LADIES- Japanese Nationals (Senior)

[Nadia01]

I don't know there is full-time students under TAT now. And I think that TAT's main work during Russian National is commentary. I might be wrong.

And I don't know why TAT still wants to keep this part-time relationship with Mao even when she thinks this doesn't work. You know, relationship is mutual.

IIRC Tat asked Mao to get a full-time coach in Japan because she didn't think the part-time situation would be good for Mao, but it was Mao who wanted to hire Tat.

I thought Tat had full-time students in Russia. Oi...I guess I'm wrong about that.

TBH I think Rafael can be an excellent coach for Mao at least for fixing jumps and so on because he's very technical, but I'm not sure how Mao feels about training with him again.

 

[herro]

Is that a hypothetical question? Seems like you know the answer to that one. Well if the top contenders skate their best, then I don't think Flatt, Kostner, Suzuki will even have a chance. They're just not in the same level. Kim will win because the overall strength of her programs this season is just better than everyone else's. Mao is at an disadvantage due to her choice of choreagraphy and her jump layout. I don't think Ando can beat Kim even at her best honestly.

haha

Well, I can say that I'm really familiar with the sport and I know it very well but to be honest, I don't know point values of the new system too well. I guess purely by points, Kim would have the edge?

I hope this isn't hypothetical. It'd be so awesome if everyone did skate their best.

 

[silverlake22]

Hey guys,

So I know this may not be the right place to bring up talk of other non-Japanese skaters, but I have an honest question.

Let's say, at a hypothetical event, all of the Olympic medal threats skate their very best programs - the artistry that they planned and envisioned, as well as all of the jumps hit flawlessly. Among candidates like Asada, Kim, Suzuki, Ando, Rochette, Kostner, Flatt (am I forgetting any?) who do you guys think would come out on top?

Goodness, it's so clear that I can't wait that long for the Olympics to start.

I'd say:
1.) Yuna
2.) Miki
3.) Carolina
4.) Joannie
5.) Mao
6.) Rachael

The top three all have 3-3s which set them apart, and they are also all super FAST. Mao because of her jump layout and choices would be lower, I put her behind Joannie because Joannie beat her at worlds last year and both doubled a jump. Rachael is last just because her PCS aren't as strong and all the ladies you mentioned can all do 6 or 7 triples like Rachael. This is just MPO though, and this is if they were all PERFECT.

 

[miki88]

If they all skated perfectly, I guess it's assumed that Mao lands all her axels. What will be her potential score for that? I just don't see Mao being so low if she skates her perfect program, cuz I always felt she would be better than Miki, Carolina, and Rochette if she skated her best. But if it is a layout problem then I hope she makes some changes asap, because it will be disappointing to see her off the podium even if she skates clean.

 

[bigsisjiejie]

If they all skated both SP and FS to the maximum of potential, I think the OGM will still be Yuna Kim's. However, all of the ladies surely won't skate one or both of their programs perfectly. And this is what is going to make things so interesting...:yes:

 

[Marrymeyunakim]

If that was the case, I think that Mao would be giving Kim a run for her money, with Kim edging her out just because of the SP.

 

[Marrymeyunakim]

With this all said, I can still see Mao as the winner of the OGM. She'd have to skate well, but she can do it!!!

 

[janetfan]

I'd say:
1.) Yuna
2.) Miki
3.) Carolina
4.) Joannie
5.) Mao
6.) Rachael

The top three all have 3-3s which set them apart, and they are also all super FAST. Mao because of her jump layout and choices would be lower, I put her behind Joannie because Joannie beat her at worlds last year and both doubled a jump. Rachael is last just because her PCS aren't as strong and all the ladies you mentioned can all do 6 or 7 triples like Rachael. This is just MPO though, and this is if they were all PERFECT.

I think Japanese Natls showed us that with fair judging Mao and Akiko beat Miki. The ISU judging has seemed so bad this season with many of the top Lady skaters being held up with some very average skating.

I am not sure about your 3x3 criteria and dont remember Miki, Carolina or Joannie completing a 3x3 this season.

Hopefully Vancouver's judging will be better than the awful mess we saw at GP's this season and if Akiko lands 7 clean triples she will be scored ahead of girls making mistakes and landing 2-3-4 triples.

 

[miki88]

If that was the case, I think that Mao would be giving Kim a run for her money, with Kim edging her out just because of the SP.

