2025-26 Grand Prix Assignments predictions?

[TontoK]

If I were advising C/Pom I'd have them go to Skate America and also go to whatever GP the Brits take.

The first to continue to promote themselves in their home country, and the second to take dead aim at the first beatable team ahead of them. I share your view that the Brits are vulnerable world bronze medalists. Of course, If I'm advising the Italians, I'd tell them to take dead aim at the Brits both times... and that would lock out C/Pom from that option so who knows where all this will land.

I suspect that for placements 4-down that the unspoken agreements that hold for the Top 3 don't apply.

 

[rabidline]

Here is who is guaranteed two GP assignments based on Worlds placements:

	Men	Women	Pairs	Ice Dance
Seeded (1-3)	Ilia Malinin (USA) Mikhail Shaidorov (KAZ) Yuma Kagiyama (JPN)	Alysa Liu (USA) Kaori Sakamoto (JPN) Mone Chiba (JPN)	Miura/Kihara (JPN) Hase/Volodin (GER) Conti/Macii (ITA)	Chock/Bates (USA) Gilles/Poirier (CAN) Fear/Gibson (GBR)
Seeded (4-6)	Adam Siao Him Fa (FRA) Kevin Aymoz (FRA) Shun Sato (JPN)	Isabeau Levito (USA) Amber Glenn (USA) Wakaba Higuchi (JPN)	Metelkina/Berulava (GEO) Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps (CAN) Efimova/Mitrofanov (USA)	Guignard/Fabbri (ITA) Carreira/Ponomarenko (USA) Smart/Dieck (ESP)

My predictions for singles seed allocation:

Men:
GP France: Ilia Malinin, Adam Siao Him Fa
Cup of China: Mikhail Shaidorov, Shun Sato
Skate Canada: Yuma Kagiyama, Kevin Aymoz
NHK Trophy: Yuma Kagiyama, Shun Sato
Skate America: Ilia Malinin, Kevin Aymoz
GP Finland: Mikhail Shaidorov, Adam Siao Him Fa

Thoughts:
- Ilia is crazy enough to have a direct head-to-head early with Adam, and even if he loses then, he'll have Skate America to bounce back. If he wins, great ego boost: beat the European favorite on his own turf (preferably by as many points as possible).
- Also why I think Ilia will choose GP France: it will box out Mikhail and Yuma, making 1 of them go back-to-back, and the other getting last GP.
- Mikhail historically did well at COC, and my gut says he's going for Finland because his result can set up the final line up at GPF, and also make Yuma go back-to-back with a time difference
- Yuma left with SC and NHK: NHK is mandatory and as far as SC goes, at least it's where Lori Nichol is based? I can see JSF pushing for Yuma to get COC just because its timezone is Japan-friendly and TV Asahi (Japan rights holder for GP series) want to broadcast it live to build up to GPF (which is in Japan). In that case, Yuma and Mikhail will switch COC and Skate Canada.

Women:
GP France: Alysa Liu, Amber Glenn
Cup of China: Kaori Sakamoto, Wakaba Higuchi
Skate Canada: Mone Chiba, Isabeau Levito
NHK Trophy: Kaori Sakamoto, Wakaba Higuchi
Skate America: Alysa Liu, Amber Glenn
GP Finland: Mone Chiba, Isabeau Levito

Thoughts:
- Alysa is not going to China. It's either GP France or Skate Canada, but I imagine she would take an earlier start so she can take earlier feedback and work on things.
- I ended up having the same seed pair for each GP (Alysa-Amber, Kaori-Wakaba, Mone-Isabeau). Is it a good strategy to aim for a 1-2 finish in the GPs where both Japanese and both Americans go and box out other competitors from GPF?
- Alysa & Amber is a stronger pair than Alysa & Isabeau, when Amber's 3A is clicking.
- Mone and Isabeau cancels each other out in terms of jump rotations, so they're a perfect competitive match for each other.

