Any updates on Alissa?

[Mathman]

That's what needs to happen, based solely on that list.

But here is another way to look at it.

At Skate Canada, where Alissa got her season's best (beating Kostner, Zhang and Lepisto), her only mistake in the LP was a -2 GOE on her second Lutz. With just a little tweak she could have got 110 in the LP (and beat Suguri, too).

Unfortunately, in the SP she got downgrades and other penalties on both her jump combo and her solo jump out of footwork. If she had skated a clean SP, she would easily have gotten, say 60.89.

This gives her a potential of 170.89 -- beating everyone else's season's best except Kim, Asada and Richette.

So a perfect skate by Alissa could get as high as fourth even if everyone else matches their seasons's best. :yes:

Pikashu, thanks for the data analysis! :agree:

 

[PolymerBob]

Season's Best: Nationals NOT included

1) Yu-Na Kim: 191.75 - CoC
2) Mao Asada: 191.13 - NHK
3) Joannie Rochette: 188.89 - Skate Canada
4) Caroline Zhang: 171.22 - 4CC
5) Miki Ando: 170.88 - CoC
6) Carolina Kostner: 170.72 - Cup of Russia
7) Cynthia Phaneuff: 169.41
8) Fumie Suguri: 167.74 - 4CC
9) Laura Lepisto: 167.32 - Europeans
10) Rachel Flatt: 166.06 - Cup of Russia
11) Ashley Wagner: 161.10 - NHK
12) Alissa Czisny: 159.81 - 4CC
13) Alena Leonova: 157.18 - Jr Worlds
14) Susanna Poykio: 156.31 - Europeans
15) Sarah Meier: 142.31 - CoC
18) Elena Glebova: 140.67 Cup of Russia
19) Katrina Hacker: 139.66 - NHK
20) Jenna McCorkell: 139.37 Skate Canada
21) Katarina Gerbolt: 137.05 - Europeans
22) Annette Dytrt: 136.98 - Europeans
23) Candice Didier: 135.25 - TEB
24) Julia Sebestyn: 134.47 - Europeans

OK, here is Pikachuusb's final updated list. If we take out Caroline and Ashley, we end up with 9 + 10 = 19. So if 3 girls above them falter, we will get our 13.

 

[Mathman]

So if 3 girls above them falter, we will get our 13.

Or ... both Rachael and Alissa skate up to their potential and score 170 points each. Then we don't have to rely on other skaters faltering, and we still hit our goal. :thumbsup:

 

[Pikachuusb]

Im sorry for soo many changes with my lists. After Nationals I didnt keep current

But if Alissa can skate like she did @ Nationals(please, please, please) and Rachel skates consistantly(like she usually does) its not toally out of the realm of possibility. Granted it will take some people to falter..BUT it is still possible.

I know there is alot of pessimism, but I am going to remain positive & hopeful that things could go well. I just hope Brian & Linda are working with Alissa in this down time, and whoever is working with Rachel gives her the wow factor that she has been missing. If only there was a way to nudge Brian & Linda(if I am mutilating her name I apologise) to Alissa's practices & reworkings of her programs.

I think some of the suggestions people have given on here for added points are actually quite good, concerning footwork & +GOE on jumps and spins.

Im a mess now thinking about this situation and we are a few weeks out from Worlds, I cant even imagine how much of a basket case I'll be when the event actually gets here. My boyfriend just knods and says,"yes dear" whenever I start rambling on about it. Poor guy.

 

[Pikachuusb]

If both Alissa & Rachel do what they did at Nationals and everyone does their season best, the list would look like this.

1) Yu-Na Kim: 191.75 - CoC
2) Mao Asada: 191.13 - NHK
3) Joannie Rochette: 188.89 - Skate Canada
4) Alissa Czisny: 178.06 - US Nationals
5) Rachel Flatt: 173.78 - US Nationals
6) Miki Ando: 170.88 - CoC
7) Carolina Kostner: 170.72 - Cup of Russia
8) Cynthia Phaneuff: 169.41
9) Fumie Suguri: 167.74 - 4CC
10) Laura Lepisto: 167.32 - Europeans

granted ALOT of things would have to work out for this result, but weirder things have happened.

and even if Carolina Kostner & Miki Ando got their score from Nationals we'd still be fine as long as Alissa & Rachel got these scores.

 

[museksk8r]

But if Alissa can skate like she did @ Nationals(please, please, please) its not toally out of the realm of possibility.