:yes: That's what I think too. Yuna's rise this year just happens to coincide with Mao's slump, so it's easy for the media and analysts to dismiss their rivalry and to no longer see Mao as a threat. But it's silly to write Mao off since she can be potentially amazing.
Mao's slump is an interesting case. As some people have already said, it is mostly a mental issue on her part. I think it started with motivation problems at the Worlds earlier this year. In an interview, she said her motivation was lacking because she has won all the titles up to that point and achieved her goals of landing 2 axels in a program. Being content with oneself is the last thing an athlete should be especially with a rival like Yuna Kim. However, considering Yuna's continued success and Mao's poor performances at Grand Prix, I don't think it's a motivation problem anymore. The problem lies more in her confidence, which has taken a hit due to her slump IMO. There's also the fact that Mao doesn't seem to be aware that her current strategy of trying something new (landing more axels) is not the best one and that she should strive for consistency more. But perhaps not winning the gold at Olympics (a longtime goal of hers) could finally incite her to make the necessary changes to her strategy. It will be interesting to see how the rivarly plays between Mao and Yuna in the coming years, so I hope Yuna doesn't retire if she wins the gold.

 

[silverlake22]

I think Japanese Natls showed us that with fair judging Mao and Akiko beat Miki. The ISU judging has seemed so bad this season with many of the top Lady skaters being held up with some very average skating.

I am not sure about your 3x3 criteria and dont remember Miki, Carolina or Joannie completing a 3x3 this season.

Hopefully Vancouver's judging will be better than the awful mess we saw at GP's this season and if Akiko lands 7 clean triples she will be scored ahead of girls making mistakes and landing 2-3-4 triples.

The above placement is very unlikely to happen, but I am just saying if they were all PERFECT. So I'm saying Miki would be 2nd if she landed 3lz-3lo and 2a-3t, if they were perfectly rotated and she'd get good GOE because she has strong jumps. Carolina has 3f-3t so if she did that and landed all her jumps and skated with her usual speed, the judges would have a field day and of course she would be that high. Joannie if she landed 7 triples, 8 if she finally did the 3-3, I think would beat Mao because we are in Canada and the only person who has expressiveness rivaling Joannie's is Yuna who obviously will win if she skates perfectly. Plus Joannie technically already has a 3-3 because the 3t-3sal is in sequence. Perfect Mao still only has 6 triples and no lutz, no 3-3, and very little choreography in that bells program, and she doesn't really express herself much so yes I think she will be the lowest of those five.

If Mao could show emotion, do a 3-3, bring back her lutz,change her program to have more choreography, and and attempt 7 triples in the FS, she could easily be second behind Yuna if she was perfect, but unless she does those things I think she will be at a disadvantage.

 

[ayayukiituka]

i think yuna is a little at advantage but not big at advantage.it's no doubt that she was great at grand prix series,but we don't know how she is going to skate in feb. you know she is the only one skater that korean expect gold medal.so maybe she is to feel much pressure. her problem is how she controls it.though other skaters have this problem,too. what i'd love to say is every major skaters have a chance to get gold medal,who could control oneself. oh it is also important.of course who wants to take gold medal have to skate cleanly.

 

[MKFSfan]

^^Joannie already repeats the salchow and lutz. If she added a 3-3, she'd have to skip the solo salchow. Ladies are not going to get 8 triples without a 3ax.

 

[silverlake22]

^^Joannie already repeats the salchow and lutz. If she added a 3-3, she'd have to skip the solo salchow. Ladies are not going to get 8 triples without a 3ax.

Thanks for pointing this out. I guess if she did the 3-3 it would have to be in the short program. If she pulls that off I expect her to be very high in the standings.

Yuna's advantage comes more from the SP than anything. I know Joannie got 70 at SC but that score was inflated, even if everyone else does well, I don't think they can break 70, and Yuna is capable of high 70s. If the scores at the Olympics are high as they usually are, Yuna could potentially get up to a 77 or 78. She could have over a 5 point margin going into the free which makes up for her only having 6 triples in the free. Her GOEs and difficulty are higher than everyone else's though and this is why she will easily win if she is at her best. Yuna popped a jump and got a 65, a score which the likes of Miki, Mao, Joannie would get if they are clean and polished, if anyone besides Yuna pops a jump they are most likely looking at scores in the 50s.