 

[saine]

These skaters seem pretty loyal. I don't know about Canada, but in the US Championships, they're introduced as hailing from the Such-and-Such Figure Skating Club - their "home" club where they learned to skate. I do know that in Canada, their provincial flags are displayed on the leaderboards (at least I think that's what it is). It's a little shout-out to the home crew.

They do add the club they represent for Canada too, which is usually based in the provincial section they represent. For example, Kaiya Ruiter represents Alberta/Northwest Territories/Nunavut and Calalta FSC. But she now trains at the Cricket Club in Ontario.

 

[NanaPat]

It also seems to me that a national federation sometimes outsmarts itself iwhen it starts playing the game of, well we don;t want to send Jason brown to NHK because he might get beaten by Yuma Kaigiyama and knocked out of the final, so we'll dend him to Finland instead and hope that the competition won't be as fierce. Or when they say, we don't want to send two Americans to the same event because they might knock each other out. Is it better to send them to two separate events and have them knocked out by skaters from other countries instead?

This might be true if the federation had any control over where its skaters go. The federations get to pick for 4CC, Worlds, and maybe even Challengers and "Other International Comps", but it's the HOSTS who pick (from the list of eligible skaters) who is skating at their GP competition. Only the seeded skaters (who can be influenced by their federation) have any say in where they skate.

The only way USFS can "send" a US skater to GP Finland is if they convince the Finnish skating federation to pick that skater. Maybe they can do it by promising to invite a Finnish skater who is only guaranteed one GP to Skate America AFTER they've already been chosen for another GP (so that skater gets two assignments).

Most federations do choose their own "top skater" in each discipline to their own GP. The strategy comes in when they can decide whether to invite their next-best skater in the discipline, or let them go elsewhere so you don't put your top skaters against each other; if they go different places, there's a chance they'll both win. It will be interesting to see who USFS invites from among its women single skaters: they have so many really good women right now.

 

[Mathman]

The federations get to pick for 4CC, Worlds, and maybe even Challengers and "Other International Comps", but it's the HOSTS who pick (from the list of eligible skaters) who is skating at their GP competition.

I do not understand the distinction between saying that the National Federation picks the skaters and saying that the host picks the skaters. Who is the "host" of Skate America, or of Skate Canada, if it is not the US or the Canadian Sklatring Federation? Do you mean that the local organizing committee gets to make the pick?

 

[NanaPat]

I do not understand the distinction between saying that the National Federation picks the skaters and saying that the host picks the skaters. Who is the "host" of Skate America, or of Skate Canada, if it is not the US or the Canadian Sklatring Federation? Do you mean that the local organizing committee gets to make the pick?

Yes, the federations are the hosts of their events. But you were talking about whether USFS should "send" Jason Brown to Finland GP, and the Finnish federation is the host of that, and picks the skaters, not USFS. Likewise, USFS can't "send" him to NHK - Japan decides that.

The federations pick the skaters for the competitions they host, but have no formal control over where else their skaters go.

 

[TontoK]

I sort of see a scenario in which six bosses sit around a table and do some horse-trading with some ground rules.

1. Bosses get their top stars for their own events.
2. If a skater gets two assignments, we're going to try not to put them back-to-back with a lot of travel unless the skater has signaled that preference.
3. We're going to be sensible to minimize costs if we can. If a one-spot skater trains in France, they should probably get that GP.
4. We're going to make an effort to level the fields.
Etc, etc.

As @NanaPat mentioned, there's probably some tit-for-tat dealing going on within these negotiations. "You take skater X and we'll take skater Y"

Of course, I don't mean they're literally sitting around a table, but I think they obviously can't determine the fields in isolation either. And while I fuss about federations sometimes (when they deserve it), these people are also professionals. I'm with @Mathman on the scheming part... there may be a small degree of that going on, but I think what they're really focused on is giving everyone a fair shake and booking popular skaters so they can fill their arenas.

Besides, the sportsman in me likes early head-to-head matchups. "I'm not afraid of you. Any time, any place, any event. Let's rumble."

