State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season

[clairecloutier]

I agree, I find her rather overrated by several posters on the forums. .

I have to agree, I think Angela has a lot of potential, but she isn't quite there yet. She does have lovely soft knees and wonderful flow, yet at the same time, I found her LP at Nationals a bit boring. I think she needs to add a little more spark and attack to her skating. She's very promising, I just don't see her being ready for Sochi or Worlds next year.

 

[ForeverFish]

From what I have heard, she's already WELL aware of the increase in pressure for this coming season as it's already started from the time Worlds was over. I suspect she's going to stick with a "conservative" layout of elements (ie the one that was most consistent this year for the LP) and not add anything new into the mix so she can skate clean and confident. I also am pretty sure that her SP will contain the 3Lz+3T right from the get go and not try the 3F+3T (which, as I said, getting an "e" call probably was messing with her head on the combo) this season. Making changes late in the game doesn't help consistency or attempting to fix the e call on the flip probably didn't help the combo either. I have little concerns about Gold because her demeanor since she's been back from Worlds and WTT has been totally different than before (in a good way).

Hmm, Gracie has actually said that she's planning on increasing her technical difficulty for the Olympic season. But I guess we'll have to wait and see.

 

[vera01]

Hmm, Gracie has actually said that she's planning on increasing her technical difficulty for the Olympic season. But I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Hmm, does it mean that she's going back to her original layout(pre-US Nationals layout), or would she be adding 3A?

 

[tulosai]

Ashley, Gracie, Agnes, Mirai, Christina and Alissa will all be skating under a ton of pressure b/c they will know this is a last shot for them (well, not for Gracie but everyone else probably). That kind of pressure is tough to handle; therefore, we may see some implosions.

I love all of these Vancouver hold-overs but I'm ready to see the newer girls make some strides...

Agnes = 18 years old, 23 at the next Olys
Mirai =20 years old, 24 at the next Olys
Christina= 19 years old, 23 at the next Olys

Given the trends recently with the top contenders being older (Yuna will be 23 at the Olys, Mao 23, Kostner 26 (almost 27), Wagner 22, Suzuki 28 (almost 29!), Korpi 25) I see no reason why, should they choose to do so, any of those girls could not commit for 4 more years. Gracie doubtless will. Alyssa is done, but that is the only one I think you're for sure right about.

While not all the skaters I list are medal contenders, they are all definitively in the mix for the top 5, and will all quite possibly be in the top 10. Around half of them didn't have consistent success of any kind till later in their careers, or at the very least have had their greatest success recently, in the last quad. Now, there are differences between some of them and Mirai, Christina, Agnes, for sure, and in their situations (i.e. loaded younger US ladies field rapidly encroaching) for sure. However, some skaters peak later than others and if they really evaluate and decide they want to stay in it, I don't see why they can't. I'm not gonna view this season as their death knell necessarily.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Agnes = 18 years old, 23 at the next Olys
Mirai =20 years old, 24 at the next Olys
Christina= 19 years old, 23 at the next Olys

Given the trends recently with the top contenders being older (Yuna will be 23 at the Olys, Mao 23, Kostner 26 (almost 27), Wagner 22, Suzuki 28 (almost 29!), Korpi 25) I see no reason why, should they choose to do so, any of those girls could not commit for 4 more years. Gracie doubtless will. Alyssa is done, but that is the only one I think you're for sure right about.

I can't see Mirai staying another 4 years. Her results the last few years have been disheartening and I can't imagine she would stay motivated for much longer if she continues to finish outside the top 5 at Nationals. Agnes seems like she could stay, and Christina has balanced college and skating very well; why shouldn't she continue?

 

[Icey]

Koster will turn 27 the day after the Olympics start, February 7.


Gold has outscored Ashely in the long program both at nationals and worlds. She will, I think, move ahead of Ashley next season, both nationally and internationally.

