- Joined
- Jun 8, 2006
So we are assuming that she is coming back stronger than in 2006 (she has to, without a clean edge 3 lutz) and her goal is an Olympic Bronze Medal.
Sasha. Comeback. Believe it.
- Thread starter Particle Man
- Start date
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
Maybe some posters are expecting that she will be coming bak stronger. I definitely hope so, but I wont put that burden on her. Sasha's a good skater and for SA she is a wait and see. maybe she will even get another GP before SA.
We will soon see the Assignments, at least the first list, the Revisions to follow.
- Joined
- May 15, 2009
Whether she comes back stronger, the same or who knows - for me Sasha is more entertaining than all of them with the exception of a red hot Yuna or Mao.
The others don't come close for me even though I know a clean Carolina, Miki and Joannie can rack up a decent score. But there are simple things like posture and the beauty of her spirals and lay back positions,and dare I say an "it" factor that gives Sasha a huge advantage over most of the field. Of course , there is always a chance Sasha will be falling down or not performing clean enough jumps. Either way, I hope she comes back strong because I miss her beautiful skating. Same with Plushy, who brings such a commanding presense to competitions.
- Joined
- May 15, 2009
I can agree with you even if that remark can be a bit misleading.
I would have no problem if Caroline and Rachael are the two who go to Vancouver. Both had pretty good seasons and both showed surpising maturity and consistency last season. They are still young - Caroline just turned 16 a few days ago. Will they contend for a medal? Probably not unless we see meltdowns. Just so happenes we have some meltdown Queens in Miki and Carolina. Joannie was solid last year but she will be feeling the pressure and she is beatable by Caroline and Rachael should she falter. All three of those ladies are older and may not be any better next season whereas Caroline, Rachael, Mirai and Ashley could all be considerably better.
I can't argue about Mirai last season but I can forgive any skater her age who is dealing with an injury and a growth spurt. For that matter Caroline grew alot too and still kept it together. Alissa is just a beautiful skater who never learned to compete as well as we might have expected. Sasha will have to skate pretty well to make the team. She has done it in the past and the question will be can she still skate at a high competitive level.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
I read a lot of hope for Sasha, including my own, but what does it mean she beat so many of the current top international skaters who have been in competition from 2006 onwards. They are, imo, in better shape than Sasha.
although, if she wins her GP and beats the expected entry to be YuNa, that will be impressive. however, I think the USFS will monitor her for oly material with the final decision at US Nats.
although, if she wins her GP and beats the expected entry to be YuNa, that will be impressive. however, I think the USFS will monitor her for oly material with the final decision at US Nats.
- Joined
- May 15, 2009
I think Nationals will determine Sasha's fate. If she picks up an earlier GP event then SA will be more important to her. But I am comfortable with US Natls being the primary factor in determining the picks for our Olympic team.
I think it will be difficult but hardly impossible for Sasha to get 1st or 2nd at Natls.
Between Caroline, Rachael, Mirai, Ashley, Alissa and who knows who else there are bound to be two very good performances. So Sasha will have to be at 2006 level or better to win a trip to Vancouver.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
You have to realize that Sasha does not have to win anything. All she needs is to be is impressive and considered Oly competitive. If this happens, the US will have only one, skater to earn her place for the Oly Team at the Nats. It is not open for two skaters.Sasha is legally eligible for the Oly team on the recommendation of the USFS. So all this talk about which two boils down to which one.
- Joined
- May 15, 2009
Umm......I don't think it will be that easy or automatic for Sasha. She will have to earn that spot on the ice. All her Siver medal entitles her to is an automatic qualifying spot at Natls. SA has already invited her so that part was easy enough for her. But if she does not finish 1 or 2 there will be problems. If Mirai comes in second and Sasha comes in 3rd Frank Carroll may have enough clout to keep Mirai from getting bumped. There are politics and even though Nicks has big influence he is no Sasha's coach.
I guess we will have to wait and see. Maybe a miracle will occur and Kimmie will get her jumps back. That would mean with Alissa, Kimmie and Mirai Sasha is going up against 3 former national champions. Sasha herself, only has one national title. And don't forget Caroline and Rachael and Ashley. Or Emily who still has the Golden "Hughes" name.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
You're changing your tune and it's difficult to dance to it.
