How do you come up with these numbers? Bradley's international LP PB is a total of 145.97 (75.17 TES + 70.80 PCS) whereas his Nationals is 151.51 total (78.64 TES + 73.34 PCS). Your estimate of his best will put his total over 160. I constructed an Extremely Good Case Scenario for him on Shawn Sawyer thread that gave him another extra 5 points for well executed quads while keeping his PCS. You are allowing the possibility of his Worlds PCS to be higher than at Nationals while adding another 10 TES points. WOW.
Bradley's LP personal best at Nationals is higher than 151. Look at his 2010 performance.
I say he will score in the high 80's (
at least) for technical merit if he skates
perfectly because that's what the numbers say. There is no arguing against it. The base value for his planned program in terms of technical merit is 85-something. We must assume some +GOE as well for a best-case scenario and, assuming VERY stingy +GOE marks, that puts him at at least he high 80's. If the marks aren't stingy then he could get into the 90's on the technical mark for a best case scenario.
As for the PCS, he will be in the final flight if he skates his SP perfectly, he's the American champion, and he has 2 Quads and 2 Triple Axels in his LP.
IF Ryan does the very best he can, the PCS will certainly be at least 75-ish. Nobody has landed 2 Quads and 2 Triple Axels cleanly in a LP since 2004 (AFAIK...although Joubert did do 3 Quads + a Triple Axel at 2006 CoR). There's no way he won't get a decent PCS score out of respect for that accomplishment, even though his basics/transitions are lacking and he doesn't have reputation/momentum on his side. He does have other charms to his performances, it's not like he is just one of the Chinese jumping beans.
Can he do it? Who knows. But I'm looking at a best-case scenario here and I very much disapprove of the way people are saying he has "no chance". Ryan skated very well in the LP at 2010 Nationals, landing 2 clean Quads, and if he goes even further than that at Worlds with the Triple Axels (and does his best in the SP as well), he certainly COULD be on the podium.