 

[chuckm]

Gracie won't move ahead of Ashley internationally unless Gracie has a clean SP and ups her PCS scores. At Worlds, Gracie beat Ashley in TES in the FS but not in the SP, while Ashley beat Gracie on PCS in both segments by a total of 5.14 points. Gracie needs better choreography and she has to work on selling her programs to get a big enough PCS increase to beat Ashley.

Nationally, Gracie could come out on top if she has two clean programs and Ashley makes a mistake or two.

 

[R.D.]

Gold has outscored Ashely in the long program both at nationals and worlds. She will, I think, move ahead of Ashley next season, both nationally and internationally.

Same here. (and Gold even beat her in the SP at WTT)

I'm as curious to see Wagner's response as I am to see how Gold progresses next year. I think when you look at raw talent, Gold has the edge...she just needs to get more comfortable and consistent in competition and she will become the top US lady. Reputation ("street cred" if you will) is probably the only advantage Wagner currently has over Gold, and we know how fleeting that is for anyone not named Kostner or Kim.

 

[Icey]

We'll just have to agree to disagree. The difference in Gold's and Wagner's total score at Worlds was 3.09. That is not a lot to make up. In the long program, Gold's score was 2.04 pts higher than Ashley's. A slightly better short program (she was 9th) or long program score there with no increase in pcs score would have put her ahead then. Gold already has a 3/3 in both her long and short. Whether Ashley has one in either program remains to be seen. Gold has very little to make up in points and I think she will do it and move past Ashley. Her pcs scores will rise some and Ashely's remain about where they are imo. And I don't think Ashley's coaching situation will help her. It takes times to get used to a new coach even if they aren't your full-time coach. Mills the secondary coach was there with ashley day to day, not Nicks. A skater like Gold has to be full of confidence after such a good showing at her first worlds.

 

[R.D.]

Too soon to tell (or even speculate) how Wagner's coaching situation will affect her in the short term, but to me, one thing is clear: independent of that, her days as US #1 are numbered. Gold started out rough and second-tier range, but by mid-season she was already nipping at Wagner's heels.

Like I said earlier, she (Gold) just has to become a stronger competitor. Once/if she does, no one in the US will be able to match her IMO.

 

[dorispulaski]

In this vein, it's interesting to hear what Sandra Bezic had to say in her recent interview with Dave & Jenny.

She was asked about her impressions of this year's Worlds.

http://www.theskatinglesson.com/sandra-bezic-interview-part-4/

She discusses Gracie at the 9:40 mark & following-she was asked what she would do with her as a choreographer.

She feels Gracie has "star written all over her" and compares her to a 14 year old Dorothy Hamill that Bezic saw at a competition at Lake Placid-that you just knew already how good she was going to be. And then offers advice.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Gold has outscored Ashely in the long program both at nationals and worlds. She will, I think, move ahead of Ashley next season, both nationally and internationally.

One would think so, but you can't assume Gold's trajectory is going to stay upwards. NNN, Mirai, Kimmie, Sarah and others all peaked as teens then for various reasons became non-factors. I am hopeful because Gracie's technique is so solid but you really just never know. Gracie obviously has more upside than Ashley, but I think it is more likely that Ashley will maintain her level next year than Gracie.

 

[R.D.]

One would think so, but you can't assume Gold's trajectory is going to stay upwards.

Another valid point - we don't know. And also, there is the injury factor, which is a big deal especially for a skater pushing the technical envelope.

In order, I'd say the biggest hurdles that could stand in her way are: injury, inconsistency (collapsing under pressure), and then finally, stagnation (showing no improvement over last season/not living up to hype).

On the track she is heading on right now, assuming all remains well, she will catch up to Wagner by early next season and bypass her by Nationals. She doesn't even have to win Nationals, but if she and Wagner end up on the Olympic team, I have a feeling Gold will be the higher finisher of the two. We may be looking at Gold as our medal contender in ladies instead of Wagner...

