What do you want to see at Worlds ...Ladies

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Look at the synopsis below. Can anyone see anything special in Worlds?

We haven't seen Yuna since WHEN? and was she at her BEST?
Mao was GOOD in her home Nationals. What else?
Miki is an example of perfect Rules and Regulations including Definitions.
Czisny won the GPF. Can she continue winning?
Carolina was the silver medalist at GPF and also Euros.

I would suggest we look for the makeup of the Technical Panel, and the nationalities of the Panel of Judges.

 

[Layfan]

1. Yes. Unless you believe that the technical judge was too harsh on Nakano's URs, but those were what cost her.

2. Yes. Given that she won silver, and Asada had her least impressive skates since becoming a senior, it's likely that anywhere Rochette would've earned a medal.

3. Yes. That was a terribly skated event.

Layfan, Murakami had that terrible free at NHK

That's true. In my predictions, I sort of had Murakami making enough mistakes that Rachael would end up ahead of her. Plus, IMO, Alissa and Carolina should beat Kanako IF IF they are clean. But the way Miki88 put it, you really can't count Murakami out. She has a difficult jump layout and a lot of charisma, even if her skating is a little wild and unpolished, to my eye. And at GPF, she was, shockingly, the only Japanese lady to medal. Anyhow, I see her as a medal contender, not a favorite.

Look at the synopsis below. Can anyone see anything special in Worlds?

We haven't seen Yuna since WHEN? and was she at her BEST?
Mao was GOOD in her home Nationals. What else?
Miki is an example of perfect Rules and Regulations including Definitions.
Czisny won the GPF. Can she continue 'winning?
Carolina was the silver medalist at GPF and also Euros.

I would suggest we look for the makeup of the Technical Panel, and the nationalities of the Panel of Judges.

Well, you never know where special moments are going to come from in figure skating. I remember we all expected the ladies to be an uninspiring splatfest at the Olympics last year. Mao was falling apart (until nationals) Miki and Joannie were up and down, the American and Euro ladies were meh. Turns out it was one of the best skated ladies Olympic competition ever and the top four ladies certainly gave me special moments.

This year it's post Olympics so I don't expect as much .. but I can think of several special moments I'm hoping for.

 

[miki88]

Look at the synopsis below. Can anyone see anything special in Worlds?

We haven't seen Yuna since WHEN? and was she at her BEST?
Mao was GOOD in her home Nationals. What else?
Miki is an example of perfect Rules and Regulations including Definitions.
Czisny won the GPF. Can she continue winning?
Carolina was the silver medalist at GPF and also Euros.

Frankly, Yuna doesn't need to be at her best to medal. And the 4CC performances of Mao and Miki were better than Czisny and Carolina's at their respective events. And I do prefer Czisny's style to Miki's but the latter has more technical content.

ITA with what Layfan said. Worlds is a special competition. It's the most prestigious one after the Olympics, so skaters are usually more driven to show their best. I think a few surprises are bound to happen this year.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Frankly, Yuna doesn't need to be at her best to medal. And the 4CC performances of Mao and Miki were better than Czisny and Carolina's at their respective events. And I do prefer Czisny's style to Miki's but the latter has more technical content.

Those are opinions. No problem.

Layfan: Murakami has two Flips in her program - one gets some points for a Lutz which didn't happen; the other full credit for a Flip. for me, that is deliberate and worse than an underrotation.

 

[Layfan]

Those are opinions. No problem.

Layfan: Murakami has two Flips in her program - one gets some points for a Lutz which didn't happen; the other full credit for a Flip. for me, that is deliberate and worse than an underrotation.

Are you talking about a wrong edge take off on her Lutz? She certainly isn't the only lady with that problem. In any case, I'm not saying I'm her biggest fan - her entries into her jumps look awkward even to an amateur viewer like me - but I still think you can't count her out and the judges seem to love her.

 

[ljaeren]

I want Rachael and Alissa to get 3 spots back for the us ladies. Its soo sad that Mirai Doesn't get to go to worlds

 

[breeze]

What I want to see..

* Laura on the podium again (preferably with more than 3 triples!)

* Yuna doing 2 clean programs for the 2nd time in her career

* Alissa proving that she didn't peak too early in the season

* Carolina's 3F-3T

* Miki finishing the season with no major mistake in her LP in any competition

* A lip or flutz getting 0 points for violation of Zayak rule
(I don't have any skater particular in mind. I just hate seeing 3 same triple jumps. )

 

[NMURA]

1. Yes. Unless you believe that the technical judge was too harsh on Nakano's URs, but those were what cost her.

2. Yes. Given that she won silver, and Asada had her least impressive skates since becoming a senior, it's likely that anywhere Rochette would've earned a medal.

