Sasha. Comeback. Believe it.

[PolymerBob]

Well, gentle posters, it looks like we will have to agree to disagree on this one. Our questions will be answered, or compounded, come January.

 

[Particle Man]

This illustrates my point pretty well. Why? Because our girls aren't earning the big medals internationally, so it's even harder for those results to overturn Nationals. We didn't even go to the GPF last year, so the entire 2nd level criteria for selection would be out of the picture. Then take a look at the '07/'08 GPF. Caroline Zhang came in 4th, beaten by Yun-a Kim, Mao Asada and Carolina Kostner. Objectively, one could argue that since Yun-a, Mao (and perhaps Carolina at that time) were on a higher level than any of the US skaters, a 4th place finish at GPF was roughly equivalent to a 1st or 2nd place finish at US Nationals. But would USFS really think of it that way? Would there really be a situation where they would say "well, we are sending Caroline Zhang in place of the Nationals gold/silver medalist, because she finished 4th at GPF." That wouldn't wash with a lot of people, and would be tantamount to coming right out and declaring defeat in advance: "the best we can do internationally is 4th." Whether or not it's true, it's not a good thing for them to admit.

Same with Worlds -- if Caroline or someone earned 4th at GPF and 4th at Worlds, would that be enough to send her in place of the Nationals gold or silver medalist? It would be a tough sell.

 

[Mathman]

Here is how I see it.

1. The two junior events do not play a role this year. Caroline gets no brownie points for coming in second to Leonova at junior worlds.

2. Worlds and Four Continents are in the books. Bonus for Rachael for fifth against the strongest possible field. Equal bonus for Caroline for fourth at 4C’s in a field with Kim, Asada, and Rochette – plus, she beat Rachael.

3. That leaves the Grand Prix Final and U.S. Nationals yet to be contested.

If no American lady makes the Grand Prix Final, that event is off the table.

If Rachael or Caroline make the final and does OK against a strong field, that skater will head into Nationals with the edge.

If it is a third skater like Mirai or Ashley (dare I say Kimmie or Alissa? ) that skater will pull even with the other two.

If that third skater is Sasha, Sasha will have banished all doubts and she will zoom to the top of the leader board, spewing ice chips all over Caroline and Rachael as she whizzes by.

4. At Nationals, first and second will be named to the Olympic team unless there is a combination of two factors: (a) The silver medallist is someone who is not even on the radar and (b) someone, either Caroline, Rachael or Sasha, has already established herself as clear number one by the results of the Grand Prix final.

(That's what I think. )

 

[Particle Man]

I'm having doubts that Sasha will be at the GPF this year... something just makes me think that she won't make it to two GP events, be it injury or whatever else. She's also not motivated to aim for the GPF, she sees the GP as just practice for the Olympics. I'd like to be wrong on that though, especially since I'm going to Skate America, and I sure wouldn't that to be the GP she pulls out of.

Maybe if she sees that USFSA is taking the GPF seriously enough to list it second, she should try to make it there? It would also be a chance for her to compete against the top in the world prior to the Olympics...

 

[gkelly]

4. At Nationals, first and second will be named to the Olympic team unless there is a combination of two factors: (a) The silver medallist is someone who is not even on the radar and (b) someone, either Caroline, Rachael or Sasha, has already established herself as clear number one by the results of the Grand Prix final.

(That's what I think. )

Makes sense.

I also think it is a lot more likely that the silver medalist will not be sent if (b) the someone who has already established herself as a favorite with great performances in three Grand Prix events including the final ends up not being able to compete (or complete competing) at Nationals for some temporary health or equipment reason than if she just finishes 3rd or 4th.

The times in the past that skaters who otherwise placed high enough at Nationals were not sent to Olympics, it was to send a pre-Nationals favorite who had withdrawn.

 

[janetfan]

Here is how I see it.

1. The two junior events do not play a role this year. Caroline gets no brownie points for coming in second to Leonova at junior worlds.

2. Worlds and Four Continents are in the books. Bonus for Rachael for fifth against the strongest possible field. Equal bonus for Caroline for fourth at 4C’s in a field with Kim, Asada, and Rochette – plus, she beat Rachael.

QUOTE]

Hello....Caroline also beat Rachael at WTT.......
Caroline was sick as a dog at Jr Worlds. She came back and easily beat Alena in the LP, and beat her again at WTT. Alena is a nice but somewhat unpolished skater who will be 19 or 20 soon. Caroline just turned 16 a few days ago. Please dont stretch the facts to fit a point you are trying to make. I claim that privilige for myself

 

[Tinymavy15]

I don't see Sasha doing 2 GP events. She requested SA because it was late in the season, leaving herself some time to prepare. She just wants a GP to test her new programs before international judges. She would be crazy to go the olympics with two new programs never shown to international judges before after 4 years of not skating competitively and NEVER skating under the current rules. She will have to make the team on how well she skated at nationals, and how she skates at SA (but that will be a small fatcor). The biggest factor IMO is how the podium looks at nationals. If the top two are Racehel and Ashley, as I predict, Sasha is out of luck, esp if one, or both girls have decent GPs.