But that is the optimistic view of things. The pessimistic view is that the overwhelming feeling she experienced at SC last year and again in the SP at Nationals (and 4CCs) will creep up on her again with the stress of the Olympic season, and end up holding her back. I still remember the stunning collapse of McLaughlin/Brubaker at 2010 Nationals and think that Gold could be vulnerable to such a collapse next year if she doesn't stay grounded. It's happened once already.

We just don't know. Until we see some skating again, we can only speculate.

I think it is more likely that Ashley will maintain her level next year than Gracie.

I'm unsure about that...for many reasons, only one of them which I will discuss.

Keep in mind, Wagner is a skater who has been on the scene for several years and seems to be at her peak now. Of course, once you're at your peak, there's nowhere to go but down. Also, it is unknown whether attempting more difficult elements will lead to inconsistency, or worse, injury. After a hot streak, she has already taken 5 falls in her previous 3 freeskates, not counting WTT. She is quickly losing her billing as top US lady, having been upstaged by Gold twice in the FS (and in one of them, Gold had mistakes of her own). I would argue that probably more than ever now, she runs the risk of stagnating or even regressing if she is not careful with the choices she makes throughout the offseason and beginning of next season.

 

[Jammers]

One would think so, but you can't assume Gold's trajectory is going to stay upwards. NNN, Mirai, Kimmie, Sarah and others all peaked as teens then for various reasons became non-factors. I am hopeful because Gracie's technique is so solid but you really just never know. Gracie obviously has more upside than Ashley, but I think it is more likely that Ashley will maintain her level next year than Gracie.

I don't think you can compare Gracie to someone like NNN for instance. NNN had one great skate as a 13 year old then grew about 5 inches in the next year and got injured and was done. Sarah had a pretty good career even without winning the OGM then basically retired and Kimmie was losing her jumps at the age Gracie is. As for Mirai she had the potential but nerves a suspect work habit and her body changing on her has had a bad effect on her plus she has trouble rotating her jumps. Gracie needs to stay healthy keep working on her weaknesses and become a even better competitor and learn how to really perform.

 

[ForeverFish]

Hmm, does it mean that she's going back to her original layout(pre-US Nationals layout), or would she be adding 3A?

She didn't specify, but I wouldn't be surprised to see her making another attempt at the 3F-Lo-3S. The 3A is always a risk that's rarely worth it, even for a skater of Gracie's jumping ability.

 

[Jammers]

The last thing Gracie needs to do in an Olympic year is try landing a 3axel. We've seen how at times it's played havoc with Mao's skating and she's been doing them for about 8 years now. Best to just keep working on the jumps she knows she can land and work on the "e" calls she gets on her 3flip.

 

[tulosai]

The last thing Gracie needs to do in an Olympic year is try landing a 3axel. We've seen how at times it's played havoc with Mao's skating and she's been doing them for about 8 years now. Best to just keep working on the jumps she knows she can land and work on the "e" calls she gets on her 3flip.

I agree. If this is a serious goal of hers, better to begin working on it the year after and see how it treats her at a less crucial time.

 

[Icey]

The last thing Gracie needs to do in an Olympic year is try landing a 3axel. We've seen how at times it's played havoc with Mao's skating and she's been doing them for about 8 years now. Best to just keep working on the jumps she knows she can land and work on the "e" calls she gets on her 3flip.

Gold had been doing a triple flip-half-loop-triple salchow combination, but the points weren't worth the risk. She may resume practicing that combo and also might work on a triple axel, the toughest jump for a female skater and a signature jump for Japan's Mao Asada, who won the world bronze.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...old-usa-figure-skating-next-big-star/1994885/

 

[R.D.]

I think it would be a mistake to go for the 3A. I agree, it has delivered mixed results for Asada and may not be worth the risk. 3-3s are her best bet. If she really wants to up the ante, why not try two 3-3s in the FS?

 

[vera01]

I think it would be a mistake to go for the 3A. I agree, it has delivered mixed results for Asada and may not be worth the risk. 3-3s are her best bet. If she really wants to up the ante, why not try two 3-3s in the FS?

I don't think it would increase her BV as there's a Zayak rule.