US Olympic Team Announced

[Mista Ekko]

Why bring him over where? You lost me with that question.

To Nationals during a very risky time with Covid,
Where he apparently couldn't qualify for anything anyways

 

[lariko]

never landed a clean Quad!! look at his protocols. UR or UR/Downgrade + fall

No, the 2-footed one in France was only negative GoE, no UR, so one quad it is, generously. But wait for it... it's any year now. Like I said, hopefully, Olympics 2022, not 2026. I mean, for a while, it was between him and Khormykh. Now, it's just him.

Seriously, maybe 4T? Find a jumping coach? Eat red meat? Pre-rotate?

If his triples are so perfect, why is there no quad? Not enough springiness? Biomechanics? Psychological aspect? Endurance? Old injury? Like, why can't he jump 4T?

 

[kan01]

never landed a clean Quad!! look at his protocols. UR or UR/Downgrade + fall

Look at his protocols from IDF 2021. No UR or q. That means fully rotated.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

In the interest of fairness, Brown has a quad. One quad. The second is pending. I hope he lands it in Olympics, because if he falls again, it will be anticlimactic. Why is he always trying 4S anyway, not 4T?

Brown does not have a consistent quad.

He had a really good attempt (albeit two-footed) earlier this year. That would be enough to keep him in the mix. But even a decent quad attempt for him is a flash in the pan it seems.

Problem is, his SP has no quad so he has to do it perfectly. But he has erred (q at best, otherwise stepout or hand down) in his SP 3A all three internationals this season. If he replicates Nationals, great, but he often does his best skating at Nationals. There was a while though when his 3A was super solid and he needs to get back to that. Unlike Sochi, I don't think a lack of a quad and a poor triple axel will be enough to nab him a spot in the final flight

 

[moonvine]

To Nationals during a very risky time with Covid,
Where he apparently couldn't qualify for anything anyways

I don’t know why Ilia and his team chose to skate at nationals this year, whereas last year he WD.

I would tend to think it’s because the National championship determines the National champion and envelope funding for next year.

Ilya was also named to the world team based on his performance. That is great for a first year senior.

 

[JustSomeGuy]

But it makes more sense to put up Vincent. The lowest One can get is fifth in the finals. and reasonably Keenan whoever the second Japanese man is, Kolyoda, can all beat him if they skate well.

They might as well go for broke with Vincent. I would argue why not send Ilia he might put up a huge TES and may get decent PCs.

Sorry to answer this almost 24 hours on, but the 'final' of the team event is the FP, where Brown arguably could end up in fifth even with a good skate; in the SP, the lowest place could be 10th, and honestly that could be fatal to any medal chances. The team event hinges much more on the SP than the FP, just due to the format. If Chen wants to skate then Chen will skate, that's pretty much a given, but if I were in USFS's shoes I'd field Brown for the SP (potential 1st in SP, highly unlikely to bomb) and Zhou (actually Malinin, as much as I love Zhou, but that decision was made) for the FP, since if he does bomb he can't be worse than 5th, at that point it's unlikely that it would take them off of the podium, he wouldn't be doing much worse then Brown would in that portion anyway, and it's the best chance USFS have for all three of their men leaving Beijing with a medal.

 

[el henry]

To Nationals during a very risky time with Covid,
Where he apparently couldn't qualify for anything anyways

Nationals IS NOT JUST FOR OLYMPIC SELECTION.

And it was Ilia's choice to attend; he could have withdrawn. Which would have been a mistake given what an impression he made. It was a hardly a bad Nats for him, whether he was selected for the Olympics or not.

 

[lariko]

Brown does not have a consistent quad.

He had a really good attempt (albeit two-footed) earlier this year. That would be enough to keep him in the mix. But even a decent quad attempt for him is a flash in the pan it seems.

Problem is, his SP has no quad so he has to do it perfectly. But he has erred (q at best, otherwise stepout or hand down) in his SP 3A all three internationals this season. If he replicates Nationals, great, but he often does his best skating at Nationals. There was a while though when his 3A was super solid and he needs to get back to that. Unlike Sochi, I don't think a lack of a quad and a poor triple axel will be enough to nab him a spot in the final flight

I know all that, I am just trying to find out why he is pounding 4S, like it's the only quad there is, when everyone else starts with 4T? Is there some specific reason behind his fidelity to it? I mean, there has to be a way to fix this problem? What did he try over the years? When did he even start on it? Did he actually do this very thing since 2014? Come out and go for 4S at the start of his free?

 

[el henry]

I know all that, I am just trying to find out why he is pounding 4S, like it's the only quad there is, when everyone else starts with 4T? Is there some specific reason behind his fidelity to it? I mean, there has to be a way to fix this problem?

