Mid-Season Report: U.S. Ladies, R.D. Style

[PolymerBob]

All this brings up an important point. How will the National judges use the other 5 events to pick the Olympic team? Will they factor them in somehow, possibly sending someone other than the top two? ........ Or will they jury rig the National results to suit their liking.

I don't want Rachael, Sasha or anyone held down. But I don't want them held up either. If Rachael is the USFSA darling and she is the 4th best skater, then give her 4th place and send her to Vancouver. But don't rig the National results, please.

 

[janetfan]

All this brings up an important point. How will the National judges use the other 5 events to pick the Olympic team? Will they factor them in somehow, possibly sending someone other than the top two? ........ Or will they jury rig the National results to suit their liking.

I don't want Rachael, Sasha or anyone held down. But I don't want them held up either. If Rachael is the USFSA darling and she is the 4th best skater, then give her 4th place and send her to Vancouver. But don't rig the National results, please.

I agree with eveything you said except the next to last and most important point.

If Rachael is only the fouth best skater at Nationals I hope they don't send her.
I hope they send the top two skaters.

I can understand the rationale for Rachael but a skater that has never won a major International medal should not be given any favors. She hasn't earned them and it would damage the credibilty of Nationals.

Sasha and the others should not be given favors either - but this is skating we are discussing - and somehow I doubt if the results or choices will be fair or able to please eveybody.

It will give us alot to discuss though

 

[Nigel]

ITA. To me Flatt has the momentum at Nationals even with Wagner's decent performance. Yes Flatt struggled a bit at Cup of China but her total score at Skate America was well over 10 points higher than anything the other US girls have managed to do. And yes with how shaky some are skating Rachael ABSOLUTELY has an outside shot at a medal.

And I really don't see Flatt being held back this time at all. Yes they held her back last year at Nationals but factors have changed. Her fifth place finish at Worlds, and her big score at Skate America is not going to be lost on the USFSA. (They aren't dumb and they've seen how the other top ladies are skating) I think the USFSA is going to get behind Rachael this time.

I think Flatt and her team were "sent a message" at US nationals last season. It was common knowledge that her La Mer freeskate program from last season was not well rec'd by judges (domestic and international) and she made the switch back to her LP from the previous season "Romantic Rhapsody" after 4CC and prior to WC. Flatt and her team got the message, switched programs, and she was well rec'd in LA at WC. Yes, she was not close in score to the podium group in LA, but honestly, does anyone think a newcomer was going to break through into the Kim, Rochette, Ando and Asada group in their first season at the international senior level. 5th was commendable for Flatt.

Flatt and her team (IMHO) probably considered the feedback from last season when choosing music this season. Her programs are both personality driven (SP) and classic big music for an Oly season (LP).

With that said, all the ladies (and that includes Cohen if she chooses to show up in Spokane) still have to skate at Natls.

 

[bekalc]

I agree with eveything you said except the next to last and most important point.

If Rachael is only the fouth best skater at Nationals I hope they don't send her.
I hope they send the top two skaters.

I can understand the rationale for Rachael but a skater that has never won a major International medal should not be given any favors. She hasn't earned them and it would damage the credibilty of Nationals.

Sasha and the others should not be given favors either - but this is skating we are discussing - and somehow I doubt if the results or choices will be fair or able to please eveybody.

It will give us alot to discuss though

Oh I don't think that Rachael should be sent if she places fourth either bombs. But if Rachael skates well at Nationals-Rachael will go.

 

[silverlake22]

Oh I don't think that Rachael should be sent if she places fourth either bombs. But if Rachael skates well at Nationals-Rachael will go.

I agree. I tend to think Rachael will skate well enough to get 1st or 2nd at nationals, 3rd maybe if something weird happens. The only top US lady with a high potential of bombing is Alissa, and as defending champ, if she can keep it together and fairly earn 1st or 2nd place at Nats then I think she would have proven to the USFS that she has overcome her nerves and is able compete well under pressure and deserves to go to the Olympics. I'm not really worried about her getting held up this season because if she does falter under pressure, it doesn't bode well for the Olympics and the USFS should realize that.

Mirai and Caroline aren't likely to bomb, but they have some things to work on. I wonder if Mirai would ever switch to her LP from last year for nationals.....if she did her and rotates her jumps she'd have a good shot at 1st or 2nd

 

[R.D.]

