Predictions

[Violet Bliss]

^^^ So, basically, if Abbott skates likes Chan and Chan skates like Abbott, Abbott wins. Duh. The formula applies to anybody: If Skater X skates like Chan and Chan skates like Skater X, Skater X wins.

Gachinsksi at 10th? Seriously?

I agree one of Czech boys will likely end up at 4th. Maybe I've just removed the curse?

 

[Mathman]

Chan will miss one quad, fall on the 3A, and trip up on his 3Lz-1L-3S combo

If Patrick makes the rotations before missing, falling, and tripping up, he will still beat Abbott handily, even if Abbott goes clean by leaving out the quad.

 

[Violet Bliss]

If Patrick makes the rotations before missing.........

Hmmmm, I have to try to wrap my head around that.

 

[silverlake22]

Buttercup: I think Abbott really does have a chance to take this title in Nice. I think a clean, quadless SP from Abbott is very competitive with a Chan SP that features a bobble or two. That would set up a nice showdown between Abbott and Chan in the LP, where Chan will miss one quad, fall on the 3A, and trip up on his 3Lz-1L-3S combo. Abbott wins, and Hanyu and Fernandez duke it out for the bronze because Takahashi's jumps go all wacky, Kozuka still can't find his mojo, and the judges give Gachinski the SS marks that he deserves (low ones). The Czech boys will be unable to hold it together, and the hometown French boys won't be able to stand the pressure. And seriously: the Matrix? AGAIN?

Lol. Jeremy will beat Patrick. GOOD one. Jeremy's season best is 155, Chan's lowest FS score was 155 and that was for a really ****** skate. Also Chan always breaks 80 at least for SP, no matter the mistakes. In reality, this is how it's gonna go down:

1.) Chan
2.) Fernandez/Hanyu
3.) JOUBERT :yay:
4.) Verner/Brezina
5.) Takahashi (jumps MIA)
6.) whichever wonderbaby doesn't come in 2nd
7.) Amodio
8.) other Czech
9.) Abbott
10.) Kozuka

Chan wins, Joubert gets held up to win hometown bronze, a Czech comes in 4th as usual, Takahashi fades to 5th ala 2011 Worlds, Abbott is nervy on the jumps after being perfect at Nationals and winds up down in 9th also ala 2010 Olympics, Gatchinski makes some mistakes and finally gets the PCS he deserves so falls out of top 10, Amodio will be fairly strong but boring in the typical Morozov fashion, whichever Czech doesn't come in 4th will still make the top 10 as they seem to both be skating fairly well this season, either Fernandez or Hanyu will make the podium but not both, the other one will make enough mistakes to finish behind Takahashi who will be technically weak but PCS will hold him up, Kozuka won't be back to last year's form and will suffer from 3rd Japanese syndrome, and this barely make top 10. Voila. Rippon will probably finish like 12th or something, he hasn't been so impressive this season except for in his Nats SP which was very good. Contesti or KVDP will round out the top 12. Song will skate like 4CCs or last season rather than like on the GP, wind up way down the standings.

 

[Violet Bliss]

^^ Enjoyable read and plausible scenario, except for 1:

Takahashi fades to 5th ala 2010 Olympics,

He didn't fade at the 2010 Olympics. Instead he rose to win the Bronze, with quite a few people thinking that he should have won, if only he did't try the quad or if falling on the quad wasn't penalized so much. Maybe you meant a la 2011 Worlds. If there should be another drama, it will not likely be a skate malfunction.

And 2:

Song will skate like 4CCs or last season rather than like on the GP, wind up way down the standings.

Song was really sick and went on to 4CC without a recovery period and he suffered the high altitude severely. No such factors in play for Worlds.

eta. Would Joubert be the hometown boy to be held up? Amodio seems to be the French flavour these days.

 

[Mathman]

Hmmmm, I have to try to wrap my head around that.

It's all in the numbers.

