Can Yuzuru Hanyu close the gap on Patrick Chan?

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

The 2002 Olympics. In the long program Tim Goebel did 3 quads, including a quad Sal in the second half, and two triple Axels.

Plushenko did everything he could to make up for a fall in the short: 4T+3T+3Lo, 4T, and 3A+half-loop+3F.

Yagudin did two quads but only one of his two planned triple Axels. Scott Hamilton. commenting on television, said that Yagudin was conceding the LP.

Yagudin got first place ordinals from every judge and collected four 6.0s in presentation to win the gold.

Yup, this is the example of a competition where a skater, Goebel, was (to use cheerio2's words) "technically superior to the field" with 3 quads and 2 triple axels, but lost due to less artistry and not being one of the favourites. Yagudin, while the least technically ambitious, had the best balance of jumps and artistry and certainly deserved the gold. His LP still stands as the hardest jumps landed by an Olympic champion, even if Plushenko and Goebel had harder jumps on the day.

 

[emdee]

I'd say Hanyu has better variety to his positions, but Chan has more solid, clean positions and centering. They're both good spinners for various reasons.

I have to agree that Chans centering is really solid. Hanyu has such a flexible body that his positions look amazing.

 

[Icey]

The fact that Hanyu beat Chan at the GPF may help Hanyu in the PCS/GOE department. Like it or not, reputation does play a role in how the judges perceive skaters.

Another aspect favorable to Hanyu: Sochi is a resort area, a cleaner environment for an athlete with asthma.

Who knows what the air quality will be like by the time of the games? Great environmental damage is being done by preparation for the the games.

http://ens-newswire.com/2013/02/11/dark-side-of-the-sochi-winter-olympics-environmental-damage/

 

[Srin Odessa]

A lot depends on whether Hanyu's PCS were a one time thing at a domestic event or he is now a member of the Chan/Takahashi/Fernandez club of PCS scores.

The 2002 Olympics. In the long program Tim Goebel did 3 quads, including a quad Sal in the second half, and two triple Axels.

Plushenko did everything he could to make up for a fall in the short: 4T+3T+3Lo, 4T, and 3A+half-loop+3F.

Yagudin did two quads but only one of his two planned triple Axels. Scott Hamilton. commenting on television, said that Yagudin was conceding the LP.

Yagudin got first place ordinals from every judge and collected four 6.0s in presentation to win the gold.

Don't forget Goebel backloaded half his jumps, included a solo quad salchow. It really makes the quad controversy in 2010 much more hilarious since Plushenko fell on his quad in the short and only landed two in the FS during Salt Lake. He came out with a silver over Goebel who landed four clean quads across two programs.

 

[sky_fly20]

Chan cant even afford to fall once as Yuzuru is on his back

just as predicted, Yuzuru is the No.1 man leading for Sochi
and just realized he is currently ranked No.1 on the World Standings now too

 

[cheerio2]

^^^Patrick does not seemed like a very good skater? He is the currently the best. Hanyu's skating skills is still below Patrick's and Daisuke's. He may have speed but he does not have the complex transitions.

His jumps are just a good as Hanyu's and no means small as you propagated. Hanyu just had a 3A extra to raise his BV.

Huh? I said he seems like a very good skater. But his jumps are not as good as Hanyu's. It's obvious that they are smaller and that he doesn't have the difficult entrances that Hanyu has. I don't even see how it's possible to deny that.

As for artistry, that's a matter of opinion. And if some people are saying Yagudin = Chan and Goebel = Hanyu in terms of artistry, I could just as easily say that Goebel = Chan and Hanyu = Yagudin. Which is why technical content should be foremost. And since Hanyu has the better jumps and spins than Chan, there's no reason why Chan should be allowed to do one less 3A, no 4S, and not have difficult entrances.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Chan cant even afford to fall once as Yuzuru is on his back

just as predicted, Yuzuru is the No.1 man leading for Sochi
and just realized he is currently ranked No.1 on the World Standings now too

Hah okay continue telling yourself that. Although you adamantly say Gold is the number 1 US lady, so we all know where your head's at.

 

[sky_fly20]

Hah okay continue telling yourself that. Although you adamantly say Gold is the number 1 US lady, so we all know where your head's at.

Yuzu also has another lucky charm
Russian soil is very lucky for him

 

[chuckm]

NOT fair to compare Hanyu to Goebel. Tim Goebel skated without flair--he was wooden, with little or no musicality. With Tim, all his focus was on the jumps.

