U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

[Mathman]

Really? I thought a commentator said that her Prelude was more enjoyable with the music turned off

True, but that just shows that the music was bad. Look at it this way. What if you had to listen to the music without watching Mao. That would be worse. So,...therefore...

where was I going with this?

Anyway, back to Rachael versus Kanako, I see from the protocols that the judges did give Rachael the higher score in Interpretation. But lower in Choreography. So I guess Lori Nichol wasn't quite up to par this time, but Rachael nonetheless saved the day with her natural musicality. :yes:

In fact, Rachael got the highest Interpretation score of anyone except Carolina Kostner. Kostner certainly was in a different league from the rest of the ladies in terms of having long graceful limbs and in moving expressively across the ice. (I'm not so sure that this counts as musical interpretation, but it is very pretty.)

 

[miki88]

The actual piece Rachmaninoff composed isn't bad, but the selections TAT chose was bad. I still don't get why she chose the most empty parts of the piece for a program, because it without the lyrical parts, there isn't really any meaning to the music anymore. TAT should have kept the original piano version, which is hauntingly beautiful.

 

[prettykeys]

The actual piece Rachmaninoff composed isn't bad, but the selections TAT chose was bad. I still don't get why she chose the most empty parts of the piece for a program, because it without the lyrical parts, there isn't really any meaning to the music anymore. TAT should have kept the original piano version, which is hauntingly beautiful.

Yes. I think perhaps Tarasova has more experience working with male skaters, so her instincts went in that direction rather than what lady Mao would have worked better with.

True, but that just shows that the music was bad. Look at it this way. What if you had to listen to the music without watching Mao. That would be worse. So,...therefore...

where was I going with this?

hehe...actually I don't think the music was bad, but as a figure skating program choice, it was. I believe the commentator I was thinking of was actually Kurt Browning who said that. He proves again he is such a fair and sensitive guy. He said it in the context of defending Mao, when another commentator was stating that Mao was lacking in the expressivity department, and he responded with something like "I'm sorry, but Mao is awesome." And then explains that her skills are best appreciated with that Bells turned off. His point: It's not Mao, it's that music. Hmm, so maybe you're right, I shouldn't call it an "interpretive failure", but it shouldn't be called an "interpretive success", either. Just an impossible choice of music.

And...as I wrote about Rachael in the Skate America Ladies' Free Skate thread, I was pleasantly surprised. I do think her Choreo and Interpretation are much improved this season.

 

[R.D.]

Unless you are Michelle Kwan. Then you can make a program out of nothing at all. Here's my triple Lutz, here's my double Axel, here is the address to send my medal to (wait, let me carve in in the ice for you.) Now that's interpretation!

You Kwaniac, you

 

[burntBREAD]

Yes. I think perhaps Tarasova has more experience working with male skaters, so her instincts went in that direction rather than what lady Mao would have worked better with.

Didn't TAT choreograph the 2007-08 SP (Ladies in Lavender) for Mao? That was very nice and lyrical...but I find that TAT's choreography is hit or miss.

Also, wasn't that cut of Bells the music TAT used for Michelle's supposed FS for the 2006 Olympics?

 

[Mathman]

Also, wasn't that cut of Bells the music TAT used for Michelle's supposed FS for the 2006 Olympics?

Michelle never performed it, so we don't know (at least I don't) if it was the same cut or not. If any lady -- I agree with prettykeys that it might work better for a man -- could summon the gravitas necessary to carry it off, that lady would be Michelle.

Like Miki888 said, the straight piano version would have been much better vehicle than that lugubrious arrangement for full orchestra.

 

[Olympia]

The actual piece Rachmaninoff composed isn't bad, but the selections TAT chose was bad. I still don't get why she chose the most empty parts of the piece for a program, because it without the lyrical parts, there isn't really any meaning to the music anymore. TAT should have kept the original piano version, which is hauntingly beautiful.

Over in the thread about classic men's short programs, someone posted Jeffrey Buttle's program done to, as you say, the actual piece Rachmaninoff composed, with all the variations of mood and tempo. It's a glorious program. And I think, as Kurt and Mathman do, Mao is awesome enough that she would have made a grand statement of that piece.

Now that we have YouTube to refer to, I've been hunting up pieces that take my breath away. Generally they're a combination of technical command and artistic achievement, such as Michelle's Lyra Angelica and Yagudin's Revolutionary Etude, and others. I'm happy to see that there are still such programs being presented, by the likes of Asada and Takahashi. Alas, no lady currently skating for the U.S. has achieved a program like this. Maybe later on....Fingers are crossed!

 

[R.D.]

