How much is a triple Axel really worth?

[Mathman]

Answer: 5.80 points.

The base value of a triple Axel is 7.5 points, with the possibility of earning a little more by getting a positive GOE or a second half bonus.

But you can also fall, underrotate, and/or make myriad other errors that leave you with a total score of a lot less. When the smoke clears, what is the average number of points that actually go up on the scoreboard?

I just computed this for all the different jumps in the Senior Grand Prix circuit, including the final. A total of 5 triple Axels were attempted, with scores ranging from 7.50 to 0.00, with an average of 5.8.

Here are the average number of points earned by the other triple jumps, plus double Axel. (N = the total number of jumps of each type attempted, including pops that ended up scored as doubles and singles.)

3Lz: base value 6.0. N = 68. Actual average value in competition = 2.89.

3F: base value 5.5. N = 57. Actual average value in competition = 2.59.

3Lo: base value 5.0. N = 47. Actual average value in competition = 3.31.

3S: base value 4.5. N = 59. Actual average value in competition = 3.21.

3T: base value 4.0. N = 45. Actual average value in competition = 2.21.

2A: base value 3.5. N = 62. Actual average in competition = 3.41.

Bottom line – if you want to win, load up your program with double Axels, loops and Salchows! :yes:

 

[Bennett]

Interesting! Are they all men and ladies?

I actually think that 3A and a quad should be much higher in their base values because they are so much more difficult. Very few ladies in history have ever landed 3A whereas numerous ladies have consistently landed 3Lz. I don't understand why there are only 1.5 point difference between them. Likewise, few men land a quad whereas numerous men have a consistent 3A. I think that these difficult jumps deserve higher values. I have often heard some talks that the base values for these more difficult jumps would increase. But I wonder if they actually will.

 

[Mathman]

These data are for ladies' free skates only.

What I found most interesting is this. The data show that the ladies can actually do a double Axel. That is, the score that they achieved in real life, 3.41, is pretty close to what they were hoping for, 3.50.

But if you look at the Lutz's and flips, in actual competition they are scoring less than half of base value. This means that a whole lot of ladies are attempting Lutz's and flips who can't do them.

Does the CoP encourage this? Or are the low scores on Lutz's and flips the CoP's way of punishing you for jumping into the deep end of the pool when you can't swim?

 

[Bennett]

Bottom line – if you want to win, load up your program with double Axels, loops and Salchows! :yes:

But I would say "if you want to be above average".

 

[Mathman]

But I would say "if you want to be above average".

Quite true! One thing that really stands out when you go through the actual numbers, instead of just looking at the averages, is how incedibly far ahead the very top ladies, Yuna Kim and Mao Asada, are, compared with the rest of the field. Look for Worlds to be a pas de deux, with eveyone else in the chorus.

I have often heard some talks that the base values for these more difficult jumps would increase. But I wonder if they actually will.

I wouldn't be surprised if they do. As far as I have read, there is a lot of support for it, especially by men skaters who can do a quad, and their coaches, etc.

One problem is that for the very top skaters, both men and ladies, the tech is already creeping up higher and higher ahead of the PCS, so raising the values of the biggest tricks would make it even more out of balance.

 

[Bennett]

I wouldn't be surprised if they do [increase the values for 3A and quads]. As far as I have read, there is a lot of support for it, especially by men skaters who can do a quad, and their coaches, etc.

That's nice! I will look forward to that!

 

[hockeyfan228]

One problem is that for the very top skaters, both men and ladies, the tech is already creeping up higher and higher ahead of the PCS, so raising the values of the biggest tricks would make it even more out of balance.

That's not a problem -- it's an opportunity: the trade-off for raising the base scores for the harder jumps could be to raise the weighting for PCS. There's no reason why the PCS factor for Ladies' could go to 1/2, if the technical base is creeping up.

Under the 10 system, gynmastics did the opposite: they lowered the base scores for elements that had become more prevalent and upped what it took to start with, for example, a 9.8.

 

[BelleFilleYuna]

Interesting!!

btw you really live up to your user-name:agree:

 

[merrybari]

That's nice! I will look forward to that!

Me Too! Greater reward for greater difficulty - and greater risk - seems like the way to go.

Didn't I hear that the Russian federation is awarding bonus points for those who successfully compete a quad? I also remember reading as a companion to that they hoped that by doing so they would send a message to the ISU to do something about raising the base value.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

So what do we get at the end of the evening? A best skater that night? or a best planner of programs that night?

Joe

 

[BravesSkateFan]

I wonder how much of an impact the wrong edge deductions are having on the lutz and flip scores. If we took those jumps and added in the points lost for wrong edge what would the difference be? I'd have to think that its fairly significant.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I wonder how much of an impact the wrong edge deductions are having on the lutz and flip scores. If we took those jumps and added in the points lost for wrong edge what would the difference be? I'd have to think that its fairly significant.