 

[miki88]

I don't remember scores from Olympics being usually high. Skaters don't usually skate their best at Olympics, with some exceptions. Yuna's highest score for SP is a 76. Her programs were pretty much perfect when she got that score. So 78 is pushing it especially considering the pressure she will have. I think other skaters can reach 70, if they skate to their potential. I am not saying Yuna doesn't still have that advantage, but she isn't so far ahead. In my opinion, her LP is not as good as her SP, so I hope she skates well in her LP and not win the gold mostly based on a phenomenal SP.

 

[Phoenix347]

I took a look at the protocols from Japan nationals, Skate America and TEB and cooked up highest number possible if both Yuna and Mao executed everything clean and got good GOE for every element within reason in the currently planned elements. For Yuna, I used her GOE from the actual competitions (averagish) and for Mao somewhat less than the Japan nationals but way higher than what she was getting internationally and I gave Moa slightly higher PCS and here is the result:

(I gave them highest levels for all non-jump elements except for step sequence, which was 3 and gave Mao higher GOE for step sequence.)

For SP: Mao --> TES 40.90 PCS 32.40 total 73.30
Yuna --> TES 44.90 PCS 32.28 total 77.18

For LP: Mao --> TES 70.65 PCS 66.56 total 137.21, SP+LP = 210.51
Yuna --> TES 75.85 PCS 66.40 total 142.25, SP+LP = 219.43

So if they both executed both every element clean and got historically reasonable (but on the higher side) GOE's for all the elements, Yuna would have an edge in both SP and LP. However, if Mao changed the 2A+2T in the LP that she skated at Japan nationals to 3A+2T and executed and got good GOE for it, she would get 141.91 for the LP and her total would be 215.21. The SP would give Yuna the edge.

So even if she had two 3A's in her LP and executed them well, she would still probably lose to a clean and well executed Yuna. Both scores would be out-of-this world scores for the ladies and not very likely. No woman have ever landed 3 clean 3A's in a competition before. Remember, this is an idealized scenario which would never happen in real life.

 

[miki88]

I took a look at the protocols from Japan nationals, Skate America and TEB and cooked up highest number possible if both Yuna and Mao executed everything clean and got good GOE for every element within reason in the currently planned elements. For Yuna, I used her GOE from the actual competitions (averagish) and for Mao somewhat less than the Japan nationals but way higher than what she was getting internationally and I gave Moa slightly higher PCS and here is the result:

(I gave them highest levels for all non-jump elements except for step sequence, which was 3 and gave Mao higher GOE for step sequence.)

For SP: Mao --> TES 40.90 PCS 32.40 total 73.30
Yuna --> TES 44.90 PCS 32.28 total 77.18

For LP: Mao --> TES 70.65 PCS 66.56 total 137.21, SP+LP = 210.51
Yuna --> TES 75.85 PCS 66.40 total 142.25, SP+LP = 219.43

So if they both executed both every element clean and got historically reasonable (but on the higher side) GOE's for all the elements, Yuna would have an edge in both SP and LP. However, if Mao changed the 2A+2T in the LP that she skated at Japan nationals to 3A+2T and executed and got good GOE for it, she would get 141.91 for the LP and her total would be 215.21. The SP would give Yuna the edge.

So even if she had two 3A's in her LP and executed them well, she would still probably lose to a clean and well executed Yuna. Both scores would be out-of-this world scores for the ladies and not very likely. No woman have ever landed 3 clean 3A's in a competition before. Remember, this is an idealized scenario which would never happen in real life.

Wow that would be out of this world I think everyone agrees that if Yuna skates her best she'll win because her potential score is just higher, which is smart strategy on her part. But what I don't hope will happen is a similar scenario from the Grand Prix Final and SA where she doesn't skate two clean programs but still wins because of her edge in the SP. This is a likely scenario under COP where it is all about the math. Sigh.. I wish they bring back the 6.0 system when it was more about clean skating.

 

[Phoenix347]

Wow that would be out of this world I think everyone agrees that if Yuna skates her best she'll win because her potential score is just higher, which is smart strategy on her part. But what I don't hope will happen is a similar scenario from the Grand Prix Final and SA where she doesn't skate two clean programs but still wins because of her edge in the SP. This is a likely scenario under COP where it is all about the math. Sigh.. I wish they bring back the 6.0 system when it was more about clean skating.