A little tidbit about Flatt on IN (for some reason, it deletes my post if there is a link, so just take it from me that I didn't make this up):

Skating to "Slaughter on Tenth Avenue," Flatt was near-clean; her only major errors were under rotating the second jump in her opening double Axel, triple toe loop combination, as well as a triple Lutz. She earned 111.84, several points higher than at her silver-medal performance at NHK, and ended with 162.86 points.

"It certainly still hurts a lot, but I was just blocking out the pain and focusing on what I needed to do to get the job done," Flatt said. "It got worse by the end of the program. I just had to push through it.

"Mainly the pain is in my front tendon, it starts on the bottom of my foot and goes all the way up to my knee, so it's pretty uncomfortable."

Since then, she's pursued treatment including "icing, ultra-sound, rest and elevation...it's been an interesting process here.

"I knew I trained really solid programs at home and I knew I needed to rely on my training, which is something I didn't do in the short. Today, I focused on getting into the choreography and getting into the ice."

I have to admit to being a little worried by her statement about pushing through the pain. I know most Oly-level athletes deal with this to a certain extent, but if it's a legit injury, it's always best to let it heal before it gets worse.

 

[Nadine]

I honestly don't care whom wins, as long as she skates C-L-E-A-N first & foremost, and hopefully she skates a 7-triple LP (shades of Michelle Kwan).

2008 US Nationals is the last time practically ALL of the ladies skated clean and went all out; that still stands as my favorite Nationals.

My guess is either Rachael or Mirai. Both would be worthy champions. I won't diss one in order to elevate the other, as I am a fan of both. And I am proud of the USFSA for picking Rachael as a champion last year because she does not fit the stereotypical *mold* of what a ladies skater should look like. They went against conventionality, now I wish the international judges would do the same thing.


GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO USA arty:

 

[Trewyn]

^^Well... Mirai fell on her 2A at 2008 US Nats, but I agree it was the best Nats of the past years. The top four were all very impressive; I think at least the top 3 all landed triple-triples.

I'm still hoping Ashley will finally pull it together and become Nats Champ. But I feel as if her programs this year are weak and we've yet to see solid jumping from her.

 

[Layfan]

^^Well... Mirai fell on her 2A at 2008 US Nats, but I agree it was the best Nats of the past years. The top four were all very impressive; I think at least the top 3 all landed triple-triples.

I'm still hoping Ashley will finally pull it together and become Nats Champ. But I feel as if her programs this year are weak and we've yet to see solid jumping from her.

Ironic that it it was the year the USA lost its third spot because it couldn't send all of its best skaters to worlds. What a bummer.

 

[R.D.]

Well, 5 down, 1 more to go.

Here's an interesting post at FSU highlighting the US ladies ranked by highest score:

http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showpost.php?p=2956266&postcount=801

So Wagner has gone from meh-ville to 3rd highest score among American ladies, behind JGP Gao and Czisny at SC.

Not sure if the scores are really directly comparable like that, especially since JGP and SGP scores are mixed in, but still interesting to look and gauge.

It's POSSIBLE we could see a newcomer on the Nats podium, but I tell you, if Wagner/Nagasu/Flatt can put it all together, the others haven't a chance.

 

[janetfan]

Well, 5 down, 1 more to go.

Here's an interesting post at FSU highlighting the US ladies ranked by highest score:

http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showpost.php?p=2956266&postcount=801

So Wagner has gone from meh-ville to 3rd highest score among American ladies, behind JGP Gao and Czisny at SC.

Not sure if the scores are really directly comparable like that, especially since JGP and SGP scores are mixed in, but still interesting to look and gauge.

It's POSSIBLE we could see a newcomer on the Nats podium, but I tell you, if Wagner/Nagasu/Flatt can put it all together, the others haven't a chance.

I disagree - and if Gao can hold it together, let alone a clean Agnes - the top three could be in trouble.

 

[R.D.]

I disagree - and if Gao can hold it together, let alone a clean Agnes - the top three could be in trouble.

I don't get the Zawadki hype at all. I can see why people are gaga over Gao- I see some potential, although I will wait and see if she is for real first- but as for Agnes, at COR I was quite underwhelmed by her. Also at SC.

 

[burntBREAD]

I don't get the Zawadki hype at all. I can see why people are gaga over Gao- I see some potential, although I will wait and see if she is for real first- but as for Agnes, at COR I was quite underwhelmed by her. Also at SC.

Me, either (right now). She seems like a solid, all-around skater but as of now it is quite evident that she has her own battles with nerves. I'm not sure what to think of Gao right now, obviously her jumps are quite good but I just can't get over how mediocre (and sometimes bad) her spins are compared to the many US ladies with very nice spins (Czisny, Nagasu, Wagner, Zhang, Zawadzki)... though obviously in this system spins aren't worth too much (they should be worth more!). Also, the Gao-hyping is really grating on me, unfortunately...

