State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

[tulosai]

You are assuming Ashley would skate clean. I don't know about that, either. Remember, she's not a SP skater. She didn't do so well in the SP last year, right?
So, giving the same consideration, if all clean, she will be around 7 or 8.
If all make one mistake, she will be around 7 or 8.
If she's clean, and all make mistake, then she maybe stay in the top 3.

I basically agree except if all clean (without triple-triple) I see her more 5-7 than 7 or 8. One mistake I agree 7 or 8, maybe 9 depending how others do. Her only hope of podium here though is if others make mistakes. That said it seems likely Mao will, shich could open up a spot for Ashley or someone else strong enough to take it.

 

[FlattFan]

I basically agree except if all clean (without triple-triple) I see her more 5-7 than 7 or 8. One mistake I agree 7 or 8, maybe 9 depending how others do. Her only hope of podium here though is if others make mistakes. That said it seems likely Mao will, shich could open up a spot for Ashley or someone else strong enough to take it.

For SP only, here are some who will place higher than her if they are clean and she is clean.

Mao,yuna, Carolina, adelina, Liza, kiira, akiko, maybe even Gracie and the Canadian girl as well.
There are about 9 girls who can get ahead of her.

Maybe with enough push, her pcs will cancel out some of her tes deficit, that's why I think at best, she can hope for 7 or 8. At worst, could be out of top 10, even when she is clean.

 

[R.D.]

I think John Nicks has his work cut out for him. Ashley has to go into Worlds like she is skating for the world championship. If she backs in hoping not to fall, there's trouble ahead.

THIS. Precisely this...

 

[tulosai]

For SP only, here are some who will place higher than her if they are clean and she is clean.

Mao,yuna, Carolina, adelina, Liza, kiira, akiko, maybe even Gracie and the Canadian girl as well.
There are about 9 girls who can get ahead of her.

Maybe with enough push, her pcs will cancel out some of her tes deficit, that's why I think at best, she can hope for 7 or 8. At worst, could be out of top 10, even when she is clean.

I guess we are counting a bit differently. I think a clean Ashley beats a clean Liza and Akiko for sure. I wish it were not so about Akiko but the judges do not like her for some reason, and I don't think Liza will get PCS high enough to place over clean Ashley. I think a clean Ashley probably beats a clean Gracie and Osmond as well. I think a clean Ashley possibly beats a clean Kiira.

However, I take your point. I guess we'll see what happens

ETA: For this post I am also addressing SP only.

 

[R.D.]

The big question Wagner will be facing is whether to go for the 3-3 and 2A/3T. I don't know how consistent or comfortable she is with those jumps, especially considering her recent setbacks. Like MM implied, I think she'll just have to take a deep breath and go for broke, holding nothing back. Only then will she have some sort of shot, assuming she doesn't screw up.

Gold will obviously go for it all - I will wait until after Four Continents for final thoughts on her.

 

[FlattFan]

If she goes for broke, it will take at least a few melt down for her to make the podium. She's second tier. Only way is to out TES the top girls. Problem is the top girls currently out TES her. And with PCS disadvantage, it is grim and dim prospect.

 

[Reginald]

You're overview shows that this is going to be one of the most exciting Worlds in recent years. There Worlds champions, two Americans with a good shot of getting us 3 spots for the Olympics, and the up-and-coming Russian dynamos we have been following for a couple of years now. It's a shame that only three of these talented women can medal.

I know, RIGHT.

Next year's Olympics could be a shark tank.

You've got.

Yu-Na Kim, the reigning Olympic Champ who can put up unreal scores.

Mao Asada, the two time world and two time GPF champions who can do three triple axels in a single competition.

Carolina Kostner, the PCS Queen, who is at the peak of her career.

Kaytlyn Osmond, Canadian star, who is surprisingly good, and dominant.

Julia Lipinskaia, the Junior World Champion who put up a 187 spot (Junior World Record). One of the best spinners.

Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA. Absolute beast. Can give you 7 triples every day.

Adelina SOTNIKOVA, THREE time Russian national champion whose personal best score is eighth in the world.

