Lysacek's road to Sochi starts to get serious

[pangtongfan]

I wouldnt be one bit surprised if none of Chan, Lysacek, or Plushenko are on the podium in Sochi. In fact I will be extremely surprised if either Plushenko or Lysacek are on the Sochi podium, and not one bit surprised if neither of them are even at the Games period. Chan is the only one of those three who is a real contender but I could see him coming anywhere from 1st to 5th at this point (I have a feeling it will be 3rd or 4th though).

 

[Skater Boy]

Wonderful chatter. Evan has that Katarina Witt thing going on in some ways. You wonder how he won - oh no here comes the defenders and attackers lol, with no quad in Vancouver and really not the skating skills or style of Lambiel, Chan or even a Buttle who though not in Vancouver you get the idea. Evan is a good competitor and somehow things go his way so he might get a bit of luck and win nationals or second. His quads are like alot of skaters and we are afraid to say it but all talk but can they do it when it counts. Chan, Fernandez and Reynolds (maybe Plushy if he heals in time) are probably the most consistent but even they make mistakes. Next Joubert, Takahashi, Kozuka, hanyu are fairly solid but Evan has yet to show he has the mettle. It might be best if he tries to make the US team and pull s out or fades into the darkness. I really would like Chan, Takahasi and Hanyu or Fernandez or heck Max or Reynolds to have thier moment in the sun on the podium. But Evan is a figher and Evan is able to seize the day when it counts and Evan is Evan - lucky and seems to skate well enough to do what needs to be done. Don't count him out.

 

[sky_fly20]

well, he'll have to make it through nationals first, lol
with Max, Dornbush, Farris, even Abbott will be ahead of him

 

[plushyfan]

does that award have anything to do with this website/forum?

Nothing. But I'm sure many people think if they will be contenders again, then they will be enemies. Seems it isn't true.

 

[sky_fly20]

getting into top 6 with the contenders he has, no way unless others implode of course
he may think he is seeking redemption but Aaron is the No.1 American
his chances of making the team is almost the same as Wier

boring quadless Evan can try a quad but at least we'll get to see a rear view form him with that, lol

 

[jennyanydots]

Something that struck me in the article was this:

"He's recovering from his injuries and his surgeries which were a lot more extensive than a lot of people know. It's getting better and better but he is in pain and he has to be very careful with how much he does. I don't know in figure skating if someone has tried to come back from that level of injury."

I'm curious as to this assertion by Mr Carroll (specifically the part I've underlined - not the former part, which I've merely quoted for context). Thoughts?

Not to be cynical or pessimistic but maybe training hasn't been going that well so he's putting that out there as an excuse should Evan fail. I don't doubt that he's in pain though. As seen in the past the stress of quad training is too much for his body to handle, probably due to his size and tendency to overtrain. No intended disrespect to Mr. Carroll, but I feel that sometimes his comments need to be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[silverlake22]

Yeah Evan might compete at SkAm for the hell of it, but I doubt he does well and if that's the case he won't be at Nationals. Max can muscle his way through any jump and can do two different quads, Joshua already has youth on his side and pristine technique with +2 3a and 3a-3t and is capable of beautiful 4t (maybe now in combo), even with URs Adam's 4lz is worth tons of points and his spins are stronger than Evan, Jason is decent jump wise but also has youth on his side and is exceptional in everything else - no way Evan can match his spin and step GOE (at least, he shouldn't), Richard can do 4s and 4t now and like Joshua his 3a is way stronger than Evan, Ross and Jeremy are more questionable but Ross has likely worked on his technique and his 3a is better than Evan's at least, Jeremy's is a lot better and he's the sentimental favorite so Evan would likely have a hard time beating those 2 healthy even and there are more guys that are dangerous than them, like Messing if he ever skates anywhere close to clean will have huge scores. I think Evan is just up against too much to have a real shot at making a team with 2 spots after 3 years of not competing and coming back from an injury. Plus he's getting old. 27 year old body's don't deal with the wear and tear so well as an 18 year old, even at Nationals, commentators were saying how it's fun to watch the younger guys practice (Joshua was the example but they also may have mentioned Jason, Keegan, maybe Max) because they have a lot of energy and youthful exuberance.

 

[Jammers]

Evan is actually 28 now.

 

[SkateFan66]

Evan is actually 28 now.

And he is one day older than Jeremy Abbott. Therefore, I get a good laugh every time someone says Evan is too old to compete, but does not say that Jeremy is too old to compete.

I can't remember, was Plushenko 27 or 28 in Vancouver?

