someone who can’t compete so it is more cut and dry.

If C/J and C-G/L both go clean tomorrow I really think US fed should consider a skate off with the second place team and S-K/F even though it’s unlikely.

 

[gold12345]

We could keep debating this, but the US is unlikely to do a Skate Off a month before the Olympics. I mean, I'd prefer a Skate Off over denying K/F the opportunity because he got sick, but I really believe K/F have already earned a spot.

I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with the criteria and I agree Nationals should be the be all end all. But I think organizing a skate off when it’s neck and neck is a fair thing to do.

It's not neck and neck. K/F are undefeated against those two pairs. They're the first US pair to ever score in the 200s with regularity. And they can easily do better, which is promising.

This season's scores:

Knierim/Frazier- 212.55, 205.87, 202.97, 201.69, 186.69
Cain/LeDuc- 202.79, 193.00, 189.90, 170.64
Calalang/Johnson- 197.42, 196.85, 196.69, 195.28, 191.89, 180.49
Lu/Mitrofanov- 195.32, 195.20, 190.03, 186.16, 158.81

K/F's scores are so high that they separated themselves into an entirely different group in the Selection Criteria. It would be more fair to say CG/L and C/J are neck-and-neck.

I also think looking at BOW the committee should only go by the past year of head to heads. Because really a skater is only as good as their current season, and a team’s caliber can drop or rise significantly from year to year.

Yes, the selection criteria is mostly based on this current season's international results. K/F are our best pair this season, just like last season. Whether you calculate K/F's Median to include 2021 Worlds nine months ago or not, K/F still easily have the best Median. Actually, their Median is slightly better without including 2021 Worlds because their scores have escalated since then. Their International PB in their first season was 199.31. And they've easily climbed into the 200s this season.

K/F placed ahead of C/J 4 times this season alone, and 6 times in the past 14 months. They beat CG/L nine months ago at Worlds, and 3 times in the past 14 months. CG/L withdrew from a competition this season where they would have gone head-to-head with K/F. K/F skated very well there and scored 205. Their average score this season is considerably higher than CG/L's even if you drop the lowest score (because CG/L had one really rough score of 170). K/F were also our best pair on the GP. They ranked ahead of CG/L based on K/F's 404.66 total vs CG/L's 392.69.

Some say they deserve it, I just think everyone should have to earn it and a skater skipping Nationals is tough to justify giving them one of a limited number of spots. This is different than Liu with 3 spots and the bronze going to someone who can’t compete so it is more cut and dry.

Nationals isn't the be-all-end-all anymore. They didn't "skip" Nationals. They were fully ready to compete and were skating well by all accounts before being forced to WD. Brandon did the right thing by getting tested when he felt sick instead of trying to plow though and compete and get others sick. That should be praised, not punished.

K/F's situation is quite similar to Liu's, in that they've been clear front-runners in their respective disciplines. A spot going to them might be even more justifiable in that they are reigning National Champions, have GP medals, top 7 at last year's Worlds. If Liu gets a spot as expected, K/F qualify for similar reasons. I'd find it extremely hard to justify giving Liu a spot and not K/F, especially given K/F's Priority Group status.

If C/J and C-G/L both go clean tomorrow I really think US fed should consider a skate off with the second place team and S-K/F even though it’s unlikely.

But why would C/J and C/L going clean at a domestic event tomorrow change the fact that K/F are our best international pair? It doesn't. How many times have people overhyped a clean skate at Nationals, only for that pair to never skate like that internationally.The idea of punishing your top pair for coming down with an unavoidable illness makes no sense to me. Why would a country not want its best pair at the Olympics. Alexa is a special talent. She has actual Olympic experience, skating very well in the Team Event. We either use her talent now, or we waste the opportunity. We could keep going back and forth, but fact of the matter is, our Olympic selection criteria document ISN'T based on Nationals. It's based on the entire season. And unless the US's throws their Selection Procedures into the fireplace tomorrow, K/F should be on the team.

 

[gold12345]

Great to see that Brandon is feeling better already. He and Alexa did an interview Friday night (he was isolated in his hotel room). He said he's "on the pathway to recovery" and he feels like the worst of it is over. Medication and rest have been helping. His voice sounded much better; it just sounded like he had nasal congestion like a regular cold. They're both so upset about not getting to compete and defend their title (he called it absolutely devastating, and Alexa said there were many tears shed), but they sounded optimistic and briefly talked about feeling worthy of Olympic selection based on body of work. He said he was focused on getting healthy and getting back to training ASAP. Alexa said she's healthy and fine, and that she really feels for Brandon and just wants him to get well.

 

[Joubabe]

Great to see that Brandon is feeling better already. He and Alexa did an interview Friday night (he was isolated in his hotel room).

Thanks for the update. I’ve been looking for information on Brandon’s condition. Where can I find the interview?