Kanako Murakami, 2010 Junior World Champion, and 2010-2011 GPF Bronze MEdalist. Has infinite potential.

Akiko Suzuki, a skater who found her mojo after 24. Absolutely on Fire.

Ashley Wagner, this girl is ferocious to compete with when she's on.

Gracie Gold. 3Lz-3T, 2A-3T, combinations make her a 130+ LP force to be reckoned with.


And the great thing is at least 6 of these skaters will be staying on for Pyongchang. It should be a wild ride.

 

[skatel80]

I know, RIGHT.

Next year's Olympics could be a shark tank.

You've got.

Yu-Na Kim, the reigning Olympic Champ who can put up unreal scores.

Mao Asada, the two time world and two time GPF champions who can do three triple axels in a single competition.

Carolina Kostner, the PCS Queen, who is at the peak of her career.

Kaytlyn Osmond, Canadian star, who is surprisingly good, and dominant.

Julia Lipinskaia, the Junior World Champion who put up a 187 spot (Junior World Record). One of the best spinners.

Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA. Absolute beast. Can give you 7 triples every day.

Adelina SOTNIKOVA, THREE time Russian national champion whose personal best score is eighth in the world.

Kanako Murakami, 2010 Junior World Champion, and 2010-2011 GPF Bronze MEdalist. Has infinite potential.

Akiko Suzuki, a skater who found her mojo after 24. Absolutely on Fire.

Ashley Wagner, this girl is ferocious to compete with when she's on.

Gracie Gold. 3Lz-3T, 2A-3T, combinations make her a 130+ LP force to be reckoned with.


And the great thing is at least 6 of these skaters will be staying on for Pyongchang. It should be a wild ride.

Love this analysis :agree: I cant wait for the 2014 olys it is going to be so exciting!

 

[Icey]

I think this might be a worlds Ashley will want to forget, not as bad as czisny's last year, of course, but embarrassing. Going to worlds not winning the lp at her own nationals does not bode well. As one writer put it, Gracie stole her thunder. Psychologically, there is no way she is going to forget the falls she has had in her last two events, one resulting in a serious injury. I think she will skate conservatively and hold back, and as one poster indicated that could really be problematic. I think she should probably have gone to 4CC and in a less pressured competition than worlds hopefully had a good skate and completely regained her confidence. I expect Gracie will out rank her at worlds.

 

[rkuang]

It seems like a lot of people are worried, and some have written out Wagner completely as a top contender. I would love nothing more than for her to do well and show everyone what's what, but then again, I want them all to do well. I'm not holding my breath, but I'll be very happy if Ashley does well. I just want everyone to be on their A-game, then I'll be happy no matter who medals.

 

[Mrs. P]

It seems like a lot of people are worried, and some have written out Wagner completely as a top contender. I would love nothing more than for her to do well and show everyone what's what, but then again, I want them all to do well. I'm not holding my breath, but I'll be very happy if Ashley does well. I just want everyone to be on their A-game, then I'll be happy no matter who medals.

I don't see the point of worrying. They will skate how they will skate. It can be interesting to analyze trends (I do love data), but I think we're at the point of over-analyzing the situation. I too would love Ashley -- and all the other skaters -- for that matter to skate well and hope the scores reflect what they put out on the ice.

 

[clairecloutier]

I don't see the point of worrying. They will skate how they will skate. It can be interesting to analyze trends (I do love data), but I think we're at the point of over-analyzing the situation. I too would love Ashley -- and all the other skaters -- for that matter to skate well and hope the scores reflect what they put out on the ice.

But, overanalyzing figure skating is our raison d'etre Who except us GSers could possibly put so much brainpower into all this?

 

[Mrs. P]

But, overanalyzing figure skating is our raison d'etre Who except us GSers could possibly put so much brainpower into all this?

Yes, I know Trust me, I've spent way too much time over-analyzing EVERYTHING including figure skating, but I guess I'm just growing weary of this particular analysis.

 

[R.D.]