Flatt should not have too much trouble
getting 1st or 2nd at these Nats. If, however, she performs like she did in China AND a couple of the others perform to their potential, things could get strange. As for everyone else, seriously, it depends on the weather...someone could probably make a big fancy spreadsheet loaded with statistics on how the girls perform and run iterations (simulations) of the competition to see who would place in the top 4 each time. I bet you'd get a different outcome almost every time...

I do think from here on out, we should (or at least I will) throw Cohen out of the equation. She messes everything up and come to think of it, probably won't be there anyway.

 

[silverlake22]

I do think from here on out, we should (or at least I will) throw Cohen out of the equation. She messes everything up and come to think of it, probably won't be there anyway.

Agreed. Even if she does show up, if she is in below 3rd place after the short I bet she'd withdraw, just because she cares about winning so badly

 

[Layfan]

Flatt should not have too much trouble
getting 1st or 2nd at these Nats. If, however, she performs like she did in China AND a couple of the others perform to their potential, things could get strange. As for everyone else, seriously, it depends on the weather...someone could probably make a big fancy spreadsheet loaded with statistics on how the girls perform and run iterations (simulations) of the competition to see who would place in the top 4 each time. I bet you'd get a different outcome almost every time...

I do think from here on out, we should (or at least I will) throw Cohen out of the equation. She messes everything up and come to think of it, probably won't be there anyway.

It's funny because it's true.

ETA: Not sure if I agree with Flatt having a shot at a medal. It would have to be a Sarah Hughes-like situation with almost all the favorites bombing and her doing even better than she did at SA. She was really far behind the medalists point-wise at 2009 worlds.

Oh, I agree a whole lot of people would have to bomb. My point was that it's sadly not a completely unrealistic scenario, given the way Mao and Joannie have been performing recently, not to mention Carolina and others.

 

[janetfan]

Here is a clip with Sasha explaining how she will outsmart the others by understanding CoP scoring better and using it to her advantage.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyUP...EC9DF3B8&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=22

No wonder I love Sasha so much

 

[silverlake22]

It's funny because it's true.




Oh, I agree a whole lot of people would have to bomb. My point was that it's sadly not a completely unrealistic scenario, given the way Mao and Joannie have been performing recently, not to mention Carolina and others.

I'm not sure a whole lot of people have to bomb....Rachael could easily come in 3rd if Yuna wins first and Miki wins second. Here's why: Rachael knows how to work the CoP. Her scores at SA was 174.91, Mao's score at TEB was 173.99. Mao did not make many mistakes at TEB, she popped her 3a in the short, hit her 3a-2t in the long, 2footed her second 3a in the long (resulting in a downgrade) and fell on her 2a. Rachael fell in the short and her last spin did not count, so she also could have been higher. I highly doubt Mao will land all three of her 3a attempts, if she hadn't gotten the second one in the LP downgraded, her score would be about 5 points higher, so that gets her to 178. If Rachael's spin had counted, she'd be about 5 points higher as well, getting her to 179.

Rachael can edge out a Mao with 2 3axels if she hits all her jumps, which normally she does, and fixes her last spin. If Mao hits all three of her 3axels, she will probably be in 2nd behind Yuna (even if Yuna makes some mistakes). But how likely is Mao landing all three of her 3axels? Not very. It usually seems that she pops one, lands one, and has one UR. If that happens, Joannie, Miki, and even Rachael could bump her out of the running, all they have to do is skate clean. They are smart though and realize you don't have to take huge risks to rack up points.

I leave out an spoilers, such as Carolina, who could medal if she skates clean and hits her 3-3. Alissa I think has only a very slim shot at medaling as her FS is not technically up to par with the top girls. I suppose if another European does all her triples the judges could get really excited and let whoever that may be medal . At this point I put Miki ahead of Mao, and Mao and Joannie equal (both have potential but have had problems recently), but Rachael is right behind them

 

[Layfan]

I'm not sure a whole lot of people have to bomb....Rachael could easily come in 3rd if Yuna wins first and Miki wins second. Here's why: Rachael knows how to work the CoP. Her scores at SA was 174.91, Mao's score at TEB was 173.99. Mao did not make many mistakes at TEB, she popped her 3a in the short, hit her 3a-2t in the long, 2footed her second 3a in the long (resulting in a downgrade) and fell on her 2a. Rachael fell in the short and her last spin did not count, so she also could have been higher. I highly doubt Mao will land all three of her 3a attempts, if she hadn't gotten the second one in the LP downgraded, her score would be about 5 points higher, so that gets her to 178. If Rachael's spin had counted, she'd be about 5 points higher as well, getting her to 179.

