Well, looks like one of those "unlikely things" has already happened...
That's true. Who would've thought that Mao would get 5th here? 2nd and 5th put her out of running -- her scores weren't even high, so she wouldn't be able to win a tiebreak with points if it came down to that.
I think Joannie will win both CoC and SC, Yu-na will win SA, and Miki is likely to win at NHK. So those are your top 3 at GPF. Yukari is likely to have silver at NHK, so she will probably qualify, too.
If Carolina comes back strong at CoC and wins the silver, then she can really wreck havoc with the standings even though she herself can't qualify -- she got 6th at TEB. With Carolina, you just never know! She usually starts the season really weak and then gradually gets stronger through the season, last season was really abnormal for her. The podium at CoC is just really hard to predict, beyond Joannie, who knows who will get silver & bronze among Carolina K, Fumie Suguri, Rachael Flatt, Mirai Nagasu, and even Akiko Suzuki. Akiko came in 2nd at NHK last year, her only GP event, and then 8th at 4CC, behind Rachael but ahead of Alissa.
I guess at NHK the bronze is between Alena Leonova, Ashley Wagner, Laura Lepisto, and possibly Sarah Meier. Another really hard prediction!
At SA, after Yu-na's gold, it's again unpredictable among Sasha Cohen, Rachael Flatt, and Alexe Gilles. I guess Rachael is most likely to have silver, Sasha Bronze, but I don't know, Sasha will probably get a big PCS boost that'll help her, and these days it seems few people besides Yu-na are landing more than 5 triples!
Well, anyway, it's impossible to know now until SC whether Caroline will have a shot at GPF. I don't think she can beat Joannie, unless the latter has an epic meltdown, and I just can't see that happening. She definitely needs to defeat both Mirai and Alissa, though, to stand a chance (and she also has Laura Lepisto & Akiko Suzuki at SC, yikes). She just got such tough assignments this year! Ashley's score this week would've landed her in 4th place last week at TEB!