Hanyu is exactly the opposite and in some respects Chan is more like Goebel than like Yagudin. Not that Chan is unmusical or wooden, just that he is not as expressive as Hanyu. Chan is a blade technician and his focus is on that rather than connecting with the audience. Like Yagudin, Hanyu's focus is the performance for the crowd.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

I'd say Hanyu has better variety to his positions, but Chan has more solid, clean positions and centering. They're both good spinners for various reasons.

How are Chan's positions anything special? They're solid, but that's any reason for +GOE. The speed is alright too, but definitly nothing outstanding. Centering is good, mostly.
Hanyu sometimes has problems with centering, but it's not a general thing. His positions are more difficult than Chan, he has more variety and all of his spins have good speed, his sit spins are really fast. Chan might be a good spinner, but Hanyu is better.

 

[wallylutz]

And to know you are serious about that...
Hanyu is a better spinner than Chan, quite often Chan gets higher GOE on his spins than he should. They're really close in GOE, like it or not.

Of course I am serious because in my opinion of watching them both live and in front of a screen over the years, that has been correct as supported by their head-to-head results this year :

Spins GOE Comparison (eliminating any spins that had obvious downgrades or GOE errors for both skaters)

Skate Canada Int'l 2013

Hanyu

FCSp4 : 0.57 FCCoSp4 : 0.57
CSSp4 : 0.43 FCSSp4 : 0.93
CCoSp4 : 0.57 CCoSp4 : 0.86

Chan

CCSp3 : 0.71 FSSp4 : 1.07
FSSp4 : 0.93 CCSp4 : 0.79
CCoSp4 : 0.93

Hanyu' SP Average : 0.523 or +1.05
Chan's SP Average : 0.857 or +1.71

Hanyu's FS Average : 0.787 or +1.57
Chan's FS Average : 0.93 or +1.86

------------------------------------

TEB 2013

Hanyu

FCSp4 : 0.86 FCCoSp4 : 0.57
CSSp4 : 0.71 FCSSp4 : 0.93
CCoSp4 : 0.71 CCoSp4 : 0.79

Chan

CCSp3 : 0.64 FSSp4 : 1.00
FSSp4 : 1.07 CCSp4 : 0.86
CCoSp4 : 1.00 CCoSp3 : 0.79

Hanyu' SP Average : 0.76 or +1.52
Chan's SP Average : 0.90 or +1.80

Hanyu's FS Average : 0.763 or +1.53
Chan's FS Average : 0.883 or +1.77

---------------------------

GPF 2013

Hanyu

FCSp4 : 1.00 FCCoSp4 : 1.00
CSSp4 : 0.93 FCSSp4 : 1.00


Chan

CCSp3 : 1.07 FSSp4 : 1.14
FSSp4 : 1.00 CCSp4 : 1.00
CCoSp4 : 0.86

Hanyu' SP Average : 0.965 or +1.93
Chan's SP Average : 0.977 or +1.95

Hanyu's FS Average : 1.00 or +2.00
Chan's FS Average : 1.07 or +2.14

Each skater has two of their spins removed from the 3 competitions combined due to obvious errors and/or downgrades to Lv1 such that they have equal number of data points, leaving only spins that do not have obvious errors, therefore more reflective of what they are capable of assuming no error.

Combined SP Average for Spins' GOE

Hanyu : 0.7225 (8 data points) or + 1.45
Chan : 0.9122 (9 data points) or + 1.82

Combined FS Average for Spins' GOE

Hanyu : 0.8313 (8 data points) or + 1.66
Chan : 1.0929 (7 data points) or + 2.19


Based on these data and facts, over 16 data points each this season, Chan has clearly outscored Hanyu in the GOE of Spins with one competition in each's respective home country and one in a 3rd country. Given that Spins have the least amount of GOE per element vs. Lv 4 Steps and most Triple and Quad jumps, looking at the raw GOE contribution on its own may not give us a full picture so I also translate into GOE Gradient to illustrate the differential, allowing a more direct comparison to other non-spin elements. In terms of GOE Gradient, Hanyu's Spins (16 data points), except those that had errors or downgrades to Lv1, averaged a GOE Gradient of +1.555. On the other hand, Chan's, also with 16 data points, had an average GOE Gradient of +1.982 - or about half of a point higher on average per spin element, not a subtle difference. Given that each competition, that is SP + FS have a total of 6 Spin elements, this GOE Gradient differential translate into an average difference of (1.982 - 1.555 ) X 0.50 X 6 = 1.28 On its own, 1.28 doesn't seem like a big deal in a competition, however, you combined it with the obvious GOE differential coming out of Step Sequences, suddenly, you are cutting that theoretical BV advantage of Hanyu's by about half, ignoring the GOE of jumps for now. Now, consider Hanyu has never actually landed a 4S this season, all of sudden that theoretical 6.3 advantage in BV smells like a pie in the sky. This is precisely why Chan will not and should not change his program by adding another Quad in lieu of the 2A - they should let Hanyu keep tumbling on that 4S and Chan should focus on skating a clean program - not missing the 3T at the end of the 4T, or messing up the final spin. Even in Japan, Chan still outscored Hanyu's GOE in spins - in fact, Hanyu botched 2 spins while in Japan but I courteously discounted those as one-off accidents that are not likely to repeat.

