Caroline Zhang's 2009-10 season

[bekalc]

[Age is relative. Mao at 23 will have been a top ranked skater for many years. Do you think a younger and healthier Michelle or Irina would have beaten Sara in '02? I certainly think they would have. They both were showing alot of wear and tear by then.
/QUOTE]

I don't think it was injuries at all that cost Michelle and Irina the OGM in 2002... Both managed to beat Sarah just fine earlier in the season (except for Canada) I suspect that instead the issue was Irina's nerves, and Michelle's lack of a strong coaching situation.

 

[nylynnr]

As to the age difference - Mao is almost three years older than Caroline but closer to two years older than Rachael. But American skaters do not practice as many hours a day/week/month as Japanese skaters.

I don't think you can write this as a fact; it seems to be an assumption on your part. It's more likely that certain Japanese skaters practice more than certain U.S. skaters, and vice versa. For a while, elite Japanese skaters had a hard time getting ice time in Japan, so it's even possible that as they grew up they spent less time practicing than their American counterparts.

 

[Tinymavy15]

Japan does have some talented kids coming up, it's just those kids bombed Junior Nationals and didn't get sent to Junior Worlds. HOWEVER, none are as talented as Mao. This being said no one else has someone as talented as Mao. It doesn't matter though Mao Asada said she will stay in till Sochi if she doesn't win this year. Russia has some talented youngsters coming up, but lets see how puberty treats them.

japan should start worrying.
1st, if Mao wins in 2010, she very probably won't continue. Miki is getting on in years and this is almost certainly Fumie's last year. I can see them all retiring before this time next year.
2nd, if Mao does not win that means 4 more years of battling to stay on top. Even somebody as phemonanal as Mao will very likely lose her triple axel sometime before 2014 and her 3/3 cannot be counted on now...never mind in 4-5 more years. Fact is she could not really be a medal condentor in 4 years...depending what the other nations bring out by then.

 

[janetfan]

I don't think you can write this as a fact; it seems to be an assumption on your part. It's more likely that certain Japanese skaters practice more than certain U.S. skaters, and vice versa. For a while, elite Japanese skaters had a hard time getting ice time in Japan, so it's even possible that as they grew up they spent less time practicing than their American counterparts.

It is true that what I say is based on what I have read and that is not always reliable. I did read that Tat said she was not pleased by Mao's practice habits. She said Mao practices for way too many hours and that would be the first thing she would change this season. Maybe what I read was false, but it sounded reasonable and believeable enough to me. I also have read that Orser was shocked by how many hours Yuna used to practice. He definitely cut her ice time way back and I have heard him say on a taped interview. I see no reason for Orser or Tat to make up stories about something like this.
I hardly think I have said anything close to controversial here and am failry sure this is reasonably accurate information.

 

[R.D.]

But gamblers like to bet on longshots too. Who would be the most likely ladies after the five you mentioned to make it onto the Olympic podium?

Not an easy question. And one whose answer, I imagine, will change over the coming months.

For now, I would submit Rachel Flatt as the only American with any shot at all, assuming she makes the Team, and others Falter. If Caroline Zhang gets on the team, she could hang in there but I think her issues will hold her back from the medal stand, even if she is on, and even with mistakes from the others.

I believe Caroline, Rachael, and Mirai could do it - if they have improved for next season. I list them because I believe younger skaters can and do improve at a faster rate than older skaters. Former Jr World Champions have come through before so I give them a fighting chance. What about from Europe? Or from Asia? Anybody you would bet on?

Leonova is one to watch, not for Vancouver, but for Sochi.

TAKE THE FOLLOWING WITH A GRAIN OF SALT

If Nakano makes the Japanese team, I wouldn't count her out. However, besides Kostner, I can't see any of the Europeans really making a threat. The Russians were the real powerhouse, but once they were gone, there really is no one else. Meier, Korpi, Lepisto, I would consider middle-of-the-pack, maybe rounding out the top 10.