 

[Mathman]

Hello....Caroline also beat Rachael at WTT.......

We were discussing the six events that factor into the selection of the U.S. Olympic team. The World Team Trophy is not one of them.

Caroline was sick as a dog at Jr Worlds.

The selection criteria are placement and strength of field. State of health is not among the criteria. The "strength of the field" at Junior Worlds was not comparable to Senior Worlds, Four Continents, or the Senior Grand Prix Final.

Caroline just turned 16 a few days ago.

The skater's age is not among the criteria. The USFSA will not send Caroline to the Olympics just because, ah, shucks, she's only 16.

 

[janetfan]

We were discussing the six events that factor into the selection of the U.S. Olympic team. The World Team Trophy is not one of them.
The selection criteria are placement and strength of field. State of health is not among the criteria. The "strength of the field" at Junior Worlds was not comparable to Senior Worlds, Four Continents, or the Senior Grand Prix Final.
The skater's age is not among the criteria. The USFSA will not send Caroline to the Olympics just because, ah, shucks, she's only 16.

So what is your point?
You are talking like a "bot" which I am sure is not the case.
Of course Caroline, Rachael, Mirai and Ashley's age will be a consideration. I am sure enough of that to place a rather large wager that our two skaters at Vancouver will not be Sasha and Alissa. Why not? Because of age - US Skating, while far from perfect will not send two ladies that old to Vancouver, And why should they. The future, 2014 to be more precise is on their minds.
Health is not a factor? Do i have to take your word as opposed to what actually happened in '94 and 2006??? Health was a factor and it is always a possibilty that a spot may be given to a skater unable to compete.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Here are the procedure and the criteria:

I don't know where you dig these things up, MM, but I am glad you do. I didn't even know there was an International Committee Management Sub-Committe (How many fans knew this?)

I presume this sub-committe in reviewing the data of various skaters (silver medalist included, but more is needed) will weigh their deliberations on some sort of ranked order and present their findings to the parent International Committee which will rubber stamp their opinions (unless, of course someone on the main committee, prefers some other skater). No one is privy to this deliberation, I believe.

On an aside to this most welcomed post, I can't help but wonder if the Olympics committee being open to having Sasha's return to the 2010 Olympics included in these deliberations of the sub-committee since it is not a test of skating.

However, her skating a GP event may be used as a test of her abilities as better than other US competitors.

 

[Mathman]

No one is privy to this deliberation, I believe.

Yeah, that's the bottom line. :disagree:

And it's no fun, because without ever knowing the facts we will not be able to say "I told you so" to our Internet sparring partners after it's all over.

About Sasha, who knows. Maybe NBC will tell USFS, "we'll give you a ten million dollar contract to show figure skating next yer if you put Sasha in the Olympics."

 

[MKFSfan]

No offense to Sasha, or her fans, but why would anyone think this scenerio could be possible? Sure, a comeback story would be nice, especially if Sasha ends up fighting for a medal, but is she really that popular amongst the once every 4 year fans that NBC will be targeting? FS is always a draw during the Winter Games, but I bet you'd be hard pressed to find many just WG fans who know who Sasha is. In fact, I just asked my boyfriend who endured the 2002 and 2006 Olympics with me and he said,"Which one is she again?" Of course he'd bever make that same mistake if I asked who is Michelle Kwan!

 

[Particle Man]

In fact, I just asked my boyfriend who endured the 2002 and 2006 Olympics with me and he said,"Which one is she again?" Of course he'd bever make that same mistake if I asked who is Michelle Kwan!

And if you asked or told him about any of the other current girls we had, you'd just get a blank stare. What on earth is your point?

 

[PolymerBob]

4. At Nationals, first and second will be named to the Olympic team unless there is a combination of two factors: (a) The silver medallist is someone who is not even on the radar and (b) someone, either Caroline, Rachael or Sasha, has already established herself as clear number one by the results of the Grand Prix final.

This sounds plausable. The only addition I would make is if the gold medalist is someone who is not on the radar, she stays home just like the silver medalist.

 

[Particle Man]

This sounds plausable. The only addition I would make is if the gold medalist is someone who is not on the radar, she stays home just like the silver medalist.

You like making wrong additions.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

This sounds plausable. The only addition I would make is if the gold medalist is someone who is not on the radar, she stays home just like the silver medalist.

Check out the discussion on p. 27 about the International Committee Management Sub-Committe

They will be discussing ( in private,of course) on who will be the additional skater to go to the Olys after the automatic winner of the Nats is selected.

What would be interesting is how they will deal with Sasha if she does not win US Nationals.