I believe you wrote that her posture is so much better than any other skaters. Well, that could be debatable, but what I am saying is that only a melt down will stop her from the Olys. The USFS is also under pressure to send her to her rightful place at the Olys. She knows this, If you believe she will have a meltdown then ok she wont make the cut.
As for your theories of Nicks and Carroll, I consider them at the point in their lives of not getting into politics. They are both up there in age. Let the ball roll.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
I think Sasha, like everyone else, will have to get first or second at Nationals to make the team.
According to the rules, the only skaters so far who have earned any extra consideration are Rachael (5th at Worlds) and Caroline (4th at Four Continents). Sasha's Olympic medal in 2006 is not one of the factors in the new rules.
(Of course the USFSA can send anyone they want, regardless of the results.)
According to the rules, the only skaters so far who have earned any extra consideration are Rachael (5th at Worlds) and Caroline (4th at Four Continents). Sasha's Olympic medal in 2006 is not one of the factors in the new rules.
(Of course the USFSA can send anyone they want, regardless of the results.)
- Joined
- May 15, 2009
You're changing your tune and it's difficult to dance to it.
I believe you wrote that her posture is so much better than any other skaters. Well, that could be debatable, but what I am saying is that only a melt down will stop her from the Olys. The USFS is also under pressure to send her to her rightful place at the Olys. She knows this, If you believe she will have a meltdown then ok she wont make the cut.
As for your theories of Nicks and Carroll, I consider them at the point in their lives of not getting into politics. They are both up there in age. Let the ball roll.
I still say Sasha had beautiful posture and positions - with Shizuka retired it could still be the best. But that is part of why I love Sasha's skating. I am not saying that is enough to win an Olympic medal in 2010 - or even to get her on Team USA this season.
I wouldn't be surprised if she makes it - and I won't be surprised if a couple of our younger girls slam the door in her face. Youth is pretty hard to beat and you are hoping Sasha will be close to her '06 best. All I am saying is that Caroline, Rachael, Ashley and Mirai have a better chance to get better than they were a year ago.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2007
First or second at Nationals ........... or third or fourth after a stellar Grand Prix. After the season Rachael and Caroline had just had, if they tear up the Grand Prix, they will be cut a great deal of slack at Nationals. If they finish below 2 girls who bombed at the GP, I am sure they will make the team.
Then there is the scenario we don't dare contemplate ..... that the USFSA will pick the Olympic team based on international results before Nationals, then jury rig National results to reflect the decision.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
Polymer Bob said:
Maybe. But a "stellar Grand Prix" means making the finals. (The GP finals is the only GR event listed among the criteria, along with the Junior GP finals.)
I do not think the USFSA will leave the National Champion off the team no matter what.
I think there is kind of a middle ground that might come into play. If Rachael and Caroline tear up the Grand Prix they will go into Nationals as the favorites and our best hopes. The judges will be expecting good skates from them and will be predisposed to smile upon their efforts..
Just smiles. We don't have to mention jury-rigging.
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2006
I think if Sasha skates great in her GP event and the other ladies at nats are less than stellar, I would not be at all surprised to see her on the team. The girl kicked off should not dispair. Sasha/the other lady almost certainly won't go to worlds, so she will go there.
You've a point.
But I'd hate for her to be just "given" a spot because she will bring in more $ or more TV ratings for the OLYs. If she tries out, and two (or more) others outperform her, then those two should go, and too bad for Cohen. Similarly, if she has to pull out due to injury, and she decides to petition for the team, don't let her on if she hasn't shown decent results elsewhere.
Actually, I see any American on the Olympic team going onto the Worlds. They're all so young (I think only Alyssa is older than 20?), and without YuNa and/or Mao there, a huge opportunity will open up for them to possibly contend for a medal.
Cross fingers, knock wood, etc.
See, this is what I don't get. When you have silver already, why would you aim for bronze- one step lower? From a competitive POV, that doesn't make any sense. It's either Gold or "I don't care". And if it's the latter, what would the motivation be behind all that rigorous training (especially when trying to come back)? I mean, look at Dara Torres- she was clearly competitive with the field in her events and even nearly won one of them.