 

[janetfan]

japan should start worrying.
1st, if Mao wins in 2010, she very probably won't continue. Miki is getting on in years and this is almost certainly Fumie's last year. I can see them all retiring before this time next year.
2nd, if Mao does not win that means 4 more years of battling to stay on top. Even somebody as phemonanal as Mao will very likely lose her triple axel sometime before 2014 and her 3/3 cannot be counted on now...never mind in 4-5 more years. Fact is she could not really be a medal condentor in 4 years...depending what the other nations bring out by then.

Maybe speedy should start worrying. If Japanese talent dries up for a few years he could be up a well known creek. After Yuna retires she will probably want to go to college and try to lead a more normal life. So Korean interest could fade quickly after Yuna and they have no one to take her place.
Maybe the next wave will come from Russia.

 

[janetfan]

. The Russians were the real powerhouse, but once they were gone, there really is no one else. Meier, Korpi, Lepisto, I would consider middle-of-the-pack, maybe rounding out the top 10.

When were Russian ladies ever a "powerhouse" ??? They have won exactly one OGM. (Oksana is Ukranian but she grew up in the system so she can be counted). I think Michelle alone has more WC's than all Russian ladies combined.
Russian men have been a true powerhouse since the 90"s but I dont think their ladies ever were.

 

[Tinymavy15]

It is true that what I say is based on what I have read and that is not always reliable. I did read that Tat said she was not pleased by Mao's practice habits. She said Mao practices for way too many hours and that would be the first thing she would change this season. Maybe what I read was false, but it sounded reasonable and believeable enough to me. I also have read Orser was shocked by how many hours Yuna wanted to practice., He definitely cut her ice time way back and that I have heard him say on a taped interview. I see no reason for Orser or Tat to make up stories about something like this.
I hardly think I have said anything close to controversial here.

Interesting. I have often said how the pressure on this poor girl is more than she should be able to handle. That and her love of skating put her on the ice for the whole day. I agree with "Tat" that there is such as thing as over-training, being exhusted will not help her...especilly if she plans on skating through 2014.
Tara was the same way and look what happened to her. I remeber reading that Richard C. had a hard time getting her off the ice.

 

[seniorita]

Russian men were a true powerhouse for a while but I dont think their ladies ever were.

for a while??they have won the last 4 olympics if you count petrenko as soviet, then 5!

Solokova and especially Butyrskaya were also top skaters, not like Irina but good enough.

 

[janetfan]

for a while??they have won the last 4 olympics if you count petrenko as soviet, then 5!

Solokova and especially Butyrskaya were also top skaters, not like Irina but good enough.

But that is all Russian men have won in their entire history. They never won a Gold medal before Petrenko. I don't think they ever won a WC either. Russian strength in Pairs and Dance is unrivaled since the 1960's . Basically their ladies have been been mediocre or worse and there men were never very good until the "system " went down. Then it most definitely changed.
Do you think Plushy can become the equal of Button and win back to back OGM's? That would be something!! For now Plushy is only equal to Scott
PS - actually Scott has 4 WC's and OGM
Plushy has 3 WC's and OGM.

 

[seniorita]

I have no knowledge of crowned Olympic Champions in men before 1980 and Robin Cousins(who was kind of hot), except Button, so I thought it was a russian thing
What men 's russian dominance has to do with collapse of Soviet union except for time coincidence?I m not disagreeing, i m just curious.

 

[janetfan]

I have no knowledge of crowned Olympic Champions in men before 1980 and Robin Cousins(who was kind of hot), except Button, so I thought it was a russian thing
What men 's russian dominance has to do with collapse of Soviet union except for time coincidence?I m not disagreeing, i m just curious.

