Predictions

[Mathman]

Joubert 12
Oda 11
Chan 10
Kozuka 9
Lysacek 8
Lutai 7
Abbott 6
Chipeur 5
Amodio 4
Wu 3
Voronov 2
Yang 1


Asada 12
Ando 11
Zhang 10
Rochette 9
Flatt 8
Leonova 7
Phaneuf 6
C. Didier 5
Liu 4
Gerbolt 3
Xu 2
G. Didier 1


Zhang/Zhang 12
Kavaguti/Smirnov 11
Dube/Davison 10
Denny/Barrett 9
James/Bonheur 8
Takahashi/Tran 7


Khokhlova/Novitske (their payment for taking the hit at Worlds) 12
Virute/Moir 11
Belbin/Agosto 10
Pechalat/Bourzat 9
Reed/Reed 8
Huang/Zheng 7


Japan: 11+9+12+11+7+8 = 58
USA: 8+6+10+8+9+10 = 51
Canada: 10+5+9+6+10+11 = 51
Russia: 7+2+7+3+11+12 = 42
France: 12+4+5+1+8+9 = 39
China: 3+1+4+2+12+7 = 29

 

[PolymerBob]

I can't tell who will place exactly where. But I'm pretty sure it will be either the USA or Canada who will win.

 

[life684]

Joubert 12
Oda 11
Chan 10
Kozuka 9
Lysacek 8
Lutai 7
Abbott 6
Chipeur 5
Amodio 4
Wu 3
Voronov 2
Yang 1


Asada 12
Ando 11
Zhang 10
Rochette 9
Flatt 8
Leonova 7
Phaneuf 6
C. Didier 5
Liu 4
Gerbolt 3
Xu 2
G. Didier 1


Zhang/Zhang 12
Kavaguti/Smirnov 11
Dube/Davison 10
Denny/Barrett 9
James/Bonheur 8
Takahashi/Tran 7


Khokhlova/Novitske (their payment for taking the hit at Worlds) 12
Virute/Moir 11
Belbin/Agosto 10
Pechalat/Bourzat 9
Reed/Reed 8
Huang/Zheng 7


Japan: 11+9+12+11+7+8 = 58
USA: 8+6+10+8+9+10 = 51
Canada: 10+5+9+6+10+11 = 51
Russia: 7+2+7+3+11+12 = 42
France: 12+4+5+1+8+9 = 39
China: 3+1+4+2+12+7 = 29

Mathman, I wonder whether they are going to score Pairs, Ice dancing with 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2 for 1 to 6 places rather than the one give, the scoring above with just loss of a point for placement looks too Japan friendly, plus that doesn't look fair to teams with good ice dancing and pairs teams.

 

[skatingbc]

Mathman, I wonder whether they are going to score Pairs, Ice dancing with 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2 for 1 to 6 places rather than the one give, the scoring above with just loss of a point for placement looks too Japan friendly, plus that doesn't look fair to teams with good ice dancing and pairs teams.

It says in the announcement that it wil be 12, 11 down to 7.

 

[Mathman]

^ One of the stated reasons for this format was that the ISU wanted to provide encouragement for countries like Japan to put more effort into developing their pairs program. I guess the idea is that they didn't want to clobber a country too badly if they didn't really have anyone to send at all, like Japan inpairs and China in dance.

I can't tell who will place exactly where. But I'm pretty sure it will be either the USA or Canada who will win.

We'll see. But Japan is spending a lot of money on this.

 

[chuckm]

I can see Japan easily getting at minimum a 3rd and 4th in Mens, and two medals in Ladies. With 15 points in Pairs and Dance, they could win with 56 points.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

It is a forced prediction for this. The Teams with the most top tier skaters will be up front. France, Russia and China do not have that. So just pick your choice.

btw - Isn't there another comp to go on in Canada this month?