Rachael can edge out a Mao with 2 3axels if she hits all her jumps, which normally she does, and fixes her last spin. If Mao hits all three of her 3axels, she will probably be in 2nd behind Yuna (even if Yuna makes some mistakes). But how likely is Mao landing all three of her 3axels? Not very. It usually seems that she pops one, lands one, and has one UR. If that happens, Joannie, Miki, and even Rachael could bump her out of the running, all they have to do is skate clean. They are smart though and realize you don't have to take huge risks to rack up points.

I leave out an spoilers, such as Carolina, who could medal if she skates clean and hits her 3-3. Alissa I think has only a very slim shot at medaling as her FS is not technically up to par with the top girls. I suppose if another European does all her triples the judges could get really excited and let whoever that may be medal . At this point I put Miki ahead of Mao, and Mao and Joannie equal (both have potential but have had problems recently), but Rachael is right behind them

Okay, here's a question. Since it IS impossible to completely eliminate subjectivity, will it make a difference in the judges eyes whether Rachael goes into the Olympics as the U.S. National Champion?

I'm thinking of a scenario like this:

1. Yuna skates clean, so she's on top.
2. Miki Ando skates clean, so she wins the silver
3. Joannie and Mao bomb so they are out of contention for a medal.

That leaves the bronze open to the long shots. Rachael Flatt, Laura Lepisto, Akiko Susuki all have the skate of their lives. (Let's assume everyone else like the other American and Carolina stumbles)

Who wins the bronze? Are they more inclined to give it Laura because she's the European Champ? But if Rachael is the U.S. Champ, does that give her an extra edge? OR if ALISSA is the national champ and (gasp!) has the skate of her life, does SHE have an edge because she's a TWO-TIME U.S. champ?

 

[silverlake22]

Okay, here's a question. Since it IS impossible to completely eliminate subjectivity, will it make a difference in the judges eyes whether Rachael goes into the Olympics as the U.S. National Champion?

I'm thinking of a scenario like this:

1. Yuna skates clean, so she's on top.
2. Miki Ando skates clean, so she wins the silver
3. Joannie and Mao bomb so they are out of contention for a medal.

That leaves the bronze open to the long shots. Rachael Flatt, Laura Lepisto, Akiko Susuki all have the skate of their lives. (Let's assume everyone else like the other American and Carolina stumbles)

Who wins the bronze? Are they more inclined to give it Laura because she's the European Champ? But if Rachael is the U.S. Champ, does that give her an extra edge? OR if ALISSA is the national champ and (gasp!) has the skate of her life, does SHE have an edge because she's a TWO-TIME U.S. champ?

That's a very good question. I would probably say Laura though (same goes for Carolina) because if she lands all her triples the judges will freak out and let her medal . I mean let's face it, Carolina won 2nd at worlds in 2008 with kinda shaky performances....the judges have different standards for the Europeans.

As for Rachael, if she hits all her elements that's where she's going to get the points, being national champ will probably help her PCS so she has a good shot.

In terms of Alissa, if she lands and fully rotates all 6 of her triples then it might be hard to leave her without a medal. (When was the last time she landed 6 clean triples in the LP? ). But I don't think it will happen, and with even just 1 fall and one UR or two URs and no falls, that gets her down to 4 triples. Should someone with 4 triples really win a medal? Unless you're European, I don't think it's likely to happen

 

[Layfan]

That's a very good question. I would probably say Laura though (same goes for Carolina) because if she lands all her triples the judges will freak out and let her medal . I mean let's face it, Carolina won 2nd at worlds in 2008 with kinda shaky performances....the judges have different standards for the Europeans.

As for Rachael, if she hits all her elements that's where she's going to get the points, being national champ will probably help her PCS so she has a good shot.

In terms of Alissa, if she lands and fully rotates all 6 of her triples then it might be hard to leave her without a medal. (When was the last time she landed 6 clean triples in the LP? ). But I don't think it will happen, and with even just 1 fall and one UR or two URs and no falls, that gets her down to 4 triples. Should someone with 4 triples really win a medal? Unless you're European, I don't think it's likely to happen

That's what I thought. Not so much because they are Europeans but because they are much more decorated than Rachael, especially Carolina.
That's sort of why I left Carolina out of my scenario. Throw Carolina in and the answer is obvious.

If it's fight for bronze between Carolina, Rachael, Laura and Akiko and they all have the skate of their lives, then Carolina wins. Anyhow, is it realy that controversial to think that Carolina at her best is the better skater in that list?

 

[silverlake22]

If it's fight for bronze between Carolina, Rachael, Laura and Akiko and they all have the skate of their lives, then Carolina wins. Anyhow, is it realy that controversial to think that Carolina at her best is the better skater in that list?