 

[el henry]

Kévin at least intends to ask for Skate America (given his history of good skates as well he ought) and although he would ideally like NHK, he wants to be strategic and the Japanese have many good men skaters.

Not related to the thread, I thought the interview overall was well worth the time. Kévin interviews like he skates, honest and forthcoming. If you normally complain about "canned answers", you may like this one.

Kevin Aymoz : "Je vais continuer au moins un ou deux ans après les JO"

Kevin Aymoz a obtenu une très belle cinquième place aux championnats du monde. Rencontre après ses performances.

www.skate-info-glace.com

ETA: and, as the headline says, he intends to continue after the Olympics. There is an English translation provided by the website.

 

[TontoK]

Kévin at least intends to ask for Skate America (given his history of good skates as well he ought) and although he would ideally like NHK, he wants to be strategic and the Japanese have many good men skaters.

Not related to the thread, I thought the interview overall was well worth the time. Kévin interviews like he skates, honest and forthcoming. If you normally complain about "canned answers", you may like this one.

Kevin Aymoz : "Je vais continuer au moins un ou deux ans après les JO"

Kevin Aymoz a obtenu une très belle cinquième place aux championnats du monde. Rencontre après ses performances.

www.skate-info-glace.com

ETA: and, as the headline says, he intends to continue after the Olympics. There is an English translation provided by the website.

Interesting, and a note for @dorispulaski and her New Programs thread.

If my translation is correct, Kevin is returning to Bolero for his Olympic season free skate.

 

[Marty McFlip]

Women:
GP France: Alysa Liu, Amber Glenn
Cup of China: Kaori Sakamoto, Wakaba Higuchi
Skate Canada: Mone Chiba, Isabeau Levito
NHK Trophy: Kaori Sakamoto, Wakaba Higuchi
Skate America: Alysa Liu, Amber Glenn
GP Finland: Mone Chiba, Isabeau Levito

Don't you see a strategy to split americans and japaneses favorites to avoid each other. For exemple Kaori and Wakaba are friends, but if they are on the same GP, one of these women can lost precious point by being on the same GP than a favorite. This year, with her top 6, Wakaba has the opportunity to not have too much adversity in her spots, I think it could be a bad idea to put her against another japanese woman (for wakaba's exemple)

 

[TontoK]

Don't you see a strategy to split americans and japaneses favorites to avoid each other. For exemple Kaori and Wakaba are friends, but if they are on the same GP, one of these women can lost precious point by being on the same GP than a favorite. This year, with her top 6, Wakaba has the opportunity to not have too much adversity in her spots, I think it could be a bad idea to put her against another japanese woman (for wakaba's exemple)

Not that I endorse @rabidline predictions, and not that I don't... but in a scenario in which three Japanese women and three American women are guaranteed two spots among the six GP events, there almost certainly has to be overlap, especially taking the organizer's desires into account. I don't mind, for instance, if any of the American women go head-to-head. In fact, I relish the idea. This notion of dodging your chief competitors is sissy, and these women are tough as nails. Let them go at each other. Two second place GP finishes still makes the final, and if any of them can't manage two second place finishes, then perhaps they don't deserve the final... not that I think any of them particularly care about the GP final this year.

 

[rabidline]

Don't you see a strategy to split americans and japaneses favorites to avoid each other. For exemple Kaori and Wakaba are friends, but if they are on the same GP, one of these women can lost precious point by being on the same GP than a favorite. This year, with her top 6, Wakaba has the opportunity to not have too much adversity in her spots, I think it could be a bad idea to put her against another japanese woman (for wakaba's exemple)

I see this strategy but I also raise you a counterpoint strategy: 2 second place finishes placing below the undisputed Japan #1 and the skater to beat for the Olympics and no one else. It's a strategy that's been used to push good skaters into the GPF, especially those who are capable of good skates but is a bit unreliable to win a whole GP on their own. And knowing how judges see Wakaba, I can see judges more comfortable scoring her behind Kaori than to score her as the best skater of the GP outright. And just in case Kaori faltered, Wakaba will be there and in a good position to take over if she can deliver good skates.