Do you really want to know?

He trained the 4T and the 4S. His 4S was considered better by Tracy and Brian. Other skaters start with the 4S as well. Where do you get your statement that "everyone else starts with a 4T"?

 

[lariko]

Do you really want to know?

He trained the 4T and the 4S. His 4S was considered better by Tracy and Brian. Other skaters start with the 4S as well. Where do you get your statement that "everyone else starts with a 4T"?

Watching juniors. So, how long had this been going on? I think, I have seen maybe 3 last years or so.

 

[readernick]

Actually I would also like to see others try skating Jason's Sinnerman programme. We might be pleasantly surprised.
I'm not saying Jason is not special but sometimes I think the prevalent narrative around him creates a bias against appreciating the SS/artistry/spins of other skaters.
Because I was a fan of Patrick Chan, Daisuke Takahashi etc., for a long time I didn't really get Jason (only until sometime after he moved to Orser). Fast forward a few years and the narrative is repeating itself. Jason may well be 'once in a generation', but skating generations are measured in 4-year intervals. In fact considering men's skating careers usually exceed 4 years, the next person to fill this niche (the same niche occupied by Cranston, Curry and others years back) is probably already competing, but not fully developed/recognised yet.

I've thought about this and I can't really imagine any current internationally known Senior skater pulling it off. ( I'm not saying that there aren't other artistic skaters, there certainly are ( and Jason isn't even my personal favorite) but not ones who I see this style of movement working for) . I love Alvin Ailey's unique, eclectic dance style and so I love Sinnerman. It's the primary reason I'm happy Jason going to the Olympics. It's art, culture, and athletes perfectly melded. Some of the artistic juniors might well be able to do it in a few years but I can't see them doing it now. It takes too much maturity and emotion. Among retired skaters, I think Takahashi could do this program justice but it would look a bit different although equally beautiful. Also, for some reason I could see Kurt Browning understanding the music and style of movement even though he doesn't have Jason's flexibility. I wonder who you think among current, future and former skating stars who could skate to that music well and what other posters think? This isn't really related to the thread but it is interesting to me.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I have no idea who they will pick for the TE and even as a Jason fan I actually don’t really care much who’s chosen. But I think the issue isn’t so much that Vincent isn’t capable of scoring super high in both segments (we know he is) but the fact that he’s been very nervy in his last two events, on top of scoring only 70 at Worlds last spring and failing to make the FS. I’m not trying to be mean in saying this, but the fact his nerves impacted him in the FS at NHK and Nats doesn’t mean it won’t be in the SP next time. No guarantees either way, but if I’m strategizing for the TE that’s certainly something I’d consider for the SP especially.

Agreed that he's been nervy in the FS in his past two comps, but Jason has yet to cleanly do a 3A in the SP and doesn't have one quad let alone two.

If US wants to maximize points and Chen is only doing one segment, it really makes sense for them to go with Zhou. He's had 4 clean SPs (and gets better each time out), and his FS average is higher than Brown's. Yes, Zhou's worst FS (161.18 at NHK) is worst than Jason's 165.55 at SC, but Zhou's other two free skates got 198.13 and 186.68 while Brown's were 170.13 and 174.81, which would not be enough to hold off a solid Kolyada and certainly not enough to challenge the Japanese.

I'm also a bit unsure as to why Zhou doesn't incorporate the quad flip in his SP. It's been one of his most reliable quads in the FS, and gains more points than his 4S which often gets a 'q' on it. I'm betting for the Olympics he'll go for broke with 4Z and 4F, and he's more apt to land them now than he did in 2018.

 

[el henry]

Watching juniors. So, how long had this been going on? I think, I have seen maybe 3 last years or so.

Other skaters training the 4S first or Jason training the 4S? I'm confused.

Jason has been training quads since like, forever.

Jason did indeed start with a 4T, you are right it is more traditional. He rotated and landed a 4T in Skate America when he was with Kori, I forget the year, but it was called UR. Then he migrated to 4S. Tracy and Brian like it better.

If you really want to know, I can find the articles.

But if it's just to say that Jason is going to land a quad "any day now", something no fan of Jason that I know has ever said, then I'm not sure it would be worthwhile.

 

[kan01]

Do you really want to know?

He trained the 4T and the 4S. His 4S was considered better by Tracy and Brian. Other skaters start with the 4S as well. Where do you get your statement that "everyone else starts with a 4T"?

He was attempting 4T, but the 4S got much more successful in practice so he switched to attempting 4S at Worlds 2021 where everyone was expecting him to try 4T as per usual. And he saw improvement with it ever since.

