2025 NHK Trophy: General Info and Pregame Chat

[4everchan]

So where do we put the Shibs in our predictions... I was sort of fine with how to deal with the other comeback stories because there was at least footage of elements etc... but with them, there is nothing. Any intel (and no, do not bring up the feud they had... I am aware it happened and my post is to discuss actual skating only)

 

[DemTuppesSeine]

So where do we put the Shibs in our predictions... I was sort of fine with how to deal with the other comeback stories because there was at least footage of elements etc... but with them, there is nothing. Any intel (and no, do not bring up the feud they had... I am aware it happened and my post is to discuss actual skating only)

That's the exact reason they're not in my predictions. Might hurt my scores later but for me it's hard to place them if I don't know what they look like

 

[Ivana]

So where do we put the Shibs in our predictions... I was sort of fine with how to deal with the other comeback stories because there was at least footage of elements etc... but with them, there is nothing. Any intel (and no, do not bring up the feud they had... I am aware it happened and my post is to discuss actual skating only)

They are not in my predictions, I see them somewhere in the middle of the field with reputation scoring (sort of like Sui/Han), but part of me still believes they are not going to show up...

 

[4everchan]

They are not in my predictions, I see them somewhere in the middle of the field with reputation scoring (sort of like Sui/Han), but part of me still believes they are not going to show up...

I have considered not including them either, not because I don't think they won't show up... but because I don't know where to place them. Not including them in top 5 could mean I lose some points, but it could be as little of 5 points if it changes the placement of only one team .

I am not that concerned with my game to be honest, I have not been doing so well on the GP series and we are half way through... but I am curious about what people think here.

 

[saine]

I left them off. It's been seven years since they last competed under a completely different scoring system and rules. Most of the news from them since they announced their comeback has not been about competitions (ie sponsorship posts). Reputation can only get them so far.

 

[4everchan]

I left them off. It's been seven years since they last competed under a completely different scoring system and rules. Most of the news from them since they announced their comeback has not been about competitions (ie sponsorship posts). Reputation can only get them so far.

Yeah. that's the logical way to see it . I agree. However, I don't trust judges to be logical

 

[labgoat]

I am split as I do wonder if they are up to the rule changes. Then I look at their coaching staff and wonder why M Zueva, M. Scali, R. Roca, S. Lambiel would let their names be attached if this was just a vanity project. I am currently considering putting them 6th to solve my own dilemma.

 

[crystalspin]

I know nothing about ice dance but this year has seemed..hmm... so...i put them third! My predictions have been terrible for the GP so far so why not.

 

[Ziotic]

I went with third since this field is a bit weaker.

 

[Andrina]

I guess Shibutani will be third if not second.

If they come back, it means they have support from the Federation. The US federation needs a second ice dance team because Chock and Bates can barely make two dances, so there can't be any talking about them making all four at the Olympics. So I think Shibutani will leave with a medal and even qualify for the GFP.

But then again, I am still keeping in mind that sudden silver for Zingas and Kolesnik. Does this mean that Shibutani are not as good as expected and the US fed urgently needed to build up that second team by overblowing the scores (given that Carreira's chances at the Olympics are approaching zero from a negative side)?

 

[Sai Bon]

Wow, I'd completely forgotten about the Shibutanis. Praying that Michael Parsons has recovered and he and Caroline have a better competition.

 

[lariko]

Samodelkina is still holding her spot. I am curious if she has recovered and will compete

 

[Lamente Ariane]

Personally, I'd put the odds at roughly 60% the Shibs withdraw, 40% they compete but place near the bottom. They've had plenty of time to release more flattering footage of their training/programs than the one that most of us saw. The fact that they haven't says to me that they're not in the shape they want to be, and that's without even getting into how difficult it's going to be for them to compete under different rules, seemingly without the guidance of a proper coach. If all was well with them, they'd be making splashy program announcements/previews and promoting themselves in their usual fashion--hell, Marina would be giving interviews if she was truly involved and believed in their comeback. The radio silence does not inspire confidence.

 

[CelticRose22]

It's interesting that so many have left them out of their predictions. But understandable.

No warm up events after 7 and a half years out is a choice. I mean if they were ready then surely they would have done a senior b or 2 at least. So that has to be a concern.

On the other hand, the depth of this field is weaker compared to other Grand Prix events. And Michael Parsons has been injured. If I was taking part in the prediction contest I would probably place them 4th or 5th.

 

[lariko]

You, guys, are making me nervous. I did really bad on SkCan, so I am trying to do well here, with the only self-indulgence in pipe-dream placement being in men.

 

[labgoat]

Still mulling over the Shibutani's vs everyone's SB in each event.

• what percentage do you feel the Shibs are better/worse
• how much better are a clean G/P in the RD.
• How do the Shibs fare against T/T and G/F

Team	TOT	RD	FD
Fear/Gibson	210.24	84.38	125.86
Guignard/Fabbri	195.98	77.25	118.73
Shibutani/Shibutani (2017 SB)	194.25	79.18	115.26
Taschlerova /Taschler	186.60	76.55	110.05
Green/Parsons	184.18	71.77	112.41
Wolfkostin/Tsarevski	180.20	72.08	110.47
vRensburg/Steffen	180.05	71.73	108.37

 

[labgoat]

You, guys, are making me nervous. I did really bad on SkCan, so I am trying to do well here, with the only self-indulgence in pipe-dream placement being in men.

It is scary - maybe the numbers I just posted will help. I rewatched the key comparisons and am still trying to find a guess that will cost me the least points...

 

[Seven Sisters]

It is scary - maybe the numbers I just posted will help. I rewatched the key comparisons and am still trying to find a guess that will cost me the least points...

Assuming the Shibutanis do show up, I wouldn’t be surprised if they withdrew after the RD, or were otherwise not a factor.

 

[labgoat]

Assuming the Shibutanis do show up, I wouldn’t be surprised if they withdrew after the RD, or were otherwise not a factor.

If they are going to WD - I hope they do it before the event begins.
It would be a lot less stressful for all of us.

 

[lariko]

It is scary - maybe the numbers I just posted will help. I rewatched the key comparisons and am still trying to find a guess that will cost me the least points...

Me too! The curve ball is the Italians who, on one hand, should get 'home Oly' bonus, but on the other hand had been held down like they've spent the night before RD spitting in the technical panel's coffee... Plus, will the Japanese ID geta boost for being Japanese in Japan? What is happening with G/P? Is keeping down younger Americans a thing this year and does it apply to W/Tz?

I need to see the composition of the technical and judging panel pronto!