If Alissa skates the way she did at Nationals, under-rotating and falling on a 3Lutz and doubling a 3toe, and landing only 3 clean triples in her LP, she will not receive the gift of HUGE PCS like she did at Nationals at Worlds. The Worlds judges will place her where she belongs with such a poor performance, and that will be out of the top 10.

You cannot expect the Worlds judging to look anything like the highly inflated Nationals judging.

 

[skates]

If both Alissa & Rachel do what they did at Nationals and everyone does their season best, the list would look like this.

1) Yu-Na Kim: 191.75 - CoC
2) Mao Asada: 191.13 - NHK
3) Joannie Rochette: 188.89 - Skate Canada
4) Alissa Czisny: 178.06 - US Nationals
5) Rachel Flatt: 173.78 - US Nationals
6) Miki Ando: 170.88 - CoC
7) Carolina Kostner: 170.72 - Cup of Russia
8) Cynthia Phaneuff: 169.41
9) Fumie Suguri: 167.74 - 4CC
10) Laura Lepisto: 167.32 - Europeans

granted ALOT of things would have to work out for this result, but weirder things have happened.

Sorry, but Alissa was majorly gifted at nationals. There is no way for her to get 178 overall by landing a total of 5 triples(SP:2, LP:3)

 

[Pikachuusb]

sorry, if Alissa & Rachel get the scores they got at Nationals the list would look like the above.

Most people at Nationals(minus Caroline Zhang, I know) get inflated scores. Hence the 1st list I created. The other list is the one with regular "nongifted" scores

although Id LOVE Alissa to do another SP like she did @ Nationals, it was beautiful.

Im hoping for a clean LP from her instead of the one she put out at Nationals. Once again Im remaining positive:yes:

 

[R.D.]

She has stated in interviews that her national title will give her confidence at Worlds. I only hope that she doesn't think she will get the same or even a similar score for a repeat performance there.

But here's the thing: The better Rachel does, the lower Alyssa can place. If Rachel were to win, Czisny would only need 12th.

 

[Mathman]

Alissa needs to skate the SP like she did at nationals. Under international judging, I think that would get about 61 points.

The LP, as Museksk8er and Skates mention, was overscored by about 12 points -- I doubt if Alissa would break 100 with that perfromance at worlds.

But with a clean program she could get in the 110 range, which could conceivably put her in the top six. (I hope so.)

 

[R.D.]

Alissa needs to skate the SP like she did at nationals. Under international judging, I think that would get about 61 points.

I think that's entirely possible. She got 55 at 4CC with a FALL!

But with a clean program she could get in the 110 range, which could conceivably put her in the top six. (I hope so.)

But the chance of Alyssa going clean is even lower than it was for Cohen going clean back in the day...

 

[Pikachuusb]

She has stated in interviews that her national title will give her confidence at Worlds. I only hope that she doesn't think she will get the same or even a similar score for a repeat performance there.

But here's the thing: The better Rachel does, the lower Alyssa can place. If Rachel were to win, Czisny would only need 12th.

I have read where she is confident going in with her National win. I reeeally hope that is the case. Cause it seems to be the nerves that gets the best of her.

I also agree with your comment about Rachel, and she said she is in it to win it. Meaning Alissa can be lower, Sooo go Rachel!! Seriously though, I hope she finds the extra oomph to move her up in the standings.

Alissa needs to skate the SP like she did at nationals. Under international judging, I think that would get about 61 points.

The LP, as Museksk8er and Skates mention, was overscored by about 12 points -- I doubt if Alissa would break 100 with that perfromance at worlds.

But with a clean program she could get in the 110 range, which could conceivably put her in the top six. (I hope so.)

The SP for Alissa was beautiful and Im reeaally hoping she can repeat perform that. The long program will have to be clean for her to stay competitive. Im wishing her the very best.

Im also not unrealistic. If they get the three spots, woohoo!!! If not, Im not going to hate them, Im not hot and cold like that. They have a tough field to compete with and it may not happen. But Im not giving up hope yet. It aint over til the fat lady sings, as they say, and she hasnt even come into the concert hall yet:agree:

 

[PolymerBob]

All I can say is that I will be cheering and hoping for Alissa and Rachael to do well. We must support our girls regardless of the outcome.