Chan

4T+3T 14.40 + 2 GOE
4T (fall) 6.30
3A (fall) 4.50
3Lz+1Lo+3S (fall) 7.77
3Lo 5.61 +1 GOE
3F 5.83 +1 GOE
3Lz 6.60 +1 GOE
2A 3.63

Total: 59.64

Clean Abbott, no quad.

3A+2T 9.80
3F+3T 9.40
3Lo 5.10
3A 9.35
3Lz+2T+2Lo 10.01
3Lz 6.60
3S 4.62
2A 3.63

Total: 58.51

Of course Abbott can up his total by substituting 4T (fall) for his last 2A.

But it's a risk. If Abbott under-rotaes, then 4T< (fall) is worth a tenth of a point less than 2A (3.2 versus 3.3).

As we know, this makes the quad a huge risk. You risk a tenth of a point if you both under-rotate and fall.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Hmmmm, I'm still trying to wrap my head around fully rotating a quad before "missing" it. :think:

I understand fully rotating a jump before falling or tripping on it, but missing.......

 

[fscric]

It's easy. Fully rotating a quad should be treated the same as under-rotation since it gives the skater an "unfair" advantage over others who can't rotate the quad fully.

 

[Mathman]

^ The point is that Patrick's jump layout makes him Godzilla to Abbott's Godzuki. Patrick does not need to be clicking on all eight cylinders -- six or seven is enough -- to outpoint his opponents.

People get mad when it is suggested that Patrick can win even if he falls. But he can. It's simple arithmetic.

(Not that I expect Patrick to fall, just playing along with doug_log's fantasizing.)

Hmmmm, I'm still trying to wrap my head around fully rotating a quad before "missing" it.

4T+3T 14.40 + 2 GOE
0T Patrick totally "misses' his 4T attempt, skids off an edge, and gets 0 points.
3A (fall) 4.50
3Lz+1Lo+3S (trips, hand down, -2GOE) 9.77
3Lo 5.61 +1 GOE
3F+3T 10.34 +1 GOE (Patrick improvises, being allowed to repeat the 3T having missed the 4T)
3Lz 6.60 +1 GOE
2A 3.63

Total 59.85

 

[silverlake22]

^^ Enjoyable read and plausible scenario, except for 1:



He didn't fade at the 2010 Olympics. Instead he rose to win the Bronze, with quite a few people thinking that he should have won, if only he did't try the quad or if falling on the quad wasn't penalized so much. Maybe you meant a la 2011 Worlds. If there should be another drama, it will not likely be a skate malfunction.

And 2:



Song was really sick and went on to 4CC without a recovery period and he suffered the high altitude severely. No such factors in play for Worlds.

eta. Would Joubert be the hometown boy to be held up? Amodio seems to be the French flavour these days.

Oops, my bad. I did mean Worlds, I will correct that. And I feel like Joubert is going to go out with a bang. Do really well here, then retire. Idk. Then Amodio can dominate the men's scene in France. I just think Joubert has one more really good competition left in him, and now is a good a time as ever. I know he's past his prime but I can see him quading his way to bronze here, I really can, apart from Chan, and Fernandez (save Euros), no one's been that great this season. Takahashi and Hanyu have each had one really strong competition each, but we all know they are both hot and cold skaters. Joubert can score high 150s for a strong skate with a quad or two, and this year, I can honestly see that being enough for bronze. Amodio refound his mojo at Euros, but otherwise he's been pretty disappointing this season, I'm not convinced he will deliver here. Abbott has been getting great PCS but apart from Nationals has not really delivered the kind of tech in his FS that he'll need to medal here. Gatchinski was good at Euros but just ok at his GPs. Song may not bomb but he's going to have to be spot on with his 3 quads to have a chance at cracking the top 5, and even if he wants to make top 10 he will need to hit the big tricks and minimize the mistakes because his PCS are not strong. I don't see Rippon landing/rotating the quad here, and his 3a is still problematic, he skated about as well as we can expect on the GP and his scores were just ok. If he skates well he can maybe finish in 8th or something at the highest. Brezina hasn't been stellar this season, Verner seems to be gaining strength but you never know with him, I think they can both make top 10 but I doubt either medals. Contesti and KVDP will need to hit everything to make top 10 and they are mistake prone so I don't see it happening this year. I guess the big question is Kozuka, but he hasn't competed internationally since NHK where he was good but probably not good enough to medal here, and with Hanyu's success I fear he may get a bit "dumped" on PCS. Idk, he could be a spoiler, but again, I haven't seen him skate in so long I have no idea what kind of form he is in. Also, not doing a quad in the SP and his tendency to make mistakes in SP may hurt him.