Maybe it was a coincidence, or most likely with the system changing the singles skaters were able to get better training and coaching than before.
I am sure someone else here can tell you alot about the history of Russian skating. But Russian men were never favorites or winning anything in singles competitions until the 1990's.
It was also easier for USA after WW2. Much of Europe was in terrible shape from the war. So USA won men's OGM in '48, '52 '56 and '60.
USA Ladies won in '56 and '60. I think a Canadian lady, Barbara Anne Scott won right after the war.
Then, in 1961 our entire team and best coaches were killed in the airplane crash. We didn't win again until Peggy Fleming won OGM in 1968.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

But that is all Russian men have won in their entire history. They never won a Gold medal before Petrenko. I don't think they ever won a WC either. Russian strength in Pairs and Dance is unrivaled since the 1960's . Basically their ladies have been been mediocre or worse and there men were never very good until the "system " went down. Then it most definitely changed.
Do you think Plushy can become the equal of Button and win back to back OGM's? That would be something!! For now Plushy is only equal to Scott
PS - actually Scott has 4 WC's and OGM
Plushy has 3 WC's and OGM.

Like Baiul, Petrenko was Ukraine but under the system

I believe the first real Russian was Umanov who had no problem winning over all those returning former champions and whom all splat at that Oly. Anyone of them could have won another Oly medal but it just didn't happen.

Umanov didn't change my mind with those lace gloves he wore. I was still a big fan of Kurt.

 

[Mathman]

Maybe it was a coincidence, or most likely with the system changing the singles skaters were able to get better training and coaching than before.

Many people say it is just the opposite. All of the Russian stars of the 1990s and early 2000s at least got their start in training under the old Soviet system (even Plushenko). Now that this group has gone through the pipeline, it is increasingly hard for Russian skaters to get funding for good caoching, etc. -- plus a good percentage of Russian coaches have moved to other countries, seeking higher pay and better working conditions.

Even so, for some reason the old Soviet Union went in more for pairs, and later, dance, than singles. USSR/Russian pairs skaters won every single Olympic gold medal since 1964 (counting sharing thge title in 2002.) In six of those 11 Olympics, Russian skaters won both the gold and the silver.

In dance, Russians/Soviets won every Olympics since dance was admitted in 1976, except 1984 (Torville and Dean) and 2002 (but Anisinna was a Russian skating for France).

 

[seniorita]

You can also see the difference in the advertisement deals etc american skaters have when they top the podium comparing to almost nothing for the russian skaters, even if (i suppose) figure skating is more popular sport in Russia.

 

[janetfan]

Many people say it is just the opposite. All of the Russian stars of the 1990s and early 2000s at least got their start in training under the old Soviet system (even Plushenko). Now that this group has gone through the pipeline, it is increasingly hard for Russian skaters to get funding for good caoching, etc. -- plus a good percentage of Russian coaches have moved to other countries, seeking higher pay and better working conditions.
.

I have heard what you are saying many times too but I still don't get it. I do understand that the Russian skaters of the 90's came out of the "system" but in greatly varying degrees and durations. Plushy was only in the system until he was 10 or 11. Yags would have been out by the time he was 13 or 14. Oksana was out by the time she was 12 and only Galina kept her from a much different fate.. Only Petrenko and Urmanov were in the system for the majority of the early career. Iilya might be half and half but when he won the OGM in '98 the system had been done for quite a while. The stories we hear about Oksana and Plushy are not golden stories of a "system" training and nurturing young athletes. There lives were harder than most of us in the West can even imagine. Plushy became great because there was NO system. He made a decision to become a great skater and he did it without the system, in fact he did it like a very poor child from the USA would have to do it. Sacrifice and hope and dependence on kindness of others. Oksana had it tough too. I don't know about Yags or the others but by time Plushy won in 2006 the "system" had been gone for a decade.
I wish I knew more about this, and if I have some dates or timelines wrong I apologize for not researhing it.
But to me Plushy's story is one of success on his own terms. There was no system for him for the bulk of his career. Those days ended when he was very young.
I think the Russian men only began to become so great once they were free of the system. Hunger and a drive to succeed is mighty powerful. Some might say more powerful than winning for the "system"

 

[R.D.]