The bottom line is you are free to continue to believe that 1+1 = 3 or that Chan received unfairly high GOE in spins vs. Hanyu. It's difficult to understand however why there is such a strong consensus that among the 27 judges who saw them this season so far that the average of every segment, overall competition and all 3 competitions combined all pointed to Chan having a clear edge in the GOE of spins, even while in Japan. If we were to normalize the GOE Gradient of Spins as though they were jumps based on the GOE Gradient given, the difference would have been closer to 2 points of difference in the overall score. That's not a subtle difference by any definition knowing that this came from only 6 elements out of 20.

So yes, of course I am serious because facts support my assertions, as opposed to yours.

 

[wallylutz]

How are Chan's positions anything special? They're solid, but that's any reason for +GOE. The speed is alright too, but definitly nothing outstanding. Centering is good, mostly.
Hanyu sometimes has problems with centering, but it's not a general thing. His positions are more difficult than Chan, he has more variety and all of his spins have good speed, his sit spins are really fast. Chan might be a good spinner, but Hanyu is better.

That's because you are confusing features with execution for GOE. Features are assessed by the Technical Panel for the purpose of assigning Levels. Judges are strictly focused on the Execution, that is why a Tech Panel can downgrade a Spin to Lv1 yet without much of an effect on the GOE if the reason(s) for the downgrade has nothing to do with Execution. If you have just taken a minute to read through Communication 1790 which clearly laid out what the judges are looking for in Spins, you wouldn't be here obstinating that Hanyu's spins have been undermarked vs. Chan's when your claim is categorically false. Here are the criteria as far as GOE is concerned:

Spins
1) good speed or acceleration during spin (Edge to Chan)
2) ability to center a spin quickly (Edge to Chan)
3) balanced rotations in all positions (Edge to Chan, he is more controlled overall)
4) clearly more than required number of revolutions (It depends, varies from competition to competition)
5) good position(s) (including height and air position in flying spins) (Edge to Chan)
6) creativity and originality (Edge to Hanyu)
7) good control throughout all phases (Edge to Chan)
8) element matched to the musical structure (It depends)

Chan leads about 5 to 1 in the various criteria, or about a net of 4 criteria. Empirically, with the exception of GPF, Chan's GOE in spins were also reflective of these differences.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

^ all that this proofs is a very bad case of reputation judging. I didn't even think Chan's GOE for his spins were that ridiculous.
And I guess it's needless to say I'm not agreeing with your assertions of all the single bullets (Chan having the better positions... no comment). Chans spins are average, but certainly nothing that merits +2's or even +3's overall. This judging is a mess.

 

[Kalina]

If GOE is objective, then PCS must be objective as well, it's the same judges after all right? So this means that I can start believing that Yuzuru's skating skills ARE actually better than Kozuka's. Right.

Or that Yuzuru's 3A-2T in the free is actually not so special after all, since Skate Canada's judges seemed to think it warranted a meager +0.57 GOE. No matter that commentators have been raving about it and fellow skater Jeremy Ten went so far as to describe it as 'godly'.

 

[wallylutz]

If GOE is objective, then PCS must be objective as well, it's the same judges after all right? So this means that I can start believing that Yuzuru's skating skills ARE actually better than Kozuka's. Right.

Or that Yuzuru's 3A-2T in the free is actually not so special after all, since Skate Canada's judges seemed to think it warranted a meager +0.57 GOE. No matter that commentators have been raving about it and fellow skater Jeremy Ten went so far as to describe it as 'godly'.

GOE is easier to assess and far more objective. For one thing, technical errors can be easily spotted, most of the time. Short of those controversial edge calls, GOE for the most part has been somewhat easy to follow for the vast majority of viewers. Some of the components are not as obvious and they are also more complicate to mark as well. With GOE, you only have 7 possibilities to work with, from -3 to +3. With PCS, you have to set a benchmark somewhere and it can be difficult to remain consistent to that benchmark when you have 20+ skaters to judge. Calls made by Technical Panels tend to be more controversial in Ladies and Ice dance, and seem to have more influences than GOE. In Men's event, for some reasons, calls are generally not very controversial or as critical as they were in ladies maybe because men tend to make less callable errors than women or simply men have more elements to average out errors such that one bad call is not nearly as bad as it would in Ladies.