This is why I think Joubert medals. His SP is well, ridiculous, but the quad combo will help him and his FS is good enough that if he lands the big tricks he should get big inflated PCS. This field is very deep but very inconsistent.

 

[Violet Bliss]

I know Patrick has one of the highest TES BV, with few edge and UR calls and few negative GOE, plus his almost unbeatable PCS, which is why he needs not be perfect to win. He has the content and the quality. Heck, he doesn't even need his quads to win. I know the math.

However, how can he fully rotate a quad and be missing it? If he fully rotates a quad, he may miss the landing, or a perfect landing. Missing a jump means the jump is not done, not half done, almost done, not having 4 rotations done in the air.

Semantics. But it's not funny any more.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Oops, my bad. I did mean Worlds, I will correct that. And I feel like Joubert is going to go out with a bang. Do really well here, then retire. Idk. Then Amodio can dominate the men's scene in France. I just think Joubert has one more really good competition left in him, and now is a good a time as ever. I know he's past his prime but I can see him quading his way to bronze here, I really can, apart from Chan, and Fernandez (save Euros), no one's been that great this season. Takahashi and Hanyu have each had one really strong competition each, but we all know they are both hot and cold skaters. Joubert can score high 150s for a strong skate with a quad or two, and this year, I can honestly see that being enough for bronze. Amodio refound his mojo at Euros, but otherwise he's been pretty disappointing this season, I'm not convinced he will deliver here. Abbott has been getting great PCS but apart from Nationals has not really delivered the kind of tech in his FS that he'll need to medal here. Gatchinski was good at Euros but just ok at his GPs. Song may not bomb but he's going to have to be spot on with his 3 quads to have a chance at cracking the top 5, and even if he wants to make top 10 he will need to hit the big tricks and minimize the mistakes because his PCS are not strong. I don't see Rippon landing/rotating the quad here, and his 3a is still problematic, he skated about as well as we can expect on the GP and his scores were just ok. If he skates well he can maybe finish in 8th or something at the highest. Brezina hasn't been stellar this season, Verner seems to be gaining strength but you never know with him, I think they can both make top 10 but I doubt either medals. Contesti and KVDP will need to hit everything to make top 10 and they are mistake prone so I don't see it happening this year. I guess the big question is Kozuka, but he hasn't competed internationally since NHK where he was good but probably not good enough to medal here, and with Hanyu's success I fear he may get a bit "dumped" on PCS. Idk, he could be a spoiler, but again, I haven't seen him skate in so long I have no idea what kind of form he is in. Also, not doing a quad in the SP and his tendency to make mistakes in SP may hurt him.

This is why I think Joubert medals. His SP is well, ridiculous, but the quad combo will help him and his FS is good enough that if he lands the big tricks he should get big inflated PCS. This field is very deep but very inconsistent.

Yea, going for two quads in the SP gives Joubert some wonderful cushioning should he fully rotate the jumps. I want him to win bronze, but basically think that after Chan, it's a guessing game.

 

[Mathman]

However, how can he fully rotate a quad and be missing it? If he fully rotates a quad, he may miss the landing, or a perfect landing. Missing a jump means the jump is not done, not half done, almost done, not having 4 rotations done in the air.

Semantics. But it's not funny any more.

Please see my last post. I changed 4T (fall) to 0T (miss). Chan still beats Abbott.

I also changed "trip" from "fall" to "stumble out of the second landing, with hand down."

I left "fall" to mean "complete the rotations, then fall on the landing."

