... If you only look at their last 2 events. If you look at their last 5 events and especially their last 10 events, Caroline stands out. The hype about Rachael is very similar to that of Ashley prior to 4CC.
Caroline's results were uneven all last season. She didn't win a single event, finishing 2nd and 3rd in her GPs and 4th in the GPF, 4th at Nationals, and 2nd at JW. She got dinged for flutzing and urs in many if not all her events.
When Caroline is "on" and she manages to completely rotate her jumps AND skate a clean FS, she is capable of beating Rachael, but the plain fact is that in her two head-to-head meetings with Rachael this season, Rachael came out on top.
Rachael has finished either 1st or 2nd in all her events since March 2007, when she won the Challenge Cup (142.46). She won gold (154.65) and silver (130.85)in her two JGP events, silver in the JGPF (159.66), silver at Nationals (188.73), and gold at JW (172.19). Although the second jump on her 3/3 has been sometimes downgraded, it wasn't in her last 3 competitions, and she has been dinged for flutzing only twice in all her events this season. She completed a clean FS in all three of her last performances, a rare occurrence for any skater.
Compare that to Ashley's career over the past two seasons:
2006-2007: 2 JGP event golds (134.95, 133.98), 2nd JGPF (142.01), 3rd JW (157.15)
2007-2008: 5th SC (150.06), 3rd TEB (158.63), 3rd Nationals (188.56), 8th 4CC (152.46), 16th Worlds (137.40).
Ashley never got scores as high as Rachael in her JGP year, and she seemed to peak at Nationals this year, then fell off badly, while Rachael earned a new Seasons Best at JW after her silver medal at Nationals.
Of Rachael, Caroline, Mirai and Ashley, Rachael is by far the most consistent. Her one below-par result, the JGP in Germany, may have been because she had competed in a cheesefest in Japan the weekend before JGP GER. She had to have been totally jet-lagged at that competition.