2013 Junior Worlds Ladies FS

[silverlake22]

Osmond won't get 70+ for PCS but I do think she could get 60 to 65 ish considering the event is in Canada, which could very well help her get on the podium if she lands her jumps, which have the potential to be quite nice and pick up +GOE. I think it's very possible she medals if one of the favorites falter.

Anyways Anna P. just had a very nice Tango exhibition piece in the Gala, she was very striking, skated with a kind of passion and fire in her skating that the judges may have picked up in the FS. And she did a very nice 3f-2t in her Gala program and it seemed really high! Her jumps I would actually say are pretty big - or well high, they don't cover much length but they do pop. Her FS was a bit messy but I'm sure watching the event live there's a reason she wound up 3rd and Samantha's marks were lower.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

you do realize Osmond will be skating on home ice right ? she will have that huge advantage to podium
she has a chance to score a 70+ in pcs skating a clean LP like Mao, Yuna or Carolina to keep her in contention
I think 1 fall from Osmond she can still warrant a 125-130+ score, so podium is within her reach, wether deserving or not

You keep saying stuff that is simply not true. Repeating lies doesn't make them fact.

 

[silverlake22]

Weren't Osmond's PCS 60 at SC? And that was home ice too. So maybe now they'd go a LITTLE higher, but certainly 10 points is over-the-top. And 60 isn't totally unreasonable for Osmond considering Gold got 58 for that messy FS at COR.

 

[chuckm]

Weren't Osmond's PCS 60 at SC? And that was home ice too. So maybe now they'd go a LITTLE higher, but certainly 10 points is over-the-top. And 60 isn't totally unreasonable for Osmond considering Gold got 58 for that messy FS at COR.

Not quite 60:

115.89 57.28 59.61 7.32 7.25 7.61 7.46 7.61 1.00 Osmond FS, SC

Another problem is the SP. Here's what she got on home ice:

60.56 33.21 27.35 6.68 6.61 6.96 6.86 7.07 Osmond SP, SC

At #35 on the ISU World Ranking list, Kaetlyn won't be in the final two flights to skate the SP, and like it or not, the judges hold down the PCS for the earlier skaters. Kim, Kostner and Asada should score around (or even above) 70 in the SP; Murakami, Suzuki, Wagner, Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva could score upper 60s. If Osmond skates a clean short, she might score in the 60-65 range, but that might not be enough to put her in the final flight for the FS.

Finally, Worlds may be on Canadian ice, but there will be no Canadian judge on the panel. The lineup: BUL, DEN, EST, FIN, CEO, GER, GBR, JPN, ROU, RSA, ESP, SUI, TUR.

IMO, it would take more than one top-ranking skater to tank for Osmond to make the podium. I'd say at least 5 or 6 would need to fail spectacularly for that to happen.

 

[bekalc]

To be fair, this is not a case ala sending Ashley Wagner to Jr. Worlds in 2009, Agnes Z in 2011 or Christina Gao in 2012 or Denis Ten for the last several years where you're sending seasoned senior competitors to Jr. Worlds for an easy victory. While Samantha is "old" by some people's standards from her personal career development standpoint she very much was competing as a junior. She has never competed at a Senior Grand Prix or even a Senior B and the fact is injuries (to Samantha's chagrin, I'm sure) has delayed her ability to advance in the ranks.

And let's face it NOT all 19-year-old women have maturity or great artistry skills either, so the fact that Samantha has this edge because she's 19, IMO, is a bit flawed. Gracie Gold was also older than many of her competitors last season and lost to Julie L, but she didn't get an automatic pass as far as being older=being mature= higher PCS.

Also, I'm a bit mixed on lowering the Jr. age limit, not everybody develops at the same time or are phenoms at a young age, a la Hanyu. I feel lowering the age would rush too many people to Seniors when they're not clearly ready for it. On the other hand if it means more people at Senior B's then perhaps I could support it.

I didn't say all 19 year olds are going to be more mature, wonderful artists. But I'm saying that in general people are ragging on these young Russians for things that are common issues with 13 year olds. How many 13 year olds really do have a great appreciation/understanding of music?

When I was in eighth grade my father took me to see Handel's Messiah. I hated it and was bored the entire time, I was also bored in a classical concert. My dad thought I would be interested because I have a good singing voice and was singing my entire life not professionally or anything like that but in Church etc.

However two years later and it probably had to do with me going to a high school choir and getting more exposure with better music I grew to love classical music. I began buying cds and listening to it a lot.

Now sure are there some 19 year olds who don't even have great music sense. However even these tend to be better at 19 than they were at 13. Back when Kwan was 13, Harding who never was a mature skater-was the more mature skater.

If Cesario didn't have a finer presentation than these 13 year olds, than there would be pretty much no hope for her. I"m not saying she's this experienced competitor but I am saying of course she's going to have more maturity.