 

[sky_fly20]

He'll have to beat Aaaron, Dornbush, Miner and Abbott
and I expect Farris to competitive in his senior debut
Wier and quadless Lysacek are on the same boat, I doubt both will even show up in competition
Evan should just go to broadway, he'll embarass himself finishing 6-10th at Nationals

 

[Icey]

No way Evan will finish 6-10 at Nationals unless he skates severely injured. He will be on the podium.

 

[ForeverFish]

No way Evan will finish 6-10 at Nationals unless he skates severely injured. He will be on the podium.

Agreed. Right now, of the current batch of US men, Max Aaron is the only one with a good chance of actually beating Evan in a head-on competition. Remember that, even quadless, Evan is a veteran who knows how to skate to get points. And, if his condition continues to improve throughout the fall, I can't imagine him leaving those points on the table by not jumping quads at Nationals.

He might not qualify for the Olympics, but if he's at Nationals, I don't expect him to deliver a half-cooked performance. He'll be there to win, or at the very least, to get on the podium.

 

[sky_fly20]

Agreed. Right now, of the current batch of US men, Max Aaron is the only one with a good chance of actually beating Evan in a head-on competition. Remember that, even quadless, Evan is a veteran who knows how to skate to get points. And, if his condition continues to improve throughout the fall, I can't imagine him leaving those points on the table by not jumping quads at Nationals.

He might not qualify for the Olympics, but if he's at Nationals, I don't expect him to deliver a half-cooked performance. He'll be there to win, or at the very least, to get on the podium.

that would be an embarassment wouldnt it ?
considering the US many talented you men

Evan is actually 28 now.
And he is one day older than Jeremy Abbott. Therefore, I get a good laugh every time someone says Evan is too old to compete, but does not say that Jeremy is too old to compete.

I can't remember, was Plushenko 27 or 28 in Vancouver?

Zhenya is a freak of nature like Kim Yuna
who can almost come back at anytime and still be competitive
I cant say the same for groin hampered boring Lysaceck

 

[Jaana]

I believe that if Evan needs to be first or second at the US Nationals, he will do that.

 

[silverlake22]

And he is one day older than Jeremy Abbott. Therefore, I get a good laugh every time someone says Evan is too old to compete, but does not say that Jeremy is too old to compete.

I can't remember, was Plushenko 27 or 28 in Vancouver?

They are both "older", which is why I am not optimistic about the quad success for either one of them and would not be surprised if Dornbush and Farris, and maybe even Brown, Miner, Rippon, or Messing, walked right past both of them at Nationals. Max Aaron is pretty much a given to make the team, and I tend to think a driven 18 year old on the rise and a very athletic 22 year old with two different quads have a pretty decent chance of outskating a pair of 28 year olds, both coming off of recent injuries, one with a long history of instability in competition whose quad was hit-or-miss even during his prime a few years back, the other a former champion, but who has been away from competition for 3 full years and is still recovering from a pretty serious injury and never had a consistent quad and whose 3a was of sketchy quality during his prime, come Nationals.

Plushenko was 28 in Vancouver, yes, but like someone mentioned, he is a freak of nature, and further, he lost gold to a quadless, conservative Lysacek, and the rest of the field was similarly conservative in the competition, made lots of mistakes, or were conservative AND made lots of mistakes.

Similarly, Yu Na Kim, the most talented ladies jumper in years and years, could not overtake a conservative Miki Ando with a 5 triple FS for the World title when she came back after less than 1 year away from competition, without a major injury, at the age of 20, and was competing against a pretty weak field (weak as in the high level skaters were not skating their best).

If those two legends couldn't win, why do people think Lysacek can given all he's up against?

 

[plushyfan]

Plushenko was 28 in Vancouver, yes, but like someone mentioned, he is a freak of nature, and further, he lost gold to a quadless, conservative Lysacek, and the rest of the field was similarly conservative in the competition, made lots of mistakes, or were conservative AND made lots of mistakes.

Plushenko was 27 y.o. and 3 month in Vancouver. And he lost, because Evan was overscored in SP. Lp's scores were almost Ok.

 

[KwanIsALegend]

well, he'll have to make it through nationals first, lol
with Max, Dornbush, Farris, even Abbott will be ahead of him

A little off topic, but this just made me excited for this season to start! Who doesn't love Olympic years?

I am not a huge Evan fan but it will be interesting to see him come back. I hope he does the GP events and doesn't pull a Sasha and just do nationals. I think I see Yuna being a strong repeat for the OGM more than I do for Eavn.

