I think Ashley should stick with her current jump layout. The 3F-3T and 2A-3T are not consistent jumps for her. If she goes for them, she is likely to underrotate or two-foot the attempts. At this point, I'm not expecting her to upgrade her technical content. I'm just hoping that she is over her injury and is able to get back to being consistent in her performances.
State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season
- Thread starter R.D.
- Start date
I think Ashley should stick with her current jump layout. The 3F-3T and 2A-3T are not consistent jumps for her. If she goes for them, she is likely to underrotate or two-foot the attempts. At this point, I'm not expecting her to upgrade her technical content. I'm just hoping that she is over her injury and is able to get back to being consistent in her performances.
It is a risk that Team Wagner will have to assess in the next few weeks. She really, really needs the extra tech content with the increased level of competition at worlds this year, but if she is not consistent on said jumps, perhaps it might be better to stick to the status quo. But the problem is the SP. She cannot afford to mess that up, and with no 3-3 she could find herself near the middle of the pack (i.e. out of the final FS group and that means no high scores just like last year).
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2012
Ashley could well be one of the only (or the only?) skater not bringing a 3-3 or 2A-3T. And that's a problem.
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2003
After 4CC, I feel like we're back at square one. A couple months ago, things were looking promising to get the 3 spots back. Outstanding performances by Ashley to start the season; five different U.S. ladies medaling on the Grand Prix; two U.S. ladies making the GP final.
Now, who knows what will happen. I still believe Ashley can pull it together for a decent finish at Worlds, but by decent, I mean top 5 or 6. I don't know if the podium is in reach at this point, not with Yuna and Carolina back, and Mao upping the ante technically. Plus Akiko coming on strong again, and Kanako and Tukt as outside threats. Ashley really doesn't have the technical content to compete with any of them. Even Akiko's landed 2A-3T and 3T-3T this season, which Ashley hasn't, and Carolina doesn't have the content either but will beat Ashley in GOE!
As for Gracie, I've been worried about her nerves/inconsistency all season. I thought she had turned a corner after her LP at Nationals--I really thought she'd come in strong at 4CC and get a medal--but instead, a total meltdown. And this competition was nothing compared to how intense it will be at Worlds. Realistically, I think a top 10 or top 12 finish at Worlds is about the best she/we can expect. (Actually, that's the problem, it's impossible to know what to expect with Gracie.)
Especially now, after 4CC, I really wish Christina could have made the team. She clearly has the best international results of any U.S. lady this season except Ashley. That should count for something IMO.
But the team is Ashley and Gracie. And I'm not feeling positive about their chances right now.
Now, who knows what will happen. I still believe Ashley can pull it together for a decent finish at Worlds, but by decent, I mean top 5 or 6. I don't know if the podium is in reach at this point, not with Yuna and Carolina back, and Mao upping the ante technically. Plus Akiko coming on strong again, and Kanako and Tukt as outside threats. Ashley really doesn't have the technical content to compete with any of them. Even Akiko's landed 2A-3T and 3T-3T this season, which Ashley hasn't, and Carolina doesn't have the content either but will beat Ashley in GOE!
As for Gracie, I've been worried about her nerves/inconsistency all season. I thought she had turned a corner after her LP at Nationals--I really thought she'd come in strong at 4CC and get a medal--but instead, a total meltdown. And this competition was nothing compared to how intense it will be at Worlds. Realistically, I think a top 10 or top 12 finish at Worlds is about the best she/we can expect. (Actually, that's the problem, it's impossible to know what to expect with Gracie.)
Especially now, after 4CC, I really wish Christina could have made the team. She clearly has the best international results of any U.S. lady this season except Ashley. That should count for something IMO.
But the team is Ashley and Gracie. And I'm not feeling positive about their chances right now.
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2009
Sotnikova is so inconsistent though. She's lost to Osmond, Gao, and Radinova this season. She skated well at Euros but that's just one competition. Although I guess Gold is the same way - one great FS at US Nats and a good SP at COR but the rest hasn't been stellar. Osmond also struggled a lot at 4CC. Predicting the outcome is hard when much of the field is quite inconsistent.
