Should the JSF be promoting Hanyu before Takahashi?

[skateluvr]

Should JSF be promoting Hanyu now before Dai? I think not. He does a great SP but Dai is complete. Dai is the WC and Olympic medalist. Dai is beautiful to watch. Hanyu is so far an SP skater. Will he have elegance and finesse in a year? Stamina, posture? He's a fast, explosive jumper now, but hes not ready to be pushed to battle Chan/Javier-others with better programs and years better SS. Is JSF boosting his scores because they think he's the best by Sochi?
The best men who will have the quads/3axels with best skills/style/programs are for me in any order Dai, Chan, Fernandez. Hanyu's LP is at times a rough ride-why push him when they have Dai and Kozuka? Very complete skaters-more mature...Hanyu for Sochi?

It could easily be an Asian sweep or Japanese sweep in Chan falls too much.

GPF has 4 of 6 Japanese! Javier only one to make it from Europe/Russia. P Chan only North American. I hope Evan makes it to Nationals.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

but hes not ready to be pushed to battle Chan/Javier-others with better programs and years better SS.

Are you saying Javier has years better SS than Yuzuru?
Clean Hanyu would beat clean Javier pretty definitly, I don't even think it would be close...

The key thing here is easy: Yuzuru is 17. He's not as complete as others by now, but with the speed this kid is developing, this might already change next season. Maybe Hanyu isn't JSF's best shot for 2014, but boy does he look ready to dominate the mens field after that, leading up until 2018. I don't think the JSF is pushing his scores. But surely Hanyu is going to be on that world/olympic team, even if he doesn't skate well at nationals, all this kid needs is time and experience.

Besides that: more complete skater =/= scoring machine under IJS. And Yuzuru is the JSF's best point getter, he already is now. I'm not seeing anyone besides maybe Chan and him cracking 95 in the SP. He's the best jumper Japan has - Dai and Taka don't have a second quad, not as consistent a 4T or 3A, and they're not getting the same GOE (and rightfully so...).

And now Hanyu does have his SP-skater status, huh? Already saw him being compared to Sasha Cohen quite often. But I'm not agreeing at all - we're just at the beginning of the season. Things didn't look different last time around - but starting with GPF, he managed to get his FS down. I'd think his LP will improve this time too.

I don't think the JSF needs to be pushing anyone of these 3 more than the others. And with the love Hanyu gets from international judges (and already got last season at WC while being japanese #3), I don't even think he needs so much politiking and federation support.

 

[Buttercup]

I think the JSF should promote both of them (and Kozuka), but I don't know how realistic that is. But if you have to identify the better bet in the long term, I think the JSF is correct in pushing Hanyu. He's younger, which means that he will likely stick around longer, still has room to develop (his progress so far has been staggering) and is likely less injury-prone; he has a stronger technical arsenal which he is still expanding - Dai was never the most consistent technically, and the ACL injury four years ago did not help matters. Takahashi, at this point, can beat others because of his PCS, but he's not as competitive technically, since he's prone to URs and other problems (like it or not, falls and sloppy landings are better than URs in many cases).

I think Dai at his best is incredible, but if you look at his career, he has not been a sure bet by any means. His medal record at major and even less major events does not match his talent level. The upside on Yuzuru at this point is higher.

I'm not sure what your final sentence has to do with this thread.

 

[emdee]

At the risk of being mauled I am going to say that Dai is more of an exhibition skater than a competition skater. IMO if Hanyu can get over his stamina issues, and he should with consistent training, he will be an all time great... provided he keeps the injuries at bay. He is only 17 so has years to develop. Kurt or Patrick ( my 2 favourites) were nowhere where he is when they were 17.

 

[bekalc]

Should JSF be promoting Hanyu now before Dai? I think not. He does a great SP but Dai is complete. Dai is the WC and Olympic medalist. Dai is beautiful to watch. Hanyu is so far an SP skater. Will he have elegance and finesse in a year? Stamina, posture? He's a fast, explosive jumper now, but hes not ready to be pushed to battle Chan/Javier-others with better programs and years better SS. Is JSF boosting his scores because they think he's the best by Sochi?.

Hanyu has better skating skills than Javier and many are saying in both phases he was faster than Dai. The fact of the matter is clear the judges see Dai as behind Chan and there really isn't anything in Dai's technical arsenal that's going to change that.

However Hanyu, Hanyu has more in his technical arsenal that can challenge Chan. The judges are already scoring Hanyu higher than they have ever scored Chan in the short. And you have to realize as well that Hanyu's two fall free program at NHK with its issues still had the highest TES of all the men this season. If a guy is going to be Chan in Sochi it will be Hanyu

 

[Kalina]

Completely agree with everything Li'Kitsu said.
About JSF's decision, I guess we'll have to wait until Nationals. But so far, Hanyu is the only japanese skater getting equal or lower PCs at home than in international competition: it happened last year at Nationals, and now NHK Trophy.

 

[evangeline]

I think Yuzuru Hanyu is the Chosen One. Hopefully of the Harry Potter as opposed to the Anakin Skywalker variety, though.....