If you remember, Yuna was actually in 2nd in the SP at GPF and had to win the FS to win the competition so your scenario would only apply to SA. Also, in the 2009 worlds FS, Yuna had over 68 points for PCS even though she flubbed the 3S and had an invalid spin element at the end! However I don't think the Gershwin program will ever get that high of PCS because I just don't think it's as an exciting of a program as Scheherazade. Compare that to 2007 Cup of Russia where she got 72.9 points for TES and 60.80 points for PCS (which was probably too low in comparison.) That was on of her rare 7 triples program (it had a 3Lo.) Should be a very interesting Olympics. I would love to see lights out programs from both Yuna and Mao. Wouldn't that be something?

 

[herro]

I took a look at the protocols from Japan nationals, Skate America and TEB and cooked up highest number possible if both Yuna and Mao executed everything clean and got good GOE for every element within reason in the currently planned elements. For Yuna, I used her GOE from the actual competitions (averagish) and for Mao somewhat less than the Japan nationals but way higher than what she was getting internationally and I gave Moa slightly higher PCS and here is the result:

(I gave them highest levels for all non-jump elements except for step sequence, which was 3 and gave Mao higher GOE for step sequence.)

For SP: Mao --> TES 40.90 PCS 32.40 total 73.30
Yuna --> TES 44.90 PCS 32.28 total 77.18

For LP: Mao --> TES 70.65 PCS 66.56 total 137.21, SP+LP = 210.51
Yuna --> TES 75.85 PCS 66.40 total 142.25, SP+LP = 219.43

So if they both executed both every element clean and got historically reasonable (but on the higher side) GOE's for all the elements, Yuna would have an edge in both SP and LP. However, if Mao changed the 2A+2T in the LP that she skated at Japan nationals to 3A+2T and executed and got good GOE for it, she would get 141.91 for the LP and her total would be 215.21. The SP would give Yuna the edge.

So even if she had two 3A's in her LP and executed them well, she would still probably lose to a clean and well executed Yuna. Both scores would be out-of-this world scores for the ladies and not very likely. No woman have ever landed 3 clean 3A's in a competition before. Remember, this is an idealized scenario which would never happen in real life.

Wow, thanks so much for your analysis Phoenix347! Exactly what I was looking for when I originally brought up the question. :agree:

 

[silverlake22]

I took a look at the protocols from Japan nationals, Skate America and TEB and cooked up highest number possible if both Yuna and Mao executed everything clean and got good GOE for every element within reason in the currently planned elements. For Yuna, I used her GOE from the actual competitions (averagish) and for Mao somewhat less than the Japan nationals but way higher than what she was getting internationally and I gave Moa slightly higher PCS and here is the result:

(I gave them highest levels for all non-jump elements except for step sequence, which was 3 and gave Mao higher GOE for step sequence.)

For SP: Mao --> TES 40.90 PCS 32.40 total 73.30
Yuna --> TES 44.90 PCS 32.28 total 77.18

For LP: Mao --> TES 70.65 PCS 66.56 total 137.21, SP+LP = 210.51
Yuna --> TES 75.85 PCS 66.40 total 142.25, SP+LP = 219.43

So if they both executed both every element clean and got historically reasonable (but on the higher side) GOE's for all the elements, Yuna would have an edge in both SP and LP. However, if Mao changed the 2A+2T in the LP that she skated at Japan nationals to 3A+2T and executed and got good GOE for it, she would get 141.91 for the LP and her total would be 215.21. The SP would give Yuna the edge.

So even if she had two 3A's in her LP and executed them well, she would still probably lose to a clean and well executed Yuna. Both scores would be out-of-this world scores for the ladies and not very likely. No woman have ever landed 3 clean 3A's in a competition before. Remember, this is an idealized scenario which would never happen in real life.

Good analysis, and yes those are HUGE scores! Mao usually gets good GOEs on her axel jumps, but when something is UR normally the judges will give a skater negative GOEs for the jump/combination, also I don't think Mao will be getting very good GOEs for her flip and loop jumps, which is reflected in the marks she gets from the judges internationally. Is there any way you could figure out what the score would be for a perfect Miki (with 3lz-3lo and 2a-3t) and Joannie too? I'm interested to see how they would stack up against these scores.

 

[Nadia01]

i think yuna is a little at advantage but not big at advantage.it's no doubt that she was great at grand prix series,but we don't know how she is going to skate in feb. you know she is the only one skater that korean expect gold medal.so maybe she is to feel much pressure. her problem is how she controls it.though other skaters have this problem,too. what i'd love to say is every major skaters have a chance to get gold medal,who could control oneself. oh it is also important.of course who wants to take gold medal have to skate cleanly.

Uhh...Korea has tons of other skaters they expect the OGM from: their entire short track team for example.