Gracie even if she skates lights out won't medal at Worlds. With her tech content she might make the top 5 though since only Kim will have as tough a program technically. At this point i just want her to skate clean and not have that deer in the headlights look on her face. We've seen that look to many times in the last 4 years with Mirai and Alissa. We don't need yet another talented skater who can't compete when the pressure's on.
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2011
Mao, Yuna, Carolina might have a legitimate shot at a medal
but the others lets weight in the others
Murakami - sure wont get that much score at Worlds, her UR's were generous in Japan
Suzuki has been hot n cold at the near of this season same for Ashley
Adelina - unless she can skate like at Euros an dprove to me she is not a headcase
Tuk - she has a shot in Top 5 I guess but she has a long history of terrible SP's and thus have to mountain climb in FS
so that leaves Osmond as her big competitor, surely will score 70+ in SP if clean with Canadian Bonus, and with Osmonds 2 falls in LP will score 120+ again inflated by home ground.
- Joined
- Aug 31, 2011
Brrrr!!!Hope not!Osmond grows on me but if that'll be the case, I don't know...Hope there won't be super inflation. She is not better than Rus girls to get such marks.
- Joined
- Aug 31, 2011
Sotnikova IS inconsistent BUT if skates clean - they won't beat her without inflation, I'm sure 100000%. Her jumps, spins, presentation, ss...She is a complete package if clean
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2011
sad but this might be the case
Osmond is a lock in Top 5 even with her 2 falls in FS being the hometown girl :disapp:
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2009
Sotnikova IS inconsistent BUT if skates clean - they won't beat her without inflation, I'm sure 100000%. Her jumps, spins, presentation, ss...She is a complete package if clean
I completely agree, I wasn't trying to suggest otherwise. When she's on, she's fabulous, it's just that she usually runs hot and cold. Euros was a good step forward for her though so I hope it gives her confidence going into Worlds.
- Joined
- Aug 31, 2011
Now as I read all this stuff about Gracie, I recall me writing about Adelina XD That she will always fall and so on...I'm sure Gracie and Adelina both will be alright, just give them time.
But I still don't buy this fluff about Sotnikova regaining her consistency after 1 competition..Hope I'm wrong
- Joined
- Aug 31, 2011
If she skates lights out of the building..ok)
At least this Worlds will be more interesting than last year's...Fight for bronze XD and 4,5 places)
- Joined
- Feb 24, 2012
Gold and Wagner have a good shot to regain three spots for the US heading into the Olympic year. However, a lot depends on the three Russian ladies, Korpi and Osmond and assuming they can hold off a flukish Elene G and the Chinese lady. They will have first of all to deal with the big three Carolina, Yuna and Mao. Then you have Wagner battling Suzuki and just behind 2/3 Russian ladies (Liza and Adeline), Kanako and Osmond to battle Gold. 3rd of 4th by Wagner and 8th or 9th or in the right equation 10th is more than doable for Gold. Gold has to beat some of them though - Yuna, 3 Japanese ladies, 3 Russian ladies, Osmond, Korpi, Chinese lady - one would think she is more than capable of beating Osmond, all the Russians and the third Japanese lady as well as Korpi and the Chinese lady.
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2012
This. Osmond will be in the Top 5 if (in the words of Phil Hersh) she blows the doors off of the building. I simply don't see her as a realistic contender against the likes of Kim, Asada (and her 8-triple FS), Suzuki, Tuktamysheva, Wagner, Korpi, etc. Not to mention that 4CC showed some of Kaetlyn's consistency issues, too. At Worlds, when she's singly responsible for regaining Canada's 2 spots, who knows how she'll fare?
(Briefly, since this thread is about AMERICAN women) I see Osmond as Canada's version of Gracie Gold. Both Osmond and Gold can place top 5, but they must be ON. Both have showed great potential but both have shown signs of cracking under the pressure their respective feds place on them.
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2012
I would argue that Kaetlyn has it even worse than Gracie. At least Gracie will be under the wing of the reigning US champion, Ashley Wagner, who's had previous Worlds experience. Kaetlyn will be utterly on her own.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
Maybe it won't be that bad. Chan, Virtue and Moir, Duhamel and Radford, Shawn Sawyer can give her confidence-building hugs.