(Also it would help Wakaba's position in Japan if during the GP series she only loses to Kaori out of the other Japanese women, as opposed to losing to Mone, Hana, Rino, Rion, Rinka, Ami, since it will reduce her Olympic chances and increase the chances of whoever beats her)

 

[Marty McFlip]

Not that I endorse @rabidline predictions, and not that I don't... but in a scenario in which three Japanese women and three American women are guaranteed two spots among the six GP events, there almost certainly has to be overlap, especially taking the organizer's desires into account. I don't mind, for instance, if any of the American women go head-to-head. In fact, I relish the idea. This notion of dodging your chief competitors is sissy, and these women are tough as nails. Let them go at each other. Two second place GP finishes still makes the final, and if any of them can't manage two second place finishes, then perhaps they don't deserve the final... not that I think any of them particularly care about the GP final this year.

of course they are tough, but at this level, there is no shame to avoid Wakaba to be against Amber or an Isabeau in good condition

 

[TontoK]

of course they are tough, but at this level, there is no shame to avoid Wakaba to be against Amber or an Isabeau in good condition

We'll have to agree to disagree. If you're dodging your competition out of fear of the result, then yes, that's weak. Besides, Wakaba can't face Amber or Isabeau in any GP this season. They're all in the 4-6 group, and will be assigned to different events, where they will all have to face one of the 1-3 group each time.

On dodging your competition: At Lombardia this year, I recall Yuma saying something like he didn't know Ilia would also be there, and he implied that he wouldn't have come if he had known. I knew right then that he wouldn't defeat Ilia this year.

 

[rabidline]

On dodging your competition: At Lombardia this year, I recall Yuma saying something like he didn't know Ilia would also be there, and he implied that he wouldn't have come if he had known. I knew right then that he wouldn't defeat Ilia this year.

Thank you, I noticed this one and I was like... welp.

 

[Bluediamonds09]

Aren't the Russians gonna be mad if they aren't allowed on the GP circuit? What I don't really understand is why they are invited to Olympics, but they chose to keep the GP russian-free. It's like the ISU is trying to play both sides and appease everybody.

 

[Jumping_Bean]

Aren't the Russians gonna be mad if they aren't allowed on the GP circuit? What I don't really understand is why they are invited to Olympics, but they chose to keep the GP russian-free. It's like the ISU is trying to play both sides and appease everybody.

Because the ISU is not in control of the Olympics. The IOC gets the last say, and they say that there has to be a way for neutral athletes from Russia & Belarus to qualify for the Olympics.

Also, the Russians (officials) are mostly no longer mad, closer to resigned. At this point, some of them are halfway begging for the ISU to let Russians compete internationally again.

 

[paulusfr]

Aren't the Russians gonna be mad if they aren't allowed on the GP circuit? What I don't really understand is why they are invited to Olympics, but they chose to keep the GP russian-free. It's like the ISU is trying to play both sides and appease everybody.

Not every country will give Russians a visa nowadays.

 

[4everchan]

not that it is for sure but....

skate Canada just released their marketing for the pre-sale...
On the roaster : Piper and Paul, Madeline, Deanna and Max... and Ilia...

Does that mean that those skaters will be coming to Canada for sure ? no idea.. but as a fan, I'd be pretty pissed off if I were to buy tickets, arrange travel and accommodation and then.. oups.. the world champion is no longer skating there

 

[DemTuppesSeine]

not that it is for sure but....

skate Canada just released their marketing for the pre-sale...
On the roaster : Piper and Paul, Madeline, Deanna and Max... and Ilia...

Does that mean that those skaters will be coming to Canada for sure ? no idea.. but as a fan, I'd be pretty pissed off if I were to buy tickets, arrange travel and accommodation and then.. oups.. the world champion is no longer skating there

I think the Canadian skaters announced will be there. But Ilia...it would be weird to do marketing with him and then he isn't there.