I don't think so, because technically she is better than the rest accept for Rachael. She and Rachael both do 3f-3t combinations while the other ladies have no 3-3s. Rachael is also young and not particularly elegant though so Carolina is superior in the PCS mark. I'd say a clean Carolina is a bigger threat than all the rest, but she also probably has the biggest bomb potential of those ladies, and Alissa too. So we'll see what happens

 

[janetfan]

That's what I thought. Not so much because they are Europeans but because they are much more decorated than Rachael, especially Carolina.
That's sort of why I left Carolina out of my scenario. Throw Carolina in and the answer is obvious.

If it's fight for bronze between Carolina, Rachael, Laura and Akiko and they all have the skate of their lives, then Carolina wins. Anyhow, is it realy that controversial to think that Carolina at her best is the better skater in that list?

I believe Carolina at her best is better than the skaters you mentioned.
Laura at her best is pretty good too but like Carolina she struggles a times.

For me Akiko and Rachael are more likely to skate their best and I think Akiko at her best is better than Rachael at her best.

I think all three at their are best are better than Rachael.

I have never seen Rachael skate a strong SP and LP at the same event as a senior so where this Miss Consistency title comes from is a mystery to me.

 

[R.D.]

Well, to be fair, Rachel won't be facing either Suzuki or Kostner at US Nationals

 

[Layfan]

I believe Carolina at her best is better than the skaters you mentioned.
Laura at her best is pretty good too but like Carolina she struggles a times.

For me Akiko and Rachael are more likely to skate their best and I think Akiko at her best is better than Rachael at her best.

I think all three at their are best are better than Rachael.

I have never seen Rachael skate a strong SP and LP at the same event as a senior so where this Miss Consistency title comes from is a mystery to me.

Maybe it's relative to the woeful track record of all the other American girls

But I agree. If Rachael and Ashley (especially Ashley) are so consistent and so much better competitors than all the other girls, let them prove it by coming in 1-2 at Nationals. If they are defeated, they should not go.

 

[R.D.]

In terms of Alissa, if she lands and fully rotates all 6 of her triples then it might be hard to leave her without a medal. (When was the last time she landed 6 clean triples in the LP? ). But I don't think it will happen, and with even just 1 fall and one UR or two URs and no falls, that gets her down to 4 triples. Should someone with 4 triples really win a medal? Unless you're European, I don't think it's likely to happen

Hmm. Well.

This is ALYSSA CZISNY we're talking about

This is the OLYMPICS we're talking about

'Nuff said!!

Flatt could capitalize on others' mistakes at Olys, yes, but I'm not sure how she'll handle the pressure at the Olys herself. Remember that the Oly pressure has unnerved even some of the most consistent, steely competitors in the past.

I do think there might be an SOHL skated at the Games. As to who it might come from, well, that's beyond the scope of this thread

 

[Kwanford Wife]

Maybe it's relative to the woeful track record of all the other American girls

But I agree. If Rachael and Ashley (especially Ashley) are so consistent and so much better competitors than all the other girls, let them prove it by coming in 1-2 at Nationals. If they are defeated, they should not go.

I couldn't agree more... when was the last time the USFSA was willing to bump the 1-2 skaters from the Olympic team because fans on boards thought that should happen? And in defence of last year's podium - Alissa won by virtue of her very strong short program. Fans should let it go and let the programs speak for themselves... Also, no disrespect towards the US ladies - but to even imply that they can compete with a clean Carolina is a bit silly. When she's on, she's outta control and all the US ladies will be able to do is say: Wow...she's fast... But I believe this to be true of Mao and JoRo as well.

From where I sit - we have five skaters, six if you want to throw Akiko into the mix of true medal contenders headed to Vancouver. One has the edge, two have the talent / potential, one is a headcase, one will be hometown fav, and one is new on the scene, sorta. And then there's one who could show up at Nationals and make this a mute point with a convincing victory and / or 1st place short program and 2nd in the long.

Everybody else will need disasters of historic proportions to make any head way... granted, its the Olympics and stranger things have happened...

 

[janetfan]

Maybe it's relative to the woeful track record of all the other American girls

But I agree. If Rachael and Ashley (especially Ashley) are so consistent and so much better competitors than all the other girls, let them prove it by coming in 1-2 at Nationals. If they are defeated, they should not go.

That makes the most sense to me. I am sure US Skating sees it that way too.

If these young girls can't beat an old hag like Sasha they don't deserve to go.