But is she the "better skater" in terms of speed/power many are saying the Russian kids are better.

I guess the point I"m making is that I don't think it would be fair to give Cesario this big huge PCS boost over the other 3 or even than Anna just because she's more mature. Because that would be the reason for it.... And it would have taken that big huge PCS boost to overcome the TES deficit.

Now I could see the argument if it was in Seniors where I expect to see a greater sense of artistic maturity. But this Juniors and 13 year olds shouldn't be penalized for being 13 in Juniors.

 

[auga]

Finally after all these little girls a real woman was on the ice.

Well, that's what happens when a 19 year old goes to a competition that IS for little girls...

 

[sky_fly20]

Well, that's what happens when a 19 year old goes to a competition that IS for little girls...

 

[bekalc]

Finally after all these little girls a real woman was on the ice.

This is Junior Worlds. Samantha is a prettier skater than the other three right now however, she's not necessarily better in terms of basic. Many are saying the younger Russians have more speed/power in their skating. Elena has gotten tons of comments about her edges...

Thing is in Juniors, they are probably focusing on the basics because they probably aren't expecting JUNIORS to have the greatest maturity in the world. Of course Samantha who is a legal adult is going to look more mature than these youngsters.

In terms of the young Russians who knows who will last and who won't. The Russians though seem to have an endless supply of these youngsters.

Next year they have a youngster coming up who may be the very best of all of the young Russian "wonder"s to come out. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pl_AKA22cG8&feature=player_embedded

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

It's not about penalizing skaters for being 13 or 19. It's about scoring them according to the standards they are skating by.

 

[bekalc]

It's not about penalizing skaters for being 13 or 19. It's about scoring them according to the standards they are skating by.

But this is a junior skating event. So should maturity be this huge factor? Should factors like basic skating be taken into account too....Sam would have needed a 9 point advantage over Anna on PCS in order to get the bronze. Do you really think that's fair considering the fact that Anna skating has more power, and yes Sam's more mature but she's also far older. Is it fair to ding Anna hard for skating like a Junior in Juniors.

 

[chuckm]

Considering that Pogorilaya skated a very messy FS, I thought she should have been dinged a lot harder than she was. I also think every one of Samantha's component scores should have been 0.5 higher than Pogo's. Pogo did one sloppy jump after the other with no relationship to the music playing as background. But it seemed the judging panel (3 SSRs, 4 Euros, 1 Asian, 1 NA) didn't want any more NA skaters on the podium.

 

[bekalc]

Considering that Pogorilaya skated a very messy FS, I thought she should have been dinged a lot harder than she was. I also think every one of Samantha's component scores should have been 0.5 higher than Pogo's. Pogo did one sloppy jump after the other with no relationship to the music playing as background. But it seemed the judging panel (3 SSRs, 4 Euros, 1 Asian, 1 NA) didn't want any more NA skaters on the podium.

I thought she was quite messy to and would have dinged her harder but how much harder...

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

But this is a junior skating event. So should maturity be this huge factor? Should factors like basic skating be taken into account too....Sam would have needed a 9 point advantage over Anna on PCS in order to get the bronze. Do you really think that's fair considering the fact that Anna skating has more power, and yes Sam's more mature but she's also far older. Is it fair to ding Anna hard for skating like a Junior in Juniors.

I haven't seen Anna's skate. Nor Cesario's. But the way you frame the argument is what's bothering me and what I'm debating. The program components are laid out. Junior and senior skaters are judged according to the same set of rules - there isn't any adjustment made downward for juniors. So the fact that it is a junior skating event isn't relevant.

FWIW, the word "maturity" doesn't come up in PCS explanations.

 

[silverlake22]

When I watched Pogo's slate again it wasn't that messy. The second 3lz, 2a, and 3f-2t-2t were all landed fine, the 3s was just a bit forward, so basically she had visible trouble landing 2 very hard combinations (3lz-3t and 2a-3t) and then a 3lo at the end of her program. Samantha didn't try a 3lz-3t or 2a-3t. Her skate may have been a bit sloppy but the bottom line is Anna landed 7 fully rotated triple jumps in that skate. If she had tried more conservative content like just 3lz-2t and 2a-2t, she'd have 2 slight landing errors instead of 4, but the thing is by going for these hard combos and rotating the second jumps, she gave herself a bit of a cushion in terms of points. A 3lz-3t with a stepout on the landing (-2 GOE) is still worth about 8 points, about the same or a bit more than a 3lz-2t.