 

[moonvine]

I’m not saying it should be based off Nationals. I’m saying it should be a skate off between S/K and the second place team from Nationals. Whoever beats the other fair and square gets to go. At least it will show who the best pair is at this point in time which is most critical for getting the best Olympic performances.

No. The USFS should follow its own established selection criteria. K/F have beaten all these teams multiple times on the international scene this year. I’m not sure they’ve ever lost to them. If they had lost to them at Nationals they’d still be going as long as they came in top 5 - which barring major illness/injury they would have. There are only 8 teams.

 

[moonvine]

Alexa and Brandon were on Don Lemon last night per IG.

 

[gold12345]

Thanks for the update. I’ve been looking for information on Brandon’s condition. Where can I find the interview?

It was on TV last night on CNN, it doesn't seem like the show is archived anywhere. I was impressed the interviewer knew what Body of Work was haha.

 

[moonvine]

It was on TV last night on CNN, it doesn't seem like the show is archived anywhere. I was impressed the interviewer knew what Body of Work was haha.

It is archived on the CNN app. Don Lemon’s show. The show is 2 hours long. Alexa and Brandon start at 1:44.26. Alexa looks…solemn. Brandon still in isolation at team hotel. Don also mentions Amber and Alyssa though they were not interviewed. Brandon says he’s “on the pathway to recovery” and sounds MUCH better. He also (pre Covid) had asthma and that was bothering him also. Alexa is sad Brandon is isolated but she is “fine, health wise.” She says it’s never the end if you don’t give up. They are petitioning based on BOW. They talk about Christines article about the unmasked people in the hotel. They don’t blame USFS. (That’s ok guys I do for you.). Alexa calls the virus a “demon”. She’s so beautiful. That’s it.

 

[Joubabe]

Thank you for the help. I’ve been trying unsuccessfully to find it on You Tube. I’ll try the CNN app.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Well based on what C/J put out there today, it's pretty cut and dry that S-K/F and C-G/L should be the two pairs going.

My point earlier was that if C/J slayed but happened to come second (like say they got 223 points but only 2nd), then a skate-off between them and S-K/F would have been the fairest (and yes yes, I know there were criteria, I'm just talking about what in my opinion would have been fair). But it's a moot point as there were way too many errors in C/J's FS, and an excellent skate by C-G/L making it pretty cut and dry. One good SP isn't enough to put C/J on par with S-K/F, especially after folks have pointed out their head to heads. C/J's results aren't THAT far off from S-K/F, compared to say the discrepancy between James/Radford and Walsh/Michaud's international results, but it was correct to say that C/J are more on par with C-G/L than S-K/F in general, and C-G/L clearly won over C/J here.

As I said in another thread, now the question is who between S-K/F and C-G/L deserves the team event.

 

[moonvine]

Thank you for the help. I’ve been trying unsuccessfully to find it on You Tube. I’ll try the CNN app.

If I knew how to put it on YouTube I would but I have no idea.

 

[ice_tulip]

Well based on what C/J put out there today, it's pretty cut and dry that S-K/F and C-G/L should be the two pairs going.

My point earlier was that if C/J slayed but happened to come second (like say they got 223 points but only 2nd), then a skate-off between them and S-K/F would have been the fairest (and yes yes, I know there were criteria, I'm just talking about what in my opinion would have been fair). But it's a moot point as there were way too many errors in C/J's FS, and an excellent skate by C-G/L making it pretty cut and dry. One good SP isn't enough to put C/J on par with S-K/F, especially after folks have pointed out their head to heads. C/J's results aren't THAT far off from S-K/F, compared to say the discrepancy between James/Radford and Walsh/Michaud's international results, but it was correct to say that C/J are more on par with C-G/L than S-K/F in general, and C-G/L clearly won over C/J here.

As I said in another thread, now the question is who between S-K/F and C-G/L deserves the team event.

Yes, such a shame that C/J didn't perform better. The instant Calalang doubled their first SBS jump, the suspense was gone: K/F were going to the Olympics. I really wanted to see all the pairs skate brilliantly in the free but instead everyone skated very poorly except for CG/L!

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Yes, such a shame that C/J didn't perform better. The instant Calalang doubled their first SBS jump, the suspense was gone: K/F were going to the Olympics. I really wanted to see all the pairs skate brilliantly in the free but instead everyone skated very poorly except for CG/L!

Indeed but hey silver is wonderful for them and their SP was brilliant! The US teams are in the mix again for GP medals and there was some lovely skating. And that triple twist is .

 

[Yeslekyelnats]

I’m not saying it should be based off Nationals. I’m saying it should be a skate off between S/K and the second place team from Nationals. Whoever beats the other fair and square gets to go. At least it will show who the best pair is at this point in time which is most critical for getting the best Olympic performances.

That makes no sense since if K/F we’re able to skate as long as they got 5th they were going

 

[moonvine]

That makes no sense since if K/F we’re able to skate as long as they got 5th they were going

And 5th out of 8 pairs. None of whom have ever beaten K/F to my knowledge.