 

[MKFSfan]

And if you asked or told him about any of the other current girls we had, you'd just get a blank stare. What on earth is your point?

LOL...Actually, for kicks, I just asked him that and he replied,"Oh, there's Caroline Zhang and that kid Tara, is she still skating? And Johnny Weir who talks to his glove, but he's not a girl..." I don't talk skating to him, he just paid attention during Nationals, and was impressed by Caroline's spinning (Alissa's too, but I guess he forgot). When I asked him if he remembers any skaters from when we went to COI in 2006, he remembered Michelle, Irina and the acrobats.

Relax. It was not an insult against Sasha or her fans. I was replying to the comment about a hypothetical theory which had NBC requesting Sasha be placed upon the team in exchange for a TV contract. Not everything is an attack on Sasha..

 

[Tinymavy15]

And if you asked or told him about any of the other current girls we had, you'd just get a blank stare.

My mom keeps confusing Tara Lipinski and Sasha, but when I mention any of the other american ladies she doesn't know what /who I am talking about

 

[Particle Man]

Relax. It was not an insult against Sasha or her fans. I was replying to the comment about a hypothetical theory which had NBC requesting Sasha be placed upon the team in exchange for a TV contract. Not everything is an attack on Sasha..

Oh. Well after 27 pages, referring cryptically to "this scenario" is a little too vague.

You're right Sasha won't get MUCH help because of her star power, not after 3 years. But she still has more star power than anyone else we have in the game. If your BF doesn't know her after watching the '06 Olympics, he just wasn't paying attention. Of course Michelle outshines everyone. But Sasha is definitely second in popularity of recent American ladies. I stand by my original (and largely ignored) analysis of Nationals vs Olympic Team:

- Gold medalist will attend.
- If silver is held by Sasha, Caroline, Rachael or Mirai, then gold + silver attends as normal.
- If Sasha gets bronze, and silver is held by the following:

Kimmie or Alissa - slim chance Sasha takes 2nd spot instead
Ashley - moderate chance Sasha takes 2nd spot instead
Emily - moderate to strong chance ...
Anyone else - strong chance ...

If anyone actually manages to make it to the GPF and also get a GPF medal, that could also factor in. That hasn't happened in a while... hmm, now that I think about it, when was the last time a US lady medaled at the Grand Prix final anyway? Oh yes, when Sasha got silver in 2003.

 

[MKFSfan]

My mom always grouped Tara, Sarah and Sasha together. However, she knew "she" lived on Long Island! Every now and then I bring up skating to family and friends. Of course, everyone can correctly identify who Michelle, Tonya, Peggy and Dorothy were. It is sad, and disappointing, majority don't seem to recognize more recent skaters, or even can recall who won Gold in 2002, yet just about everyone seems to watch FS at the Olympics. Then again, I watch swimming only during the Summer Games, and outside Micheal Phelps, I couldn't tell you who did what then or since (except that Phelps won two, lost two recently!).

Oh. Well after 27 pages, referring cryptically to "this scenario" is a little too vague.

I commented right after MM's post. I didn't feel the need to quote when posting immediately after.

No doubt Sasha has star power and more so than the young ones just rising up through the ranks. I don't think any one is questioning this. I don't think it's realistic to expect a 16 year old to be so big superstar and carry the country to the Olympics and all that media stuff that follows being a headliner. Some DO do it better than others: Tara/Michelle in 1998. Sarah, to some extent, in 2002. But those, IMO, are rare incidents. At least Tara/Michelle had already made a mark by winning Worlds and GPF leading up to Nagano.

My boyfriend actually did recognize Sasha name when I asked (after asking him to name names), as the skater who sniffed the jock strap in "Blades of Glory." Seriously-I was shocked, I fell asleep watching it and he woke me up with,"Look, Sasha!" All he seems to remember about the 2006 Olympics is Johnny talking to his hand, Michelle W/D and the Stare. He's not a FS fan. He just humors me if I'm watching it, asks some questions about what/why they are doing things, and thinks beillmanns are absolutely hilarious.

If anyone actually manages to make it to the GPF and also get a GPF medal, that could also factor in. That hasn't happened in a while... hmm, now that I think about it, when was the last time a US lady medaled at the Grand Prix final anyway? Oh yes, when Sasha got silver in 2003.

And to quote you-"what on earth is your point?" After all, Fumie was the winner in 2003, and somehow I doubt that will come into play for 2010. Caroline Zhang has made her case for competing with the Big Girls by having the highest tech marks a couple of times now, not to mention being highest US lady at 4CCs and WTT. I think that is impressive. If Sasha makes it to the GPF next season, especially as the only US lady, that will be impressive, more so if she medals, and will enhance her as the best US chance for 2010. 2nd best would be a strong, best US lady finish at SA. But obviously that goes without saying! I believe as long as Sasha stays healthy, she is a shoe-in for the Team. I just don't see her finishing lower than 2nd, and I would bet money she'll win.