 

[NMURA]

If GOE is objective, then PCS must be objective as well, it's the same judges after all right? So this means that I can start believing that Yuzuru's skating skills ARE actually better than Kozuka's. Right.

Or that Yuzuru's 3A-2T in the free is actually not so special after all, since Skate Canada's judges seemed to think it warranted a meager +0.57 GOE. No matter that commentators have been raving about it and fellow skater Jeremy Ten went so far as to describe it as 'godly'.

Kozuka is the #5 man of Japan. He is clearly inferior to Hanyu.

Skate Canada judges are typically home biased. Only +0.57 for Hanyu's 3A-2T which no one else can do. They were so much afraid of Hanyu's talent and wanted to downplay. OTOH, the judges at GPF gave +1.71 to Chan's ugly 3A. Actually his scores are more generous than TEB. In terms of TES, Hanyu will beat Chan anywhere but in Canada with just about same margins. They had so much trust in Hanyu and didn't need to hold down Chan's score.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Yuzu also has another lucky charm
Russian soil is very lucky for him

It's also lucky for Chan, having won COR there last year with one of his highest scoring LPs and having won his first Worlds in Moscow.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Another reason not to call Hanyu the number 1 guy: in the FS he's only successfully done 1/6 clean quad attempts on the GP circuit/GPF this season. Both quads having problems at Skate Canada (1 touchdown, 1 fall), both quads missed at TEB (1 popped, 1 fall). One quad missed at GPF (1 fall).

He's fell in every FS this season so calling him the number 1 guy isn't accurate... I guess he's the number 1 guy if he skates totally clean (which we have yet to see in his FS) or if Chan makes errors like at the GPF. But there's no question that Chan is still the one to beat if Hanyu currently has to rely on Chan making errors and Japanese home ice to place ahead of him.

He's certainly closed the gap though, even if he hasn't skated perfectly.

 

[skateluvr]

He has shown he can win when skating near his best, and if Chan makes errors. It was nice to see Hanyu do that well. And I hope it makes pat realize that he may not have it in the bag at Olympics. But Olys are in Russia, not Japan. Kovtun or Plushenko may surprise-I am glad to see the mens comp. is not a done deal. I do not think the Oly judges would pull a victory for Chan against a Japanese who skates lights out. Denis Ten is from ? where? ( I know where-no fed is my point). But Patrick can be outskated on any given night by a few Japanese men, Kovtun, Javi. If the judging is fair, Patrick may earn silver or bronze. I don't think he'll finish lower than bronze even if he Zambonis the ice and others skate 5 quads. But he was beaten at the GP final. Olympics will be judged harshly, aand he must really earn it with his jumps, not just skating skills PCS.

I hope for steady nerves, as we could see the best mens event ever.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

He has shown he can win when skating near his best, and if Chan makes errors. It was nice to see Hanyu do that well. And I hope it makes pat realize that he may not have it in the bag at Olympics. But Olys are in Russia, not Japan. Kovtun or Plushenko may surprise-I am glad to see the mens comp. is not a done deal. I do not think the Oly judges would pull a victory for Chan against a Japanese who skates lights out. Denis Ten is from ? where? ( I know where-no fed is my point). But Patrick can be outskated on any given night by a few Japanese men, Kovtun, Javi. If the judging is fair, Patrick may earn silver or bronze. I don't think he'll finish lower than bronze even if he Zambonis the ice and others skate 5 quads. But he was beaten at the GP final. Olympics will be judged harshly, aand he must really earn it with his jumps, not just skating skills PCS.

I hope for steady nerves, as we could see the best mens event ever.

I think it could indeed be the best event ever, with many men attempting at least 2 quads and some with 3 quads. Hanyu really has the potential to have the most technically demanding Olympic FS ever, but that 4S has so far failed him this whole season (other than the one he managed to squeak out at Finlandia). Hopefully the GPF win improves his confidence, but that clean skate is something Hanyu still has yet to attain. Chan's camp really should continue to do what they've been doing, maintain a clean competition, with the likelihood of Hanyu making an error in one of his opening quads. If Hanyu goes clean in Sochi, I would imagine he scores above a clean Chan overall due to the technical advantage, but I would hope that if Hanyu falls (or Chan or whoever), they are placed behind a cleaner skater. It's been a while since an Olympic champion hasn't gone clean, although the difficulty has certainly progressed to unprecedented levels.