 

[pitterpatter]

Yuzuru's achieving his results because of the progress in his skating, his technical prowess, and because he's performed well - not because the JSF is 'pushing him' to battle Chan/Javier or 'boosting his scores.' It's not up to the JSF (or anyone) to decide if he's good enough or ready - if Yuzuru delivers, the marks are going to follow.

I don't think the JSF is greatly promoting any one skater over another right now (at least in the mens), and imo that's working well for them so far. With Patrick in the mix, strictly promoting Dai or Kozuka isn't going to cut it; they're both contenders, but hardly safe bets.

Like other posters have said, Yuzuru's a rapidly improving 17 year old whose biggest issue is that his body needs time to develop and strengthen. With 15 months until the Olympics, I'd say his prospects are pretty good.

 

[bekalc]

In general I would say I'm sure the Japanese fed would prefer if Dai won because the fear with Hanyu winning in Sochi is he'll retire early. However at the end of the day you bet on the one actually more likely to win. And I really think that's Hanyu. At this point its already Hanyu and we are looking at a year before Sochi. At this point Hanyu may be their best shot at an OGM in general.

 

[Kalina]

In general I would say I'm sure the Japanese fed would prefer if Dai won because the fear with Hanyu winning in Sochi is he'll retire early. However at the end of the day you bet on the one actually more likely to win. And I really think that's Hanyu. At this point its already Hanyu and we are looking at a year before Sochi. At this point Hanyu may be their best shot at an OGM in general.

Hanyu often used to say that he wants to become a skater like Plushenko, a champion with multiple Olympic medals. He also said that while he wants to qualify for Sochi and win a medal there, he's aiming to leave a lasting performance at the 2018 Olympics. So I doubt he'd retire so early.

 

[Bluebonnet]

The best men who will have the quads/3axels with best skills/style/programs are for me in any order Dai, Chan, Fernandez. Hanyu's LP is at times a rough ride-why push him when they have Dai and Kozuka? Very complete skaters-more mature...Hanyu for Sochi?

Watering down his program around the big jumps might be the only way for Takahashi to add two quads into one program. Hanyu is a TES machine. His high TES, by the way he deserved it, could overcome any skaters' high PCS. That was what has happened at NHK. I agree that Hanyu is still very rough and raw. But he can jump and spin. Even with mistakes sometimes, he can still jump and spin better than many top skaters. I think JSF is focusing on Sochi already. And they are willing to sacrifice Takahashi as well. That was the reason that they put both Hanyu and Takahashi into the same GP event which was bad choice for the Japanese skater who loses there. This time, Takahashi had to bow out for Hanyu at this early time in season.

 

[Skater Boy]

I think Dai is stil the one to beat but Hanyu still has time to develop. It could be an Asian sweep no matter what if you consider Chan is Chinese I do think Hanyu's ss are a bit overrated because maybe he has such exuberance - youth. But while time is on his side - pressure could also build and rear its ugly head.

 

[doctor2014]

In general I would say I'm sure the Japanese fed would prefer if Dai won because the fear with Hanyu winning in Sochi is he'll retire early. However at the end of the day you bet on the one actually more likely to win. And I really think that's Hanyu. At this point its already Hanyu and we are looking at a year before Sochi. At this point Hanyu may be their best shot at an OGM in general.

Hanyu often used to say that he wants to become a skater like Plushenko, a champion with multiple Olympic medals. He also said that while he wants to qualify for Sochi and win a medal there, he's aiming to leave a lasting performance at the 2018 Olympics. So I doubt he'd retire so early.

I think bekalc means that if Hanyu gets the Olympic gold medal he’s likely to retire ala Kulik. Olympic medals do not equal Olympic gold medal. I don’t think Hanyu often said he’s expecting to win the OGM in Sochi because there are more experienced skaters such as Patrick, Daisuke, Plushy, Kozuka, etc. If Hanyu gets a bronze or silver medal like Plushy did in 1998, then he’ll continue and hope to dominate until 2018. But if Hanyu wins the OGM in Sochi, I think there’s a high chance that he’ll retire in 2014 given his conditions.

However, you don’t really have to worry because he has very little chance to win OGM in Sochi. I think it’s good enough if he can get a bronze medal there.

Should JSF be promoting Hanyu now before Dai? Is JSF boosting his scores because they think he's the best by Sochi? why push him when they have Dai and Kozuka?

Your questions are not based on facts. Can you give me some evidence of how JSF is promoting Hanyu and boosting his scores? In fact, the JSF has been continuously lowballing Hanyu. Almost all men and ladies got a PCS boost at the 2011 Japanese Nationals compared to their PCSs at international competitions last season. Hanyu was one of the few exceptions and he received lower PCS at the Japanese Nationals.