So, I guess what I'm getting at is: I don't understand why Cohen would bother to return if there wasn't that possibility in her mind that she just MIGHT win it all if the moon and stars align. And if so, how realistic that is given the field that she would theoretically be up against, and what she used to do back in her "prime". They are doing stuff she never used to do, and now she's older, and in addition, coming from behind.
Has any skater came back after a lay-off of multiple (i.e. more than one) years and reigned stronger than ever? I don't know of anyone off the top of my head.
ETA: Plushenko is also attempting the same feat. Will be interesting to see, given that both of them make their respective OLY teams, which skater is more successful.
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- Joined
- Mar 23, 2008
My predictions for who they would send to Oly's given various Nationals results: (I guess I will relent a bit on previous absolute statements, given certain scenarios)
Gold medalist will attend.
If silver is held by Sasha, Caroline, Rachael or Mirai, then gold + silver attends as normal.
Now it gets a little hairy. If Sasha gets bronze, and silver is held by the following:
Kimmie or Alissa - slim chance Sasha takes 2nd spot instead
Ashley - moderate chance Sasha takes 2nd spot instead
Emily - moderate to strong chance ...
Anyone else - strong chance ...
If Sasha doesn't get bronze, she won't attend unless she is substituting for someone who gets injured. I mean, the only way they'd send Sasha over both silver and bronze would be if most of our top ladies had total meltdowns, and we ended up with something insane like Bebe with silver, Ashley with bronze, and Sasha with pewter. Practically impossible given the depth of our field.
Gold medalist will attend.
If silver is held by Sasha, Caroline, Rachael or Mirai, then gold + silver attends as normal.
Now it gets a little hairy. If Sasha gets bronze, and silver is held by the following:
Kimmie or Alissa - slim chance Sasha takes 2nd spot instead
Ashley - moderate chance Sasha takes 2nd spot instead
Emily - moderate to strong chance ...
Anyone else - strong chance ...
If Sasha doesn't get bronze, she won't attend unless she is substituting for someone who gets injured. I mean, the only way they'd send Sasha over both silver and bronze would be if most of our top ladies had total meltdowns, and we ended up with something insane like Bebe with silver, Ashley with bronze, and Sasha with pewter. Practically impossible given the depth of our field.
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- Joined
- Feb 17, 2007
I would put like this.
If Rachael or Caroline make the Grand Prix Final with no other Americans finishing higher, she/they are on the Olympic team, Nationals notwithstanding.
If Rachael or Caroline don't make the Grand Prix Final, but medal in both events with no other Americans finishing higher, she/they are on the Olympic team with a top 5 finish at Nationals.
If other girls make the Final, they would be on the team with a top 5 finish at Nationals.
If Rachael or Caroline make the Grand Prix Final with no other Americans finishing higher, she/they are on the Olympic team, Nationals notwithstanding.
If Rachael or Caroline don't make the Grand Prix Final, but medal in both events with no other Americans finishing higher, she/they are on the Olympic team with a top 5 finish at Nationals.
If other girls make the Final, they would be on the team with a top 5 finish at Nationals.
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2008
When has USFSA not sent a Nationals gold medalist to the Olympics? :sheesh:
I bet it has almost never happened even for silver. And withdrawals don't count.
- Joined
- Feb 5, 2004
I just don't think we should really worry that much about it. It doesn't matter that you don't get it, or don't understand why whe's coming back. It doesn't matter if i don't get it or if the whole of the world doesn't get it. The fact is that she is attempting a come back. No skater ever has to tell us their reasons for skating.
If she comes out and says i'm going for gold, loads of people will scoff at the fact she doesn't stand a chance. If she tells us (as she has several times over) that she misses competition and wants that meaning back in her life, people don't believe her.
So it doesn't matter what she, or any other skater tells us, no-one will believe it until the competition is over and we see her reaction to her placement. And even then there will be speculation left, right and centre.
If it's an understanding of her reasons you're looking for, be prepared to be disappointed. Unless you get to talk to her under a ploygraph, y6ou will never believe what she says anyway
Ant
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