 

[semosk8tfan]

This is what I find confusing about "JR" worlds. Many of the competitors skated at their SR nationals which to me should exclude them from JR worlds. Pick one or the other and stick to it. I loved Samantha's skate but she looked liked a young adult crashing the kids party. I know it was all within the rules but it still looks crazy to me.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

This is what I find confusing about "JR" worlds. Many of the competitors skated at their SR nationals which to me should exclude them from JR worlds. Pick one or the other and stick to it. I loved Samantha's skate but she looked liked a young adult crashing the kids party. I know it was all within the rules but it still looks crazy to me.

Radionova and Lipnitskaia compete at senior nationals as well. In Canada, if a skater wins their junior nationals, they have to compete as senior. Nguyen had to compete senior nationally before he was age eligible to do seniors internationally (I don't think he is yet).

 

[bekalc]

Radionova and Lipnitskaia compete at senior nationals as well. In Canada, if a skater wins their junior nationals, they have to compete as senior. Nguyen had to compete senior nationally before he was age eligible to do seniors internationally (I don't think he is yet).

How nations handle their own nationals is their business. Both Radionova and Leonova are too young for Seniors. Personally I think 19 as the cut of for Junior ladies is ridiculous. I don't think the age should be monolithic across the disciplines. 19 is not a Junior age for ladies, since 1984 only two Olympic Champions have been older than 19, and neither Witt nor Arakawa were competiting at Junior Worlds at 19. Witt in fact was winning the Olympics at 19 in 1984. Junior worlds and the Junior Grand Prix should be mainly for the younger skaters to get their feet wet into international competition. I'm fine with leaving maybe a two year gap and saying 17. But I think your passed high school you shouldn't be at Junior Worlds if you are a Single ladies skater.. A better Senior B system would be more appropriate.

Radionova isn't allowed to jump her way into Senior Championship competitions, how fair is it to let the more maturer competitors PCS their way into Junior competitions? Especially since Juniors is designated for the juniors. Its suppose to give young future stars of the sport the opportunity to compete with their peers. And yes the arguments for Cesario a lot of them are based on flaws the young Russians have that are natural issues with 13-14 year olds.

I do think 19 would be fairly appropriate for men because 19 is a fairly younger age in men's skating.

 

[chuckm]

Skaters get ISU World Ranking points for JGP events and Junior Worlds. Junior Internationals get NO ranking points; older junior-eligible skaters would have to compete as Seniors in the B events to get any ranking points, and even then they'd have to finish in the top 5. And of course 99% of all B events are held in Europe. USFS isn't going to spend the $$ to send older juniors to Europe.

And BTW, there are lots of 18- and 19-yo European junior level skaters. They get to skate in JGPs and JW as well. It's not just Cesario. Canada sent Samson to JW as a 19-year-old and no one thought anything of it. But then, she was never a medal candidate.

 

[hippomoomin]

How nations handle their own nationals is their business. Both Radionova and Leonova are too young for Seniors. Personally I think 19 as the cut of for Junior ladies is ridiculous. I don't think the age should be monolithic across the disciplines. 19 is not a Junior age for ladies, since 1984 only two Olympic Champions have been older than 19, and neither Witt nor Arakawa were competiting at Junior Worlds at 19. Witt in fact was winning the Olympics at 19 in 1984. Junior worlds and the Junior Grand Prix should be mainly for the younger skaters to get their feet wet into international competition. I'm fine with leaving maybe a two year gap and saying 17. But I think your passed high school you shouldn't be at Junior Worlds if you are a Single ladies skater.. A better Senior B system would be more appropriate.

Radionova isn't allowed to jump her way into Senior Championship competitions, how fair is it to let the more maturer competitors PCS their way into Junior competitions? Especially since Juniors is designated for the juniors. Its suppose to give young future stars of the sport the opportunity to compete with their peers. And yes the arguments for Cesario a lot of them are based on flaws the young Russians have that are natural issues with 13-14 year olds.

I do think 19 would be fairly appropriate for men because 19 is a fairly younger age in men's skating.

You made a very good point. 19 is definitely too old to be counted as junior. Plus some pretty good skaters, like Flatt retired already at the age of 19, and Gao almost did.

 

[chuckm]

The ISU definition of JUNIOR is for single skaters: those who have attained the age of 13 by July 1 of the year before the Championships and have not reached the age of 19 by that same date.

Junior championships are NOT "suppose to give young future stars of the sport the opportunity to compete with their peers". That is what the JGP events were created to do.

The Junior World Championship is for THE BEST Junior-eligible skaters of the World to compete against one another. Some skaters will be better technicians than others, some will have far better presentation qualities, and a few will combine the best technical elements and great presentation skills.

Samantha Cesario was born in August, so as of July 1, 2012 she was 18 and eligible to compete at 2013 Junior worlds. That she was 19 at the time of Junior Worlds is irrelevant. Although she did not perform the most difficult technical elements, she certainly did give one of the best performances, and that was not reflected in her PCS scores. In effect, she was a victim of age discrimination.