When were Russian ladies ever a "powerhouse" ??? They have won exactly one OGM. (Oksana is Ukranian but she grew up in the system so she can be counted). I think Michelle alone has more WC's than all Russian ladies combined.
Russian men have been a true powerhouse since the 90"s but I dont think their ladies ever were.

when I say powerhouse, I meant they were in the medal mix. Maybe that was the wrong word to use because I didn't mean to imply they were winning all the time

 

[Tinymavy15]

I have heard what you are saying many times too but I still don't get it. I do understand that the Russian skaters of the 90's came out of the "system" but in greatly varying degrees and durations. Plushy was only in the system until he was 10 or 11. Yags would have been out by the time he was 13 or 14. Oksana was out by the time she was 12...

True, but think about it. by the age of 10 or 11 most elite skaters to-be are starting triple jumps. Even if the soviet system was no longer in place during their teens and skating career, the coaches, facilities etc were probably open. Skating was something the russians still felt passionate about.

 

[bekalc]

I have heard what you are saying many times too but I still don't get it. I do understand that the Russian skaters of the 90's came out of the "system" but in greatly varying degrees and durations. Plushy was only in the system until he was 10 or 11. Yags would have been out by the time he was 13 or 14. Oksana was out by the time she was 12 and only Galina kept her from a much different fate.. Only Petrenko and Urmanov were in the system for the majority of the early career. Iilya might be half and half but when he won the OGM in '98 the system had been done for quite a while. The stories we hear about Oksana and Plushy are not golden stories of a "system" training and nurturing young athletes. There lives were harder than most of us in the West can even imagine. Plushy became great because there was NO system. He made a decision to become a great skater and he did it without the system, in fact he did it like a very poor child from the USA would have to do it. Sacrifice and hope and dependence on kindness of others. Oksana had it tough too. I don't know about Yags or the others but by time Plushy won in 2006 the "system" had been gone for a decade.
I wish I knew more about this, and if I have some dates or timelines wrong I apologize for not researhing it.
But to me Plushy's story is one of success on his own terms. There was no system for him for the bulk of his career. Those days ended when he was very young.
I think the Russian men only began to become so great once they were free of the system. Hunger and a drive to succeed is mighty powerful. Some might say more powerful than winning for the "system"

Yagudin/Plushenko/Kulik all of them were first discovered by Soviet scouts. I.e they tried out as kids, and were given free lessons because they showed they had potential. By the time the Soviet system collapsed, their potential was already identified, and coaches like Mishin choose to work things out so they could continue skating.

Mishin for example, coached Plushenko for free....They were all also trained by former Soviet coaches, coaches trained in the Soviet system.

If you look at Russian skating, now, you'll notice that they haven't had a single World Champion who was not identified by the Soviet system.

I.e it's one thing to invest in a student like Plushenko who clearly has potential. And it's one thing to pay money if your kid is someone like Alexei Yagudin whose landing triple axels at 13!.

It's another thing when your struggling with cash, to give free lessons to every kid who wants to every new skater, and/or to pay initial lessons for your kid to try out.

In fact Illia Kulik said so much when he said that he'd have never tried skating, if it weren't for the system.. Witt has said similar things about skating in East Germany.

After the system collapsed a lot of the good coaches left for the West. And a lof of the schools that discovered people like Plushenko, were closed down. In fact Plushenko's rink were he first started became a car lot. Yagudin's old coach left for the West.

Yagudin/Plushenko they were already in the pipeline. But the problem was that there wasn't a system in place to discover people after Yagudin/Plushenko.

As for why no champions before Petrenko, there was actually A Soviet Male World Champion before Petrenko (I don't remember his name) If I understand correctly for awhile the Soviets put their best skaters in pairs/dance. And it may have taken them a while to figure out singles. But they were getting better under singles, given the talents that were clearly being developed. (Petrenko! Urmanov!)

Seeing as I said Russia has had NO world champions that were not discovered by the Soviets, I don't think we can say all of their success is because the Soviet system collapsed. Plushenko for example absolutely would have had a desire to win under the Soviet system. There were tangible benefits under that system to being a Champion athlete.

 

[Medusa]

As for why no champions before Petrenko, there was actually A Soviet Male World Champion before Petrenko (I don't remember his name)

Fadeev. Fantastic skater, just inconsistent. In 1985 he won the Worlds. My favourite performance is his 1989 Europeans free program though.