Cheering and hoping aside, there is still a part of me that thinks the eigenvector of a 4 triple program is less than the Laplace transform of a mule-kick. hwell:

 

[Pikachuusb]

All I can say is that I will be cheering and hoping for Alissa and Rachael to do well. We must support our girls regardless of the outcome.

my thoughts exactly:yes::agree:

 

[demarinis5]

(snip)
Im also not unrealistic. If they get the three spots, woohoo!!! If not, Im not going to hate them, Im not hot and cold like that. They have a tough field to compete with and it may not happen. But Im not giving up hope yet. It aint over til the fat lady sings, as they say, and she hasnt even come into the concert hall yet:agree:

I agree. I think that Rachael and Alissa will be in top form at Worlds. Also don't forget that they will have a home field advantage. How many times in the past have we seen excellent performances from skaters while skating before their home country.The energy from the audience is not to be discounted. I expect Rachael and Alissa to do very well. No medals, but 3 spots oh yeah they can do it.

 

[Pikachuusb]

I agree. I think that Rachael and Alissa will be in top form at Worlds. Also don't forget that they will have a home field advantage. How many times in the past have we seen excellent performances from skaters while skating before their home country.The energy from the audience is not to be discounted. I expect Rachael and Alissa to do very well. No medals, but 3 spots oh yeah they can do it.

how funny, my boyfriend keeps telling me, "dont stress, they have home court advantage, they will suprise you" I thought about telling him its ice not a court, but I know what he means

I hope home field advantage works. But you are correct I have seen many times where the skaters put out AMAZING performances infront of a home crowd. I hope it works. Who am I kidding, I hope anything works:yes:

 

[Particle Man]

I don't know why you'd use season's best. It would be far better to use a season's average, better yet ignoring any nationals, using only ISU-scored events. The list that generates is not only more accurate, but definitely better for our girls, IIRC. Though yes, even with that list I don't think it comes out to 13. But all they need is a few points better than average, again IIRC. Figured mathman would bust out some averages...

And yeah, that doesn't even factor in home-ice advantage. I mean, look at 4CC for cripes sake. If we get even a fraction of that boosting, we should be OK...

 

[fumie_fumie]

Keep in mind that Canadian skaters (Cynthia Phaneuf with 6 triples, Amelie Lacoste with 5 triples, Jeremy Ten, Vaughn Chipeur with 8 triples including 2 triple axels) laid down their best performances of the season at 4CC and their marks reflected on that. They didn't get their marks boosted, just because they were skating in Vancouver.

In fact, Joannie Rochette landed 6 triples and was still behind Mao who landed 4 triples. I still think Joannie deserved higher marks for her LP that what she got. She used to net around 62 in TES with 6 triples during 2007-2008 season while skating to a slightly easier program in terms of transitions. At 2009 4CC, she did the same 6 triples with a lot more intricate entry to/exit from the jumps and she only got 58 in TES. Did she get the boost because she was skating in Vancouver? No. Absolutely not.

 

[Pikachuusb]

I don't know why you'd use season's best. It would be far better to use a season's average, better yet ignoring any nationals, using only ISU-scored events. The list that generates is not only more accurate, but definitely better for our girls, IIRC. Though yes, even with that list I don't think it comes out to 13. But all they need is a few points better than average, again IIRC. Figured mathman would bust out some averages...

And yeah, that doesn't even factor in home-ice advantage. I mean, look at 4CC for cripes sake. If we get even a fraction of that boosting, we should be OK...

I used seasons best because that was the easiest to come by rather than trying to get an average of each girl on quick notice, as well as the fact that a season's best is thier best case senario. Who knows maybe each girl will throw out their best on World ice

Also one of the lists I made IS ISU only and NOT including Nationals(reply #79 of this thread). I did one with and one without just to show with the inflation of Nationals added in. If I would have had more time, maybe I could have averaged them to make 3 lists, but I didnt have that time.

Not to mention the fact that Polymerbob asked what was the ranking using the season's best and my responce was in answer to his question.

 

[PolymerBob]

Keep in mind that Canadian skaters (Cynthia Phaneuf with 6 triples, Amelie Lacoste with 5 triples, Jeremy Ten, Vaughn Chipeur with 8 triples including 2 triple axels) laid down their best performances of the season at 4CC and their marks reflected on that. They didn't get their marks boosted, just because they were skating in Vancouver.

In fact, Joannie Rochette landed 6 triples and was still behind Mao who landed 4 triples. I still think Joannie deserved higher marks for her LP that what she got. She used to net around 62 in TES with 6 triples during 2007-2008 season while skating to a slightly easier program in terms of transitions. At 2009 4CC, she did the same 6 triples with a lot more intricate entry to/exit from the jumps and she only got 58 in TES. Did she get the boost because she was skating in Vancouver? No. Absolutely not.

I don't believe that marks get inflated on home ice. It seems that skaters actually skate better on home ice. This is true with other sports as well. It's probably some 100,000 year old instinct that caused our ancestors to defend the cave against saber-tooth tigers.