3. Yes. That was a terribly skated event.

Layfan, Murakami had that terrible free at NHK

Thanx for your personal opnion. I think the only conditional "yes" is Kostner's case. She gained full base values and that's very valuable under COP. Rochette was blatantly held up in the SP. She should be under Ando and that's enough for missing the podium. The ISU needed some one from the Olympics host country as a medal contender. In this year, Ando and Asada can be considered as co-favorites. Asian domination is almost inevitable. Flatt can be the only possible spoiler, when both Kim and Murakami falter.

 

[mcc]

Thanx for your personal opnion. I think the only conditional "yes" is Kostner's case. She gained full base values and that's very valuable under COP. Rochette was blatantly held up in the SP. She should be under Ando and that's enough for missing the podium. The ISU needed some one from the Olympics host country as a medal contender. In this year, Ando and Asada can be considered as co-favorites. Asian domination is almost inevitable. Flatt can be the only possible spoiler, when both Kim and Murakami falter.

ISU needed someone...? Surely it was a perfect joke for Asada to get silver medal at Vancouver. Jokes happened again at 4cc this year when Ando got huge GOE and PCS in painfully slow and plain performance and Asada gained +GOE on two footed and underrotated jumps. It would be interesting to see how THEY force tech panel & judges to close their eyes on Japanese girls' flaws and how to damage Yuna at Worlds. Poor JSF, such a long and big effort with huge money has never overcome Yuna.

 

[miki88]

Oh dear here we go again with the same arguments over and over.

 

[NMURA]

Yeah, Koreans are really upset with 4CC results.

I remember Kim herself "declared" to participate worlds a few days after TEB. Wasn't it too early to be so optimistic? She'd better wait after 4CC anyway. Brace yourself. I'm pretty sure any of Kim's past performances except that of Vancouver are not enough to win in Tokyo.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

What I want to see..

* A lip or flutz getting 0 points for violation of Zayak rule
(I don't have any skater particular in mind. I just hate seeing 3 same triple jumps. )

I agree also. When they use the term wrong edge takeoff they are trying avoid the Zayak rule. The Definition of a Lutz and Flip by its take-off is much too difficult for skaters who do not practice the proper jumps. There are two Flips or two Lutzes in the program and each one has to get 0 points. The Technique of the competitor is overlooked resulting in duplicate jumps. I wonder how they arrived at giving a 'no named' jump partial credit?

 

[NMURA]

Based on the new rules, Kim's (total) TES of past competitions would be like this.

Kim 2009 worlds 94.6
Kim 2009 TEB 99.2
Kim Olympics 107.7

Ando 2011 4CC 108.7
Asada 2011 4CC 103.4

We can say Ando has hit the limit with her current jump layout. In fact it's more like outrageous than generous, something comparable to Kim at Vancouver. Asada could add 8-9 points in the TES if she skates cleanly. All triples FS would be a strong appeal to the judges and the PCS booster. To counter Asada, Kim will need the extremely difficult 3loop. If she doesn't fall or pop, Kim can narrow the base value gap with Asada to 6 points. But don't expect huge PCS advantages. IT'S IN TOKYO. In cases of "away" competitions, you cannot win by PCS only. Even for the case of controversial Skate America, Murakami's TES was a little higher than Flatt.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Thanx for your personal opnion. I think the only conditional "yes" is Kostner's case. She gained full base values and that's very valuable under COP. Rochette was blatantly held up in the SP. She should be under Ando and that's enough for missing the podium. The ISU needed some one from the Olympics host country as a medal contender. In this year, Ando and Asada can be considered as co-favorites. Asian domination is almost inevitable. Flatt can be the only possible spoiler, when both Kim and Murakami falter.

Rochette's PCS should've been ahead of Ando's, rather unquestionably. And again, why do you think Asada would've caught Rochette if Rochette was fourth in the SP? She beat Asada in the LP as well. Ando's PCS have been blatantly held up for years.

 

[lowtherlore]

Yeah, Koreans are really upset with 4CC results.

I remember Kim herself "declared" to participate worlds a few days after TEB. Wasn't it too early to be so optimistic? She'd better wait after 4CC anyway. Brace yourself. I'm pretty sure any of Kim's past performances except that of Vancouver are not enough to win in Tokyo.

No, it was well before the start of the season (in July) that Yu-Na said she would skip the GP series and go to Worlds. You can express whatever opinion you might have, but please, and this is not the first time I’m saying this to you, DON'T DISTORT THE FACTS to suit your purpose or argument, Nomura-San.

 

[Lucky Star]

To counter Asada, Kim will need the extremely difficult 3loop. If she doesn't fall or pop, Kim can narrow the base value gap with Asada to 6 points. But don't expect huge PCS advantages. IT'S IN TOKYO. In cases of "away" competitions, you cannot win by PCS only. Even for the case of controversial Skate America, Murakami's TES was a little higher than Flatt.

