Hi Wallylutz I am just curious about your speculation that Mao will try 3f/3l as combo jump and 3z as the solo jump in her sp. Just citing her attempt of 3f/3l, in one competition and 3z in another and tht she is a :Japanese” does not exactly have me convinced.
Actually, they are from the same competition, not two separate competitions. The 3F+3Lo and 3Lz SP layout was her standard layout in the 2008-2009 season which means she tried it on more than one occasion, including the 2009 Worlds. She consistently tries the 3F+3Lo combo, almost always managed to complete the rotations, at least on the surface of it. However, the Tech Panel had been less willing to credit the 3Lo as fully rotated except perhaps the 2009 Worlds for which she did credit for the combo.
BTW Wally, a while back you have suggested 2 jump layouts for Mao’s lp (considering her strength and weakness) i
1) Triple Flip + Triple Toe
2) Triple Lutz
3) Triple Loop + Double Loop + Double Loop
4) Triple Axel (Second Half)
5) Triple Flip (Second Half)
6) Double Axel + Double Axel (Second Half)
7) Triple Loop (Second Half)
The second layout
1)3F+3T
2)3Lz
3)FSSp4
4)3S
5)SpSq4
6)3A
7)3Lo+3Lo
8)FCoSp4
9)3F
10)2A+2A+2A+SEQ
11)SlSt4
12)CCoSp4
Keeping in mind that these are lp jump layouts (and skaters usually are more willing to take some risk in the lp) no where in your suggestion do I see 3f/3l. Do you seriously think Mao can pull off 3f/3l without the 3l downgrade?
Not going for the 3F+3Lo combo was a recommendation based on risk management, it doesn't mean she won't or can't try it. Don't mind my recommendation, I don't think Mao Asada listens to anyone except herself, she comes across as a very stubborn person and I also don't think she will try just one Triple Axel in her LP. She had completed 3F+3Lo without being downgraded, e.g. 2009 Worlds How consistent is it going to be? Nobody knows for sure. Despite that 3Lo combo only offers 1 point of BV more than the 3T combo, you see all these Japanese girls, like Ando and Asada all went for it even though most other people would think that the 1 point difference is not worth the risk. Don't try to understand the logic, there was no good explanation for Takahashi's 4F attempt at the 2010 Worlds either as he risked a disastrous fall and hand the Gold to a less-than-perfect Patrick Chan. Japanese skaters tend to have this obsession with the principle of "no pain = no gain" to an extreme. That's why Ando kept doing 3/3 even though she continues to UR them. In an interview, she was quoted saying if she doesn't do 3/3, people back home won't believe she stands a chance to win. On the other hand, if she tries 3/3, people back home would automatically assumes she could win. So regardless whether she will be able to get credit for it even 50% of the time, do expect her to try it no matter what. It would be uncharacteristic if she doesn't try to shoot the moon.
Do you seriously think she can fix her flutz and get a real lutz? If her chance of pulling off 3f/3l AND 3z in a sp (required elements) is not big, then the theoretical >6 points BV advantage you have calculated for Mao is not realistic. I actually think Mathman’s 3f/3t and 3l plan for Mao is much more realistic. That gives her less than 2 point BV advantage
Unfortunately, I do not have a crystal ball. I wouldn't be able to tell you how likely she will be able to land those jumps. What I can tell you is she will most likely try them no matter what. The theoretical BV differential is still there, it wouldn't be diminished by the higher risk - you are confusing two different concepts. Mathman's calc was based on 3F/2T, not 3F/3T. Using 3F/3T and 3Lo instead, the advantage drops from 6.5 to about 4.5, still significant. Mao Asada did not receive that many edge calls. Her problem with the Lutz seems to be getting enough lift on her outside edge take off and rotate the jump. When she does, she usually gets the edge right and all her rotations.
Hi Wallylutz
About poor Yuna needs to retire, come on, are you underestimating Yuna’s potential? Didn’t Orser say 3a is in their plan?
No, that was never part of their plan as far as I know. Orser believes there are other things that Yu Na can strive to achieve still when asked about what other goals he could set for his skater after winning the Gold in Vancouver. When Yu-Na was asked about it, from a confused reporter, she ignored and side-step the question completely.
For those who think ISU is sacrificing Yuna for Mao? WHY? I would think for the sake of TV ratings and the sports they want Yuna to stay 4 more yrs. OTOH Mao will stay for 4 yrs. None of you (who are advocating this ISU conspiracy) have answered that question yet.
Because this question is potentially very explosive, I don't think many people are comfortable talking about this here on the record. Don't expect me to talk about this here or anywhere publicly, sorry, I just won't. I don't think you should assume the lack of discussion or silence on this question as a lack of ideas because that would be naive.
Last but not least, and I am not accusing you of being racist, b/c I seriously don’t think you are, what is it about being “Japanese” in your opinion that makes Mao take a seemingly “unwise” path of going for the riskiest elements even though in most ppl’s opinion that risks OUTSWEIGHS the potential rewards.
I already explained it above. In short, you should ask yourself, why would Daisuke Takahashi go for the Quad Flip when he obviously didn't need it? Why is kamikaze such a shocking concept to Americans? You would understand if you are actually familiar with Japanese thinking. Was the 1 point difference to go for the 3Lz or 3F + 3Lo combo worth the high risk of the 3Lo combo? But why is that only those Japanese girls and only Japanese are doing it? Can you think of another girl doing 3Lz/3F + 3Lo combo
in the SP in the last 20 years who is not Japanese? It certainly isn't because they need that extra 1 point over the 3T, so why? I think once you find the answer to that, you'll answer your own question.
Actually, a much better and more guaranteed way for Mao to gain major points is to loosen up on the downgrades for her jumps.