I think this might be a worlds Ashley will want to forget, not as bad as czisny's last year, of course, but embarrassing. Going to worlds not winning the lp at her own nationals does not bode well. As one writer put it, Gracie stole her thunder. Psychologically, there is no way she is going to forget the falls she has had in her last two events, one resulting in a serious injury. I think she will skate conservatively and hold back, and as one poster indicated that could really be problematic. I think she should probably have gone to 4CC and in a less pressured competition than worlds hopefully had a good skate and completely regained her confidence. I expect Gracie will out rank her at worlds.

While I agree (except for the 4CC part - she was right to skip it, she needs rest), the opposite effect could also play in: her competitiveness will kick in and she will want to show the world that she is not "done" yet. Might be tougher to do that as the US champ (again), though.

Nothing I'd like more than for consistent, confident Wagner to reappear because then the only variable left would be Gold's SP performance...

 

[Layfan]

While I agree (except for the 4CC part - she was right to skip it, she needs rest), the opposite effect could also play in: her competitiveness will kick in and she will want to show the world that she is not "done" yet. Might be tougher to do that as the US champ (again), though.

Nothing I'd like more than for consistent, confident Wagner to reappear because then the only variable left would be Gold's SP performance...

I think with Ashley it simply depends on how her training goes from here to worlds. If she manages to stay healthy and train well and not get fatigued then her fierceness has a good chance of coming out. If she doesn't, there's still a chance she will dig deep and find a way to pull it out but it's unlikely. Her performance at nationals was simply a reflection of her training, which got interrupted by injury and illness. So I think it will be quite difficult for her to get it back, especially as the injury is probably still needling her, but if she does she can come out fighting. I still think Ashley is quiet capable of getting herself into the right mind set. In a way, her last two performances have lessened the pressure on her. People expect less of her at worlds but they are still rooting for her so she can just go and do her best.

In my mind, the judges will be inclined to put Kostner, Kim, Asada and perhaps Elizaveta over Ashley but she can still make it impossible for them to do that if the others mess up and she doesn't. And there's a good chance of all these ladies messing up.

I highly doubt Ashley will put out the 3-3 at worlds and I don't think she should no matter what anyone says. If she hasn't already it's because it's not consistent and I find it highly unlikely that it will get there before worlds. I don't think she needs it as much as other people think she does. The skaters who are the most consistent with 3-3s have other drawbacks that take away from their competitiveness. Except for Kim. But I think Kim is still very much a question mark. She'll be rusty in terms of competing and we'll just have to see what her drive is these days.

Even if Ashley lands a 3-3 it will probably be URed or two-footed and then she might end up messing some other key jump so it won't make a bit of difference.

 

[Krislite]

After Gold's performance at 4CC and Wagner's Nationals "win", is anyone still very confident the US will get three spots for the Olympics? The pressure will be very high at Worlds and Gold just seems so inconsistent. Wagner will be facing very stiff competition and I can't see her realistically hitting top 5 now.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

After Gold's performance at 4CC and Wagner's Nationals "win", is anyone still very confident the US will get three spots for the Olympics? The pressure will be very high at Worlds and Gold just seems so inconsistent. Wagner will be facing very stiff competition and I can't see her realistically hitting top 5 now.

Confident? No. It's gonna depend on which skaters show up to play.

 

[Jammers]

We are not going to get that 3rd spot back at Worlds no matter who goes. It's the same reason why there has been no US Lady on the podium at Worlds since 2006. They are just not good enough.

 

[R.D.]

After Gold's performance at 4CC and Wagner's Nationals "win", is anyone still very confident the US will get three spots for the Olympics? The pressure will be very high at Worlds and Gold just seems so inconsistent. Wagner will be facing very stiff competition and I can't see her realistically hitting top 5 now.

On paper, it doesn't look good.

However, stranger things have happened in skating. It is ice, after all.

 

[guanchi]

We're not good enough to realistically get 6 and 7, unless Akiko and one of the russians falter. If they both do bad, we could sneak in there.
The problem is Osmond. On home ice, she could be buoyed by the crowd and give a lights out performance. Then we have no chance, esp. if she ups her jump content and conditioning in the long.