The penalties for wrong edge takeoffs are quite minimal (only -1 in the GoEs) and it is up to the judges to act on the Tech Asst call. Do they in all cases because one argument could be that the rest of the jump was so pretty that it negated the penalty? The penalty is not automatic like it is for a Fall. The Flutzers really have nothing to worry about.

Joe

 

[gkelly]

Sometimes you have jumps that are quite good in every aspect except the takeoff edge, so the wrong edge penalty can cause them to be scored as -1 when otherwise they would have earned +1 . . . in which case it ends up being a 2-point penalty (for triples).

Or if the takeoff is really blatantly bad it might lead to -2 or in theory even -3 GOE on its own without any other significant errors.

But yeah, most of the time the edge call will be the difference between -1 and 0.

 

[Bennett]

Didn't I hear that the Russian federation is awarding bonus points for those who successfully compete a quad? I also remember reading as a companion to that they hoped that by doing so they would send a message to the ISU to do something about raising the base value.

Wow how interesting! Yeah, but it makes much more sense and clearer than unreasonably inflating PCS.
I also recall Fumie's coach (Misin?) complaining the low value for a quad.

 

[Mathman]

Quads (men) and triple Axels (women) already have a built in bonus beyond their point values. Namely, they solve all your Zayak problems and free up the rest of the program to put in as many triples as you want.

For instance, if a man has neither a quad nor a 3A, the most he can do is 7 triples in his 8 jumping passes, even if he does a triple/triple/triple.

If you have a 4T and a 3A you can do 4T, 3A, 3Lz, 3Lz+3T, 3F, 3F+3Lo, 3S+2T+2Lo, 2A -- easy does it -- 9 jumps with two or more revolutions, even without a quad combo or 3A combo.

 

[Bennett]

Quads (men) and triple Axels (women) already have a built in bonus beyond their point values. Namely, they solve all your Zayak problems and free up the rest of the program to put in as many triples as you want.

For instance, if a man has neither a qaud nor a 3A, the most he can do is 7 triples in his 8 jumping passes, even if he does a triple/triple/triple.

If you have a 4T and a 3A you can do 4T, 3A, 3Lz, 3Lz+3T, 3F, 3F+3Lo, 3S+2T+2Lo, 2A -- easy does it -- 9 jumps with two or more revolutions, even without a quad combo or 3A combo.

How about for a lady with 3A? Sorry I am not really good at this rule.

 

[merrybari]

Can I back up here just a bit and ask for a brief refresher on the Zayak rule? I seem to be forgetting something here. Thanks.

 

[Tinymavy15]

yeah, but even with + GOE, a 3 axel is still worth more (even a sloppy one) than a 2.

 

[Mathman]

Can I back up here just a bit and ask for a brief refresher on the Zayak rule? I seem to be forgetting something here. Thanks.

I'm not an expert, but it's something like this. You can repeat only two different triple jumps, and when you do, one of them must be in combination.

So if you are a lady and you don't have a triple Axel, then the most you can do in your 7 jumping passes is 7 triples.

For instance, you could try to rack up the points by going 3Lz+3T, 3Lz, 3F+3Lo, 3F in your first four jumping passes.

But now you are maxed out. You have already repeated two jumps, the Lutz and the flip. So you can't do another Lutz or flip, plus, you can't do another loop or toe either.

So the best you can do with your last three passes is 3S, 2A+2Lo+2Lo, 2A. Seven triple jumps in all. (Still, that's a HUGE program, LOL. Not even Yu-na Kim can do all that! )

How about for a lady with 3A? Sorry I am not really good at this rule.

Now you're talking, LOL. A lady with a triple Axel can do 8 triples.

3A, 3Lz, 3Lz+3T, 3F, 3F+2T, 3Lo, 3S.

8 triples in 7 passes.

Plus, this skater has the possibiltiy of doing even better:

3A, 3A+2T, 3Lz, 3Lz+3T, 3F+3Lo, 3S, 2A.

(But not even Mao Asada can do that! )

For men, the advantage of a quad is that it counts as a different jump than the corresponding triple. So for instance you could do two quad toes and one or two triple toes, and that would be OK.

If you could do both a quad toe and a quad Salchow (Joubert did this at Cup of Russa last year), then the sky is the limit.

4S, 4T, 4T+3T, 3A, 3A+3Lo, 3Lz, 3F, 3S

TEN jumps of three or more rotations in eight jumping passes.

(But not even Plushenko... )

 

[Bennett]

But I feel that it's a bit different from earning higher values from 3A and a quad. It's like an indirect effect, regardless of the success in 3A or a quad.