 

[Dipyramidal]

Japan
USA
Canada

 

[PolymerBob]

Japan
USA
Canada

I will say :

USA
Canada
Japan

I figure Tanith and Ben are a shoe-in. If Evan and Jeremy skate like they are capable of, they should finish 2 - 3 or 1 - 3. Then, if either Miki or Joannie can be mule-kicked off the podium, Team USA should have this wrapped up.

We'll see. But Japan is spending a lot of money on this.

That's a good point. I wonder where all this money is coming from. Sometimes the USFSA sounds like they don't have 2 nickels to rub together.

 

[Mathman]

If Evan and Jeremy skate like they are capable of, they should finish 2 - 3 or 1 - 3.

I think men's is the hardest to guess. Lysacek won only one event all year (I can't remember excactly which one, but I am pretty sure he won something... )

He lost to Kozuka (also to Weir) at State America, to Chan (also to Ryan Bradley) at Skate Canada, to Abbott (also Mroz) at U.S. Nationals, and again to Chan at Four Continents. Abbott was even more inconsistent.

Anyway Then, if either Miki or Joannie can be mule-kicked off the podium, Team USA should have this wrapped up.

Caroline has a big advantage coming into this event. She is rested, she is mad as all get-out, and she is ready to rub the faces of the USFSA honchos into the ice.

For everyone else, this is end-of-the-season party time. The lean, mean, mule-kicking machine is ready to rumble.

I wonder where all this money is coming from. Sometimes the USFSA sounds like they don't have 2 nickels to rub together.

My impression is that the money is coming from Japanese TV and corporate sponsors. My feeling is that the USFSA does wonder where its next two nickels will come frome. At the height of popolarity of figure skating in the U.S., the ISU/USFSA had a $20,000,000 contract with ABC and played to full houses.

Now they have a TV contract worth about twenty million less than that and can't even sell out the Worlds Championships.

 

[skatingfan04]

I had no idea how prestigious this event was going to be. I was thinking it would be like the Japan open from the last few years. Gread to see all the countries bringing their big guns. It's like a mini repeat of worlds!

I'm REALLY horrible at this, but i'll give it a shot...

Men

1. Evan Lysacek (he's gonna be on a huge high after LA)
2. Patrick Chan (solid as a rock all season, and this should be no different)
3. Nobunri Oda (i think Joubert will fall apart, since worlds was a bit of a mess for him)

Ladies

1. Joannie Rochette (she'll also be on a high, and she's been consistently better than Mao all season)
2. Mao Asada (can probably redeem herself)
3. Miki Ando (who knows? she might be amazing, or might crash and burn)

Pairs

1. Zhang/Zhang
2. Dube/Davison (could win, and will definately be looking for redemption)
3. Denney/Barret (seem to be on fire this year)

Dance

1. Virtue/Moir (I know, I know, but their FD was squeaky clean at worlds, and if they clean up the OD, they have a solid chance to beat B/A)
2. Belbin/Agosto
3. Khoklova/Novitski

Overall, probably the Canadians. They did get the most medals in LA.

 

[bekalc]

(i think Joubert will fall apart, since worlds was a bit of a mess for him)

See, I think the opposite. I think we are going to have an angry (at himself) Joubert, who will be out to prove something. I'm willing to bet that he'll go for 2 quads in the long program. I think Joubert will use World Team Trophy to send a message. It's just a feeling.

 

[skatingfan04]

See, I think the opposite. I think we are going to have an angry (at himself) Joubert, who will be out to prove something. I'm willing to bet that he'll go for 2 quads in the long program. I think Joubert will use World Team Trophy to send a message. It's just a feeling.

You're absolutely right, bekalc. He could be amazing and win the whole thing. That's the interesting part about the competition after a mediocre performance by any skater. Skaters tend to either tank because of the blow that their confidence took, or shine because of the anger and motivation that they feel. It'll be really interesting to see which way Brian goes.