 

[janetfan]

I don't get the Zawadki hype at all. I can see why people are gaga over Gao- I see some potential, although I will wait and see if she is for real first- but as for Agnes, at COR I was quite underwhelmed by her. Also at SC.

I disagree and think her sr debuts went OK. Her strength is like Flatts - nailing jumps. So she didn;t skate clean. On the other hand Agnes's jumps are twice as big as Flatts - so in the future, a clean skate could get her some decent GOE.
Flatt will never get that because her jumps are small and barely rotated. But she sure is good at keeping off the ice.

Maybe it passed you by - but check out a 3Lz from Agnes. Only Yuna appears to get that high and cover as much ice. And Agnes is one of only few girls who doesn't appear to have edge problems on her lutz.
Of course it helps if you land it

 

[R.D.]

Also, the Gao-hyping is really grating on me, unfortunately...

That's quite unfortunate. I know of one poster in particular that won't stop hyping her to the stars and quite frankly I'm sick of it. I want to give her a chance, I really do.

 

[janetfan]

That's quite unfortunate. I know of one poster in particular that won't stop hyping her to the stars and quite frankly I'm sick of it. I want to give her a chance, I really do.

I don't see any Gao hyping out of the ordinary. Skaters have fans and fans like to say nice things about their favorites.
Christina is a work in progress. We will see her soon at the junior GPF and then at Natls. Maybe she will do good or maybe have an off night. Anything is possible - at the moment Chrstina appears to easily have the best 3x3 of any USA Lady.

Like Agnes, she is a late bloomer and not nearly as experienced at competing at big events as Nagasu, Flatt and Zhang.

No rush, but i suspect by next season they will be pushing our current group out of the way.
This season at Natls is a possibilty as well........

What is the point of posting if all we say is " I will wait and see" ....
I have nothing against enthusiastic fans. And that Gao booster knows her stuff - her predictions are pretty good except for Ksenia...

 

[Nadine]

Well, 5 down, 1 more to go.

Here's an interesting post at FSU highlighting the US ladies ranked by highest score:

http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showpost.php?p=2956266&postcount=801

So Wagner has gone from meh-ville to 3rd highest score among American ladies, behind JGP Gao and Czisny at SC.

Not sure if the scores are really directly comparable like that, especially since JGP and SGP scores are mixed in, but still interesting to look and gauge.

It's POSSIBLE we could see a newcomer on the Nats podium, but I tell you, if Wagner/Nagasu/Flatt can put it all together, the others haven't a chance.

R.D., this poster at SkateFans said it best for me when it comes to comparing scores from different competitions:

http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/SkateFans/message/199388 *right on!* :agree:



Now as regards Rachael Flatt, she has what Michelle Kwan used to have, that extremely rare ability to consistently skate clean 7-triple LPs no matter the pressure. Potential is potential is potential, it means **** if you don't have the mental toughness to back it up. I can count on two hands ALL the gals that were *supposed* to knock off MK throughout her 10-yr. reign at Nationals ~ Sasha Cohen, Naomi Nari Nam, Nicole Bobek, Sarah Hughes, Angela Nikodinov, etc. etc. etc. (add name).

Yes, some were better spinners than her, had larger jumps, better toe point, et al, but she's the only one that could consistently lay it down when it counted again & again & again ad nauseam. So if I were a skater and there was one thing I wanted more than all others it would be to skate consistently on a regular basis ala MK. That ability made her America's Most Decorated Female Figure Skater in History, and a legend.

And thus far Rachael Flatt is the only clutch skater I can see that comes even close to Michelle's ability, and that says a lot, leastways for me.

But as I said in my prior post, I honestly will be pleased with whomever wins 2011 US Nationals, as long as she skates a clean LP (preferably with 7 triples), which will set her up well for Worlds (she HAS to be on her A-game to score well amongst all the others across the world who are also vying for medals!). Now whomever that person is, be it Rachael or Mirai or one of the up & comers, so be it, as long as she skates a clean LP (& SP! of course).

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO USA!!!!! arty:

 

[Jammers]

Its just too bad that the most consistent american skater the last couple years is the one that has the least potential to become a champion. I even like Ashley better then Rachael she skates with more speed and pizazz and has better presence on the ice. Rachael might be consistent as i said but unlike Michelle she doesn't have the overall skills to win like Michelle did. If Michelle skated clean she usually won but Rachael still needs helps even when she skates clean.