 

[gmyers]

They are both "older", which is why I am not optimistic about the quad success for either one of them and would not be surprised if Dornbush and Farris, and maybe even Brown, Miner, Rippon, or Messing, walked right past both of them at Nationals. Max Aaron is pretty much a given to make the team, and I tend to think a driven 18 year old on the rise and a very athletic 22 year old with two different quads have a pretty decent chance of outskating a pair of 28 year olds, both coming off of recent injuries, one with a long history of instability in competition whose quad was hit-or-miss even during his prime a few years back, the other a former champion, but who has been away from competition for 3 full years and is still recovering from a pretty serious injury and never had a consistent quad and whose 3a was of sketchy quality during his prime, come Nationals.

Plushenko was 28 in Vancouver, yes, but like someone mentioned, he is a freak of nature, and further, he lost gold to a quadless, conservative Lysacek, and the rest of the field was similarly conservative in the competition, made lots of mistakes, or were conservative AND made lots of mistakes.

Similarly, Yu Na Kim, the most talented ladies jumper in years and years, could not overtake a conservative Miki Ando with a 5 triple FS for the World title when she came back after less than 1 year away from competition, without a major injury, at the age of 20, and was competing against a pretty weak field (weak as in the high level skaters were not skating their best).

If those two legends couldn't win, why do people think Lysacek can given all he's up against?

Yes that field of us nationals young people looks impressive!

To be sarcastic and quote others "because lysacek works hardest!" lol Rolleyes

Just as I laugh at your post for a number of reasons:

1. I laugh that you imply Abbott who has missed making the U.S World team during a dire period for U.S mens skating 2 of the last 3 years, and has not even qualified for the Grand Prix final or won a regular grand prix since 2009, is on some planet "competitive" right now. Is there a single person who implies or suggests Abbott is a medal contender for Sochi, if he even makes it there? Hell no. Not a good example, unless you are only attempting to discuss Evan's chances to make the U.S Olympic team (which 28 year old Abbott at this point is even a real long shot for).

2. That Lysacek is a Plushenko, one of the all time great male skaters and an icon who completely dominated the sport in his prime years. Plushenko went from crushing a post Yagudin field, winning Olympic Gold by 30 points, to losing against the virtually same field of men at the next Olympics, and probably would have been as low as 5th or 6th had it been a well skated event. So a skater who was never far ahead of the pack even in their peak years would definitely be doing alot more than just dropping to silver.


and to lesser degree worth noting:

3. that even beating someone like Abbott at Nationals would be some breeze for Evan when in his all time peak years in 2009 and 2010 when he won Worlds and Olympics, he couldnt even beat Abbott at Nationals. Let alone for certain beating the guys who are more likely to make Sochi than Abbott (for the record I do think if Evan shows up at Nationals he has a fighting shot at the team along with about 6 others, but whichever the U.S men send to Sochi have no hope in hell of a medal, other than maybe if Aaron lands 5 quads, has improved his PCS a huge deal, and the event is a splatfest).

4. The technical requirements in mens skating are on another planet from what they were in Vancouver when most of the field couldnt even do a quad or triple axel (or both), and was in the midst of the 2008-2010 lull when mens skating went backwards about 30 years technically briefly.

I would assume that the lesson of plushenko 2010 is you must keep up with what is winning events - what is winning worlds. When no winners are doing quads - you don't do them!! When all skaters have 3/5 jump layouts you do a 3/5 jump layout! If people's three jump combos have moved to 3-2-2 you do 3-2-2. Now in 2014 it's looking like quad in sp and lp. Sp layout 2/1 lp layout 3/5. Get a Canadian cop expert to do chroeo!!! Lysacek certainly has a history of following what wins and plushenko didn't.

 

[ForeverFish]

I don't think anyone believes Evan has a realistic chance of winning OGM. The men's field is the strongest that it's been in years, and the leaders right now -- Patrick, Javier, Yuzuru -- all have multiple, consistent quads planned across both programs. Evan, while he knows what he needs to do to get on the Olympic podium, actually has to get out there and do it. I would be surprised if he has more than one quad planned in his free skate; he showed that he really doesn't think much of the new technical requirements in his most recent IceNetwork interview.

I have far less doubts about him making the national podium, if only because Max is currently the only US man with a consistent quad. Adam has plans for a quad Lutz that most likely won't pan out; Jeremy is far more of an artist than a technician; Ross and Ricky blow hot and cold without warning; Josh and Jason, while wonderful, still need that extra umph that they probably won't get until after Sochi. Max for 2014!

 

[gmyers]

I assume lysacek would try to attempt what wins but doubt his execution would be successful! And if he tried 2010 all over again that would be totally lol!!!