 

[Mista Ekko]

Nationals IS NOT JUST FOR OLYMPIC SELECTION.

And it was Ilia's choice to attend; he could have withdrawn. Which would have been a mistake given what an impression he made. It was a hardly a bad Nats for him, whether he was selected for the Olympics or not.

I still have a problem with the believability of claims by people here that it was obvious in advance due to criteria
that he wouldn't be selected anyways no matter what heading into the event

Then why were people who know a thing or two even debating about this after the event,
Or why weren't commentators or pundits mentioning that as a fact beforehand?
It must've been an option to send him, No?

 

[lariko]

Okay, so 4S attempts went on since 2021, and before that he was trying 4T? Well, I hope he lands 4S in Olympics then, and in a legit way.

 

[Mista Ekko]

Winning the silver medal put Ilya in Priority Group 3, the same group Jason was in. Had Ilya won the gold medal Ilya would still have been in priority group 3.

Further filtering criteria are as follows:

Placement at 2021 World Championships.

Benchmark is top 10.

Jason meets this criteria (7th at Worlds). Ilya does not.

They both made their respective GP/JGP finals. Both were cancelled. Draw.

Both had 2 GP events plus one challenger. Jason finished with a score in the top 10 in all 3. Ilya had one score in top 15. Two scores not top 15. Advantage Jason.

Median consistency - Jason top 10. Ilya not top 15

Trending scores - Ilya wins this one. His scores trended upward from the Challenger to Nationals.

Final criteria (tiebreaker) is comparison of 2020 and 2021 US Nationals.

Jason 2021 US Nationals - 3rd Ilya WD

2022 US Nationals. Jason 4th. Ilya 2nd. Advantage Jason

It’s very clear that at the time these criteria were approved, USFS was favoring consistency and that’s what swung the pendulum very heavily in Jason’s favor.

Not sure what you mean by “someone like Malinin.”

From where I sit, that’s a skater with one very good performance. And no, using this criteria there is no way for such a skater to make the team.

I do get a kick out of the way you write your posts

If I was copying it down to use as subtitles you would be making things very easy for me

 

[lurkerghost1]

The problem with the criteria is very simple: an Olympic medal-worthy performance at any random international event matters MORE than an Olympic medal-worthy performance at nationals, aka nationals are the least important event of the year. Sure, actually winning a world 2021 or GPF 2022 medal should have been enough to put you in priority group 2, I have no problem with that.

But Vincent got into priority group 2 using one potential top-3 score (Skate America). Without that performance, he would be in priority group 3 or 4. What this means essentially is Vincent's 1 medal-worthy performance in the last year (Skate America) is more important than Malinin's 1 medal-worthy performance (US Nats). Worse, Vincent could have made that same score at a random challenger, and USFS would still have put him in group 2. So what USFS is really saying is that Ondrej Nepela Trophy or whatever matters more to them than their own nationals.

In the future if they keep this priority group ranking it really should be World or GPF only for the "1 potential score" criteria. No GPs or challengers for that, but they can count for the "consistency" criteria. Maybe if you get medal-worthy scores at 2 GPs or challengers that should count but one is too little and once again makes nationals effectively irrelevant. Or not, we all know after all that USFS never pays attention to nationals anyway.

 

[readernick]

I still have a problem with the believability of claims by people here that it was obvious in advance due to criteria
that he wouldn't be selected anyways no matter what heading into the event

Then why were people who know a thing or two even debating about this after the event,
Or why weren't commentators or pundits mentioning that as a fact beforehand?
It must've been an option to send him, No?

I mean read the US men's thread and you can see people were very very certain about who the team would be prior to Nationals.

Of course, the USFS could have sent him. Really, they can make any decision they want. His Nationals performance was incredible and would have been a good case. But, it would have meant selectively ignoring some of the criteria that they themselves published. I don't think it would have been a wrong decision but it would have been unfair. ( In that , at least in my view, not following criteria you publish is unfair to those who tried their hardest to meet that criteria believing you would use it to decide on the team).

 

[Mista Ekko]

I mean read the US men's thread and you can see people were very very certain about who the team would be prior to Nationals.

Of course, the USFS could have sent him. Really, they can make any decision they want. His Nationals performance was incredible and would have been a good case. But, it would have meant selectively ignoring some of the criteria that they themselves published. I don't think it would have been a wrong decision but it would have been unfair. ( In that , at least in my view, not following criteria you publish is unfair to those who tried their hardest to meet that criteria believing you would use it to decide on the team).

I guess that's fair, But I think the content of this criteria and the timing of it's publishing are very
suspect when you could already kinda see where the winds were blowing for some specific people,
And which events were lined up.