It's not only about the jump content, it's about the quality of the jumps too. Asada's jumps at the 4CC weren't perfect at all, some were borderline (depends on the technical caller, next time she can get < for that), flutz. And even if she rotates her jumps, Kim (of course if she's in good shape) will get better GOE and she has 3-3 wich is a big question for Asada so far. Yes, Mao has her 3A, but I'm not so sure it's enough to beat Yuna. So I expect it to be close.
I don't really care which one of them will win as long as they come 1st and 2nd, I like both. I only want to see great performances and fair judging

 

[FlattFan]

Based on the new rules, Kim's (total) TES of past competitions would be like this.

Kim 2009 worlds 94.6
Kim 2009 TEB 99.2
Kim Olympics 107.7

Ando 2011 4CC 108.7
Asada 2011 4CC 103.4

We can say Ando has hit the limit with her current jump layout. In fact it's more like outrageous than generous, something comparable to Kim at Vancouver.

What are you smoking? Ando's TES should be about the same as Kim's TES. Both girls had 6 triples. Ando backloaded most of her jumps. If anything, her TES should be higher, and is higher. Kim should win on PCS. How is Ando's TES outrageous?

 

[Serious Business]

I decided to crunch the numbers myself on Yuna vs. Miki on technical element score. I'm limiting this analysis to just jumps and only with regards to the base marks. I am assuming there are no edge calls or URs (indeed both skaters have steered clear of those consistently now that Miki is skipping the 3flip):

Based on the jumps she landed at 4cc, Miki got 16.2 on jumps in the SP, and 44.36 on jumps on the FS.

With Yuna, it's hard to predict what jump layout she will use, since the new rules this season negates the jump layout she used for the past few seasons. So what I did was a very straight up substitution: instead of doing a 2axel/2toe/2loop (which would be one 2axel too many) I subbed in a 2lutz for the 2axel. This is by no means the most points she can achieve with jumps she's regularly doing, but it's one that most closely resembles her past jump layout and is within her capabilities. On jumps, Yuna would get 18.7 in the SP and 43.69 in the FS.

Miki's jumps in total: 60.56

Yuna's jumps in total: 62.39

Doing an extra triple in the SP is a huge technical advantage that cannot be underestimated.

It's much harder to forecast Asada's jump base marks, because she is prone to UR calls but not in a predictable way. She also consistently gets an edge call on the 3lutz, but the deductions on that come in the GOE not the base marks. So first I'm going to crunch the numbers as if she'd get no UR calls first and ignore the -goe...

For the SP, her jumps add up to 20.7. For the FS, her jumps add up to 49.76. That adds up to a total jump base mark of 70.46!

However, if one of her two planned 3axel gets a < call, she loses 2.5 points each. If the 3toe on her 2axel/3toe combo in the second half of the FS gets a < (which has happened a few times), she loses 1.32 points. She is also susceptible to < on pretty much any other jump. And is unlikely to make it out of the competition without a few < calls. Even with all the < calls at FCC, Asada's jump base values are actually ahead of Miki's. It's only when the GOE's are entered that Miki comes out ahead. But since this has happened multiple times this season, I think it's safe to say that Miki has a definite advantage.

As my above number crunching shows, Yuna can easily maintain her jump base value advantage over Miki despite the new rules. While Miki has proven that she maintains the jump advantage over Mao when GOEs are taken into account. I'd say Yuna doesn't have too much to worry about if she at least maintain her technical skills from the past season.

 

[jatale]

I'm wondering if Miki won't add a 3A at some point to her skating, she can do them I think. I also read somewhere that Yu-Na worked on the 3A a few years ago but didn't practice it because of her injuries at the time - perhaps she'll tackle it again at some point.

 

[sunny0760]

jatale , I highly doubt it.
Miki may as well add 3-3 than 3A. I don't know she can still do 4S but I think 3-3 may be possible.
Yuna clearly said she would not add 3A to her arsenal after the olys. I think there is a clip where she did a 2 footed 3A but there is no evidence she could secceed one. As this is her first competition this season, Yuna may not include 3L either but may include 3L because there is 3L< or she just can do it.

Thank you Serious Business for your informative post.
Anyway, do you agree this rule change restaining 2As and lowering the value of 2As? As it is one more rotation and there is 3A<, isn't the point difference beteen 2A and 3A too much? I understand more variety of triple jumps but should a really good 2A be given lower points than a bad 3A<?

Remember the great 2As from some past skaters. They were grand to see and better than many 2As/3As of current skaters.

Come to think of it, Yuna has never competed under the rule with < marks. At competitions, she has not attempted jumps which she is not 100% sure of. It's not like Takahashi, whose mindset mot explained about in other thread. Will < marks affect her? How about KSF? And is this < effect all positive to figure skating?