 

[Alicja]

Realistically I think the question is who either had time to rest before this competition(e.g. Caroline Zhang) or who is able to manage the fatigue, that must be setting in by now with the schedule those skaters have, the best. Imagine for example Alena Leonova: Coupe de Nice, Grand Prix Series, Russian Nationals, Europeans, Junior Worlds, Worlds, probably I've even missed something. What kind of schedule is that? I could imagine that she must be tired by now.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

So many top competitors not in the race

THIS IS ALL SO ANTICLIMATIC

The Men's event may have some interesting moments. Chan, Joubert, Kozuka, Lysacek - Pick your choice. Kozuka's edge at home for me.

Not so for the Ladies. It will be Mao all the way on home ground.

No matter how pretty K&C look, it will be Z&Z for 1st place

Definitely K/N so Russia doesn't go home empty handed.

Only bad errors will keep your favorites from winning, so don't fret over this. No one will remember who won what after awhile.

Should be fun to watch anyway. Will Iceneteork cover it?

 

[PolymerBob]

Ladies

1. Joannie Rochette (she'll also be on a high, and she's been consistently better than Mao all season)
2. Mao Asada (can probably redeem herself)
3. Miki Ando (who knows? she might be amazing, or might crash and burn)

If Joannie can win, it takes 2 points from the Japanese since they finish 2 + 3 = 5 rather than 1 + 2 = 3. There is a good chance one of those girls will get mule-kicked off the podium.

THIS IS ALL SO ANTICLIMATIC
Only bad errors will keep your favorites from winning, so don't fret over this. No one will remember who won what after awhile.

In this case, the drama is in which TEAM will win, not which skater.

 

[Buttercup]

I think men's is the hardest to guess.

Men
1. Evan Lysacek (he's gonna be on a huge high after LA)
2. Patrick Chan (solid as a rock all season, and this should be no different)
3. Nobunri Oda (i think Joubert will fall apart, since worlds was a bit of a mess for him)

Pairs
1. Zhang/Zhang
2. Dube/Davison (could win, and will definately be looking for redemption)
3. Denney/Barret (seem to be on fire this year)

See, I think the opposite. I think we are going to have an angry (at himself) Joubert, who will be out to prove something. I'm willing to bet that he'll go for 2 quads in the long program. I think Joubert will use World Team Trophy to send a message. It's just a feeling.

Mathman's right, the men's field is too unpredictable. With the ladies and the pairs, some big names can't compete. The men's field and the ice dance field look to be very strong. Since the event is in Japan, I think the judges may be less likely to give Evan the benefit of the doubt on some of his jumps. I figure Oda will be on the podium, and other than that, I can't guess.

Joubert is also too unpredictable. Judging from his competitive history, my guess is that bekalc is correct, and this might be like 2006, when Joubert came to Worlds ready to prove himself after his, um, underwhelming performance in Torino. Would this mean a return to the original Matrix again ? No, I guess not.

skatingfan04, D/D for the silver in the pairs, and possibly the win? Ahead of K/S - with the boring/bland programs they have this season? I think that's pretty unlikely. Also, OT, Bryce needs a haircut, and Jessica needs longer skirts. Other than that, I like them.

 

[Medusa]

No matter how pretty K&C look, it will be Z&Z for 1st place

Should be fun to watch anyway. Will Iceneteork cover it?

Who is K&C? Or were you writing Cyrillic?

It's definitely going to be fun - except that I won't be able to follow the results, because I'm going to be in France without Internet in sight.

 

[Mathman]

THIS IS ALL SO ANTICLIMATIC

Think of it as the dessert course.

We've had our soup, our salad, our fish course, our game course, our meat course -- now it's time to let out our belts a notch and enjoy a sweet trifle.

The seventh course is nuts -- that's where we fans come in.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Who is K&C? Or were you writing Cyrillic?

Why it's Kawaguchi and Cmirnov.

It's definitely going to be fun - except that I won't be able to follow the results, because I'm going to be in France without Internet in sight.

Medusa, maybe there is a library where you are going? If not, just think of the World's results. Results won't change all that much.