Over the last three years, Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu, Ashley Wagner and Rachael Flatt have won eight of the nine possible medals at World Juniors. Is there something wrong with our training methods that causes so many skaters to hit this plateau but not to climb higher?
Well, considering that 6 of these 8 were won by juniors too young to compete internationally, and at least one was sent there this year due to dubious National's judging, I don't think that there's anything so extraordinary. Remember that both Michelle Kwan and Sasha Cohen took 2 or more years of senior-level competition before doing really well internationally. Michelle was 8th & 4th at World's before winning, Sasha was 4th twice before her first silver. In contrast, only Ashly & Rachael have been to World's, and Caroline & Mirai still have not. Our young skaters are still *very* young. What happened is *not* that our young skaters are not skating up to expectation, but rather the older skaters have not stuck around (e.g. Sasha bowed out at 21) or sustained their level (e.g. Kimmie Meissner).
Had Sasha stuck around these last few years, Kimmie not had a rapid downward spiral, and Emily/Alissa lived out their early promise, we wouldn't be having this conversation right now.
Importantly, both Michelle & Sasha had their international breakthrough season just after an Olympics and the accompanying change of guards. The same can be said of Yu-na and Mao.
By historical standards, if our current crop of young skaters (Caroline, Mirai, Rachael, Ashley) don't shine in the 2010-11 season, then we might have this conversation again. But I'm almost certain that one or more of them *will* be a major international player by then, since Joannie will retire, Miki probably will, and Yu-na probably will, too. The US has a far superior crop of skaters in the 14-17 age-range than any other country right now, including also the junior skaters Maxwell, Bereswill, Gilles, and Musademba.