I hope my new semantics better please you.

Why does it make Chan fans mad when people point out how far ahead of the pack he is?

 

[Violet Bliss]

Why does it make Chan fans mad when people point out how far ahead of the pack he is?

Why does it make people think Chan fans are mad when they are not?

I just thought it was funny. The semantics that is.

I just found that you did a calculation with a complete miss of his quad now that you mentioned it. My posts were not about if he would win with or without his quads or with how many mistakes. I simply could not wrap my head around "fully rotating a quad before missing it". 4 rotations is a lot of doing.

 

[Violet Bliss]

This field is very deep but very inconsistent.

Exactly. That's why it's so hard to predict and why Chan is far ahead. He is the most consistent one - consistently raising his TES through the season while just about everybody else could not establish a pattern. They are all hot and cold, up and down, sometimes with good reasons and many times not. We all hope our favorites have gotten the bad skates out of the way and will bring their flawless best at the biggest event but nothing can be rationalized with complete confidence.

eta. Personally I think 4CC was a bigger test than the Euro. Competition level was much higher at 4CC and it was physically demanding, testing the athletes' limits with the high altitude. I don't think underperformance there reflects the skaters' potential on sea level at Worlds but those who did well there certainly showed us what they were made of. The last groups really changed the energy and strutted their stuff, even the Dancers who brought it through their suffering. I was thoroughly impressed with Takahashi for his stamina even though he regards that's where he falls short of Patrick's performance. He cannot be written off as past his prime. However, his "missing" his quad and 3A is troubling because they were at the beginning of his FS before fatigue was a factor. Well, we are back to the inconsistency of the field.

 

[Donna77]

^^ Enjoyable read and plausible scenario, except for 1:
He didn't fade at the 2010 Olympics. Instead he rose to win the Bronze, with quite a few people thinking that he should have won, if only he did't try the quad or if falling on the quad wasn't penalized so much. Maybe you meant a la 2011 Worlds. If there should be another drama, it will not likely be a skate malfunction.

I agree. Even if he did fall during the quad, I'm still quite positive (and hopeful!) that he'll make it to the top 3

 

[spikydurian]

Guessing games are fun so long I don't have to lose an arm or a leg on it.
Men:
1) Patrick
2) Dai
3) Kozuka
4) Fernandaz
5) Gashinski
Ladies:
1) Caroline
2) Mao
3) Akiko
4) Ashley
5) Elena

 

[silverlake22]

Kozuka is the big question mark. I have no idea where to expect he'll place this year. He was soo strong in his FS all last season, but his SPs don't usually score that well, and this season he hasn't shown the same form or consistency he did last season. I could see him winning silver or not making the top 10. I do have a feeling Joubert will do well, regardless of if he medals or not. Abbott will likely step it up from Challenge Cup but I can't really see him recreating his nationals performances here, though I would love to be proven wrong. Also, was Euros a fluke or is Javi melting under the pressure? Is Gatchinski actually a medal contender outside of Russia? Brezina's a challenger and has the big tricks, and Verner beat him at Nationals and also has a quad, can they hold their own or will they be inconsistent as they often are? Has Hanyu's time come yet?

Soo much to speculate.

 

[let`s talk]

Chan

4T+3T 14.40 + 2 GOE
4T (fall) 6.30
3A (fall) 4.50
3Lz+1Lo+3S (fall) 7.77
3Lo 5.61 +1 GOE
3F 5.83 +1 GOE
3Lz 6.60 +1 GOE
2A 3.63

Total: 59.64

People get mad when it is suggested that Patrick can win even if he falls. But he can. It's simple arithmetic.

That's bad. Very bad. We never had a world champion with 3 falls, didn't we? Also, they don't allow now to win the Worlds twice in a row (do they?). The World champion will be a new guy. Quite a surprising.

 

[bestskate8]

men

Gachinski
Chan
Joubert/Amodio

ladies

Costner
Asada
Korobeinikova

dance

V/M
B/S
D/W

pair

V/T
K/S
S/S