The JSF lowballed Hanyu even more and did not even give him the chance to compete at JO, so he had to go to the Finlandia Trophy. If the JSF was pushing Hanyu, then they should have invited him to compete with Daisuke at JO instead of inviting Kozuka, as Hanyu is the reigning world bronze medalist and had a much better 2011-12 season than Kozuka. Hanyu competed on the same day (Oct. 6) at the Finlandia Trophy and his score there would have beaten both Daisuke and Kozuka at the JO. So the JSF did Daisuke and Kozuka big favor by denying Hanyu the chance to skate at JO.

At 2012 NHK, when Daisuke, Asada, and Suzuki all got higher PCSs than their previous GP event, Hanyu alone got lower PCSs despite better performance and much higher TES. It’s easy when one looks at a skater skating at home and claim “home-boosted,” but not in Hanyu’s case.

He got higher PCS in Seattle. I have to wonder where is Hanyu’s home? Seattle or Sendai? And if some federation is boosting his scores then it must be the USFSA, not the JSF.

 

[ks777]

Hanyu has better skating skills than Javier and many are saying in both phases he was faster than Dai. The fact of the matter is clear the judges see Dai as behind Chan and there really isn't anything in Dai's technical arsenal that's going to change that.

However Hanyu, Hanyu has more in his technical arsenal that can challenge Chan. The judges are already scoring Hanyu higher than they have ever scored Chan in the short. And you have to realize as well that Hanyu's two fall free program at NHK with its issues still had the highest TES of all the men this season. If a guy is going to be Chan in Sochi it will be Hanyu

I totally agree with you 100%!

 

[Olympia]

I think Yuzuru Hanyu is the Chosen One. Hopefully of the Harry Potter as opposed to the Anakin Skywalker variety, though.....

I just love this comment!

Getting back to the question--I can never answer things like this. Remember how Tara Lipinski was projected to do well in 1998 but be more medal-worthy in 2002? The future will hit you in the face every time if you think you know how to predict it. As for which of the two skaters Japan should get behind, Hanyu or Daisuke, what a glorious decision to have to make. I envy the federation its wealth of talent. Can it endorse both of them? (And while they're at it, both Mao and Akiko?) Surely there's a way to do this.

As a fan, I just know that I'm practically drooling in anticipation of the feast we will be getting in this year's Worlds and next year's Winter Games.

 

[Skater Boy]

JSF should not promote anyone. I think Dai or Hanyu have excellent shots at OGM. THey are both great skaters with Hanyu improving. Hanyu's technical arsenal needs a bit more evidence. Because he is so new he doesn't have enough clean quads to say he is "consistent". He and Dai are getting there so while Javier and Hanyu have "more arsenal" they have yet to be really consistent and cleanly landing all the quads - this year could say a lot though. Chan will need to up the ante and ensuring the axel and quad triple toe is there and maybe look at one more quad but at the very least ensure he gets level 4's on all spins and footwork. Poor Verner and Brezina aren't looking so hot right now. Abbott is a bit of a question mark and a bigger question mark is OGM Evan. Forget Johnny Weir. I wonder what is running through Joubert's mind too?

 

[NMURA]

I had the impression at the time of Nice worlds. The international judges have pressed the JSF to accept Hanyu as #1 Japanese man. Hanyu's score of FS (with one fall) was higher than Takahashi's absolutely best effort. They could give Takahashi the gold medal with little difficulty. Just give Takahashi the PCS a little higher than Chan. That would be justifiable considering their performances. But they didn't do that because it would only strengthen Takahashi's position in Japan.

At WTT, Takahashi has beaten Chan with super inflated scores. The JSF knew that if Hanyu was competing there, Takahashi's scores could be held down. Only when Takahashi is recognized as undeniable #1 Japanese man in the field (at home), he can be boosted limitlessly. The same thing occured at Japan Open.

At NHK trophy, Takahashi's PCS of FS was only 83 points. He was given 91+ points at Japan Open for a performance of similar level (TES 81). It was only 0.4 points higher than COC. Takahashi was demoted to #2 position even before Hanyu's skate. Asada's PCS at NHK trophy was 3.5 points lower than JO regardless of the much worse performance. I think the JSF is already promoting Hanyu before Takahashi. Takahashi's TES potential is too low and his quads will never be reliable. There are only 15 months to Sochi olympics. They have no more time to waste.

 

[pangtongfan]

They quite clearly are. Now the question I guess if it they are right too. Last season Takahashi with some of his best skating couldnt even beat flawed Chan in LPs, and Takahashi all those years has produced only 1 major gold for Japan, and is quite old and Hanyu young with still tons of years and improvement left, so I would say their choice to back Hanyu over Takahashi is correct.

 

[chuckm]

It's not really a stamina problem. Hanyu has asthma, and that affects his ability to deliver a FS as good as his SP. It's very noticeable that Hanyu's FS is great until he hits the last minute. From that point on, his breathing problems start to undermine his performance.

 

[pangtongfan]

I think he can overcome the program in time. Harding had severe asthma, inflamed it by smoking heavily at all competitions, and still finished her programs very strongly when she bothered to show up in shape and trained (which was about 25-30% of the time, and had nothing to do with asthma but her bad attitude and laziness).